SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM? Kati Piri a UNITED EUROPE in a TURBULENT WORLD Margot Wallström Cas Mudde Ken Gude

# 3 Winter 2016

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SPECIAL COVERAGE THE US ELECTION: DEMOCRACY IS NOT JUST ABOUT VOTING

FOCUS THE NEW EU GLOBAL STRATEGY

Featuring contributions from: Joseph Nye Edgar Morin Julian Priestley Maroš Šefčovič Christian Deubner Nathalie Tocci Antonio Missiroli SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM? Kati Piri A UNITED EUROPE IN A TURBULENT WORLD Margot Wallström Cas Mudde Ken Gude

NEXT ECONOMY NEXT SOCIAL NEXT ENVIRONMENT NEXT DEMOCRACY Self-employed workers Confronting insecurity Europe can be the leader Primaries: the ideal way in the gig economy in the digital economy of a just transition to choose a leader?

Quarterly: Dec-Jan-Feb www.progressivepost.eu #03 Contents

CONTRIBUTORS p.3 FOCUS FOREWARD EDITORIAL > Si vis pacem, para bellum p.45 > A United Europe in a turbulent world p.4 PERSPECTIVE > Edgar Morin: “Europe needs a pathfinder” p.47 SPECIAL COVERAGE: ANALYSIS > Western democracy in an existential crisis p.5 > Foreign policy: no longer a subject of division? p.50 > Will Trump be the trigger for an EU army? p.6 > Soft power, the DNA of the European Union p.53 > The helplessness of the left allows > Old words, new views p.55 the triumph of the right p.7 ESSAY > When the forgotten strike back p.9 > The EU-Turkey deal is a solution p.57 > Geert Wilders in the wake of Trump’s victory p.11 but it has to be implementedForeign policy: > Counter-media culture – politically decisive p.13 no longer a subject of division? in the US and in Austria? > The 'R's of Swedish feminist foreign policy p.59 > Trump, symbol of populism p.15 > A fight for girls' right to education p.61 > A wake-up call for Europe p.17 EUROPE WATCH > The anti-establishment challenge for Social p.19 > Millennials and peace in a globalised world p.63 Democratic parties BEYOND EUROPE > Trump’s victory: some lessons p.21 > India’s European window of opportunity p.65 for European progressives > Brazil and the EU: a shared global vision? p.66 > What Trump’s victory means for Africa p.23 > Is President Trump a geopolitical p.25 opportunity for India? > The Iran Deal is in jeopardy, and other disasters p.27 INSPIRATION > Donald Trump and the transatlantic alliance p.29 PORTOFLIO p.67 > The global order and the future p.31 CARTOON p.72 of American influence TO WATCH p.73 TO READ p.74 TO THINK p.75 TO COOK p.78 DEBATES HISTORY > The journey of bringing Europe to the people p.33 in the digital economy NEXT SOCIAL > Confronting ‘insecurity cubed’ P.35 in the digital economy NEXT ECONOMY > Protecting social rights of self-employed P.37 workers in the gig economy NEXT DEMOCRACY > Primaries: the ideal way to choose a leader? P.39 NEXT ENVIRONMENT > Europe can be the leader of a just transition P. 41 > A Just transition: no jobs on a dead planet P.43

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 2 CONTRIBUTORS

Hanno Mikko Frédérique Edit Mario Jeremy Burmester 7 Majander 9 Masson 15 Inotai 17 Del Pero 21 Shapiro 29

Joseph Juilan Anthony Carlo Maroš Benjamin Nye 31 Priestley 33 Painter 35 D'Ippoliti 39 Šefčovič 41 Denis 43

Christian Edgar Nathalie Staﬀan Antonio Kati Deubner 45 Morin 47 Tocci 50 de Mistura 53 Missiroli 55 Piri 57

Margot Evernice Evin Constantino Celso Zisis Wallström 59 Munando 61 Incir 63Xavier 65 Amorim 66 Kardianos 69

3 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 EDITORIAL A UNITED EUROPE IN A TURBULENT WORLD

by Massimo D’Alema, FEPS President, former Prime Minister of Italy The boundary between external and internal security has disappeared. It is inconceivable to ﬁght terrorism in Europe whilst turning a blind eye to the actions of the Islamic State in the Middle East and thereby failing to tackle the organisation’s roots, funding and support. Security is therefore, or should be, a common space on which Europe can build peace, starting with the neighbouring regions that surround us.

n awarding the support the government of Natio- live with a permanent conflict that Nobel Peace Prize nal Unity now in place and broaden will impact international security, to the EU, the Nobel its representativeness. our security. committee stated: Only unity will allow us to carry out O On the Eastern Front, our international responsibilities. “The stabilizing part played by Europe must ensure that In foreign policy, and amid all the the EU has helped to transform most Putin respects the agree- increasing uncertainty about the of Europe from a continent of war ment on Ukraine. Moreo- future of the transatlantic alliance, to a continent of peace”. ver, we must cooperate the EU urgently needs to forge AFTER TURMOIL with Russia to create greater strategic autonomy and to Following the accession of Croatia peace and stability in the Middle move forward with greater secu- COMES ACTION, in July 2013, tensions and memo- East. In Syria, we have to admit rity and defence cooperation and ries of the war still remain very that Russia occupies a role left coordination among its members. AND OUR present for the survivors, although vacant by Europe and the United Therefore, we appreciate the work stability has increased in the Balk- States. It is necessary to end the led by the High Representative of UNION MUST ans. The process of integration into Assad dictatorship and assure the Union for Foreign Affairs and the European Union would be a guaranties to non-Sunni Muslims. Security Policy, Frederica Moghe- ACT TOGETHER step towards calm. The truth is that Syria is built up rini, and we hope that all Euro- on multiple ethnic and religious pean countries will show solidarity OR RISK groups. The chaos in the Middle behind her to cement Europe as a Responsibility East cannot make us forget the major player on the international IRRELEVANCE to our neighbours fate of Palestinians at the heart stage. The challenges are many, of the conflict between the West yet the potential of a unified Eu- We also have a big responsibility and the Islamic world. Indeed, ropean voice beyond our borders in the South, across the Mediter- the Netanyahu government des- is of paramount significance too. ranean, regarding the destabilisa- troyed the prospect of peace and After turmoil comes action, and tion of Libya that we contributed a two-state solution. If we let our Union must act together or to. Even if it is insufficient, we must things pass, we also accept to risk irrelevance.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 4 SPECIAL COVERAGE

SPECIAL COVERAGE

WESTERN DEMOCRACY IN AN EXISTENTIAL CRISIS

in democratic political debating Donald Trump’s election is a part that Donald Trump won the pre- rules. According to Donald Trump of an existential crisis of western sidential race. And they are en- emocracy is a system “Politics is a nasty business!”. democracies. Rising inequalities demic not only in Donald Trump’s set up to work for eve- Immediately after his election was and social exclusion, conse- rhetoric, but also that of others ryone. But it will only confirmed, it is significant that quences of the deep financial and such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Er- work for democrats European leaders called for res- economic crisis, affect swathes doğan, Benjamin Netanyahu and Dif they invest in building, stren- pect for the values that western of people in western societies. Victor Orbán. We hope that fur- gthening and forging a culture of democracies stand for: freedom, Neither answers nor solutions ther legitimacy will not be given democracy as a set of principles. respect of law, dignity of people have been delivered. We have to to the extreme right next year in As we have been reminded in se- regardless of race, sex, religion, accept that we are increasingly the French presidential elections. veral recent events, democracy is skin colour and political convic- facing the threat of authoritarian not just about voting. The election tion. Never before have such leadership. This is not just a ques- of Donald Trump served to sanc- preconditions been demanded tion of political correctness: dis- tion statements that were at odds from an American President for criminatory attitudes have now with the very principle of civility working together. been given legitimacy by the fact

5 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE WILL TRUMP BE THE TRIGGER FOR AN EU ARMY? by Vassilis Ntousas After a bruising 18-month election cycle, the election of Donald Trump as the President of the USA sent shockwaves across the world. Trump sensed that for the ﬁrst time in living memory there was greater fear of the American institutional establishment within the country’s borders than outside, and he exploited that fear.

his led to a result that dangerous is the gradual normali- organic to purely transactional. navigate through the uncharted can arguably be called sation of Mr Trump’s bigotry and If implemented, proposals such waters of a more turbulent world the loudest rejection his vindictiveness towards critics, as abandoning commitments to during a Donald J. Trump presi- of the establishment now to be amplified by the office NATO could upend the rules-based dency. As Federica Mogherini, the Tin modern US history. For the he will hold and the power that liberal international order upon Union’s High Representative for next four years, the same office comes with it. which the US international modus Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, occupied by Franklin Roosevelt operandi has been built since World subtly but aptly stated in reaction and Abraham Lincoln will now be War II. This could lead to the ero- to the results: held by a man who resorted to A break with sion of the ability of both “[the transatlantic] ties are deeper bigotry, demagoguery, arrogance, the political class Europe and the US to act than any change in politics. and disdain for democratic norms in a concerted manner, We'll continue to work together, in order to get elected. The standing of the US beyond from counter-terrorism rediscovering the strength of Europe”. its borders will surely suffer from coordination to trade It will take some time before the Mr Trump’s sheer unpredictabi- cooperation, from Russia to the contours of what this means for lity and unapologetic aversion to Middle East. America and the world become nuance. The attractiveness of the clear, but the consequences of the President-elect’s virulently na- Nonetheless, the uncertainty on dystopia that will likely arise will be tionalist elegy for America’s lost how reliably the continent can now both dire and plenty. greatness might have won him the depend on the US to guarantee election. But the country’s foreign its security could also create an If past is prologue, the historical policy could now potentially be- opening for the EU to finally set zigzagging of progress will resume come a source of volatility rather its own house in order. While this in the US With the Republicans now than stability, reversing a decade will be difficult, the recent decision holding all branches of power and of internationalism, and swapping by all 28 Member States to move in a position to solidify a conser- the primacy of Realpolitik with towards greater defence coope- vative majority on the Supreme that of Innenpolitik. ration suggests that this might be Court for the next generation(s), the opportunity for the Union to the economic achievements of Especially for Europe, whose inter- assume its collective President Obama are expected national engagement has for a long global responsibility. to be curtailed. Many of the past time passed through a transatlan- > ABOUT decades’ emblematic social ad- tic lens. Trump's revisionism could Finding intelligent and intelligible Vassilis Ntousas is the FEPS inter- vances such as the Roe v. Wade ru- signify the relegation of the tran- answers as to how this can be national relations policy advisor. ling risk being overturned. Equally satlantic relationship from being done will be key for the EU to

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 6 SPECIAL COVERAGE

THE HELPLESSNESS OF THE LEFT ALLOWS THE TRIUMPH OF THE RIGHT

by Hanno Burmester Five hypotheses on the election of Donald Trump:

regarded this as purely insulting ourselves of: No country can ever and as pushing the limits of what escape its ugly past. White supre- is permissible. For them, the un- macy, misogyny, homophobia, and thinkable had become a reality. xenophobia are historical constants Some celebrated Obama's elec- that run much deeper in the white I. tion as a historic triumph (inclu- population of the US than tole- ding myself). For many others it rance, emancipation and equality. The response to the election of meant personal shame and humi- This ugliness needs a political Donald Trump is intense. Fear, liation. This change in perspective home. If it has no home, it will disgust, sadness, and a feeling can't make Trump's election any build itself one. of acute threat. less painful. However, it does put In Germany this is no different. In Admittedly, his election is only the result of the vote somewhat the past, this ugliness had a cosy a breach of taboo if we see our into historical context. home in the form of the political own perspective on the world as White America took revenge. The parties CDU (Christian Democratic definitive. The utter dismay being pendulum of history oscillated Union) and CSU (Christian Social felt today is similar to what mil- violently in one direction eight Union). Xenophobes, chauvinists lions of Americans felt during the years ago and is now swinging to and homophobes could count on election and re-election of Barack the other extreme. them for decades, albeit often Obama to the White House. A tolerated only in silence. Today, black professor, trained at hy- this is no longer the case – at least per-elitist Harvard, left-liberal all II. in many parts of the CDU. the way, politically active since his As a result, it is hardly surprising that youth especially in the poorer Afri- The election of Trump brought those segments of the population can-American neighbourhoods of something to mind that we as that define their identity through the Chicago: people in many milieus Germans have to keep reminding devaluation of others built themsel-

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ves a new home. The AfD (Alterna- IV. tive für Deutschland) digs up those facets of ourselves that most of us Clinton's centrist model is being would prefer to dissociate from fo- phased out. The center-left has THIS rever. But as long as we pretend that come to an end in the US, too. there are no dark sides, we will not People have grown weary of a left UGLINESS be able to effectively deal with them. that has come to solely defending and preserving instead of NEEDS searching for the possible archi- III. tecture of a new era. A POLITICAL The post-war order of Western de- Trump is not a lapse. The next US mocracy is coming to an end. Over HOME. IF IT HAS elections will presumably produce the years, it has failed to adapt to a similarly radical candidates. First, changing society. What is worse is NO HOME, because the country has now been that it knowingly accepted the fact divided into constituencies so ho- that millions of people prepared IT WILL mogeneous that extreme polari- themselves for permanent precarity zation seems almost inevitable. with no chance of advancement. A BUILD Second, because the spirit of di- left that allows this is – somewhat rect democracy has developed a rightly so – easy to discredit. ITSELF ONE. misguided life of its own. Democracy is only readily com- It is a popular misconception of prehensible as the best choice for the left-green movement that all if it takes care of everyone. If direct democracy is the better it fails to do so, democracy itself democracy by default. Today, illi- becomes negotiable – whether who want to know where those beral parties, from the AfD to the we approve or not. record-breaking tax revenues Swiss People's Party, all peddle a are actually ending up. People way of thinking that has its origins who want to know why politicians within the political left. Referen- V. are tearing each other apart over dums ennoble anti-constitutional two euros more or less on child voting results, and the call for Trump's election is just a taste of benefits, while mental illnesses the people's voice promises the what might come. It is not unrea- are spreading like an epidemic. blessing of a racially and culturally listic for Marine Le Pen to win the People who want to know why homogeneous country. French presidential elections. If combustion engines and coal re- After Brexit, who can still argue in that happens, Europe will break main sacrosanct, while climate all seriousness that complex issues up in a conflict of values, and that change and smog-induced ca- can be forced into a rigid yes-no might just destroy our continent's sualties go on forever. They ask referendum? After the election of democracy along the way. why financial speculation and Trump, does the political world still Now, the left must deliver for all inheriting money is less heavily assume that direct, open primaries those who believe that our existing taxed than labor-based income. ensure a democratic process? system has exhausted all possibi- They wonder why public gyms and We need to reassess. Voter turnout lities. Otherwise, only the illiberals pools are being shut down while is not the only basis for the demo- will offer them a place. And I'm the world's richest corporations cratic quality of a process. After all, not just talking about the disen- pay taxes in the range of one hun- > ABOUT the process is not an end in itself. franchised, the uneducated, and dredth of one percent. Hanno Burmester is a policy fel- What is more important is the final the poor. I am also talking about We need good answers now. low at Berlin-based think tank Das result of the election and whether it the well-educated, high-earning Otherwise, the right, that provides Progressiv Zentrum. takes public interest into account. people in my environment. People bad answers, will continue to win.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 8 SPECIAL COVERAGE © European Union 2015 - EP. Union 2015 © European

| BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - Despite all the diﬃculties, Finland continues to put faith in the European Union.

WHEN THE FORGOTTEN STRIKE BACK

by Mikko Majander “The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.” Thus promised Donald Trump in his ﬁrst speech after becoming the President-elect of the United States.

9 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE

uch rhetoric sounds very MP, cheered openly the election deadlocks are welcome, but any familiar to Finnish ears. result that expressed the kind of deals on great power spheres “Forgotten people” was one worries and politics she shares: on of influence – hard or soft – are sof the favourite metaphors used by immigration and putting your own unacceptable by definition. the grandfather of Finnish populism people first, as well as free trade The second aspect concerns trade Veikko Vennamo in the 1970s when scepticism. Following the Brexit- policy which naturally is an all-Eu- challenging the establishment. vote, Huhtasaari saw Trump’s vic- ropean issue. For a small export It was always a rocky ride for Venna- tory as another step towards the driven country like Finland it is a mo’s Rural Party and its heirs, party collapse of the European Union. grim future perspective to see pro- splits and losses of electorate fol- Such views are rare and extreme in tectionist trends strengthening in lowing relative successes, until the Finnish politics and public opinion international trade. In economic Finns Party made a breakthrough in overwhelmingly favoured Hillary terms, “America first” may have the 2011 general elections. The high Clinton in the final duel, although emerged foremost in reaction to tide of populism in an all-European she failed to raise Obama-like en- the Chinese challenge, but what manner was confirmed four years thusiasm. Many among the left sup- will be its implications for the tran- later. The Finns Party became the ported Bernie Sanders, while the satlantic community? second biggest group in parlia- conservatives pinned their hopes ment and entered a centre-right on other Republican candidates. coalition government. Trump's effect on Finnish populism Small power realism Timo Soini as In regard to Finland’s domestic Foreign Minister But history and geography have policies and power balances, it is taught the Finns to conduct small unlikely that Trump’s victory will From his position of strength the power realism and they will no give any greater boost to local po- unchallenged party leader, Timo doubt adjust to the new leadership pulists. There is hardly an outsider’s Soini chose the post of Foreign in Washington. However, Trump’s promise left to give for the “for- Minister instead of managing the campaign speeches raise two gotten people” as the Finns Party finances of the struggling country. concerns above others, one directly has already shared governmental The more power and responsibility and another in a more indirect way. power for a year and a half. And he has gained, the more moderate First, the security landscape according to the opinion polls, his tone of politics has become. In around the Baltic Sea is in a state aligning with the establishment international relations he fits well of flux. Russian behaviour in Crimea has cost Timo Soini’s party half of in Finland’s mainstream foreign and Eastern Ukraine has made its electoral support. policy that ultimately is defined by the defence of the Baltic States a But the national picture is hardly the President, Sauli Niinistö. pressing issue, and even the Swe- enough in the integrated Europe. Although Soini has acknowledged des and the Finns are reflecting on Despite all the difficulties, Finland Vennamo as his great mentor, he the future of their current militarily continues to put faith in the Eu- maintained a good poker face non-aligned status. The question ropean Union, seeing in strong when commenting on the rise of is, will NATO’s commitments in institutions and in legitimate, just Donald Trump. Soini explained the region change in some way policies the guarantee that small that his job is to represent the na- under Trump’s rule, and how would nations are fairly heard and treated. > ABOUT tional interest of Finland, and that that affect Sweden’s and Finland’s The populist upsurge – nationalist Mikko Majander is an adjunct relations with the United States are security policy choices? by nature and transnational as a professor of political history at very important, no matter who the The key factor is of courwse Tru- trend – surely challenges this ap- the University of Helsinki and the President in the White House is. mp’s Russia policy. Dialogue with proach. Even the best Europeans director of think tank the Kalevi Not everybody in the Finns Party Putin and efforts to negotiate have to make sure that there always Sorsa Foundation. played it so cool. Laura Huhtasaari, peaceful solutions to present remains a fall-back position.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 10 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Minnister-president Rutte © Minnister-president

| THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS - Rutte faces a challenge from Geert Wilders for Catshuis in 2017.

