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Pgnig: Accumulate (Reiterated) PGN PW; PGN.WA | Gas & Oil, Polska

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Pgnig: Accumulate (Reiterated) PGN PW; PGN.WA | Gas & Oil, Polska Wednesday, July 27, 2016 | update PGNiG: accumulate (reiterated) PGN PW; PGN.WA | Gas & Oil, Polska High FCF Guarantees Sustained Dividends Current Price PLN 5.50 Target Price PLN 6.06 PGNiG has generated a total return of 13% since our last update in April, outperforming the WIG20 index by 19 points, and at the Market Cap PLN 32.45bn current level the first-quarter positive earnings surprise is fully Free Float PLN 9.47bn priced in. That said, we still see upside potential in the Company ADTV (3M) PLN 65.18m even despite a disappointing preliminary second-quarter report, and we maintain an accumulate rating for PGN with the price target Ownership raised to PLN 6.06 per share. We have upgraded our FY2017 outlook for the Power Generation business and the E&P business which will State Treasury 70.83% more than offset the slowdown in Trade and in Distribution. According to our calculations, PGNiG will end 2016 with a net debt Others 29.17% close to zero even after this year's acquisitions, and with the 2017- 2018 FCF projected at PLN 1.9bn this leaves a thick cash cushion to Business Profile sustain dividends. PGNiG is still at risk of becoming involved in PGNiG is Poland’s largest natural gas company with furthering the government's energy policy, but at this time there are annual sales exceeding 14 billion cubic meters. The no specific plans on the table (the potential acquisitions of EDF Company produces 4.5bcm of gas and 1.2mmt of Poland assets or Petrobaltic should not significantly hurt crude oil per year (including from international deposits, most notably the Skarv project in shareholder value, and the Norway pipeline plans are a remote Norway). A key business for PGNiG is distribution prospect). effected through its own transmission infrastructure. As well as natural gas, PGNiG is also a producer of Solid 2016 outlook electricity and heat. Even after a PLN 0.68bn impairment loss incurred in Q2, PGNiG will have achieved 55% of our full-year EBITDA forecast in H1 2016 (59% on an PGN vs. WIG adjusted basis). The strong earnings growth this year is driven mainly by 7.00 Trade (capitalizing on a high retail tariff through the end of the year) coupled with Distribution (old tariff extension with a higher cost base, higher PLN WACC, and lower volumes). The Generation segment as well has delivered 6.50 upside surprises thanks to lower costs of coal and higher prices of heat. PGNiG has a strong outlook ahead in H2 2016 in our view as adverse regulatory changes are likely to be offset by rising prices of crude oil and 6.00 natural gas, benefitting E&P. 2017 EBITDA may top PLN 6bn 5.50 PGNiG is set to experience a slowdown in Trade in 2017 due to higher costs of natural gas purchases, especially LNG, and in Distribution its profits will be affected by new tariff rules. On the upside, the E&P segment is poised for 5.00 PGN an acceleration next year driven by higher sales prices, a lack of impairment, slightly higher volumes, and cost savings, underpinned by WIG 4.50 favorable base effects (PLN 0.48bn hedging losses in H1 2016) and higher Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 costs of the LNG terminal operation. Further, with 40% of the gas and oil sales now done on an arm's length basis, PGNiG's sales margin is protected against commodity price volatility. Finally, a resolution of the Gazprom dispute next year could add as much as $0.6 billion to PGNiG's 2017 earnings. Target Price Rating Company new old new old PGNiG 6.06 5.55 accumulate accumulate Current Target Upside / (PLN m) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Company Price Price Downside Revenue 34,304.0 36,464.0 32,667.0 33,300.2 36,697.3 PGNiG 5.50 6.06 +10.1% EBITDA 6,345.0 6,080.0 5,669.8 6,172.1 6,873.4 Forecast revision 2016E 2017E 2018E EBITDA margin 18.5% 16.7% 17.4% 18.5% 18.7% since last update EBIT 3,843.0 3,290.0 3,039.1 3,583.5 4,265.3 EBITDA +6% +7% +5% Net profit 2,823.0 2,134.0 2,157.0 2,408.6 2,874.9 Net profit +17% +12% +14% DPS 0.15 0.20 0.18 0.22 0.25 P/E 11.5 15.2 15.0 13.5 11.3 P/CE 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.5 5.9 Analyst: P/BV 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 EV/EBITDA 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.3 4.5 Kamil Kliszcz +48 22 438 24 02 DYield 2.7% 3.