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Guangzhou Auto Components Forecast Change Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date Hong Kong 28 April 2017 Automobiles & Guangzhou Auto Components Forecast Change Vincent Ha, CFA Fei Sun, CFA Research Analyst Research Analyst 1Q17 results beat on strong Trumpchi (+852 ) 2203 6247 (+852 ) 2203 6130 and JV contribution; maintain Buy [email protected] [email protected] 99% YoY 1Q17 net profit rise thanks to GS8 SUV and strong JV contribution Key Changes Guangzhou Auto (GAC) released its 1Q17 results under PRC GAAP on 28 April. Company Target Price Rating Gross revenue grew by 66.4% YoY to RMB16.9bn, mainly driven by a 67.3% 2238.HK 14.85 to - 16.20(HKD) YoY jump in Trumpchi local brand sales. The company’s net profit also surged by 98.7% YoY to RMB3.8bn on a 37.9% YoY total passenger vehicle (PV) sales 601238.SS 14.10 to - 15.35(CNY) volume growth. To elaborate, GAC’s 1Q17 gross profit margin improved by Source: Deutsche Bank 3.3ppt YoY to 23.8% with better economy of scale. Meanwhile, GAC recorded 1Q17 operating profit of RMB1.9bn (jumped 1.6x YoY), despite the 57.2% YoY Focus stocks increase in SG&A expenses. On the back of 30.2% YoY sales volume growth at Guangzhou Auto (2238.HK),HKD12.10 Buy Price four major JVs (namely Guangqi Honda, GAC Toyota, GAC Fiat-Chrysler and Target HKD16.20 GAC Mitsubishi) thanks to new SUV models, total 1Q17 earnings contribution Guangzhou Auto-A (601238.SS),CNY25.50 Sell from GAC's JVs and associates grew by 76.3% YoY to RMB2.3bn. As GAC’s Price Target CNY15.35 1Q17 net profit accounted for 44% of our original full-year FY17 earnings, we Source: Deutsche Bank consider the results beat our expectation on better-than-expected own-brand Trumpchi operation and higher JV contribution amid hot SUV sales. GAC - monthly PV sales trend Deutsche Bank view - SUV-driven growth staying; maintain Buy on GAC-H (Units) (YoY%) 200,000 200% We raise GAC’s FY17-18E revenue by 5.6-6.9% on higher Trumpchi GS8 sales 175,000 150% mix, and FY17-18 profit by 14.3-14.9% on higher margins and JV contribution. 150,000 We base our TP at 10x FY17E P/E (from 10.5x), and we believe our P/E target is 125,000 100% justified, given 26% FY16-19E three-year fully-diluted EPS CAGR. Our target 100,000 50% 75,000 0% price implies 1.9x FY17E P/BV with sustainable ROE of about 19-20%, which 50,000 we regard as reasonable. We maintain Buy on GAC-H, considering its favorable 25,000 -50% SUV product cycle in FY17E, and we believe that continually strong monthly 0 -100% sales could be a catalyst to the share price. Meanwhile, we maintain Sell on 01/11 07/12 01/14 07/15 01/17 GAC-A given the hefty price premium to GAC-H. Key upside risks for GAC-A Source: Company data are rapid auto sales and margin expansion, driven by successful new models. Key downside risks for the GAC-H are weaker-than-expected sales, and slower- Earnings key changes than-expected margin improvement. 2017E 2018E 2019E Sales volume (incl. JVs) (units) Figure 1: GAC – quarterly operational and financial trend (in PRC GAAP) New 1,957,823 2,060,685 2,177,425 Old 1,941,728 2,049,600 n.a. 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 % Chg 0.8% 0.5% n.a. Passenger vehicle sales (units) 331,280 399,087 416,738 500,278 456,882 Revenue (RMBm) New 64,911 70,244 75,900 YoY% 37.4% 23.8% 38.9% 16.4% 37.9% Old 60,727 66,529 n.a. % Chg 6.9% 5.6% n.a. Gross revenue (RMBm) 10,144 11,285 12,958 15,030 16,885 Profit contribution from JVs (RMBm) New 6,304 6,598 7,003 YoY% 88.0% 86.4% 72.7% 43.6% 66.4% Old 5,620 6,049 n.a. Gross profit margin (%) 20.5% 21.9% 19.2% 18.8% 23.8% % Chg 12.2% 9.1% n.a. Net profit (RMBm) Associates' and JVs' earnings (RMBm) 1,302 1,851 1,422 1,160 2,295 New 9,952 10,987 12,175 YoY% 130.8% 36.9% 24.7% -26.7% 76.3% Old 8,704 9,559 n.a. % Chg 14.3% 14.9% n.a. Net profit (RMBm) 1,927.0 2,054.4 1,627.2 679.6 3,828.6 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates YoY% 263.7% 68.4% 71.0% -55.6% 98.7% Source: Company data ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Distributed on: 28/04/2017 16:48:26 GMT The views expressed above accurately reflect the personal views of the authors about the subject companies and its(their) securities. The authors have not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE VISIT http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr; MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 0bed7b6cf11c.
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