THE SORCERER AND THE APPRENTICE? GEERT WILDERS IN THE WAKE OF TRUMP’S VICTORY

by Cas Mudde Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US presidential elections has led to an explosion of media speculation about a “populist surge” around the globe with eyes focused speciﬁcally on Euro- pean countries slated for national elections in 2017.

11 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE

opinion polls were largely wrong on An authoritarian both Brexit and Trump strengthens discourse radical right parties in their critique and dismissal of them in their own This is not to say his inﬂuence will election campaigns. When experts be limited. Almost all Dutch par- will argue that the radical right is ties have taken an uncooperative hile France and Ger- underperforming in the polls, Le position on the EU’s refugee dis-

many attract most Pen and Wilders can argue that tribution plan and Prime Minister attention, for ob- these same experts didn’t predict Rutte in particular has recently wvious reasons, the Netherlands the victories of Brexit and Trump. adopted a discourse that is in- WHILE FEW, deserves a special place because creasingly rooted in authoritaria- IF ANY, of Geert Wilders, the unofficial nism and nativism. Moreover, the leader of the loose global “Coun- The perfect storm Dutch party system is one of the EUROPEANS ter-Jihad” movement. of the Greek crisis most fragmented in Europe, with no single party gaining more than WILL VOTE Like most established radical a quarter of the vote. This means Socio-economic anxieties right parties in Europe, the Party that the next (Rutte) government FOR A LOCAL for Freedom (PVV), of which Wil- will probably be even weaker than To be clear, the success of Donald ders is the leader and only official the current one, which just lost its RADICAL Trump (and Brexit) is both simi- member, spiked in the polls last parliamentary majority, and will be lar and diﬀerent to that of popu- year, profiting from a perfect confronted by an emboldened PVV RIGHT PARTY list radical right parties in Europe. storm created by the Greek cri- as the strongest opposition party. Broadly speaking, they proﬁt from sis, the so-called refugee crisis, BECAUSE OF a combination of economic an- and various terrorist attacks in xiety, political dissatisfaction and nearby countries. Having gained THE OUTCOME racial resentment. In essence, it a mere 15 seats (out of 150) in the is the socio-cultural translation 2012 parliamentary elections, OF THE US of socio-economic anxieties that the PVV had been stuck around boost the radical right. But Trump 20 seats until the refugees crisis ELECTIONS, is more than a radical right leader; catapulted it to highs of over 40 he was also the candidate of the by the beginning of 2016. TRUMP’S mainstream right party and many non-radical right people voted for But like other European radical VICTORY DOES him out of party loyalty, having pre- right parties, early 2016 seems to ferred a mainstream right opponent have been its peak, at least for the GIVE THE to Hillary Clinton, who is broadly moment, and the PVV has been despised in Republican circles. losing support rapidly since. On EUROPEAN average polls have Wilders’ party While few, if any, Europeans will at 25 seats, a few seats behind the RADICAL RIGHT vote for a local radical right party conservative VVD of Prime Minister because of the outcome of the US Mark Rutte. Moreover, the rela- > ABOUT A WELCOME elections, Trump’s victory does give tionship between Rutte and Wilders Cas Mudde is an Associate Pro- the European radical right a welco- is at an all-time low, and both are fessor at the School of Public and NARRATIVE me narrative advantage. It allows trying to make the elections into a International Affairs, University them to argue that they, rather than two-horse race. Consequently, Wil- of Georgia, USA, and co-editor of ADVANTAGE. the established parties, are the ders’ chances of joining, let alone the European Journal of Political true voices of the current zeitgeist. leading, the next Dutch govern- Research. Moreover, the fact that experts and ment are miniscule.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 12 SPECIAL COVERAGE

COUNTER-MEDIA CULTURE POLITICALLY DECISIVE IN THE US AND IN AUSTRIA?

by Natascha Strobl, Julian Bruns, Kathrin Gloesel Across Western democracies, right-wing groups are following similar media strategies, claiming to be alternative and deﬁning themselves in opposition to the establishment or the mainstream. It seems to be working.

in the media strategies of both

Donald Trump and Norbert Hofer. uch has already been said about the outco- How the Trump SOCIAL MEDIA me of the presidential campaign relied elections. Expoun- on right-wing media IS A POLITICAL Mding Banalities such as “listening to THE people”(never deﬁning who After Trump became oﬃcial no- BATTLEGROUND THE people are) was Trump's big minee, his team immediately advantage. But like Laurie Penny made use of the mailing list of the THAT SHOULD points out in the New Statesmen, Republican National Committee, THE working class is also female, which contained about six million NOT BE black, Hispanic, lgbtq – and the supporters. Trump had marke- left simply cannot abandon them. ting entrepreneurs in his team set UNDERESTIMATED In both the USA and Austria, right- up a digital fundraising database wing extremists have learned how to and a social media campaign. The IN ITS IMPORTANCE. create and use social media in their whole operation was called “Pro- favour. We can see similar traits ject Alamo” and it involved about

13 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE

a hundred people. By using nega- ment and in 2016 declared it In Austria the right-wing media Trump, Hofer, the FPÖ and many tive campaigning, Trump’s team “the platform for the alt-right”. network is an integral part of each other actors of the extreme right aimed at liberals, young women In addition to that, Breitbart. FPÖ [Freiheitliche Partei Öster- have one thing in common: they and African Americans, discou- com also approves of right-wing reichs] campaign. Blogs and online have realised that creating filter raging them to vote for Clinton, extremist groups in Europe such newspapers like unzensuriert.at or bubbles in social media is cru- especially in Florida. This strate- as the 'Identitarians'. Wochenblick are very blunt about cial for success. Therefore, they gy seems to have worked. In August 2016, Trump made their intentions. For example, they created their own media-chan- Bannon his campaign manager. publish articles questioning the nels, which they claim to be Additionally, Trump could count This was a clear signal to the health of the opponent and with “alternative”, “rebellious” and on a parallel sphere of media: political far-right in the US. Breit- crude allegations against refugees. “oppositional”. To other political websites publishing in his inte- bart now expects to profit from They do not provide evidence but actors such as progressive par- rest. One magazine that openly Trump’s victory to set up offices claim it to be “secret information” ties, it is very difficult to reach endorsed Trump was “Breitbart in France and Germany, where from someone “within”. Party lea- people who are already caught News Network”, a website foun- it will openly support existing der Strache then shares the ar- in filter bubbles. Therefore, ded in 2007 by Andrew Breitbart, right-wing parties like the Alter- ticles on facebook with comments progressives have to find new who wanted to break with esta- native für Deutschland. like “interesting” or with his infa- strategies to cope with post- blished media and planned to set mous facebook catchphrase “for truth campaigns and right-wing up opposing narratives regarding your information”. It gets shared counter-media. Social media politics. After Breitbart's death How the Hofer wildly. By the time it is corrected is a political battleground that in 2012, his successor Stephen campaign relies by serious media, there is another should not be underestimated Bannon shifted Breitbart’s align- on right-wing media story published. in its importance.

> ABOUT > ABOUT > ABOUT Natascha Strobl studied political Kathrin Gloesel studied Gender Julian Bruns studied Scandi- science and Scandinavian studies History and Politics and now navian studies, German studies in Vienna and Bergen. She is a does research on right-wing and philosophy in Cologne and researcher, author, blogger and extremism and political educa- Bergen. He is a PhD-candidate political activist. tional work. and an author.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 14 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Gary Knight

| LONDON, UK - Jeremy Corbyn has managed to create trust with a message of hope.

TRUMP, SYMBOL OF POPULISM

by Frédérique Masson Identity politics, nationalist slogans, spreading fear of the other, portraying foreigners as a threat, division of people, regressive remarks on women and gender equality, denial of climate change. The reaction to Donald Trump from this side of the Atlantic has often been disbelief.

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rather than just being about one how can progressives stop the rise man, this is a national project: the of populist movements? promise that closed borders will improve quality of life; the use of differences in culture or beliefs as The fight-back a way of crystallising fears felt at global level; the use of minorities In order to break the impression as a scapegoat for unemployment of political elitism, we must do figures. These are the same the- everything to bring in new, young mes used by extremists across political leaders, who are more THE WAY Europe today, and notably by the representative of today's society. Front National in France: leaving TO COMBAT the European Union, amalgama- June 2017, the Parti Socialiste will ting Islam and radicalism, rallying be the first major party in France MISTRUST IS together those in social and eco- to have equal numbers of male nomic difficulty against refugees. and female candidates, diverse BY CREATING in class and ethnicity. In terms of communication, politicians must TRUST. A break with use language that closes the dis- the political class tance between politicians and citizens. French politics has gone It is clear that it is hardship and from being bipartisan (alterna- economic inequality, in the United ting left/right) to tripartisan. The States as elsewhere, that has lead framework of traditional political to the development of populist parties has to be left behind. As parties. The objectives of these in other European countries, we voters are the same in both France must support movements such and the United States: to break up as the Belle Alliance Populaire, a the established power, to change coalition of political parties inclu- the political landscape, to throw ding the PS, but also trade unions, out the political class. Although charities, and students, against not as part of a populist movement, the movements that want to break Icelanders voted in 2010 to break the unity of the Republic and des- with the ‘traditional’ political class troy our social model. Finally, an by choosing Jon Gnarr, an actor essential point: the way to combat known for his clown acting, to be mistrust is by creating trust. Bernie Mayor of Reykjavik, in a protest Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn have et, on Wednesday the vote against economic difficulties. shown that it is possible to offer 9th of November 2016, In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ), hope, and created genuine loyalty the world learnt that failed to win the presidential elec- amongst supporters. We need to he had been elected tion on 22 May 2016 after the elec- be able to defend our ideas, loud YPresident of the United States tions were declared void. The vote, and clear, and not be afraid to of America. How can a country, which will take place again on the stand up for the values that set > ABOUT whose greatness is built on mul- 4th of December, will be observed us apart from the populist mo- Frédérique Masson is the Deputy ticulturalism, diversity, freedom, closely to to see if the populist trend vements, rather than playing into Secretary of the French Socialist and its influence throughout the continues. Eyes will then be on the the hands of populist leaders in an Party in charge of elections since world, yield to alarmist protectio- French presidential election next attempt to catch the attention of June 2015. nism and isolationism? Because, May. Faced with this global trend, the electorate.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 16 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Klara Z © Klara

| BUDAPEST, HUNGARY - Members of the extreme-right Jobbik party strike on the day of Hungarian National Revolution.

A WAKE-UP CALL FOR EUROPE

by Edit Inotai Donald Trump's triumph is like shock therapy for European (and global) progressive forces. Who would have thought the billionaire clown, the reality hero could make it to the top?

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to think that a charismatic leader of Trump’s campaign promises or gender equality, press freedom can solve all the problems of the should be taken seriously and to or solidarity have become abstract world - especially if he is given a free what extent experienced Republi- slogans for many of our compa- hand, not restricted by the com- cans - mostly keen on free trade triots, especially when facing very plicated structures of democracy. and security cooperation with Eu- specific daily difficulties like unem- Mind you, populists emerge not rope - will be able to “tame” the ployment, insecurity, poverty or only on the right, but also on the hot-tempered President. It seems lack of opportunities. A democratic left, offering similarly oversimpli- commitment should not be taken fied answers to people's concerns. for granted. Democrats now have to Matteo Renzi may fall in Italy and fight for those values again, explain ut who would have the protest party Five Stars could what they really mean, why they are thought Britain votes emerge as the major political force WHO WOULD important - even in everyday life, itself out of the EU? Or, in parliament. Beppe Grillo for PM? not just in highbrow terms. Social on a somewhat personal Why not? It may look like the trend HAVE EXPECTED democrats and conservatives have Bnote, who would have expected of the 21st century. The times of to redefine politics (more ideology), that the most potent opposition predictable - or responsible? - poli- THAT THE reshape their rhetoric (straighter to Hungarian Prime Minister Victor ticians are over. Although we benefit statements) and instead of lamen- Orbán's government, after being from globalization, we wear the MOST POTENT ting, fight back. in power for more than six years, same clothes, watch the same mo- would be the radical right-wing vies, get connected via Facebook OPPOSITION TO Shock therapy like Trump’s election party, Jobbik - while left-wing de- or Twitter to create a real global can contribute to the renewal of mocratic parties are still clueless village, it seems we still want to HUNGARIAN PM democratic politics - or lead to about how to win back voters. It have our national heroes (emphasis the fall of it. is time to face the new reality. The on “national”) who will protect us VICTOR ORBÁN'S most unimaginable things do hap- from the evil global forces. pen in front of our eyes. It may GOVERNMENT, improve Marine Le Pen's chances of winning in France. The German An uncertain AFTER BEING AfD [Alternative für Deutschland] future ahead can easily make it into the Bun- IN POWER FOR destag next year. Voters think it is With the presidency of Donald no longer embarrassing to vote for Trump, transatlantic relations may MORE THAN SIX someone with harsh rhetoric and become a journey through trou- a populist agenda. If the US voters bled waters. TTIP is a lost cause, YEARS, WOULD elected a controversial, dividing the global climate deal is in se- figure, what's wrong with the Kac- rious danger, the future of NATO BE THE RADICAL zynkskis, Orbáns, Le Pens and the uncertain. On the other hand, a other demagogues? renewed American isolationism RIGHT-WING may push Europe into a direction of further integration - if led by PARTY, JOBBIK? The easy solutions reasonable politicians with vision. > ABOUT A withdrawal of US armed forces Edit Inotai is an editor and foreign After all, it is so easy to find scape- or just a weakening US support of policy analyst of the Hungarian goats in minorities (or refugees, as NATO in Europe may offer a chance that it is high time for intellectuals business weekly Figyelő and in the case of Hungary), denounce for a European common army or at and mainstream politicians (and Senior Fellow at the think-tank critical thinkers as traitors, and stir least a strengthened cooperation media) to climb down from their Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integra- up emotions rather than promote in the field of security. However, ivory towers. Important values like tion and Democracy in Budapest. rational debate. It is so tempting it is stillearly to predict how many democracy, human rights, racial

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 18 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Mikeledray

| ANAHEIM, USA - Anti-establishment sentiment is present across Western democracies.

THE ANTI ESTABLISHMENT CHALLENGE FOR SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTIES

by Robert Ladrech The anger felt towards the political class in advanced industrial democracies by large parts of the population must no longer be underestimated.

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two issues, economic insecurity as a ‘wake-up’ call for progressive red government in 2012 and 2013 and immigration. The supporters parties. For the Dutch Labour Party plummet to all-time lows. The SPD of these parties have been descri- (PvdA), French Socialist Party (PS), and the PvdA also must deal with bed as the ‘losers’ of globalization, and the German Social Democra- electoral threats from their left, or the ‘left behind’, feeling not tic Party (SPD), polls and recent the die Linke in Germany and the only economically insecure but electoral history demonstrate that Socialist Party in the Netherlands. frustrated by what they are told is their political position has been Perhaps Trump’s election will be an unfair system favouring immi- precarious for some time. the long-awaited catalyst for Eu- grants, thus pitting ‘native born’ ropean social democratic parties citizens with newcomers, and fo- Each country’s party system is to fashion a popular response to menting resentment and a focus diﬀerent, but there are some com- the feelings of insecurity among on identity. Listening to Marine mon trends that Trump’s election their core electorate. Le Pen recently, she now cloaks exacerbates. In France and the herself as leader of a European Netherlands, Wilders Freedom Perhaps the long-term viability anti-globalisation movement. Party and Le Pen’s Front National and renewal – intellectually as have not only been riding high in well as politically - of social de- y the end of 2017, ge- public opinion polls for the last mocracy will now take centre- neral elections will A push for the right-wing several years, but local and regio- stage. Allowing the radical left and have been conducted nal elections (and national in the right to appropriate the mantle of in three key European These are, of course, the same Netherlands) demonstrate that opposition to neoliberalisation Bstates, namely the Netherlands sentiments that fed into the 1930’s they are popular with voters. In has undermined the belief that (March), France (May and June) rise of fascist movements, and France, it is now a foregone conclu- another Europe is possible under and Germany (September). demagogic party leaders have ex- sion that Le Pen will be on the se- social democratic leadership. A critical theme that links the ploited contemporary media to cond ballot for the presidency in political situation in these coun- push their messages, whether it is May 2017. In Germany, the rise of tries is the growing strength of Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party Alternative für Deutschland takes extreme right-wing parties riding (PVV) in the Netherlands, Marine votes from both the SPD as well a wave of anti-establishment Le Pen and the Front National in as from the Christian Democrats. political reaction. Although the France, or even Frauke Petry of extreme right does not have a the Alternative für Deutschland Anti-establishment monopoly on anti-establish- (AfD) in Germany. The election of and anti-globalisation ment sentiment – witness Syri- Trump in the United States, fol- za in Greece – it does challenge lowing on the heels of Brexit, has By attempting to identify their social democratic parties in the cheered politicians such as Marine parties with an anti-establishment upcoming elections in the Nether- Le Pen because it may point to and anti-globalisation sentiment, lands, France and Germany. If the the ‘normalisation’ of this political the extreme right has portrayed success of the Brexit referendum phenomenon. In this regard, the social democratic parties as part in the United Kingdom and the social democratic parties in the of the Establishment, ‘fellow election of Trump to the US pre- Netherlands, France and Germany travellers’ with the centre-right sidency impart a lesson, it is to have a particularly diﬃcult task as agents of neo-liberalisation avoid underestimating the anger in the run-up to their elections and subsequent job insecurity. of large swathes of the population next year. The perception is not helped by > ABOUT in advanced industrial democra- the fact that the PvdA and SPD Robert Ladrech is Professor of cies toward the political class, Politicians from Jeremy Corbyn of are junior members of a left- European Politics at Keele Uni- including social democrats.The the British Labour Party to Sergei right, or grand coalition, in their versity, UK and author of Euro- manipulation of this anti-esta- Stanishev of the Party of Euro- respective countries. Both the peanization and National blishment sentiment by extreme pean Socialists have reacted to PvdA and SPD have seen their Politics (2010). right-wing parties has focused on Trump’s election by referring to it vote in polling since they ente-

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 20 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Robert Cicchetti © Robert

| NEW YORK, USA - Donald Trump's victory has sent shockwaves across Europe. TRUMP’S VICTORY: SOME LESSONS FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVES

by Mario Del Pero Trump’s unexpected victory has sent shockwaves across Europe. It’s a sort of Brexit on ste- roids, both for what it symbolizes and for its potential repercussions on Europe’s politics and the transatlantic relationship itself.

