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Fear, Hope & Loss FEAR, HOPE & LOSS UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF HOPE AND HATE Rosie Carter FEAR, HOPE AND LOSS HOPE not hate Charitable Trust PO Box 1085, HA9 1HU Telephone 020 7952 1184 Email: [email protected] http://charity.hopenothate.org.uk Registered office: Suite 1, 3rd Floor, 11-12 St. James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LB FEAR, HOPE AND LOSS CONTENTS Foreword 5 Introduction 6 THE AUTHORS Mapping Fear and HOPE 8 Overview: Fear and HOPE in 2018 10 ROSIE CARTER Rosie is a researcher Individual factors 12 at HOPE not hate focusing on immigration and From immigration to Islam and integration 13 integration. She leads the National An amalgamation of issues 15 Conversation on Immigration, a Optimism and pessimism: the Brexit shift 16 large-scale public engagement exercise to understand more about attitudes to Where are Fear and HOPE concentrated? 21 immigration and to find common ground for policy solutions after Brexit. She holds an A tale of two Bristols 28 MSc in Migration Studies at Oxford University and a BA in International Development and Why we need a Centre For Towns 30 Anthropology from the University of Sussex. Hope in English and Welsh towns 32 Additional research by Nick Lowles, Patrik Hermansson, Ian Warren and the East Marsh, Grimsby 36 Centre for Towns. With thanks to all at Focal Data, Populus and YouGov, to Lisa Nandy MP, David Lawrence and Constituency maps 38 Nick Ryan and to British Future for their partnership in the National Conversation Political manifestations of Fear and Hate 41 Online activism 43 Drivers of hate: towards an ecological understanding 48 The Challenge for Labour 51 Intervention and action 54 Methodology 56 Fear, hope and Loss | September 2018 | 3 FEAR, HOPE AND LOSS HOPE NOT HATE DATA OUR DATa – often more aCCURATE THAN OUR OPPonents – haS ALWAYS MADE SURE WE WERE KNOCKING ON THE RIGHT DOORS AND USING OUR TIME IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE. 4 | Fear, hope and Loss | September 2018 FEAR, HOPE AND LOSS FOREWORD LISA NANDY MP Member of Parliament for Wigan THE DIVISIONS exposed by the EU Referendum work. The conditions around us have a big impact were stark. In cities, younger middle-class voters on our attitudes, and this report highlights how came out overwhelmingly for remain while in the difficulties people face in their own lives, if nearby towns and villages older, working-class these struggles are ignored, can become manifest voters turned out in similarly large numbers to through hate. leave. We are divided by more than just attitudes The warning, issued starkly by Hope Not Hate in to Brexit. Over the last 40 years, as our towns Fear, Hope and Loss, is that a widespread sense have aged and our cities have grown younger, of hopelessness provides fertile ground for the social attitudes on immigration, social security far right. and civil rights have diverged. Steadily but increasingly there are now two Englands that sit But there are grounds for optimism. Consider unhappily side by side. what unites an area like Tottenham - young, The electoral challenge this poses for Labour is socially liberal, diverse, remain voting – with a formidable. How to reunite these two groups with town like Wigan, with a more homogenous, older increasingly divergent views, values and priorities? population that came out overwhelmingly for The road to power relies on winning the liberal, leave? The answer is Labour. For all the division, cosmopolitan cities and the traditional working- our values are the common ground on which class towns, where the frustration given voice by a shared future can be built and our electoral Brexit was evident, the vote a clear rejection of dilemma central to Britain’s future success. the status quo. And the recent National Conversation on In truth we’d had warning signs for years. The immigration published by Hope Not Hate and declining turnout and dramatic rise in support for British Future showed that across the divide there UKIP should have been a wake-up call. Elections is a sensible, committed majority in Britain whose in 2017 and 2018 turned class politics on its head: concern for decency, humanity, kindness and in many of the towns hit hardest by austerity - fairness echoes strongly. They not only demand, the key battleground for the next General Election but deserve, a greater say in the future of their - the Tories are gaining ground. This is not the country and the power to build the ambitious, only danger. inclusive communities they long for. This report clearly maps the difference Our task is to match their ambition with a vision between areas that have benefitted most from for every part of the UK that delivers on the globalisation, and those which have lost out with priorities in those communities. This is the ground the decline of industry and the changing nature of on which Labour must stake out the future. Fear, hope and Loss | September 2018 | 5 FEAR, HOPE AND LOSS INTRODUCTION NICK LOWLES HOPE not hate IN May 2010 there was a lot of soul searching communities that once were the bedrock of inside the Labour Party over the reasons for their Labour support changed? Sadly, I fear not. If first General Election defeat in 18 years. Politician anything, views are hardening and the target of after politician lined up to put Labour’s defeat their anger is increasingly Muslims, Islam and the down to the lax immigration policy pursued by political establishment. the Blair/Brown Governments that had seen Of course there are no simple solutions to the Britain’s population grow rapidly, and accept from issues that gave rise to Labour’s 2010 defeat movement of people from the new accession and the Brexit vote. There are deep structural states to the EU. Gordon Brown’s off camera problems in the British economy and in an remarks about Gillian Duffy both appeared to increasingly globalised and interlinked world, highlight Labour’s failure to understand the there will always be winners and losers. The anxieties that immigration was causing to its decline of old industries cannot simply be traditional working class support and the party’s reversed by political will alone. own arrogance in dismissing their views as racist. On top of that, as this report and other HOPE Six years later, Labour politicians were saying not hate research graphically shows, there much the same thing as Britain voted to leave is a growing cultural divide in today’s Britain the European Union. Now, anger at immigration between an increasingly educated, diverse and was mixed in with an acceptance that many multicultural metropolitan population and those communities in Britain were being “left behind”. living in smaller towns, often geographically quite These communities had both failed to see any remote from the large cities. Globalisation and benefit in globalization but where, if anything, regeneration has favoured the more dynamic large going backwards. Old industries were closing cities, as has the move from traditional industry down, job had gone, young people who could to finance and service sectors. This has only were leaving and their High Streets were exacerbated the already declining old industrial becoming abandoned. The Brexit vote was, heartlands and has led directly to the feeling in the eyes of many, those in the left behind of abandonment and anger that an increasing communities getting their revenge. number of their residents feel. Two years on and we have to ask ourselves what This report sets out to explore these issues in has changed? Has Labour (or anyone else for that details. It tries to understand the relationship matter) really learnt any lessons from the 2010 between a sense of loss of hope and General Election and the 2016 EU referendum? abandonment with hostility towards the system Have the views or underlying grievances in these and “the other”. 6 | Fear, hope and Loss | September 2018 FEAR, HOPE AND LOSS Perhaps unsurprisingly we find that those attacked by the politically correct thought police communities with the greatest anxiety to only increase anger and their sense of grievance. immigration and multiculturalism are also the Labour has it worse than other political parties. ones which has lost most through industrial They are hated more than other parties precisely decline. Those who have been able to have because they are seen to have abandoned them moved out, leaving older populations least most. Those communities with the most hostile equipped to compete in the modern global world. attitudes to immigration and the many of the When you have communities where 61% of over most fervent supporters of Brexit were – once 16’s do not have a single educational qualification, upon a time – overwhelmingly Labour-voting it is hardly a surprise that new industries seem communities. While they still might return reluctant to move there. And that’s even before Labour MPs and local councilors, the relationship the poor transport and tech infrastructure, which between these communities and the Labour adversely affects these old industrial towns, are Party is broken. And if that relationship is to be taken into account. rebuilt then Labour needs to do more to address Fear, Hope and Loss investigates these issues in the concerns, grievances and anxieties of these a more granular fashion than has been down to communities. date. Based on six years of polling, answers from This is not about pandering to their prejudices 43,000 people, and using the most modern forms or running after their negative views about of data analysis, we have been able to map every immigration, but rather it is about rebuilding lower super output area (approx. 1,000 houses) these communities, equipping their young people across England and Wales and grade them on with the skills that will enable them to compete their political and cultural attitudes.
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