Is Azerbaijan really shifting towards Russia? By Orkhan Hasanov1 TASAM intern Abstract This article is based on Russian-Azerbaijan relations since and change of dynamics coming out of several events that emerged after 2008. The article first touches to Russian-Georgian war that made Azerbaijan reconsider its relations and shift from balance policy to more Russian side. Then it tries to explain Russian efforts on improving its international image that was damaged after 2008 war with Georgia by holding trilateral meetings with Azerbaijan and Armenia, trying to reach agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Then it will analyze the growing economic relations of the two countries and how Azerbaijan uses its natural resources for approaching Russia in order to make it clear for Turkey and the West that she still pursues independent policy. Azerbaijan’s attitude seemed like that it can turn to Russia when the processes occurring on the South Caucasus are going opposite to the national interests of the country. But in reality the country didn’t aimed increase shift more towards Russian side, in the expense of the deterioration of relations with the West. Finally the article touches Gabala Rl and other issues that influence current relations of the states. Key words: Azerbaijan, Russia, new approach on foreign policy, growing dissatisfaction Introduction Azerbaijan is the largest country in South Caucasus region with more than 9 million population and more than 50 billion GDP, the highest in the region. The country celebrated its 20th anniversary in October 2011. It has neighborhood with Armenia and Georgia-other countries of South Caucasus and 3 major powers-Turkey, Russia and Iran with which it has long historical, religious and cultural ties. Russia has particular role as for about 2 centuries Azerbaijan was part of Russian Empire and then USSR and this had huge effect on formulating the life style, thoughts and vision and even culture of the nation. The relation between the states since collapse of USSR in 1991 was flexible. But after 1993 Haydar Aliyev’s election to presidency this situation changed and stability emerged in the bilateral relations since that time. Also from that time improvement and further development in economic cooperation, trade and political relations was observed. The cooperation accelerated during Ilham Aliyev-the period of fourth president of Azerbaijan. But beginning from 2008 some positives changes emerged in bilateral contacts. Several factors and events that occurred since that 1Orkhan Hasanov is a student in QafqazUniversity and Studies in EAS Faculty, in IR Department (English) in the 4th Course. He studied in MarmaraUniversity, IstanbulTurkey for 1 semester with student exchange program in 2011-2012 study terms. And he had internship in TASAM research center, Istanbul. He gets Presidential grant. His email address: [email protected] or [email protected] 1 time had impacts on the dynamics of relations. Close contacts were the main feature of this period. New trade agreements were signed and high involvement of Russia was seen in the efforts of final resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Background of bilateral relations Azerbaijan Russian relations passed different complicated periods since independence of Azerbaijan after the collapse of USSR in 1991. Especially during the first 3 years variable foreign policy was observed in Azerbaijan towards Russia and vice versa. Although during the first part of presidency of Ayaz Mutallibov good relations were maintained. After the August events in 1991 in USSR, he supported the coup d’état which took place against Gorbachov-the President of USSR of that period. This event badly damaged the trust between the ruling elites. The deterioration of bilateral ties continued even after he left his post, during the Elchibey’s presidency that lasted from 1992 June till 1993 June. Elchibey’s anti-Russian policy even furthered the deterioration that began from former president. But beginning from the third presidency period, Haydar Aliyev pursued rapprochement policy towards Russia which was essential for Azerbaijan from many aspects. He understood Russia was key factor in the final resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the new small country couldn’t underestimate the big hard power on its neighborhood. With the start of Putin period normalization of Russian attitude towards Azerbaijan observed and further development was achieved. The personal tie between H.Aliyev and Putin was another factor that had impacts on recovering the relations. Russia continued its policy of exclusion of tensions and growing cooperation with Azerbaijan also during Ilham Aliyev period-the fourth President of Azerbaijan since 2003. But Azerbaijan continued its balance policy beginning 1993 towards Russia, not letting the latter to increase its influence on the former. After 2008 the country faced a lot of events that made it to rethink its balance policy and make some steps in favor of Russia. But acted carefully so thatits attempts wouldn’t challenge its long-term policy but give new