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partial and at worst erroneous, chose him, and his radical, nativist and risks obfuscating more than message, for a plurality of other clarifying. In a nutshell: reasons: party affiliation (there o Trump got more or less the was no Republican diaspora as WHEN IT same votes as Romney in 2012 hoped and predicted); identity - in (and he will probably lose the this case racial-identity - politics; COMES TO popular vote). mistrust of the opponent, in an o Clinton failed to mobilize the election where the negativity DEMAGOGUERY, broad, multifaceted demo- ratings of the two candidates cratic coalition of 2008 and were unprecedented. A REAL 2012. Despite that, the vote confirmed the rigid biparti- DEMAGOGUE san divide existing today in the Lessons for Europe United States, the high level of WILL polarization and the diminishing Are there lessons for Europe, and mobility between two increa- for Progressive forces in Europe, INVARIABLE singly impermeable camps. aside from avoiding mono-causal, o A clear factor was turnout, parti- and often consolatory, explana- OUTSMART cularly in some decisive counties tions of a more complex – and, in rying to imagine what of the de-industrialized Midwest, part, peculiarly American – phe- A CONVERTED Trump’s foreign po- where Trump built his success. nomenon? Three quick answers licy will look like is a o According to exit polls, the gap can be offered.The first is to avoid ONE. complex, perhaps at in the white vote has been broad engaging the other side on its thisT stage futile (and vertigo-in- (21 points, 58% went to Trump, own territory and accepting a ducing) exercise. Were he to im- 37% to Clinton), more or less degraded and insubstantial poli- plement just a portion of what he at the same level of 2012 (20), tical conversation. When it comes has promised, the world would be but much larger than 2008 to demagoguery, a real dema- facing rapid implosion. But that (12). Can it be the “Obama ef- gogue will invariably outsmart will not happen, and on foreign fect” – i.e.: the convergence of a converted one. Lesson two: policy – more than domestic is- the unimaginable, and often address a sense of insecurity that sues – the Trump administration vicious, reaction of parts of is pervasive and real. And which is could end up being less radical (and America to his election and the not to be found only in downtrod- destabilizing) than what we fear. disillusionment of many electors den neighbourhoods of former with Obama? Highly probable, steel towns in northwest Indiana Examining and interpreting Tru- although more data are needed. or in some oxycodone-infested mp’s victory, identifying its main o Trump did better than Romney or rural community in Kentucky. Last drivers, is instead a useful exer- McCain among low-income vo- but not least, choose better can- cise that offers some important ters (under $30,000), but still lost didates, aware that the current lessons to European progressive 41 to 53 to Clinton. The two were populist and anti-political mood forces. The common interpreta- more or less even among high will not disappear soon and it’s tion is that of a radical break with or super-high incomes. Trump the least propitious for figures that the past, catalysed by widespread built his victory, therefore, by can be identified with the esta- > ABOUT economic insecurity that Trump outpolling Clinton among voters blishment. Like it or not, for what Mario Del Pero is Professor and the Republicans effectively with median, or slightly higher, she was and represented, way of International History at the exploited. This reading – accor- incomes (between 50,000 and more than for what she said and Institut d’études politiques/ ding to which the “losers of glo- 100,000 dollars). proposed, in this specific histori- SciencesPo of Paris. His research balization” have propelled Trump Economic factors alone, then, do cal juncture there was no worse focuses on the history of US Fo- to the White House – is at best not explain Trump’s success. Voters candidate than Hillary Clinton. reign Relations.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 22 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Christopher Penler © Christopher

| NEW YORK, USA - An America led by a president who is openly against gay marriage is unlikely to try to stop the trend of African leaders opposing gay rights. WHAT TRUMP’S VICTORY MEANS FOR AFRICA

by Arnold Wehmhoerner Donald Trump’s victory came as a shock to democrats in Africa. They had held up the American political system as a paragon of democracy and can’t understand how this candidate is appealing to an American electorate.

fricans expect so- and good governance is falte- state-owned Herald newspa- interests. This means that Africa m e t h i n g b e t t e r ring, African democrats will now per rejoiced in the defeat of the is looking towards an uncertain from a “first-world” have a tougher fight for more “warmonger” Hillary Clinton. future in its relationship with the country and a po- democracy and against racism. However, very little is known about new president. But based on Apulation that is better educated It is unsurprising that some of Trump’s position on Africa. The his remarks during his election than the majority in Africa. At a the continent’s questionable continent just seems not to be campaign, Africa needs to worry. time when the commitment of leaders rushed to congratulate on his radar because he is an in- Trump believes that trade deals African leaders to democracy the president-elect. Zimbabwe’s sular president focused on US are weighted against the US. The

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new administration may revise the rists across the globe, and in Africa Change and similar strategies to ring. It suits most African leaders African Growth and Opportunity for Boko Haram and Al Shabab. solve global climate problems. This to have at the top of the most Act (AGOA) which is designed His promised tough tactics in the would have long-term catastrophic powerful country in the world a to give African countries easier “War of Terror” would probably be consequences for Africa because man who thinks along their lines access to US markets by scrapping counterproductive: studies show its small scale farmers are hardest of populism and autocratic rule. It import duties on certain goods. that abuses committed against hit by drying soils. is the time for progressive move- Under the act exports from Africa civilians are likely to push people ments and civil societies in Africa to the US have now reached $4.1 towards terrorism. South Africa and other African to keep the idea of democracy and billion, which makes it a vital eco- countries just formally withdrew good governance alive. In such a nomic lifeline for the continent. from the International Criminal situation it would not make sense Court by notifying the United Na- to look for help from autocratic tions. They claim the court is biased leaders of the BRIC countries Reduction of foreign aid AFRICA IS against Africa. How can the US now (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). oppose such a move when it is not a Rather, the European Union could Trump is not a fan of foreign aid. LOOKING signatory to the Rome Statute that serve as a model, a union that is He may reduce America’s exten- created the international court and based on democracy, multilatera- sive aid programme. Left-leaning TOWARDS AN when its leader wants to maintain lism and solidarity across borders US donors provide wide-ranging Guantanamo Bay? and ethnic lines. In that respect grants to African NGOs. These UNCERTAIN the EU has much in common with funds are likely to be reduced or African states; both have to be re-directed to conservative orga- FUTURE IN ITS Minority rights based on compromise and rejec- nisations.A reduction of aid to and tion of exclusiveness. Will the EU trade with Africa would automati- RELATIONSHIP Most African leaders do not sup- be able to fill this role? cally increase China’s influence in port gay rights. Some countries Africa. Trump has pledged to make WITH THE NEW like Uganda even persecute homo- the US “great” again. This may sexuals. Even South Africa voted to override his isolationist tendencies PRESIDENT. scrap a United Nations gay rights and convince him to increase US watchdog. An American adminis- support for Africa. Republican BUT BASED ON tration under the leadership of a presidents have always been more man who is openly opposed to gay prone to intervention. He will likely HIS REMARKS marriage certainly will not try hard follow this line not just as far as to stop this trend. Life for gays in trade and aid is concerned but es- DURING HIS Africa will become more difficult. pecially with regard to the “War of African states were created by co- Terror”. Based on his Islamophobic ELECTION lonial powers with little regard for tendencies he has said he would tribes and ethnic compositions. allow torture and wants to keep CAMPAIGN, African leaders have to deal with Guantanamo Bay open. One has these complex foundations to build to fear that the “War on Terror” AFRICA NEEDS coherent nations. This can only be will be intensified with increased done by being conciliatory and collateral damage and less TO WORRY open to compromise. Policies along thought given to the protection of tribal lines and confrontation are human rights. bound to lead to internal conflicts. Those African leaders who base A hard-line “War on Terror” com- their policies on populist tribal in- > ABOUT bined with his rhetorical attacks on It is feared that the new adminis- terests and on exclusiveness may Arnold Wehmhoerner is the Muslims could become the most tration would sabotage the UN feel encouraged by Trump’s victory. FEPS advisor on Southern Africa. effective recruiting tool for terro- Framework Convention on Climate The moral compass lost its bea-

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 24 SPECIAL COVERAGE © CC Government ZA Government © CC

| HANGZHOU, CHINA - Trump's foreign policy could juggle existing relations between BRICS countries.

IS PRESIDENT TRUMP A GEOPOLITICAL OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIA?

by Klaus Voll The changes in the web of international relations brought about by the new president could present India with the chance to take on a new leadership role.

of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. This also holds true for the majority of the 3.3 million Indian Americans. Altogether ﬁve Indian n India, public support Americans - the highest number during the American elec- ever - have been elected into both tion campaign has been houses of Parliament, all Demo- I overwhelmingly in favour crats. The Indian government, 25 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE

and Prime Minister Narendra Modi ted American strategy or to fill the under Trump are seen in India as nies, as he has said he would, this in particular, will be pragmatic in expected vacuum. another good opportunity, in that could have a negative effect on the their approach to this new situa- Russia will lean less towards China Indian IT industry. tion. The USA is India's leading and cooperate less with Pakistan, foreign trade partner. Former creating changes in the Middle According to Shyam Saran, a for- Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal East that could benefit India. mer Foreign Secretary and ar- predicts that the current dyna- Here a coordinated partnership chitect of the Indo-US Nuclear mic of bilateral relations will slow FROM AN between India, the EU and Britain Deal, the strategic community down in the immediate future. could be envisaged. in India is confident that in view India will have to learn about the INDIAN of the consensus about good new personnel, who will be largely A statement from former Ambas- bilateral relations and a “stren- unknown. Nirupuma Rao, a former PERSPECTIVE sador Rao was telling: “Trump gthening of the strategic relations Foreign Secretary and ambas- came across during the campaign with India”, no negative tenden- sador to Washington, noted that MUCH WILL as having a much more rational cies are to be expected with the “the American President-elect and less prejudiced approach to new administration. is generally not acquainted with DEPEND UPON the situation in Syria and Russian the salient details of the India-US involvement in the region, and it is There are similarities between strategic partnership.” TRUMP'S hoped that his advent to office will the Hindu-nationalist NDA-go- see more collaborative, well-rea- vernment's economic and social RELATIONSHIP soned policy approaches and policies and what can be expected Geopolitical implications dialogue with Moscow to defeat from Trump. Therefore it is to be of the Trump Presidency WITH CHINA, the Islamic State instead of just expected that in India there will be pursuing the prospects of regime less criticism of Trump's domestic Substantial geopolitical changes PARTICULARLY change in Damascus.” politics and a greater focus on his are expected under Donald future foreign policy. Trump, who, in his political style IN VIEW OF THE Others have suggested that Tru- and some of his opinions, is quite mp’s election could have indirect similar to Narendra Modi. From SHARPENING implications for Pakistan, in that an Indian perspective much will Trump could pull Putin away from depend upon his relationship with DIFFERENCES Chinese premier Xi Jinping, and China, particularly in view of the thereby ruin Pakistani ideas of a sharpening differences between BETWEEN INDIA Beijing-Moscow-Islamabad axis. India and China. AND CHINA. Since Trump is against the 'US Economic implications pivot to Asia', this would permit China to assert itself more in The prospect of protectionist po- the Western Pacific and allow it licies being put in place by Trump to expand faster into the Indian C. Raja Mohan, director at Car- are only partly seen as directed Ocean. This would be contrary negie India, has pointed out that against India. It has been noted to the strategic vision built with Trump’s election presents a rare that India is not necessarily ready Obama for the Asia-Pacific and opportunity for Delhi to expand for major free-trade agreements, Indian Ocean regions, which was its own influence and agency in and that the country could benefit > ABOUT supposed to counter Chinese the Eurasian region, rather than geopolitically from the negative Klaus Voll is an advisor for FEPS muscle-flexing. being the ‘lynchpin’ of the US economic effects that American on South Asia and leading Euro- pivot to Asia, and indeed become protectionism could have on pean analyst on India's domestic If this does happen, India must a leader in its own right. China. That said, if Trump does and foreign policies. either try to influence the expec- Improved relations with Russia start to fine outsourcing compa-

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 26 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Lev Radin © Lev

| NEW YORK, USA - It is still unclear what Trump's foreign policy will actually look like. THE IRAN DEAL IS IN JEOPARDY, AND OTHER DISASTERS

by Ken Gude America is still in shock over Donald Trump’s surprise victory on November 8th. We must now attempt to assess what a Trump administration foreign policy would look like. The obvious place to start is trade, but two other areas of intense interest for Europeans may come up more quickly: the Iran nuclear deal and the visa waiver program.

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position to the Iran nuclear deal. Muslims from entering the United Congress have traditionally been Trump has said he will “renego- States lack any detail on how they pro-trade. They can read polls too, tiate” the deal and ask Congress would be accomplished. Less pro- however, and its extremely unlikely to impose new sanctions on Iran. minent was his suggestion in March that TTIP, TPP, or any other trade When the Iran deal was put before that “it’s time to stop” the visa wai- deal gets through any time soon. Congress in 2015, every Republican ver program, and it is easy to see Predicting a Trump administra- voted against it. The reality that how that could be implemented. tion is a guessing game. He has the deal has been implemented, While no Congressional Republi- never held elective office before, sanctions have been lifted, Iran has can has, to my knowledge, recom- lacks even a basic idea of how our dismantled its nuclear program, mended completely scrapping the government works, has proposed and frozen Iranian assets have been visa waiver program, Congress did polices that upend decades of returned, does narrow Trump’s enact new restrictions just last consensus, and has offered few options somewhat. Trump can, year. In Congressional hearings details of how he would actually do however, direct his administration on that measure, many Republi- it. Given all these uncertainties, it to re-impose some sanctions. Just can members indicated that they is best to focus our early attention two days after Trump’s election, were not finished examining the on areas in which he is aligned one of his most ardent Republican program, and in a Trump adminis- with the Republicans who control foes, Sen. Lindsey Graham, said, tration it could be on the chopping Congress. The urgent priority is to “Trump has been right about the block. European governments may prevent Trump from unravelling the Iran deal, it needs to be renego- have less ability to influence this Iran deal and ending the visa waiver tiated. I’m going to create leverage issue than on the Iran deal, but program. More fights will lie ahead, for him.” Much has been made of they can make clear how much but this is where to start. rump has offered so Trump’s experience as a negotia- revenue is associated with the ease few details on his po- tor, looking for every advantage, with which most Europeans can licies that it’s nearly and Graham is trying to help him enter the United States. And I say impossible to accura- gain that leverage. this partially in jest and partially in telyT predict exactly what a Trump sadness at the reality that he has administration will do. Certainly, such unprecedented conflicts of Trump’s admiration for Russian Europe to stand up interest, Europeans should point President Vladimir Putin is dee- for the deal out to the president-elect that ply troubling. It’s likely that Pre- fewer business and holiday tra- sident-elect Trump will pursue But that cuts both ways. European vellers to the United States will warmer relations with Moscow, governments supportive of the Iran assuredly mean fewer guests for but that is a position that is deeply nuclear deal must make clear, im- Trump hotels. opposed by most Republicans, mediately, that Iran has complied even his own Vice President. We with the terms of the deal and they can have more confidence in pre- have no intention to participate in Trade deal uncertainties dicting the Trump administra- any renegotiation nor impose new tion’s policies in areas in which sanctions. If European govern- Opposition to current American Trump is more aligned with his ments are clear and firm that they trade deals has been a centre- Republican colleagues. won’t go along, it undercuts any piece of Trump’s platform. It seems leverage Trump is trying to gain, impossible that Trump would pur- and he may back away from any sue any new trade deal, especially New Iran nuclear meaningful attempt to reopen the given a recent poll of Republicans > ABOUT deal negotiations? deal. Leaving aside for the moment by Pew that showed only 24% Ken Gude is a Senior Fellow with how controversial they are, Tru- viewed free trade as a good thing, the National Security Team at the In no policy area is Trump more in mp’s proposals to build a wall on while 68% did not. But with Trump, Center for American Progress. sync with Republicans than op- the US-Mexico border and ban all you never know. Republicans in

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 28 SPECIAL COVERAGE © Drop Of Light © Drop

| WARSAW, POLAND - The Nato alliance could be under threatTrump doesn't believe the US has special relationships with countries because they are democracies.

DONALD TRUMP AND THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE

by Jeremy Shapiro

Trump’s view of allies and trade represents an existential threat to the transatlantic alliance. That threat comes less from the inconsistent policy positions he has taken in the campaigns than from some of his core beliefs that stretch back decades.