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.5% [email protected] Valuation Using DCF analysis and relative valuation, we set our nine- (PLN) weight price month price target for PGNiG at PLN 6.06 per share. Relative Valuation 50% 5.69 DCF Analysis 50% 5.66 price 5.68 9M target price 6.06 DCF Valuation DCF Model Assumptions: ° We added PGNiG’s investment in EuRoPol Gaz ° Cash flows are discounted to their present value as (PLN 0.7bn) to equity value calculations. of the end of July 2016. Equity value is calculated ° 2020 forecasts factor in a new hydrocarbon tax (the based on net debt at year-end 2015 plus dividend effective tax rate in Poland is expected to increase and a PLN 0.5bn investment each in SEJ and PGG. to a target level of 30%). ° 2016 earnings estimates are adjusted for ° The sales and EBITDA margin used to calculate PLN 0.68bn impairment. FCFTV to terminal value are as forecast for FY2025. ° Macroeconomic assumptions are as set out below. ° We assume that FCF after FY2024 will grow at an ° The depreciation and amortization expenses annual rate of 2%. The risk-free rate is 3.5% and projected for FY2025 are higher than CAPEX, beta is 1.1. prompting a D&A revision to PLN 3.0bn when calculating terminal value. Additional assumptions: 2015 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P Price of Brent crude (US$/Bbl) 54 45 65 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 Weighted avg. price of German gas 243 168 190 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 (USD/1000 m3) Weighted avg. price of Russian gas 306 192 230 270 300 300 300 300 300 300 (USD/1000 m3) Weighted avg. wholesale tariff in Poland 1187 993 995 1119 1190 1188 1194 1200 1206 1212 (PLN/1000 m3)* PLN/USD (annual avg.) 3.77 3.95 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 EUR/PLN (annual avg.) 4.18 4.34 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 PGNiG’s gas sales volume (bn m3) 13.6 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 Gas imports (bn m3) 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 Natural gas output – domestic (bn m3) 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Crude oil output (mmt) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Non-regulated gas sales volume (bn m3) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Crude oil output – intnl. (mmt) 0.62 0.43 0.44 0.53 0.50 0.44 0.41 0.32 0.26 0.21 Natural gas output – intnl. (bn m3) 0.62 0.63 0.68 0.89 1.05 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 * Defined as average unit revenue from sales of natural gas (simplified due to tariff variations depending on type of customer) **Sales to end users (ex. trade) 2 DCF Model (PLN m) 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2025+ Revenue 32,667 33,300 36,697 39,126 39,523 39,935 40,267 40,622 40,998 41,275 41,275 change -10.4% 1.9% 10.2% 6.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% EBITDA 6,350 6,172 6,873 7,229 7,145 7,260 7,232 7,232 7,234 7,154 7,154 EBITDA margin 19.4% 18.5% 18.7% 18.5% 18.1% 18.2% 18.0% 17.8% 17.6% 17.3% 17.3% D&A 2,631 2,589 2,608 2,750 2,714 2,735 2,752 2,782 2,826 2,827 3,024 EBIT 3,719 3,584 4,265 4,479 4,431 4,525 4,480 4,450 4,408 4,326 4,129 EBIT margin 11.4% 10.8% 11.6% 11.4% 11.2% 11.3% 11.1% 11.0% 10.8% 10.5% 10.0% Tax on EBIT 857 967 1,245 1,335 1,583 1,597 1,540 1,494 1,455 1,383 1,307 NOPLAT 2,862 2,617 3,021 3,144 2,848 2,928 2,940 2,956 2,952 2,943 2,823 CAPEX -3,502 -3,755 -3,130 -3,024 -3,031 -3,035 -3,026 -3,024 -3,021 -2,997 -3,024 Working capital -200 -45 -241 -172 -28 -29 -24 -25 -27 -20 -20 FCF 1,791 1,406 2,258 2,698 2,503 2,599 2,642 2,688 2,730 2,754 2,803 WACC 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.5% Discount factor 96.5% 88.5% 81.2% 74.5% 68.3% 62.7% 57.5% 52.8% 48.4% 44.4% 44.4% PV FCF 1,728 1,244 1,834 2,010 1,710 1,629 1,519 1,418 1,321 1,223 WACC 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.5% Cost of debt 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Risk-free rate 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Risk premium 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Effective tax rate 23.1% 27.0% 29.2% 29.8% 35.7% 35.3% 34.4% 33.6% 33.0% 32.0% 31.6% Net debt / EV 0.7% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 10.0% Cost of equity 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% Risk premium 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Beta 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 FCF after the forecast period 2.0% Sensitivity Analysis Terminal value 43,422 FCF growth in perpetuity Present value of terminal value 19,277 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Present value of FCF in the forecast period 15,636 WACC +1.0 p.p.
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