opportunities to the country to arrange its relations in the world with flexible dynamics. Another factor of this period is start of Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency which began after presidential election, held on 2 March 2008 till new elections that held on 4 March 2012. Medvedev’s efforts as an mediator in the Peace talks of Nagorno-Karabakh was very urgent and there existed hopeful expectations for some period of time during the trilateral dialogues which quickly turn to illusions after Kazan summit. Another main point is bilateral economic and political relations and especially the events that took place since 2008 which caused some visible changes in the economic cooperation. The ties between two countries are essential for national interest of Azerbaijanwithout which the country would have difficulties in securing its growing influence in regional and international sphere and of course it can face huge trouble concerning its territorial problem 2 The relations after 2008 : Five Days’ War There were several factors such as The Georgian-Russian War, US-Russian reset, Global Financial Crisis and Armenian-Turkish rapprochement that reshaped geopolitical situation of the South Caucasus region. Beginning with the first one,“Five days” war just occurred on 8 august-a few months after the elections in Russia, it was the main event that had significant impact on bilateral relations. Geopolitical factors changed attitudes of Russia towards South Caucasus and particular towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan began to increaseits political and economicrelations with Russia after the war.It realized that Russia is still a great power in the region that can’t be denied and mainly hard power which can use it if there is need to form stabilization in South Caucasus region. This caused to damage the image of the West in the eyes of Azerbaijan. Western countries especially the USA and Turkey couldn’t do anything to help Georgia-the country that miscalculated by hoping assistance of the west in case of war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to return the territories. Azerbaijan understood that the West didn’t want to confront with Russia even if there were going talks of Georgia with members of NATO on membership of the country2. Despite the fact that Russia did not take any direct action against Azerbaijan and in fact, tried to mitigate the impact of war through frequent visits by state representatives and frequent mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, a “fear” of Russia re-emerged in the country.3 Russia again showed its hard power giving message that it could use its military power if there is threat to national interest of the country. In this case violation of international law changed the image of Russia as a giant hard power in the neighborhood of theAzerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyevdidn’t do any speech to support Georgia although letting the Presidents Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania first land in Ganja then go to Tbilisi4 to support Georgia. The official Baku knew that supporting Georgia in such a dangerous situation would harm the ongoing relations with Russia and the same fate that happened on South Ossetia and Abkhazia could also happen with Nagorno- Karabakh. So Azerbaijan began torevaluateits relations with Russia through pursuing its foreign policy more Russian based. At least it is the visible site of the issue. At the core of it lies the wish of Azerbaijan to secure country’s national interests in every situation and uphold sovereignty in international relations.In this context, several attempts towards meeting the wishes of Russia in the region would be the best way. If official Baku quite often mentioned about possibility of war in case of not achieving solution in Nagorno-Karabakh problem after this event such kind of speeches began less heard. Also this war showed Russia extremely aims to see its own model of democracy in the neighborhood, to secure its national interest. The ongoing processes weakened the ability of the West to pressure on Azerbaijan for more liberalization and democratization efforts and caused the country feel more satisfied and less vulnerable of Russian model of democracy in the country. The 2At Bucharest Summit in April 2008, Allied Heads of State and Government agreed that Georgia will become member of NATO, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_38988.htm 3 Valiyev Anar “AZERBAIJAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS AFTER THE FIVE-DAY WAR:FRIENDSHIP, ENMITY, OR PRAGMATISM?” Turkish Policy Quarterly, AZERBAIJAN-RUSSIA: FRIENDSHIP OR ELSE?, ,p.134 (http://www.turkishpolicy.com/dosyalar/files/Anar%20Valiyev(1).pdf) Accessed 04 April 2013 4Cornell, E. Svante “Azerbaijan since Independence” M.E.Sharpe Armonk, New York, London, England,2011 p.353. 3 reason for that was the reduced international image of the Europe and USA as contributors to international peace and stability, due to their inabilities to prevent Russia from using aggression and inability to support Georgia during the war.