29 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE

with a blistering attack on Euro- security guarantees. However, the deals with authoritarian leaders pean irresponsibility in defence: current model also reflects a his- that can better support American torically sound belief economic and security interests. “The blunt reality is that there will that the United States be dwindling appetite and patience in does have a stake in Trump’s views on allies, on trade, the US Congress, and in the American European conflicts, and on authoritarian leaders are body politic writ large, to expend and cannot ultimately fundamentally at odds with the increasingly precious funds on behalf stand aside from them. decades-old principles of tran- of nations that are apparently unwilling satlantic relations. His volatile ransatlantic relations to devote the necessary resources [...] Trump, in contrast, temperament and his tendency to have long been predic- to be serious and capable partners in believes in walls and ridicule allies means that he would table, even boring. Even their own defence.” To this he added in oceans. In his view, bring a new and damaging tone to their dysfunctions and that there is a “real possibility America can and transatlantic diplomacy. Tdisputes are ritualised and repeti- for a dim, if not dismal, future for should stand aside tive ― something that makes life the transatlantic alliance.” from problems in other It would be the height of folly to as- difficult for analysts and journalists regions. For example, sume that winning the presidency looking for new or exciting material. But comparing Obama and Trump Trump doesn’t believe that the US will change Trump’s core beliefs or But it has served the interests of the shows what is new about the Re- should offer assistance on the Eu- finally subdue his ego. transatlantic partners fairly well. publican nominee. Previous US ropean refugee crisis, because “we In geopolitics, repetitive, boring efforts to equalise the security have our own problems”. Unlike any disputes at summit meetings are burden, including Obama’s, have US president since Harry S. Tru- in fact an amazing and historically always been based on the notion man, Trump doesn’t believe that rare achievement. that America’s best partners are America has special relationships democracies, that its own prospe- with countries because they are But now, for the first time in genera- rity is derived from a broad global democracies. After all, he sees tions, the very concept of “alliance” system of trade and investment, democratic nations as inherently is being called into question by and that Europe’s security must be Donald Trump, who has been clear protected — by Europe if possible, that he views the alliance in instru- and by the United States if neces-

mentalist terms. Unless the alliance sary. Previous post-war American is radically reshaped, Trump claims presidents have explicitly looked that America will simply walk away for a more equitable partnership TRUMP, from Europe, leaving it to deal with with Europe, but they believed that its problems on its own. Europe’s security and prosperity IN CONTRAST, were a core interest of the United Of course, a desire for more equi- States and have therefore been BELIEVES IN table burden-sharing has been pre- wary of abandoning Europe and sent in American foreign policy for leaving it to its own devices. WALLS AND decades. President Obama’s pivot to Asia reflected the notion that This bargaining approach, in which IN OCEANS. > ABOUT Europe was not capable of dealing America’s commitment to Europe Jeremy Shapiro is a research di- with its own problems and that the is never questioned, has weake- rector at the European Council excessive American military pre- ned US leverage. Implicit in the on Foreign Relations. He has pre- sence in Europe had led Europeans current approach is the assump- viously worked as a senior advisor to neglect their own forces. tion that the United States will on European and Eurasian affairs take up whatever slack Europe weak. Instead of being lambasted to the US State Department during US Secretary of Defense Bob Gates leaves behind. And so Europeans by weak democratic allies, he be- the Obama administration. ended his tenure in office in 2011 end up free-riding on American lieves he can formulate individual

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 30 SPECIAL COVERAGE © CC The White House White The © CC

| WASHINGTON, USA - Carter, Clinton, Obama and Bush all presided over a period of American hegemony.

THE GLOBAL ORDER AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN INFLUENCE

by Joseph Nye Trump's victory suggests that many US voters feel disaﬀected with globalisation. But the USA will retain its global inﬂuence, both through hard and soft power.

31 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 SPECIAL COVERAGE

Guns vs butter vs taxes the answer. Maintaining networks, working with institutions, creating Some allies worry whether the US norms for new areas like cyber can afford to sustain the liberal eco- and climate change create the soft nomic order, but their concerns are power needed to complement our misplaced. The US currently spends hard power resources. Leadership about 3.5 per cent of its GDP on is not the same as domination. defense and foreign affairs. As a There have always been degrees portion of GDP, the US is spending of leadership and degrees of in- less than half of what it did at the fluence during the seven decades peak of the Cold War years. Alliances of the American liberal order since are not bleeding us. The problem World War II. Now with slightly less is not guns vs. butter, but guns vs. preponderance and a more com- butter vs. taxes. Unless the budget plex world, American provision of is expanded by a willingness to raise global public goods, in cooperation taxes, defence expenditure is locked with others, will be crucial to US in a zero-sum trade-off with impor- well-being as well as to the world. tant investments such as domestic repair of education, infrastructure, and spending on R&D. And the US ince World War II, remains among the most lightly the United States has taxed of all the OECD countries. sustained alliances The US will remain the world’s lea- and institutions that ding military power in the decades Sconstitute a liberal international to come, and military force will order. Now, the rhetoric of Donald remain an important component Trump in the 2016 election cam- of American power. A rising China paign has caused anxiety about and a declining Russia frighten their the future of that order. It would neighbours, and American secu- be a mistake, however, to read rity guarantees in Asia and Europe too much about long term trends provide critical reassurance for the in American public opinion from stability that underlies the prospe- the heated rhetoric of the election rity of the liberal order. Maintaining campaign. The information revo- alliances is also an important source lution has strengthened globali- of influence for the United States. zation. Unlike the 1930s (or even the 1980s) there has not been a reversion to protectionism. In fact, Soft power still important > ABOUT the US economy has increased Joseph Nye is a professor at its dependence on international At the same time, military force is a Harvard University and widely trade. And a September 2016 poll blunt instrument. Trying to occupy regarded as one of the most in- by the Chicago Council on Foreign and control the domestic politics fluential thinkers on American Relations found that 65 per cent of nationalistic populations in the foreign policy. He developed the of Americans say that globali- Middle East revolutions is a recipe concept of soft power, and has zation is mostly good forthe US for failure. And on many transnatio- worked with the US State Depart- The label “isolationism” is not a nal issues like climate change or fi- ment during both the Clinton and very helpful description of current nancial stability or norms to govern Obama administrations. American attitudes. the Internet, military force is not

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HISTORY © Communautés européennes 1950-1959. européennes Communautés ©

| ROME, ITALY - The treaty of Rome was signed on March 25, 1957. THE JOURNEY OF BRINGING EUROPE TO THE PEOPLE

by Julian Priestley

The European Parliament began as a brief genuﬂection to the idea that the Commission be in some way accountable to a parliamentary body. Over the last 60 years it has grown into a real contender for political power. A far cry from the purely consultative body with little more than a theoretical right to censure the Commission described in the treaties.

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ince the first stirrings lentlessly, now to just over 42% anti-European, populist parties of parliamentary de- (although the 2014 elections almost everywhere) is part of a mocracy, politicians saw only a slight fall from the more general rejection of insti- have shown talent, 2009 figure). And this mirrors tutions, traditional politics, au- Simagination and perseverance in an overall decline of support for thority and expertise. The rise of the accretion of political influence European integration and trust the hurlatori is a global pheno- for representative institutions. in EU institutions. These obser- menon but its consequences are And so it has been at the Euro- vations require much qualifica- particularly toxic for European pean Parliament, with, sixty years tion before conclusions may be institutions which are inevitably on, the full range of powers one drawn. National figures throw up perceived as remote, complex would normally associate with a stark differences. Voter turnout and in their communication often fully-fledged parliament in any of has actually increased in some flatfooted. In the short run in our national systems. So, before countries. In 2014 it seems that this climate there is not a great the first elections, significant bud- where the ‘presidentialisation’ deal that the EU can do to bridge getary powers were won after an (spitzenkandidaten) of the cam- this gulf between voters and ‘the epic struggle, and used to the hilt paign was most intense, voter Brussels elite’. It is first and fo- to shape budgets; consultation numbers were up. And there remost for the member states on legislation became in relatively appears to be an East/West di- to ensure that public informa- quick succession compulsory and vide. Turnout in member states tion about the EU and education general. This led to sharing in which joined in 2004 and 2007 about its institutions at last get decision-making with ministers is abysmally low. Indeed when some priority. But at least Brussels and, finally, equality of co-deci- only just over 13% of Slovakians should do everything that it can sion across the board. In Treaty take part there would appear do. The Parliament has taken making, a vanguard of MEPs put to be serious questions not just digital communication seriously their foot in the door, and finally about European but about Slo- and communicates as effectively flung it wide open. No significant vakia’s democracy. What is clear as it can, given all the institutional international agreement or acces- is that many Europeans do not constraints. But the European sion now escapes parliamentary feel represented by ‘their’ Parlia- political parties need to play the oversight. The appointment of the ment: their MEPs are often largely motor role for politicising Europe Commission has become essen- unknown (not true in Germany or that their political groups have tially a parliamentary affair, with, even in France, certainly the case played in Parliament. In particular in 2014 - the ultimate lèse majes- in the UK); their role is obscure. the parties should be given the té - the Parliament using the EP Broadly speaking very few Euro- resources to wage campaigns elections as the leverage to prise peans have the faintest idea as on their priority issues. For their away from heads of government to who does what in Brussels. To election campaigns, they should the right to propose and appoint ignorance is added indifference, redouble their efforts to put their the Commission President. apart from the general feeling Commission presidential can- > ABOUT that Brussels means austerity, didates at their heart: and they Sir Julian Priestley was Secretary over-regulation and incompe- should choose these candidates General of the European Parlia- A declining tence in meeting the big challen- in an open democratic process ment from 1997 to 2007. Since European electorate ges (as over the refugee crisis). aimed at motivating party suppor- then he has written several books ters in the member states to cam- about the politics of the EU, most As a unique transnational exercise paign for the candidate that they recently on the 2014 elections, ‘The in democracy, the first elections Toxic consequences have chosen. The EU has ended Making of a European President’ in 1979 had novelty value. More of rising Euroscepticism up after sixty years with a strong with Nereo Peñalver Garcia. His than 63% of this new ‘European parliament, by accident and by most recent novel, ‘Putsch’ is a electorate’ voted. In successive Disenchantment with the Euro- design. The priority now must political thriller. elections, turn out has fallen re- pean Union (Brexit, the rise of be its own popular legitimacy.

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NEXT SOCIAL © Nicholas Jackson Jackson Nicholas ©

| YORK, UK - Gig economy companies such as Deliveroo have been criticised for instable working conditions. CONFRONTING ‘INSECURITY CUBED’ IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

by Anthony Painter Technological change, an increasingly ﬂexible labour market and an intrusive welfare state have combined to create a new state of insecurity. To contend with this, a new social contract is needed. The cornerstone of this should be a basic income.

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he job is changing. The three dimensions However, these changes have hit consumers, and new sharing plat- This is not just a case of insecurity particular groups of workers and forms to ensure fairness. With new of new types of work communities hard and sometimes powers, cities and other devolved replacing others - a Since 2007 almost all the aggre- for considerable lengths of time. areas will have to plan creatively trendT seen relentlessly since gate increase in employment in the We should be alert to the pos- to offer new routes into work and the industrial revolution. UK is accounted for by ‘non-stan- sibility that changes could have training for those locked in a low dard jobs’, according to the Orga- a significant negative impact pay-no pay dynamic. Something more profound is ta- nisation for Economic Cooperation on whole categories of worker Rightful concerns over inequality king place. The nature of the ‘job’ and Development (OECD). These (whilst empowering others) and have occupied the centre-left for itself is changing. It is going through include low-pay self-employment, that these impacts could be more some time. Those concerns should a transformation as great as the ‘flexible’ and zero-hours contracts sudden or intensive than histori- not be diluted. However, alongside changes seen to the family since and part-time work. The rapidly cal scenarios might suggest. them there must be a much greater the 1960s, to the nature of old growing ‘gig economy’ offers new focus on the impacts of insecurity age as the Baby Boomers hit re- opportunities for some but instabi- associated with the decline of the tirement, or the construction of lity and low-pay for others. What is A new social contract traditional job. We need an agenda identity, now that adolescents the outcome of the deconstruction for insecurity cubed; that agenda socialise as much online as off. of the traditional job? The answer These three dimensions of inse- has a basic income at its core. Much has been said about the for many is insecurity and volatility. curity – a changing labour market, decay of other institutions – the This is the first dimension of what technological innovation and an Read this article in its entirety on church, trade unions, and the in- we might call ‘insecurity cubed’: intrusive welfare state – all suggest www.progressivepost.eu dustrial age firm. But the transfor- the tripartite combination of job that a very different social contract mation of the ‘job’ is perhaps one insecurity, insecurity caused by the is now required. Primarily, the tax of the most significant societal welfare state, and that caused by and benefits system needs funda- changes seen in half a century. technological change. mental reform. The cornerstone of This is serious and it impacts the The second dimension, the increa- this new social contract should be weakest more than others. In other singly punitive welfare state, now a basic income. words, it is something that so- sits alongside this world of insecure In essence, a basic income is an cial democrats should be taking work and anxious lives. intervention designed to under- very seriously indeed. The edifice of the modern welfare pin economic security. It gives state has become ever more intru- people a greater possibility to Work has been decoupled from sive as it compounds an entirely pursue better work, try setting up a single job. The economy has arbitrary sanctioning regime with a business, reskill, or undertake shifted from a picture of full-time, moves into in-work conditionality caring responsibilities. stable and predominantly male and work penalties. Basic income alone is of course not employment to a picture that None of this has rebuilt faith in the sufficient. There will still need to be contains a much greater number welfare state; in fact, it has under- help into work but it will have to be of part-time, insecure, flexible mined it as those trapped in low higher quality, better tailored and jobs. Many have undoubtedly be- or no pay cycles are seen as an targeted to encourage those who nefited from this change. ‘undeserving’ other. And there is a need support to engage. There > ABOUT third factor: technological change. will need to be greater support for Anthony Painter is a director at More women are now in employ- There are many predictions about particular groups of workers such the Royal Society for the Encoura- ment and those with marketable the impact of intelligent machines as the low paid self-employed, gement of Arts, Manufacture and skills are able to navigate more on the world of work. for example, through government Commerce, based in the UK. He flexible labour markets to their The best guide in these situations supported co-operatives and peer has published books about social advantage (often through high has to be the past; previous tech- to-peer social enterprises. justice, reform of welfare and pu- value self-employment). Yet if nological leaps have created more The RSA’s Brhmie Balaram has blic policy, and the impact of new we look underneath the bonnet a new (and better) work opportu- proposed a system of shared re- technology on the economy. more concerning picture emerges. nities than they have destroyed. gulation involving gig workers,

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 36 DEBATES

NEXT ECONOMY © Dinendra Haria © Dinendra

| LONDON, UK - Thousands of taxi drivers bring the city to a standstill in protest against Uber working conditions.

HOW DO WE PROTECT THE SOCIAL RIGHTS OF SELF-EMPLOYED WORKERS IN THE GIG ECONOMY?

by Oliver Roethig The most exciting development of our age is certainly digitalisation - the spread of digital technologies across all segments of society and the economy. This process will inﬂuence our way of living, thinking and working in various ways, and will challenge our European social model.

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lancers through their one-person forms, we encourage the small fairer distribution policy within the companies – an employment sta- and medium-sized enterprises European Union. Nonetheless, as tus exempting them from standard and employers’ federations to corporate contributions to social employment legislation and the sit with the trade unions and find security decline in line with the right to information, consultation, sustainable solutions that gua- transition towards engaging with and co-determination that an em- rantee quality jobs, and avoid (bogus) self-employed rather than ployee status grants, a growing unfair competition. permanent employees, state re- number of people are excluded venue raising capacity and public from fundamental social rights. The digital economy will also lead budgets will suffer. This also raises Moreover, these workers are ex- to a polarisation of jobs as employ- new questions of taxation and a cluded from social protection, ment will emerge either at the top general funding of public services. such as unemployment benefits, or at the bottom of the competence paid holidays, paternity leave ar- and wage scale. In general, EU policy has to en- rangements, and so forth. For instance, IT engineers being at sure that all workers, regardless igitalisation and the the forefront of digital innovation of their type of employment, are connected transition In addition, as companies ‘go earn considerably more than war- entitled to social protection and to Industry 4.0 is – and digital’, more and more service ehouse packers who work at the end social rights. Equally, a universal will be – a radical workers perform their tasks by of the production chain. For many, access to further training must be Dtransformation for workers in the using digital mobile devices such having digital skills and constantly ensured to avoid larger groups of service sectors. On the one hand, as laptops and mobile phones. renewing them will be key for em- workers being excluded from the many experts forecast a net de- In theory, labour flexibility al- ployment/job opportunities. core of the labour market. crease in jobs across all European lows employees to work flexibly Member States in the coming de- at times and locations of their Read this article in its entirety on cades. On the other hand, new choice. In practice, however, such Life-long training www.progressivepost.eu forms of work and new economic flexible forms of work also involve forms – such as the so-called ‘gig the risk of ‘work without bounda- The requirement to constantly re- economy’ - will emerge and will ries’, i.e. employees are available skill will be forever present as it is spread widely. for work at all times. If we then estimated that skills will become couple that with the new forms obsolete after just two years. Fre- The digitalisation of Europe is an of employment where workers are quent re-training measures that interesting process, which poses exclusively paid for tasks comple- are equally accessible to workers not only opportunities but also ted, it is a big question whether in standard and non-standard key challenges to current and the working day will ever end. forms of employment must the- future generations. refore be in place. To meet this In the attempt to find solutions, challenge, all workers, including one suggestion could be that those in non-standard employ- The 'bogus' workplace regulations and ment, must have an enforceable self-employed standards should be universal- right to paid educational leave and ly applied irrespective of what effective training schemes. So-called crowdsourcing platforms of employment exist in an forms serving the ‘gig economy’ individual workplace. This would To ensure that the cost of life-long mostly use self-employed workers. protect the (bogus) self-employed training is not borne by workers, These platforms allow compa- working within the boundaries both employers and governments nies to publish online tenders for of a company that uses a mix must increase the investment in > ABOUT work assignments for which job of forms of employment. With education and training. Such edu- Oliver Roethig is Regional Secre- seekers can apply. As those who regard to the working and em- cation and training systems are tary of UNI Europa and a member of win contracts on crowdsourcing ployment conditions for people important in order to promote di- the ETUC executive committee. portals usually operate as free- finding jobs through online plat- gital innovation striving towards a

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NEXT DEMOCRACY © Joseph Sohm Sohm Joseph ©

| LAS VEGAS, USA - Democratic presidential debate with candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in October 2015. PRIMARIES: THE IDEAL WAY TO CHOOSE A LEADER?

by Carlo D'Ippoliti

Primaries have become widespread across Europe, including in countries that do not have a first- past-the-post or presidential system. Reflecting on the choice to select a leader by election, as opposed to one being nominated by a committee of wise men (it’s almost always about men), there are lots of reasons for the diffusion of loosely speaking “primaries”.

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ome see direct elections ted by so-called framing effects: base does not reflect the diversity didate towards more “radical” as the most democratic people’s answers to a question of the population at large. But positions during the primaries, way to select a party’s change significantly based on the there is an implicit blaming of the which she will later regret. Some (or a government’s) way it is posed to them. voters too, who supposedly would commentators think this happe- Sleadership; others consider this have chosen the candidate ideolo- ned to Hillary Clinton, who was, in procedure as a form of legitimiza- gically closest to them, rather than their view, pushed to the left by the tion of the leadership (especially Chance and the one who would “obviously” confrontation with such a radical where the head of government is contextual factors have the highest chance of winning opponent as Bernie Sanders. appointed rather than elected). the general election. Cynics will say that some par- Add to this a number of more In conclusion, democracy is more ties moved to primaries because general criticisms against the about discussion than ballots, and they were lured by the media at- simplistic equation of democra- Primaries and primaries have obvious shortco- tention and the renewed public cy with plebiscite. First, chance the party structure mings. However, they have a interest that these spectacular always plays a role. For example, major advantage that most party procedures convey. extreme weather conditions in These sorts of arguments highlight conventions (or other appoint- some regions of Colombia may the strict relation between prima- ment methods) lack: they make have significantly impacted on the ries and the party structure. Prima- the party leadership and strategy final result of a crucial referendum ries could be interpreted as ways to contestable. If progressive parties DEMOCRACY IS on peace there. Contextual fac- pick the most electorally palatable ever decide to get rid of primaries, tors can also contribute. Voters candidate, or the one whom party they must make sure to put in MORE ABOUT often decide based on their opi- members like the most. Similar- place other ways to open party nion of the sitting government, ly, parties could be thought of as strategy to scrutiny. DISCUSSION or on recent polls diffused by the representing the interests and the media. Even more worrying, there ideological orientation of a specific THAN BALLOTS. is the perception that votes may part of society, or they could be just put a stamp of popular le- seen as akin to an electoral cartel. gitimacy on something leaders In this sense, one’s opinion on the have already decided. benefits and downsides to prima- The diversion of a complicated ries depends on one’s views on the debate on policies to a simplified Finally, primaries are risky. Suc- present and future role of political quarrel of personalities could be cessful primaries, that is, with high parties tout court. seen as a way to involve more turnout and a clear result, can Finally, the Democratic Party pri- citizens/supporters in the poli- boost a candidate and her party in maries in the USA highlighted a tical process, and a means for view of the general elections, but different sort of criticism against the party of reaching a decision a low turnout and a close result the primary system. During the on where to stand. could propel a party to even more primaries, candidates are typi- There are further reasons still, but disputes than before the vote. cally expected to stand close to an interesting recent trend is that Jeremy Corbyn’s election as leader the median voter of their base, primaries are being increasingly of the Labour Party, though not that is the ideal representative > ABOUT criticised: both in theory and in strictly speaking a primary elec- party member. Once nominated, Carlo D’Ippoliti is associate light of recent events. tion, demonstrates some of these however, it is deemed necessa- professor of economics at Sapienza The booming field of behavioural issues. Several commentators wit- ry that during the general elec- University of Rome, Italy. He is sciences has now made clear that hin the same party lamented that tion campaign candidates move a member of the FEPS Next Left we do not take rational decisions, these elections do not necessarily towards the middle, in order to Focus Group and assistant editor do not use all available information help selecting the candidate that appeal to undecided voters. This of the open access economic in the best way, frequently change is most likely to win a general elec- two-stage strategy risks exposing journals “PSL Quarterly Review” our minds with no particular rea- tion. Their argument is based on inconsistencies in a candidate’s and “Moneta e Credito”. son, and we are incredibly affec- the obvious truth that a party’s position, or even pushing a can-

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 40 DEBATES

NEXT ENVIRONMENT © European Union 2015 - Source : EP. - Source Union 2015 © European

| BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - Vice Commissioner Šefčovič calls for a transition that is fair and inclusive for all.

EUROPE CAN BE THE LEADER OF A JUST TRANSITION by Maroš Šefčovič By now we all know that climate change poses a threat to humanity and our planet. We have no choice. We urgently need a transition to a low-carbon economy and society. This is a necessity but we should also see it as an opportunity.

while at the same time we reduced our GHG emissions by 24 %. The echnology and inno- other good news is that this trans- vation will allow us to formation creates a high number decouple growth and of high-quality jobs. In 2014, nine greenhouse gas [GHG] million jobs were linked to the tran- emissions:T our economy in Europe sition to a low carbon economy. By has grown by 46% since 1990 2030, the number could double to

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about 18 million jobs, according to a transition is fair and inclusive, that transport such as rail, seaports ficiency policies in order to create study by the Commission. But none it is for the benefit of our citizens and inland waterways. jobs, growth and facilitate invest- of this happens automatically or is and our future. Only by doing this It is also important to men- ment; a reform of the renewables automatically an inclusive process. will we be able to convince eve- tion that at least 1.1 billion euros legislation; and a new design of the It obliges all of us, politicians, ma- ryone to embrace this change. from the European Social Fund electricity market, both to embrace nagers, trade unionists, workers, We see political backlashes will be dedicated to improving the new technologies and needs researchers, teachers, all citizens to around the world, and often, they education and training systems of an energy system in transition, roll-up our sleeves and manage this are inspired by fear of change and necessary for the adaptation of and to empower customers. transition – at all levels – to make it a feeling of injustice. We cannot skills and for the creation of new A different but equally important fair and acceptable for everyone. deny that change can have ne- jobs in sectors related to energy proposal will be on governance: When we adopted the Energy Union gative consequences for some, and the environment. how do we ensure that Europe Strategy in February 2015, we stated and we cannot deny that there is as a whole delivers and makes already that change means disrup- injustice. We must address these The new EU Skills Agenda adop- this energy transition a success? tion and a need to adjust. Many concerns and offer solutions that ted last June foresees a "Blue- We want the Member States to sectors of our economy, business speak to everyone. print" for cooperation on skills in adopt National Energy and Climate models or job profiles will need to specific economic sectors. It will Plans. These plans should show adjust. New business models will encourage stakeholders to work to- the pathways that Member States emerge with new technologies. Europe as an actor gether to identify skill requirements plan to take towards 2030 and People will need the right skills for and a facilitator and address the challenges. Bu- include a perspective until 2050. this transition. And where this is not siness-education partnerships as The plans should provide long- enough, social measures will be re- There are great examples of suc- promoted through the Alliance for term vision and predictability for quired. The challenge is to organise cessful transformations here in Apprenticeships or the European all stakeholders. this transition, and to provide clarity Europe. We have regions that Pact for Youth can also help stimu- and orientation for everyone affec- moved from agriculture to high- late cooperation between partners The New Social Contract: ted by this transformation. This will tech and others that were centres in the green and renewable sectors A Just Transition' available at allow us to anticipate, prepare and of traditional industries and are and education and training provi- www www.feps-europe.eu manage the changes. today centres of the new eco- ders. The Commission will there- nomy. The recent studies by FEPS fore in the autumn launch a new call or ETUC provide interesting case for proposals under Erasmus+ on A fair and studies [see ‘further reading’]. We VET-Business partnerships. inclusive transition can learn from these examples and help other regions to find similar Many people are already prepa- pathways, corresponding to their Energy Union ring and thinking of the techno- needs. At the same time, the EU is logies, businesses and skills of already supporting the transition. The idea of the Energy Union is to the future. We must encourage We have EU funding instruments, have a holistic approach and to them and support them. The role which are important drivers for create a policy mix that includes of social partners is crucial in this the transition in regions. The EU's energy, climate, transport, indus- regard. They have the insight and Cohesion Policy provides 69 bil- try, research, employment, fi- experience on the ground that lion euros for investments related nance, social and the economy. In can help to build trust in this tran- to all dimensions of the Energy addition to what we have already sition. Others will try to defend Union between 2014 and 2020: proposed (Emission trading the status quo and work harder 29 billion for energy efficiency, system, low-emission mobility, on avoidance than on ways of renewables, co-generation, smart security of supply, better inter- > ABOUT preparing for the future. energy infrastructure and low-car- connections), more legislative and Maroš Šefčovič is the Vice- But this will not help our economy bon research and innovation; 40 non-legislative proposals will be President in charge of Energy Union and our general welfare in Europe. billion euros for sustainable urban presented soon. These include a at the European Commission. We must ensure instead that this mobility and other low-carbon reform of our European energy-ef-

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| PONTEVEDRA, SPAIN - A Just Transition aims to ensure that all benefit from the inevitable changes that the fight agains climate change will bring. A JUST TRANSITION: NO JOBS ON A DEAD PLANET by Benjamin Denis In December 2015, the COP21 reached a historic agreement in Paris to work together to curb the effects of climate change. The preamble to the Paris agreement states that countries will take ‘into account the imperatives of a just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs’.

now know that we have to keep There are no jobs on a it below two or even one-point- dead planet. Scientists ﬁve degrees. If you translate this have been telling us for into emissions pathways, it means almost thirty years that the world should reach carbon Tclimate change is there and that neutrality well before the end of we have to dramatically reduce this century. As far as the EU is our greenhouse gas emissions. We concerned, it should approach

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carbon neutrality in around 2050. agreement – it’s not at the core the social impact of the green Leaving someone behind In other words, science and global of the treaty, we know that, but transition and fully tap the op- always has a cost politics are crystal clear: our future the just transition is nonetheless portunities while properly mana- must be zero carbon! present in the primary framework ging specific challenges. Signs The political message of the just for international action against from the EU are encouraging. The transition is that anticipating and climate change. It is a major current Commission, and in par- managing the social consequences Just transition: political commitment. ticular Vice-President Šefčovič, of change is absolutely crucial at a a trade union concept are making real efforts to frame time when the European project communication on energy policies seems more and more challenged The destination is carbon neutra- with references to a just transition by populism and far right parties. lity but there are different ways to and social partner involvement. We have seen in the recent past that get there. Our way, as progressives, A JUST The Parliament is currently dis- the regions where deindustrialisa- is a just transition. What does that cussing ETS reform, and the ITRE tion has not been socially managed mean? A just transition is dynamic TRANSITION committee has proposed to set up produce an environment where but not a revolution. It is not a a Just Transition Fund. these disruptive political forces violent change. It is gradual and IS DYNAMIC can flourish. If we want to avoid takes time. It requires a set of mea- decarbonisation policies leading sures to accompany it, and above BUT NOT A Doing our homework to the same situation, we have to all the participation of citizens. As think from the beginning about progressives, we argue for a path REVOLUTION. There is also work to be done wit- giving them a social face. that creates quality employment hin the trade union movement for as many people as possible, itself, particularly at local level. and avoids increasing social ine- The European Trade Union Confe- quality. Concrete initiatives must deration (ETUC) recently led a create real opportunities for retrai- At EU level, trade unions are project aiming to take stock of ning and, when necessary, strong pushing for a just transition ap- what trade unions are doing at social protection systems must proach in two main areas. The first regional level to contribute to the provide the safety net. There will is a Just Transition Fund, aimed at fight against climate change. We be costs to the transition, and they helping workers in sectors nega- found that there is a huge disparity must be distributed fairly. Workers tively impacted by the transition to of situations. and citizens should participate in a zero-carbon economy. It would In certain regions, climate change decision-making. The transition pay for retraining programs, sup- has been on the social dialogue should not be done at the expense port outplacement schemes or agenda for years. In others it has of rights. This is the conceptual even contribute to early-pensions, barely ever been discussed, and framework of the just transition. and be financed through the auc- even then only in a defensive way, tioning of a significant share of with members worried that re- Emissions trading system (ETS) ducing emissions means killing Putting just transition allowances. The second area is jobs. We want to go beyond that into practice the EU climate and energy na- kind of attitude and encourage tional plans, one of the key ele- social partners at local level to Just transition is a progressive ments of the emerging governance engage on climate change. EU slogan, and our job as trade unions framework of the Energy Union. climate policies – notably the is to translate principles into Unions want to see a focus on the ETS – have helped to put climate > ABOUT concrete action. In this case, our employment and social aspects of change on the agenda of com- Benjamin Denis is head of aim is to anchor the concept in le- the transition and the involvement panies’ boards. It is now time to sustainable development po- gislation. The just transition needs of social partners in their design, do the same with industrial rela- licy at the European Trade to be present at all decision-ma- monitoring and assessment. This tions and social dialogue in a more Union Confederation. king levels. We did this in the Paris would help policymakers monitor systematic way.

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FOREWORD © Antoine Carbonne © Antoine

| FACELESS GAZE - An original painting for The Progressive Post by Antoine Carbonne.

SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM

by Christian Deubner In the context of an ever more dangerous geopolitical environment, a stronger and more binding European integration centred around the External Security and Defence Policy could improve Member States’ security. For that to happen, Member States must introduce tangible, qualitative steps to increase common decision-making and solidarity in their Common Security and Defence Policy.

aggressive and more assertive; to the Near East. Whilst the conﬂicts n the past five years, new the south and south-east, there themselves are unlikely to reach challenges have emerged in are threats from failing states, civil Europe, their consequences do, the EU’s neighbourhood. In the wars, insurgencies and Islamic ex- and give reason to consider a IEast, Russia has become more tremists, especially in Africa and reinforcement of the European 45 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 FOCUS

Union’s external security and de- sis-management operations have the southern and eastern Member fence policy. Are these challenges they – or rather the willing ones States, have a different apprecia- sufficiently important to push EU among them - chosen the Com- tion of external risk; and there is member states to increase secu- mon Foreign and Security Policy/ certainly a reflex to free-ride on MANY OF THE rity and defence integration? Common Security and Defence US European engagement. Policy [CFSP/CSDP] cooperation MOST PROMINENT format: missions with low-level But at the same time, political Unilateral confrontation expected violence, limited di- elites’ understanding of the situa- NATIONAL AND vs. cooperation mensions and increasingly with tion has advanced during the past civilian objectives and instru- one-and-a-half years. In autumn EU LEADERS Up until autumn 2016, in confron- ments. And even then member 2016, with the crisis in the Near ting these challenges Member states contributed small forces East deepening further and the SEEM READY States chose either unilateral res- compared to what they contri- one in Ukraine dragging on, and ponses, alone or with an ally, or bute to NATO, the UN, or their with the potential for African mi- TO ADVANCE cooperation. Even if they opted for unilateral operations. gration increasingly moving into cooperation they did not always the eye-line of elites, there is a IN COMMON choose the Common Security and Europeanising security and de- more common appreciation of Defence Policy (CSDP). The Treaty fence would require EU Member overall security risks and of the SECURITY POLICY of Lisbon in combination with the States to opt much more syste- urgency of CSDP reforms. Many NATO alliance compels EU coun- matically for CFSP/CSDP and to of the most prominent national THIS AUTUMN. tries to opt for a NATO-coordi- reinforce cooperation structures. and EU leaders seem ready to ad- nated response when faced with This would rechannel the re- vance in common security policy armed aggression against their sources formerly going elsewhere this autumn. own or their allies’ territory. This is towards European cooperation, excepting the few neutral member allowing them to become EU And with security policy in gene- states: Sweden, Finland, Austria, common contributions to NATO ral increasingly at the forefront of Ireland. It is only for other types or UN missions. EU citizens’ minds and the swing of armed challenge that the Euro- of public opinion to more ac- pean CSDP was chosen, and even But as of summer 2016, the game ceptance of EU cooperation in then, some member states would has still not changed: faced with security and defence, leaders rather join United Nations’ crisis new challenges, countries conti- have an incentive to act. Elec- management missions. nue to opt for any one of the res- tions in France and Germany are ponses mentioned above. And yet approaching. On the one hand For example, in response to the the CSDP succeeds in setting up leaders have the opportunity Russian challenge to EU collective the missions that the EU Member to be seen as problem-solvers security, Member States chose States actually want. on security matters. But on the NATO. Regarding challenges in other hand they can also com- Africa or the Near East, even with pensate for frustrations in euro the perspective of high-intensity Differences between governance and Schengen inte- > ABOUT conflict, France and sometimes Member States gration with advances in the tra- Christian Deubner is a German the UK had and have a strong ditionally national competence political scientist and economist. preference for unilateral action, This absence of change can be that is defence. A member of the FEPS Scientific perhaps together with the US. explained by the different preoc- Council, he is an expert in Reacting to the largest-scale cupations of EU countries: some How this will play out and how European integration and Franco- challenges in the south, EU retain a preference for unilate- far governments will in the end German relations. He also teaches member states chose the United ralism; some fear casualties and be willing to move beyond the EU politics at the Berlin campus of Nations cooperation format. the slowness of democratic deci- status quo remains as yet a mat- New York University. Only for the least dangerous cri- sion-making; others, particularly ter of speculation.

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PERSPECTIVE © FEPS

| PARIS, FRANCE - Interview with the French philosopher and sociologist Edgar Morin. EDGAR MORIN “EUROPE NEEDS A PATHFINDER”

Interview by Alain Bloëdt

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— In the introduction for the a new approach to politics, but liberated from Soviet colonisation. EU Global Strategy, Frederica no one has the magic formula up But we took too long to integrate Mogherini writes: “We need their sleeve. It is a long process, these people, once again for eco- a strong European Union like but I wonder if we really have nomic reasons. Yet, at the time, never before. It is what our enough time, given the situation. there was a cultural aspiration that citizens deserve and what Europe is now facing a huge crisis guided these countries. When the wider world expects.” Do where it needs to be revamped we finally let them in, these aspi- you think that the world is and to find a new path, but cur- rations were gone and had been still waiting for Europe on the rent politicians only think as far replaced by the economic interest international stage? as tomorrow. They may call for that Europe could offer. Further- rebuilding, but for this to happen more, this laudable integration EDGAR MORIN: It's a rhetorical we must have a common vision was made in a historical context phrase, because the world could of what rebuilding means. We are that made a shared political vision have seen Europe as truly demo- lacking pathfinders. impossible. cratic and peaceful, with a profound humanist message facing — You are referringto Kohl — Why? current tragedies in the world. and Mitterrand. Before them, Not only did this message not there was a major event: EM: During the first and the se- come through, it was also scorned the failure of the European cond Gulf War, the Eastern coun- by two recent events; the purely defence community treaty in tries saw in US intervention the financial short-sighted attitude 1954. What was the impact of fight against an the evil dictator towards Greece, and the refugee this event? reminiscent of Stalin. Other Euro- crisis. From this perspective, the pean countries saw these conflicts world no longer expects great EM: The failure of the European in a different way. Still to this day things from Europe. defence treaty in 1954, under the the Eastern countries have a his- influence of French nationalism, is torical trauma with Russia. — Is this a recent the failure of the political Union. development? Whilst Charles De Gaulle was very — Could Brexit become a positive about a lot of other things, crisis that can save Europe? EM: There have been several steps. like the Franco-German reconci- Originally, Europe was born out liation or the war in Algeria, it is EM: Brexit generated a move- of a need for peace following a he who blocked the development ment that hasn’t yet reached its suicidal war. As long as there were of a political Europe. But, since conclusion, that of a multi-speed leaders who had lived through the there was an economic boom at Europe. It is just the latest epi- Second World War, this goal was that time, Europe ran with the sode in a series of crises, such as still very present. This was the case economy with the ECSC [European the economic crisis, for which we until Kohl and Mitterrand. But more Coal and Steel Community], EEC diagnosed the drastic remedy of recent generations of politicians [European Economic Community], austerity and thereby created a do not have these ideas anymore. the Euro, etc. Having apparently sense of disunity. Syria could have become a strong economic force, a gathering force. Europe should — Was this not- Europe forgot that she remained a be pushing for an end to hostilities, somehow inevitable? political dwarf. but Europe is outside the game.

EM: Of course, but there were no — Didn’t Europe have op- — The refugee crisis and regenerative forces. Look at the portunities to take action? the Turkey deal must have inability of Europe to have a more concerned you. Could Europe human vision of the Israeli-Pa- EM: Yes, when expansion was nee- have managed the situation in lestinian conflict! It would take ded and people and nations were another way?

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EM: Turkey should have been a It would also calm the conflict part of Europe a long time ago; between Shiites and Sunnis. We and hence, the coup and its conse- must find a solution that will allow quences could perhaps have been the Arab world to regain some avoided. Europe is trying to get dignity, despite its weaknesses. If rid of refugees while closing its we take Egypt or Algeria, a choice eyes to what is going on in Turkey, between secular dictatorship and especially concerning the Kurdish fanatical dictatorship, both al- people. Erdogan does not unders- ternatives are scary. Military dic- tand that he needs to empower the tatorships are just as terrible as Kurdish people in Turkey. And what religious dictatorships. is more, we have reached the stage when the Kurds of Iraq and Syria — Is it in Europe’s interest are becoming autonomous. The to interfere in this world in question about the Kurdish nation upheaval? is being asked in Turkey, much like the time of Guy Mollet when EM: Yes, if it is a decision based France refused to acknowledge on the shared appreciation that that Algeria wasn’t French. It is a in a globalised world, we share race to the bottom. a common destiny. All people, everywhere, are subject to the — Si vis pacem para bellum. same dangers: the destruction of Is Europe really in danger? If the biosphere, the proliferation of so, is rearmament necessary? nuclear weapons, not to mention the cyber warfare that could itself EM: The question of whether to be terrifying. Economic deregula- have a common defence is legi- tion, still under the control of spe- timate. In an increasingly deadly culative high-finance, accentuates world, you cannot be completely inequality. Under these conditions unarmed. However, there is no of anxiety, people are focusing current threat of invasion equi- on ethnicity, religion and nation valent to Hitler’s war machine. instead of understanding that they If there is a Russian expansionism, have these common interests. it is uniquely aimed at former terri- Therefore, the development of na- tories of the Tsar that later became tionalist and religions fanaticism is Soviet. There is no 'yellow peril' also spreading. either. The Chinese want islands in the pacific. Europe is not under — What would you any dramatic threat. recommend?

— What elements are nee- EM: A reform of the UN and the ded to promote peace? creation of new international institutions. The COP 21 was a big EM: A ceaseﬁre in Syria and an at- success. Why not use the same tempt at a peaceful solution to the method when working with other > ABOUT Middle-East crisis. This is the way to issues? The problem is global, and Edgar Morin is a French philo- counter the most fanatical trends therefore it concerns Europe as a sopher and sociologist. emerging in Daesh, Al Qaeda, etc. part of the world.

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ANALYSIS © CC Italy in US Italy © CC

| WASHINGTON, USA - Federica Mogherini is leading Europe's New Global Strategy.

FOREIGN POLICY: NO LONGER A SUBJECT OF DIVISION?

Interview with Nathalie Tocci, special advisor to EU High Representative Federica Mogherini.

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— In a context of economic They realise they cannot go it crisis, do you think that the alone. Probably for the first time in EU Global Strategy interests EU history, there is an appreciation European citizens? that while we may not necessarily like it, we need each other in NATHALIE TOCCI: Rising inse- foreign policy. curity is a concern for European citizens. The EU no longer projects — In concrete terms, what peace and stability beyond its bor- does the new Global Strategy ders. It is more a question of the change? EU importing insecurity within its borders, although obviously much NT: In contrast to the 2003 strate- of the insecurity we are seeing wit- gy, which only presented a vision, hin the EU – terrorism being the the new EU Global Strategy tries most obvious case – has its origins to propose actions. The strategy is outside. Probably more than ever called global for both geographic before, foreign policy which used and thematic reasons. Geographi- to be the preserve of a few elites, cally because it is the first time that is now a concern for European we have a strategy with a global citizens because it touches their reach, even if the main interest lives. Terrorism, extremism, ener- remains surrounding regions. In gy security, migration and indeed terms of action, as we know, there financial turbulence are concerns is a structural problem. The EU for citizens but, generally, they do will never act in the same way as not make connections with foreign the USA or Russia. But this can policy. It’s the job of policymakers be a positive thing. We may react to do that. slowly sometimes but we tend to avoid doing stupid things! — At this moment of internal division, is foreign policy a way — If we take the issue of de- to rejuvenate the European velopment, both now and in project? the past, the EU is not and has not been visible. NT: Foreign policy, has traditionally been an area of division between NT: A couple of months ago, when member states: we know the histo- I was looking at the results of a ry of the attempts at integration in foreign policy instrument survey this field. But today it is one of the on how non-Europeans look at areas that least divides them. We Europe’s action on an international are far more divided on issues like level, development was the least the economy and migration than visible. There is something wrong we are on foreign policy. here. We’re the ones spending the I am optimistic about greater coo- most money and no one has no- peration because among member ticed. The problem isn’t just about states, there is a growing apprecia- communication; it’s also about tion of the scale of the challenges being more political. Thinking of we are facing in foreign policy and trade, thinking of development, more broadly in security policy. thinking of energy: these issues

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are political instruments and not start by assessing what does not completely change our approach. just technical instruments. work. We have 28 bonsai armies in It is not about us imposing our the EU and we need to develop de- values on anyone else. We tried, — There are already com- fence capabilities together, not for we did not succeed and anyway, missioners for trade and de- ideological reasons but as a matter it was not a good idea. What we velopment. Is there a risk of of effectiveness. It’s also about have to do is to live up to our own interfering with their responsi- structure. In order to carry out our values in the way we engage with bilities? existing missions or operations, others. The world takes note. Just we need a better structure. look at how we are dealing with the NT: It is a gradual process. Already so-called refugee crisis. The best in the development community, — To a certain extent, the thing we can do, if we want to have there is a great appreciation of Euro currency makes people a credible role beyond our borders, the need to be more political and feel more European. Could is to do put our own house in order. it is not just a European issue. If we an EU army also make a diﬀe- think about the sustainable deve- rence? — What is your position on lopment goals, they are far more the Turkey deal? political than the previous ones. NT: The symbol has to come with the communication. From a politi- NT: Clearly, it’s not a good result. cal perspective, do something that If we think about the reasons for delivers. Fix the problem then ﬁnd the EU-Turkey deal, it is preci- a way to sell it! sely because we are not doing CITIZENS WANT enough work at home. It is not

TO FEEL SAFER, — Could the Global Strategy in our interest to pursue a purely push Europe to play a stronger transactional approach to our re- role in the Middle East? lationship with Turkey on an issue AND DO NOT like migration. Does it mean that NT: We have a big responsibility all is bad? No. CARE WHETHER in the current situation. But we do not have the power to ﬁx it. At SECURITY IS BUILT the same time, we cannot wash our hands of it, we have to take THE BEST THING BY A EUROPEAN on responsibility and the consequences of this implosion, which WE CAN DO, IF WE ARMY OR BY A are coming to us. Europe can try - - and only Europe can do that, the WANT TO HAVE A NON EUROPEAN US cannot - to strengthen the resilience of countries that have not CREDIBLE ROLE ARMY. imploded yet, like Tunisia. We can also create a framework for more BEYOND OUR > ABOUT cooperative regional networks. Nathalie Tocci is special advisor We played a huge role in the Iran BORDERS, IS TO to Federica Mogherini, Vice-Pre- — Can we expect to see an nuclear deal, for instance. sident of the European Commis- EU army in the future? DO PUT OUR OWN sion and High Representative of — Talking of resilience, how the European Union for Foreign NT: Citizens want to feel safer, can Europe export a model HOUSE IN ORDER. Affairs and Security Policy. She and do not care whether security that is in crisis? is in charge of the new European is built by a European army or by Security Strategy. a non-European army. We need to NT: In terms of values, we have to

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SOFT POWER THE DNA OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

by Staﬀan de Mistura As an epitome of soft power, the EU is often conceived as a role model for peaceful integration. However, in a global context of conﬂicts, the rise of radicalism and terrorism, is soft power muscular enough to tackle the problems the Union faces today?

pean Union’s star-adorned flag shares, albeit in a darker hue, the dominating blue colour of the ﬂag of that other international orga- nization that has come to deﬁne my life and work – the United Na- s a citizen of two tions. I have worked for 43 years European countries, for the UN in 19 conflicts and a Italy and Sweden, large variety of situations - from married to a Bel- coming to the rescue of Meo tribes gian,A and the proud father of two at the end of the Vietnam war and French daughters, I consider my- spearheading food distributions self a quintessential European. and aid-drops in famine-stricken My Dalmatian/Venetian father Ethiopia in the mid-80’s, to or- was even born a subject of that ganising vaccination campaigns > ABOUT arch-European country, the Aus- in Sudan and advancing peace Staffan de Mistura is a Swedi- tro-Hungarian Empire. And I have and political processes in various sh-Italian diplomat and the United come to think it may not be by countries of the broader Middle Nations special Envoy to Syria. mere coincidence that the Euro- East throughout the past decade.

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And through my encounters with dreadful wars, the last two of which how to transcend it when needed. the people in all these places, I engulfed the entire world in their have come to realize where the madness, to found an economic strength and the limitations of the community slowly turning into a Europe needs to global organisation lie: the name political union, has been a source uphold moral values of the game is its moral authority. of inspiration for many. Including me, who as a university student The impact of the Middle East wars used to participate in peaceful but on Europe are a call on all Euro-

vociferous demonstrations urging peans to look into the roots of the The muscles of institutions European - reluctant politicians to symptoms that affect us. As I know implement without delay the vision from my daily work, the arrival of The moral authority of the UN de- of Spaak, Adenauer and others. Syrian refugees in Europe is clearly THE rives from a variety of factors en- a direct consequence of almost six compassing the universality of our years of conflict in their homeland, CHALLENGE Charter, proclaimed in 1945 when The EU as a role model the advances of terrorist groups, World War II was approaching the and the failure to date of the inter- OF TURNING end of its litany of horrors. The At the same time, the failures of the national community to help Syrians normativity of the international Union in times of crises, and the re- solve the conflict that is tearing SOFT POWER law that emanates from its le- sentment they have created, some- their country apart. While Europe is gislative organs, the impact of its times amongst European peoples not directly involved in the conflict, AND MORAL Secretary-Generals in war zones themselves, should not be ignored. it can contribute to addressing it and peace processes throughout As an epitome of soft power, the EU by establishing a common unders- AUTHORITY its history, and the field work of is rightly seen as a convincing role tanding on how to receive refugees its specialized agencies all around model for others. But the limita- with dignity and by maintaining its INTO the world in support of humani- tions of its paradigm have caused efforts to fill the gap of funding. tarian assistance, development, it to look frail and defenseless And as we saw with the Iran nego- OPERATIVE and human rights of every woman against perceived menaces from tiations and in the Balkans, when and man. But few organizations abroad – the financial crisis that united, European diplomacy and TOOLS TO have been as criticized as the UN started in 2008 has challenged the values can help build vital bridges for its perceived lack of muscle, its monetary and economic stability in and with troubled regions, and ADDRESS THE inaction when the membership of of the Union ever since. Even more even beyond. In my opinion, Europe the Security Council is divided, and telling in this regard has been the will only succeed by upholding the CHALLENGES the sometimes gargantuan scale of nexus of terrorist attacks in Euro- moral values that shape the Union, its bureaucracy. Even its peacekee- pean countries and influx of re- not by turning our backs on them. OF OUR TIME ping arm is tributary of the troops fugees that have been linked to the My point is this: just like the UN, the that are allocated to it and, most destabilisation of the Middle East, ambition of the EU can be inhibited IS OUR importantly, the mandates that are Europe’s near abroad. It would be only by that of the member states given by the Security Council. At the easy to make a superficial assess- that constitute it. The challenge COLLECTIVE end of the day, my beloved UN is ment from that situation that the EU of turning soft power and moral the sum of what its members want is threatened in its security and its authority into operative tools to OPPORTUNITY. it to be, leavened by the creativity, identity, due to the alleged unrea- address the challenges of our time commitment and moral courage of lism of its original vision. Nothing is our collective opportunity. It its staff.Just like the UN, the EU has could be further from the truth. falls to us as European citizens to been at times the subject of admi- The soft power of the EU is not in demand from our elected leaders ration, and equally of disappoint- itself a problem – on the contrary it that they show the values and ment - often unfairly. The tale of a is the Union’s DNA, the defining ele- imagination to be worthy of this group of countries that managed to ment that holds it together. The real aspiration. The future of the EU rise above the ashes of centuries of question is what to do with it, and deserves no less than that.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 54 FOCUS © VanderWolf Images Images VanderWolf ©

| BERLIN, GERMANY - A 'Defence Union' is currently being discussed in Europe.

OLD WORDS, NEW VIEWS

by Antonio Missiroli One of the criticisms associated with plans for closer European defence cooperation is that there are no new ideas around. The ‘EU Battlegroups’, ‘Permanent Structured Cooperation’, even the ideas for an ‘EU Operations Headquarters’ or a ‘Defence Semester’ are seen as old and sometimes unwieldly initiatives, reminiscent of debates that have hardly made any progress over the past decade.

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nations of old ideas with a new perspective in mind: out of the The way forward old comes the new. MAYBE Just to give an example, a ‘Joint Civil-Military Operations Centre’ THE KEY IS TO EU strategy for defence could well be established over the next few months: first by expanding EXPERIMENT The EU Global Strategy provi- the Operations Centre of the Military des us with that new perspective Staff Directorate-General into a sort WITH because it frames ‘defence’ in a of Military Planning and Conduct broader vision - based on common Capability, parallel and symmetric to COMBINATIONS interests, principles and priori- the already existing Civilian Planning ties - that takes fully into account and Conduct Capability, then by OF OLD IDEAS the complex and multi-faceted interweaving them. However, the nature of today’s security challen- process of full civil-military inte- WITH A NEW ges. It offers a response to the gration will take more time, and widespread demand for more ‘se- may require maintaining distinct PERSPECTIVE IN curity’ among European citizens chains of command. without ignoring that the drivers Similarly, closer interaction and MIND: of their perceived insecurity vary gradual integration between the quite significantly depending on EU Intelligence Assessment and Si- OUT OF THE whether one lives in Tallinn or tuation Centre, and the Intelligence or their part, labels Paris, Athens or Copenhagen, Directorate of the European Military OLD COMES such as ‘EU Army’ or Brussels or Cologne. Staff can enhance situational awar- ‘Permanent Military eness and shared analysis without THE NEW. Headquarters’ have The EU Global Strategy follow-up raising the kind of controversy - and Fcounter-productively hijacked process - ‘from vision to ac- ultimately opposition - that talking the entire public discussion. Even tion’ - recently launched by HRVP of a ‘European CIA’ does. the term ‘Defence Union’, alas, Federica Mogherini is intended to risks concentrating the minds on develop that wider, ‘integrated’ In both cases, quick deliverables a hypothetical end product – still approach further by going deeper inspired by the quest for efficien- controversial among EU govern- into the details of what the EU and cy and effectiveness could lay the ments – rather than on the buil- its member states can achieve foundations for long-term achie- ding blocks and practical steps together in order to make Europe vements while leaving time and which could indeed lead to closer and Europeans safer in the short space for adjustments informed European defence integration. and medium term. Yet the specific by lessons learned along the way. What may appear useful in po- challenge for the EU implementa- This is only to reiterate that, in to- litical terms – formulating and tion plan for security and defence day’s EU, putting an ambitious but canvassing a long-term objective recently tabled by the HRVP is potentially controversial cart be- that would complement other the relatively short timeframe to fore the horses risks complicating existing ‘Unions’ – can actually devise new ideas and incentives the kind of incremental integration backfire in policy terms. for cooperation. For this to work, based on solidarités de fait that the markers need to be put down founding fathers of the European Perhaps we need to look at the now in order to steer cooperation project correctly identified as the > ABOUT various policy ideas and treaty and integration long term: imple- best way forward. Antonio Missiroli is the Director provisions that relate to defence menting any new operational or of the European Union Institute in a different light. And maybe the even strategic level of ambition Read this article in its entirety on for Security Studies. key is to experiment with combi- will take time to develop. www.progressivepost.eu

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| IDOMENI, GREECE - Kati Piri on a fact-ﬁnding mission. THE EU-TURKEY DEAL IS A SOLUTION BUT IT HAS TO BE IMPLEMENTED by Kati Piri If the EU is to stay true to its humanitarian values, the deal with Turkey must be accompanied by the large-scale resettlement of refugees and respect for the rule of law. It is not a blueprint for deals with third countries in North Africa.

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has drastically dropped, so did the the refugees and in return Brus- migration, but the price we would number of deaths in the Aegean. sels turns a blind eye to worrying pay in terms of moral values is With a six-billion-euro pledge for internal developments. Including too high: illegal push back of re- the coming three years, the EU the acceleration of the accession fugees to unsafe countries. If the is heavily investing in improving talks and the granting of visa-free EU wants to maintain that human the lives of 3.1 million refugees travel in the EU-Turkey deal was, rights are at the core of its values, in Turkey. In addition, the overall therefore, also a fundamental mis- this should especially apply to its situation of refugees has advanced take because it gave the impres- most effective foreign policy ins- as they’ve been given better legal sion that EU standards are fluid if trument: the accession process. protection and they have been other interests prevail and thereby There are no credible alternatives, given access to the labour market. implying that we don’t take our so it is important to sustain the own values very seriously. EU-Turkey deal, while trying to improve its implementation. Never- Alarmingly short- EU values at stake theless, the number one priority in sighted and inhu- The need for our dialogue with Turkey must be mane” - that is how Amnesty The safe passage for refugees has, affirmative action the respect for the rule of law. An International qualified the EU-Tur- however, not been created. In the unstable and authoritarian Turkey key deal. Six months later, the midst of the crisis, German chan- The deal with Turkey will turn out is a much bigger threat to Europe EU“ is using the agreement with cellor Merkel has even appealed to to be a practical and a moral failure than the collapse of the deal with Ankara as a model that should be a ‘coalition of the willing’ (realizing for the EU if no large scale resett- Ankara. Secretary General Antonio at the heart of migration deals with that joint EU action is not feasible) lement of refugees is taking place. Guterres put it wisely: “We can’t other third countries. So it’s time to take annually 500,000 people That would mean that while the deter people fleeing for their lives. to take a look at what the EU-Tur- in via the UN Refugee Agency. EU’s borders have been fortified, no They will come. The choice we have key cooperation on refugees did Despite this, only a shameful person fleeing war can any longer is how well we manage their arrival. to the EU’s credibility as promoter 2000 Syrians have in the last six ask for protection in Europe. While And how humanely.” of democracy and fundamental months been resettled to an EU- improving the standards of living freedoms. As a result of the major country - the same number that for the refugees in Turkey, we must refugee crisis, over one million arrived in half a day on the Greek share the burden of the Turkish people had reached the shores of islands a year ago. And while the population by providing shelter for the EU with the help of smugglers. burden-sharing with the Turkish the most vulnerable ones. In the For months, coordination and bur- population isn’t happening, the same spirit, we should remind the den-sharing at the European level solidarity with Greece is also fai- European leaders of their pledges failed spectacularly. The only ‘so- ling, in that the pace of relocations to relocate refugees from Greece lutions’ found were national ones: of refugees to other EU countries and Italy. The return of refugees Hungarian PM Viktor Orban set the is very low. Furthermore, the as- to Turkey is so far not happening, tone by building high fences around sumption that Turkey is a ‘safe third but is a delicate part of the deal. his country. The EU-Turkey deal was country’ remains questionable. Frankly speaking, even returning certainly not an ideal answer to the While there have been several re- asylum seekers to Greece or Hun- crisis, but the only viable alterna- ports of shootings by guards at the gary under the Dublin agreement tive that aimed at replacing the Turkish-Syrian border, the number is currently questionable from a dangerous and illegal routes with a of asylum requests in the EU filed humanitarian perspective. For safe and legal passage for the most by Turkish citizens is now also ri- that reason, the EU-Turkey deal vulnerable refugees. Its implemen- sing in the aftermath of the failed should not be used as a model for > ABOUT tation, however, leaves much to coup attempt of 15 July. And finally, agreements with third countries in Kati Piri is an MEP from the Dutch be desired. What are the results the relationship between the EU North-Africa, where most countries Labour Party, sitting with the S&D achieved? As the number of people and a candidate country cannot don’t have any legal infrastructure group. She is the European Parlia- risking their life by embarking on boil down to a transactional deal to provide refugees protection. ment's rapporteur on Turkey. the deadly sea route to Greece whereby Ankara is paid to keep It could further reduce irregular

| STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN - Margot Wallström launched Sweden’s feminist foreign policy in 2014.

THE 'R'S OF SWEDISH FEMINIST FOREIGN POLICY

by Margot Wallström Swedish feminist foreign policy integrates gender perspectives holistically, through three important 'R's – Rights, Representation and Resources.

mixed reactions. Halfway through my term of oﬃce, the original com- wo years ago, I assu- motion has settled and increasingly med oﬃce as Sweden’s been replaced with interest and Minister for Foreign Af- support. More and more countries fairs. One of the first are realizing that a feminist foreign Tthings I did was to declare that policy is a very good investment. Sweden will pursue a feminist fo- It is the right thing to do, as well as reign policy. This was received with the smart thing to do.

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Sweden’s feminist foreign policy any longer. Affordable child care, was instrumental in broadening gender equality also has positive is about systematically and holis- shared parental leave, individual the plan and sees it as a formidable effects on peace, security, ex- tically implementing policies that taxation, equal pay and elimina- instrument in addressing the iden- tremism, health, education and contribute to gender equality and tion of work place discrimination tified challenges. One of them is numerous other both internal and the full enjoyment of human rights are important tools in increasing violence against women - the most external challenges for the Eu- of all women and girls. The goal women’s participation in the la- prevalent human rights violation in ropean community. That is why is to strengthen women and girls bour market. Sweden’s own ex- the world. This violence cuts across Sweden sees gender equality and through three 'R's: rights, repre- perience speaks for itself. When ethnicity, race, class, religion, edu- women’s and girls’ full enjoyment sentation and resources, guided we introduced reforms for a more cation level, and international bor- of human rights not only as a goal by a fourth R, their realities. We gender equal labour market in ders and is used to terrorize and in itself but as a prerequisite for do this by integrating a gender the 1970’s, half a million women control not only individual women reaching other goals. perspective into all the work of entered the workforce. but entire communities. It should also be noted that Swe- the Foreign Service through year- The promotion of gender equality Seizing this opportunity to accom- den is not alone in the efforts to ly action plans. Gender equality can be approached from many plish substantial results should put gender equality on the glo- should not be seen as a thema- angles. We have lobbied for in- be a top priority of the EU and bal agenda. In 2015, John Kerry tic issue but as an overarching creased representation of women will require leadership from the stated that fighting gender-based guiding principle. Policies and in the EU administration and welco- Commission and the EEAS, as well and sexual violence is not just interventions should be guided me that 50% of the Heads of Civi- as more knowledge, capacity and a moral issue, but a question of by knowledge and employ gen- lian Missions in the EEAS [European commitment across all staff. Ac- collective security. Feminism is a der analyses to ensure that entire External Action Service] are now countability is fundamental and component of a modern view on populations are considered in all women. In all negotiations, such as the evaluation processes need to global politics, not an idealistic decisions and operations. This COP 21, CETA and the 2030 Agenda be further improved. departure from it. It is about smart needs to be supported by gender for Sustainable Development, we In order to be credible in the pro- politics which includes whole po- and age disaggregated data as always apply a gender perspective motion of global gender equality pulations, uses all potential and well as consultations with relevant when establishing our positions. there is also a need to walk the leaves no one behind. actors, including civil society. And as part of our continuous ef- talk. This means that dedicated fort to increase women’s parti- efforts need to be made to ensure cipation in peace processes, we that decisions are guided by a Gender equality: have initiated both a Swedish and gender perspective and that the an investment a Nordic network of women peace target of 40 percent female senior mediators. Recent studies show and middle managers is met within Gender equality does not only that inclusive peace processes, the EEAS and the Commission. have implications for single indi- where both women and men par- Again, we can refer to our own viduals or women. It affects whole ticipate, substantially increase the experiences, which continue to societies. Our feminist foreign po- likelihood of peace agreements guide our priorities. Sweden has a licy leans on knowledge, reality being reached and sustained. government consisting of an equal and overwhelming evidence telling number of men and women, and us that working towards a gender we employ gender budgeting to equal world is possibly the best Feminism in EU policies assure state funds are evenly dis- investment of our era. If women in tributed to all members of society. the EU participated in the labour The EU holds enormous poten- market to the same extent as men, tial to promote gender equality the union’s GDP would increase globally. One key tool is the new Not just a goal : > ABOUT by 12% by 2030. Still, every third Gender Action Plan for 2016-2020 a prerequisite Margot Wallström is the Swe- adult woman in the EU does not which, for the first time, reaches dish minister for Foreign Affairs. work. In a competitive, globalized beyond the area of development Working for gender equality is not She is also a former European economy, we simply cannot af- cooperation and covers all the only a matter of human rights and Commissioner. ford to exclude this human capital EU’s external relations. Sweden economic efficiency. Increasing

| BULAWAYO, ZIMBABWE - Girls' access to education is still a struggle. A FIGHT FOR GIRLS' RIGHT TO EDUCATION by Evernice Munando Although gender equality in education is a fundamental right, girls still face discrimination and exclusion from classrooms in parts of the world. In Zimbabwe, the struggle for girls' access to education gave birth to a prize-winning project with the aim of improving the situation.

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tertiary education sector actually cultural, religious and traditional tives when it comes to security, paved an opportunity for me to beliefs and practices. Girls are peace and conflict prevention better understand my fellow girls. mostly denied access to education have been recognised by several In 2000, I was privileged to be because they are forced into early international agreements and re- elected as the Student Represen- marriages. I have witnessed cases solutions. The Nobel Peace Prize tative Council (SRC) vice president. where female students are given awarded to Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, I became the first female student second priority when it comes to Leymah Gbowee and Tawakkol leader in Zimbabwe to occupy higher-education because women Karman is public recognition of such an influential post. At this are often perceived as objects, the impact of women peace-buil- time, privatisation of education which subjects them to stigmati- ders. Above all, female students was introduced in the country. sation, discrimination and abuse. need to be aware of their rights, so Leaders in the Student Represen- These gender disparities and ste- that they can claim peace through tative Council across the nation reotypes also lead to domestic defending their rights. I also be- challenged the status quo through disputes and violence. lieve that peacebuilding is a two- mass protests which eventually way process that requires both led to us being forced to leave parties to be involved. It is hence college. That was the beginning Transforming gender vitally important to involve girls of my advocacy journey. With a perceptions and women in becoming insti- life ban from registering in any of gators and negotiators for peace. Zimbabwe’s institutions I ended Globally and internationally, so- up studying at distance. As a girl, cieties undermine women's and I also became an outcast in the girls’ capacities and potentials, family because they believed that and keep them from contribu- women cannot be leaders. It be- ting to a sustainable, peaceful and came clear to me that this issue equal development. We need to is a source of conflict within both start at an individual, domestic and family life and society at large. local level to transform perceived realities and gender-based ste- reotypes. But we also must work on Breaking patriarchal a national and international level. barriers How can peace prevail when fe- he inaugural 2016 male students are not given equal UNESCO prize for girls' The empowerment of female stu- access to education? How can and women’s educa- dents’ ideology was later esta- we strengthen our societies with tion came with a huge blished and it came to fruition in gender-sensitive leadership, and T“bang” pushing forward the wo- 2005, and eventually gave birth change the perception of women men's and girls' educational em- to the then Female Students to being actors of change, not > ABOUT powerment agenda post-2030. Network. Having the belief that victims? Above all, the situation Evernice Munando is the foun- My experience advocating for the “women can do it”, the organisa- demonstrates the lack of fairness, der and Executive Director of the advancement of education in Zim- tion took many strides towards social justice and political will Female Students Network Trust, babwe has been a tough journey improving women's and girls' right which contribute to conflicts on which was awarded the UNESCO due to the uncertainties which to education. Despite the fact that both local and international levels. prize for girls' and women’s educa- always prevail in our nation when the environment we operate in is Women are often more affected tion 2016. As a activist for female it comes to priorities and prefe- very hostile, the Female Students and put through more hardship students, Munando advocates rences of young girls. Being one of Network has succeeded in brea- than men in conflict situations. for girls' right to education, by the victims of the deprivation to the king some barriers of patriarchy But it is important to remem- offering coaching, counselling, right to education in Zimbabwe, which deprive girls of equal access ber that they are also powerful career guidance and mentorship. my zeal to end social ills within the to education due to multi-sector peace-builders. Their perspec-

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 62 FOCUS

EUROPE WATCH

MILLENNIALS' OPINION ON POLITICAL COMMITMENTS TO THE MILITARY AND FOREIGN AID

100

AU BG FR DE HU IE IT PO RO ES UK

Politicians should work Politicians are working Priority in public Priority in public spending on building and maintaining on building and maintaining spending regarding defence regarding foreign aid and strong military a strong military force international development

| This graphs are based on data from the Millennial Dialogue surveys conducted by FEPS. MILLENNIALS AND PEACE IN A GLOBALISED WORLD

by Evin Incir “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”

hose words, from the many ways and lots of people has to belong to a generation that be- ﬁrst lines of “A Tale of been lifted out of poverty. On the lieves in progressive policies as a two Cities” by Charles other hand, the sense of insecurity solution rather than policies of di- Dickens, always come over the future is ever-present and vision. Brexit is one of the most re- Tto my mind while reﬂecting on the growing. International crises, mi- cent proofs of Millennials' trust in world of today. On the one hand, gration and climate change are all the European Union and Interna- quality of life has increased in issues facing us today. I am proud tional communities. While around

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60% of the older generation voted big difference between the priori- spending. Taking a look back in from the situation during the early for Brexit, the Millennials did the ties and solutions that Millennials history, the exact same reasons, and mid-1900s: A lack of trust in opposite. If we break the Millennial and older generations would want war and global threats, were the politics and politicians, growing group into several age groups, the to see. Yet it is clear that the same reasons for the creation of our inequalities (even though more post-referendum polls show that feeling that led to the foundation global and regional unions. At the people has been lifted out of po- 75% of people between the age of the United Nations and Euro- same time as the focus on military verty), and the rise of extremism of 18 and 24 voted Remain. This pean Economic Community is and defence grows, the report dominate public debates. The at least gives an indicator of the still one of the strongest reasons shows that Millennials in many UNHCR mid-year trend report perspective of UK millennials. for the belief that the solutions of countries also find it important from 2015 showed that there are today require more regional and to use public spending on foreign now over 60 million people living global cooperation. aid and international develop- in forced displacement. This is a The impact ment, even if this is not prioritised level that we have not seen since of globalisation to the same extent as defence. the second world war. Have we Increasing fear There seems to be a focus both on reached a breaking point similar However, as the FEPS Millennial of conflicts short and long term perspectives, to the one when the European Report clearly shows, this trend and terrorism prevention and cure. Increasing Union was founded? One thing is not only apparent for the UK. protection against the immediate is for sure: Millennials have, un- Perhaps this is nothing out of the In the Millennial report, one can problem but also attempting to like previous generations, a deep ordinary; a generation that was clearly see that Millennials, to a prevent it from propagating. What understanding of what it means born into a globalised world and great extent, feel that war and is very clear though is that coope- to live in a globalised world. They that has seen its benefits through terrorism will affect the quality ration on a regional and a global are the first generation to have ex- experience, is certainly aware of of their lives in the future. The level is very important. perienced globalisation's benefits what is at stake. Furthermore, consequences of the fear for ri- and defects. They seem to believe challenges and threats have be- sing conflicts and terrorism are that solutions will not be found by come more globalised. Terrorism reflected not only in the direct Another reinforcing borders. and environmental issues take no views of Millennials, but also the breaking point? account of man-made borders. outcome of what they think should The solutions, therefore, cannot be a priority. The Millennials seem The stance of the young people be derived from individual states to be of the opinion that politi- of today sounds like an echo from alone. Global challenges require cians should prioritize defence another time. The political situa- global solutions. Today, there is a and military force in the public tion of today is not so different

MILLENNIALS' OPINION ON HOW WAR AND TERRORISM WILL AFFECT QUALITY OF LIFE IN THE FUTURE 86 82 83 77 76 !5 78 77 74 70 71 74 70 72 73 73 64 62 66 58 60 43

> ABOUT Evin Incir is the former secretary general of the International Union AU BG FR DE HU IE IT PO RO ES UK of Socialist Youth. Today she is a Programme Manager at Olof Palme Threat or reality of wars Terrorism International Center, Stockholm.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 64 FOCUS

BEYOND EUROPE

INDIA’S EUROPEAN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

by Constantino Xavier stabilize their peripheral regions. largest democratic systems, the EU After a decade of mutual probing, India and the Whether on stemming refugee and India also have similar stakes European Union seem finally geared towards a inflows, countering piracy and ra- in preserving an open, liberal, and dicalization, developing conflict multilateral order that underpins robust strategic engagement. It was worth the wait. resolution mechanisms or assisting several regimes, from free trade and in democratic transitions, the EU cybersecurity to nuclear non-proli- he world’s two largest mentum.” Sujata Mehta, New Del- and India are on a converging path feration and freedom of navigation. democracies are now hi’s top official in charge of Europe, towards security cooperation.Third, In stark contrast with China, India’s discovering common thus recently noted that relations the formidable rise of China is swif- foreign and security policies are ground and aligning have reached a “stage of mutual tly altering the balance of power therefore in harmony with the “vital strategiesT on how to achieve sustai- confidence and maturity where in the Eurasian heartland. Beijing interests” that underpin the EU’s nable development in an open so- we see the big picture similarly or has pumped more than fifty billion external action, as defined in its ciety and on how to ensure security when not, we can exchange pers- Euros worth of investments into the recent Global Strategy: “peace and through a rules-based global order. pectives on the big picture.” Four EU since 2000 and developed new security, prosperity, democracy However, beyond pretty words em- broad developments have created initiatives such as the 16+1 multila- and a rules-based global order.” phasizing their shared commitment this window of opportunity and will teral in Eastern Europe and the One Beyond a mere leap of democratic to democracy, behind the scenes keep it wide open. First, the im- Belt, One Road strategy. Despite its faith, Brussels and New Delhi will India and the EU often exchanged pact of the 2009 recession and this ongoing rapprochement with the have to focus on these cardinal ugly punches throughout the year’s Brexit nudged both sides into United States, India will not want principles to explore the current 2000s. For example, while Brus- a more frank engagement. India no to place all its eggs into Washing- window of opportunity for greater sels harped on the need for climate longer takes the EU for granted and ton’s basket and is therefore also EU-India convergence. change mitigation or 48-hour wor- recognizes that its own economic reaching out to Brussels to diversify king weeks, New Delhi kept invoking prospects depend on the continued its options and counter-balance its right to pollute the environment growth and internal stability of its China’s European offensive. and disregard labor rights to reclaim largest trading partner. The EU, its pre-colonial levels of economic on the other hand, can no longer wealth. In the name of democracy afford the luxury of exceptionalist Cooperation promotion, Europeans also jumped idealism. Its new Global Strate- for sustainable on the United States’ liberal inter- gy thus pivots around “principled development ventionist bandwagons to pres- pragmatism” and underlines the sure Myanmar and Sri Lanka, even “direct connection between Euro- Finally, there is also the increasing while keeping mum on military pean prosperity and Asian security.” realization that the EU and India’s rule in India’s other neighbouring Second, turbulence in the Middle shared commitment to demo- country, Pakistan. East (or West Asia) has incenti- cratic governance can facilitate vized a greater EU-India security cooperation practically. India now dialogue on their shared extended recognizes the value of European A stage of mutual neighbourhood that stretches from expertise in crafting regulations, confidence Istanbul to Islamabad and from standards and scientific bench- > ABOUT Moscow to Mauritius. This greater marks to achieve sustainable de- Constantino Xavier is an asso- Fortunately, the phase of mutual arc of Eurasian instability is of cri- velopment in an open society with ciate at Carnegie India, based in recriminations has finally ended tical importance to New Delhi and competing interests, the rule of law, New Delhi. His research focus is and the EU-India mantra is now all Brussels’ aspirations to become and an assertive civil society. On the on India’s foreign policy. about exploring the current “mo- net security providers and help external front, as the world’s two

65 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 FOCUS BRAZIL AND THE EU: A SHARED GLOBAL VISION?

by Celso Amorim The European Union has traditionally been perceived as a force for progress and enlightenment by Brazilians working in international aﬀairs. Its dedication to peace and democracy has been an example we have tried to follow in our own eﬀorts to build a more integrated and prosperous South America.

rom Brazil’s perspective, developed. In parallel, global is- a united Europe is essen- The establishment of sues, ranging from the Middle East tial for a more balanced a strategic partnership and the Iranian Nuclear Program world order, free from to broader economic questions Fthe hegemony of any one single Ten years later, in the aftermath of became regular subjects of the power. In economic terms, the the disastrous invasion of Iraq and “strategic talks” between leaders awareness of this balancing role with a progressive government and their ministers. was clearly expressed in 1994 with installed in Brasilia under President the proposal of a Mercosur-EU Lula, the efforts for closer relations trade agreement, first launched with European countries again be- Strengthening when Jacques Delors was at the came a priority. Political affinities multilateralism helm of the European Commission between the Workers’ Party and and Itamar Franco was the Brazi- several socialist or social demo- Brazil and the EU have a vested lian president. At that moment, cratic parties in Europe played a interest in reinforcing multila- after the conclusion of the Uruguay role in this rapprochement, which teralism and in strengthening Round of the GATT, there was a se- culminated in the formal establish- multipolarity – two phenomena vere risk that world trade would be ment of a “strategic partnership” that are interrelated but are by no segregated into different zones or between Brazil and the European means the same. Both of us are blocs. In the case of the American Union in 2007. Brazilian diplomatic deeply committed to a world in continent, the expansion of NAFTA action, not only in South America which power is distributed in such or the establishment of a Free Trade but also in Africa, India and the a way that discourages recourse > ABOUT Area of the Americas, under US he- Arab World, increasingly attracted to unilateral action – be it in eco- Celso Amorim is a Brazilian diplo- gemony, made it imperative for us the attention of European and nomic disputes or use of armed mat who served twice as minister to seek arrangements with other inspired eminent Brussels officials, force. As the fifth largest country for foreign affairs, under the Fran- powers. Negotiations between the such as Javier Solana and Durão in terms of area and population co and Lula administrations. His EU and Mercosur were never easy Barroso, to look for closer political and among the seven or eight book Acting Globally: Memoirs of and the more ambitious view of a and economic cooperation with major economies, Brazil wishes to Brazil's Assertive Foreign Policy better organized world fell victim Brasilia. Bilateral programs in areas see a Europe that can speak with will be published soon in English to specific economic interests on like energy and science and tech- one voice in defence of peace and by Hamilton books. both sides. nology were established or further prosperity for all.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 66 INSPIRATION

PORTFOLIO IMAGINE EUROPE WITHOUT BORDERS

hat are borders? How do they affect our lives? What makes Wthem “real” or “imaginary”? How are they changing? What does this mean for us as individuals, and as citizens of our town, region, country or the European Union? A photo competition organised by the Party of European Socialists at the Committee of Regions invited amateur and professional pho- tographers to respond to these questions using their lens. These are the winning entries.

| 1st - Antonella Candiago, 20 years old, San Giustina, Italy.

67 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 INSPIRATION

| 2nd - Bernardina Cerlek, 33 years old, Zagreb, Croatia | 3rd - Milada Kotorová, 58 years old, Kežmarok, Slovakia

| Public Prize - Manuel Delgado, 25 years old, Cartaya, Spain.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 68 INSPIRATION

STREET PHOTOGRAPHY AS AN URBAN RESEARCH TOOL

promote street photography as an urban research tool, a form of cultural communication and a visual art. The competition is In partnership with: he Brussels Street Pho- organised into an international tography Festival is the category and a Brussels category. first European festi- We have chosen to feature the val dedicated solely to winner of the international public Tstreet photography. It aims to prize in The Progressive Post.

69 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 INSPIRATION

In Limbo” is a visual exploration and the psyche of a whole nation and anger penetrates “the every four years, but the stories behind of the emotional impact on the about what was previously taken moment” of people’s lives. the pictures have been stripped Greek people, particularly those for granted. What was given is now taken back, away. My intention was to produce of the Greek capital of Athens, as My photographic exploration is day by day, year after year, and something abstract and lyrical the current and on-going crisis suggestive, taking the pulse of the this regression is experienced as a rather than informative. has burst into their lives. street that is no longer bustling series of painful losses in the form It is a crisis that started as eco- with commercial vibrancy or even of loss of income, of security, of nomic but soon became social a fake euphoria, as it was up until happiness and of human dignity. Zisis Kardianos won the Internatio- and humanitarian and has aﬀec- a few years ago. Now an ineﬀable “In Limbo” is a compilation of qua- nal Series Public Prize at the Brus- ted irrevocably the perceptions mixture of frustration, sadness si-journalistic images from the past sels Street Photography Festival.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 70 INSPIRATION

| Photographer: Zisis Kardianos, Zakynthos, Greece, describes himself as a professional amateur and as a peripatetic photographer. His photos have been published in magazines, on book covers and shown in group and solo exhibitions in Greece and internationally. In 2012 he published his ﬁrst book under the title “A sense of place”.

71 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 INSPIRATION

CARTOON © Jibé

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 72 INSPIRATION

TO WATCH

Voices Where Think from Chernobyl to Invade Next?

European, 2016 2015 Pol Crutchen Michael Moore Read Luxembourg USA European!

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Adapted from the 1997 book by Stealing the ideas of Europe, the Nobel literature prize laureate way to make America great again? Sviatlana Aleksievitch, Voices When Michael Moore invades from Chernobyl brings together Europe, he travels from country to the stories of those who witnessed country to investigate what the US SUBSCRIBE ONLINE: the catastrophe. The ﬁlm tells the can learn from our welfare societies. progressivepost.eu/subscribe story of the world of Chernobyl, of On his journey he discovers a devastated daily lives. These voices generous paid vacation system in are juxtaposed with the director’s Italy, an education system without or clear, bright, beautiful cinemato- homework in Finland, human Send us your name, e-mail, postal adress, graphy inspired by the works of prison health care in Norway, and and language version (EN, FR or DE) and post it Andrei Tarkovsky. free higher education in Slovenia. with your payment (by check or in cash) to: Michael Moore's 6th documentary is a humorous and solution- Abomarque – The Progressive Post based ﬁlm that, without being too CS 63656 naïve or idealistic, points out a 31036 Toulouse range of problems in American FRANCE society. At the same time it is a Contact : reminder of the hard-won social [email protected] rights that form the base of our +33 (0)5 34 56 35 60 European societies.

73 The Progressive Post !3 - Autumn 2016 INSPIRATION

TO READ

Smart Citizens, Easternisation: Smarter State: War and Peace in the technologies the Asian Century of expertise and the future of governing by Beth Simone Noveck, Harvard by Gideon Rachman , Bodley University Press, Cambridge, 2015 Head, London, 2016

Ideas about the relationship No irenicism in the explanation for The traditional school-book por- For Rachman, the growing power between technology and politics Barack Obama’s ‘Open Government trayal of the international balance of of China, unlike that attributed to remain in constant evolution Initiative’ in 2009, but a weak de- power has long painted global peace Japan last century, is an inevitable amongst progressive intellectuals. fence of the theory that the dipping as the product of a bipolar world and reality. A reality based on the his- Marx’s vision of the dissolving of of a President’s public confidence a Cold War, won by the USA against torical potential of an ancient em- political conflict into an adminis- rating below 20% is an emergency, the USSR in 1991. This portrayal is pire, that the West will only really tration of things, strongly influenced and forces a modernisation of po- somewhat lacking because it leaves have overpowered for less than two by the industrialism of Saint-Simon, litical participation, which can no out China. Although a titan of history, centuries, and economic strength doesn’t win many over. But the longer be limited to exercising the her power had declined somewhat launched by the policies of Deng possibility of improving workers' right to vote. In the same vein, her following the 19th century Opium Xiaoping and Hu Jintao. purchasing power offered by For- hopes in the capacity of technology Wars and the Maoist period, domi- dism reconciled the left with tech- to instil dialogue and participation nated by the search for a national Gideon Rachman’s thesis is lar- nological modernisation for a long at the heart of the state are not the modernisation. gely inspired by Thucydide and time. This reconciliation was then fantasy of some geek lost in the the study of relations between weakened not only by the redisco- administration, but of an academic During the 1970s, Henry Kis- Sparta and Athens; according to very of alienation from work by the who has analysed the success of singer was the first Westerner these, the rise of a new power Frankfurt School philosophers, but techniques already used by private to recognise China’s potential in is a source of tension between also by the unemployment created sector businesses, such as Starbuc- international affairs. states and can lead to war. Will by new techniques of production. ks, in their attempts to build a user A few years later, Paul Kennedy, in Washington and Beijing play out community, rather than just trying his bestseller The Rise and Fall of the Greek cities? Easternisation Beth Simone Noveck has chosen to attract clients. Great Powers, reminded the general questions the new direction taken to explore another angle of the public of the cyclical nature of the by Xi Jinping since his arrival in relationship between technology Noveck doesn’t hide the very relative appearance and disappearance of power in 2012 without claiming and politics by taking it outside of nature of the Democrat administra- empires, drawing attention to the to bring a definitive answer. At the the context of the workshop. An tion’s success in Open Government. fragility of the hegemony attributed same time, he makes the debates academic much sought-after by But she attributes responsibility not to the USA by western powers. Fi- that divide international relations governments on both sides of the to technological limitations but to nancial Times journalist Gideon experts on America and China Atlantic, Noveck is not afraid of Big the historical discrepancy between Rachman extends Paul’s Kennedy’s accessible to all. Brother. Conversely, she sees in the new possibilities offered and legal analysis by claiming that the alleged development of communication a norms for protecting data confiden- diplomatic weakness of the Obama fundamental resource for restoring tiality and maintaining the outdated presidency is not the fault of his citizens’ confidence in governing culture of the state secret. In other administration. Rather, it is sign of authorities as well as improving the words, there will be no technological an aging superpower fading in a new coherence of political decisions and revolution of politics and adminis- century characterised by the arrival public expectations. tration without a cultural revolution. of Asia, and in particular, China.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 74 INSPIRATION

Social Report 2015 Mondoperaio The Nordic Model Towards a United Social adversity for Dummies. European Left and inequalities: Associazione Socialismo All You Need to diagnosis Know in 6 Minutes. and alternatives Jan-Erik Støstad, Mr Sandro Gozi, Italian Secretary Various authors, Secretary General of SAMAK - of State for European Aﬀairs. Fundació Rafael Campalans The Cooperation Committee of the Nordic Labour

The duration and intensity of the Mondoperaio is a monthly publi- The Nordic Model for Dummies Fondation Jean-Jaurès and Eu- economic crisis have not only in- cation founded in 1948 by Pietro is based on the SAMAK/FEPS re- roCité present a paper by Italian creased inequalities but also trans- Nenni. The magazine is current- search project NordMod2030, Secretary of State for European cended the economic sphere. Given ly directed by Mr.Luigi Covatta. and is an up to date, easy to read Affairs Sandro Gozi. Driven by the success of our Social Reports Mondoperaio focuses on features presentation of the Nordic so- his vision for positive transfor- 2013 and 2014, Rafael Campalans and contributions from acade- cial model for foreign readers. mation within EU progressive Foundation wants to continue to mics, scholars and political lea- It highlights the Nordic model’s parties, Mr Gozi calls for a bet- contribute to the debate on how ders referring to the liberal and “workhorse”, its three basic pillars ter coordination of the European to make a real welfare state model center-leftist political area. The of Economic Governance, Public left. Acknowledging the dangers in Catalonia and Spain. That is a magazine led a campaign for pro- Welfare and Organized Labour, posed by the rise of eurosceptic model in which social justice, that is moting the membership of the and how these in close interplay and nationalist discourses, the equal opportunities, is at the center Democratic Party to the PES. The are able to convert egalitarian article challenges traditional views of the political agenda. October issue contains a section values to the Nordics’ unique of the conservative Left on state on illiberal democracies in Turkey, combination of equality, eﬃcien- control and opposition to market Libya and Russia. cy, gender equality and trust – at forces. A decisive call to action, it the same time acknowledging the proposes a renewed Social-De- Nordics’ dependence on inputs and mocratic consensus for Europe inﬂuences from all over the world. that engages with the key topics of immigration, innovation and transnational politics.

Negotiating Early job insecurity Inequality: Cherishing All the European in Europe: The facts Equally 2016: Union’s Dilemmas: mapping diversity and the future Economic Inequality Proposals on and the impact of in Ireland Governing Europe the economic crisis

Nicoletta Pirozzi SOLIDAR Chiﬂey Research Centre TASC, Rory Hearne & Pier Domenico Tortola, Inclusive Prosperity Commission and Cian McMahon Istituto Aﬀari Internazionali

This paper culminates and The 2nd policy brief by the NEGO- Inclusive Prosperity: Australia's Cherishing All Equally is TASC’s concludes the “Governing Eu- TIATE project, in which SOLIDAR record and the road ahead is the second annual report monitoring rope” research project by pre- is involved, is looking at the im- major report of the Chifley Re- economic inequality in Ireland. It senting an overall assessment of pact of the 2008 financial crisis search Centre’s Inclusive Prosperity updates indicators for different the state of the European Union, on youth employment and more Commission. The argument of this dimensions of inequality such as and a set of prescriptions for the specifically the patterns of school- paper is very simple: Australia faces income and wealth, social pro- short and medium term, building to-work transitions among several a 'fork in the road' - the nation must tection, education, childcare, on the analysis and findings of European countries. The analysis choose its own traditions of egalita- etc. Separate chapters focus on the individual contributions. The is coordinated by the team of the rian growth or an American - style economic inequality in relation to paper is organised around six Department of Social Policy at future of rinsing inequality and gender and to children. Ireland’s main themes: a new narrative for Panteion University of Social and concentration of wealth. The re- economic model involves low the EU; politicisation - from threat Political Sciences (UPSPS). The port identifies signposts of inclusive taxation and one of the highest to opportunity; differentiated inte- outcomes are also the subject of prosperity: well paid secure jobs, rates of low paid work in the OECD. gration; economic consolidation a lunch discussion that will take high quality accessible health and Consistent child poverty almost and politicisation of the Eurozone; place on 16th November 2016 at education, secure retirement in- doubled during the recession. a more Keynesian and social EU; the SOLIDAR Office in Brussels. come and affordable housing. All Despite economic recovery, ove- thinking and acting bigger on the these are under pressure in Aus- rall rates of material deprivation world stage. tralia from economic change and continue to rise. conservative politics - progressive leaders should stoutly resist this.

Autumn 2016 - The Progressive Post !3 76 INSPIRATION

Trialogs as The foreign policy of Unskilled and skilled Reports on 1940. a contribution to the National Front workers pay for later Luxembourg Good Governance retirement authorities and the fate of Humboldt-Viadrina Fondation Jean Jaurès, FEPS persecuted Jews Governance Platform, Prof. S&D: Pervenche Berès, Jean- The Economic Council Dr. Gesine Schwan, Dr. Audrey Yves Camus, Alexis Lacroix of The Labour Movement Fondation Podann, Katja Treichel Robert Krieps, Denis Scuto

Trialogs are a particular dialog for- What are the international strate- Danish politicians have adopted a A collection of explosive ar- mat for stakeholders from politics, gies of the National Front? With reform that increases the age of ticles about the year 1940 in economics and organized civil so- whom does the party build rela- retirement for all workers. Conse- Luxembourg. On 9 June 2015, ciety, as well as science and media. tions, especially in the European quently, the Danes will have the the Chamber of deputies in the The discussion’s aim is to unveil Parliament since the 2014 elec- highest pension age of all the OECD Grand-Duchy voted unanimously multiple perspectives on current tions? These analyses by Pervenche countries by 2040. The higher to issue an official apology to the political issues and societal challen- Berès, MEP, head of the French retirement age will have conse- Jewish community in Luxembourg ges. Trialogs facilitate a mutual Socialist Delegation, and Jean- quences especially for the skilled for the way that it was treated by understanding of conflicts, contro- Yves Camus, political scientist, and unskilled workers, who have the authorities after the Nazi's versies and consensuses, that are head of the Observatory of politi- more physically demanding jobs invasion of the country in 1940. important for the development of cal radicalism of the Jean-Jaurès and generally shorter lives than Historian Denis Scuto played an broad-based solutions oriented Foundation, during a debate led the academic workers. Increasing important role in bringing this towards the common good. This by the journalist Alexis Lacroix, the retirement age is very socially issue to public attention with his essay explains the theoretical, intel- are to be found in the fifth book of imbalanced, as many physically articles in the press and on the lectual and historical fundamentals the « Radicalités » collection by the worn out workers will not be able radio. This book presents a part of of the Trialog concept. Based on Jean-Jaurès Foundation and FEPS. to withdraw from the labour market. his research on the subject. our Trialog experience, it will also exemplify how Trialogs can stimu- late and restructure the political decision-making process in a more Find all publications online at participative and transparent way. progressivepost.eu/inspiration

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