Russian Military Reform This book examines reform of the Russian military since the end of the Cold War. It explores the legacy of the Soviet era, explaining why – at the time of the fall of the Soviet Union – radical reform was long overdue in the wake of changing military technology, new economic and political realities, and the emergence of new threats and challenges. It discusses the problems encoun- tered by Gorbachev in his attempts to promote military reform in the late 1980s, and goes on to analyse in detail the mixed fortunes of the policies of his successors, Yeltsin and Putin. It describes how the onset of war in Chechnya in 1994 provided clear evidence of the weaknesses of the Russian military in modern conflicts, and shows that although the Chechnya debacle did provide some impetus for reforms in the Armed Forces in 1997–98, the momentum was not continued under the Putin government. It argues that Putin’s policies of bolstering central control over all aspects of decision making has left untouched many key problems facing the Russian military, including infighting between different force structures, lack of transparency and independent scrutiny over defence spending, and absence of consensus on the main threats to Russia and optimum force posture. Moreover, it argues that in his attempts to concentrate all means of control in a corrupt and inefficient Kremlin bureaucracy, Putin has deprived himself of all alter- native channels of independent scrutiny, control and oversight, thus exacer- bating the problems that continue to plague the Russian military. Carolina Vendil Pallin is a research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and has authored a number of publications on Russian domestic, security and military policy. She was previously deputy research director at the Swedish Defence Research Establishment. 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No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any for m or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any infor mation storage or retrieval system, without per mission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Pallin, Carolina Vendil. Russian military refor m : a failed exercise in defence decision making / Carolina Vendil Pallin. p. c m . – (Routl edg e cont emporary Russia an d Eastern E urope seri es ; 14 ) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Russia (Federation)–Ar med Forces–Reorganization. 2. Civil-military relations– Russia (Federation) I. Title. II. Title: Russian military refor m, a failed exercise in defense decision making. UA770.P226 2008 355.30947–dc22 2008006926 ISBN 0-203-89239-9 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 978-0-415-44744-7 (hbk) ISBN 978-0-203-89239-8 (ebk) Contents List of illustrations vii Preface ix A note on spelling and Russian terminology xi Acronyms and abbreviations xiii 1 The Kremlin and military reform 1 Why another study of Russian military reform? 2 Argument and structure 3 2 The debate on Russian military reform 6 Economic obstacles 7 Old threat perceptions dominated military planning 9 Dearth of political leadership and control 12 3 Defence decision making 15 Defence decision making and civil–military relations 15 The Soviet legacy 19 Russian institutions of decision making 22 The Presidential Administration 23 The government 28 The Ministry of Defence and the General Staff 31 Other power ministries 33 Parliament and the judicial branch 40 Other actors in defence policy making 44 An alternative defence policy machinery 46 4 Russian military reform: definitions and goals 49 The Russian definition of military reform 49 Reasons for Russian military reform 52 New military technology and demands on military capability 52 New political tasks and military threats 55 New economic realities 56 vi Contents Russia’s military organization 59 The Russian leadership – principal agent of reform 59 The goals of Russian military reform 62 5 The Yeltsin era: virtual reform 64 Gorbachev’s push for military reform 64 Consolidating the Presidency, 1992–93 67 Yeltsin and the Ministry of Defence 69 Grachev’s plan for reform of the Armed Forces 71 The strategic context after 1991: theory and practice 74 War in Chechnya: Yeltsin and the military 77 Military reform in the shadow of Chechnya 80 The Kremlin jumpstarts reform: institutions and experts 84 Russia’s military organization during Yeltsin’s second term 94 The Armed Forces 96 Defence spending 101 The Ministry of Defence vs other power ministries 103 Manning the military organization: quantity and quality 107 Threat perceptions in the Kremlin and at the Arbat 113 Civil–military relations 114 Military reform in the twilight of the Yeltsin era 117 6 Enter Putin: the obsession with the power vertical 118 The Second Chechen War 119 The Kursk is lost 121 Putin’s power vertical unfolds 123 The introduction of federal districts 124 The Presidential Administration 125 Putin’s government 127 Reshuffling of the power ministries and administrative reform 131 Putin’s control over parliamentary and judicial scrutiny 134 Curtailed freedom of the press and independent organizations 138 The Ministry of Defence – under the thumb of the FSB 139 Military reform becomes ‘modernization’ 146 The Armed Forces vs other power ministries 148 The unreformed military–industrial complex 155 Manning the military organization 157 Defence and security spending 163 Russia’s military security: ‘keeping the powder dry for global tasks’ 165 Conclusion: presidential will, know-how and perseverance 169 Notes 175 References and bibliography 216 Index 234 Illustrations Figures 3.1 Defence policy-related sections of the Presidential Administration 25 3.2 Structure of the State Military Inspectorate in July 1997 28 3.3 Defence policy-related sections of the government 29 3.4 The heirs of the KGB 36 3.5 The military procuracy within the General Procuracy 43 3.6 ‘Ideal’ defence decision making 47 6.1 Overview of the MIC and R&D decision-making structure, 1992–2007 130 6.2 Structure of the Ministry of Defence after November 2004 145 Tables 3.1 Secretaries of the Russian Security Council, April 1992–July 2007 26 3.2 Heads of government of the Russian Federation, January 30 3.3 Ministers of defence and chiefs of the General Staff, 1992–2007 33 3.4 The power ministries, 1991–2007 35 3.5 Chairmen of the Duma Committee on Defence, 1992–2007 42 4.1 The military organization of the Russian Federation 60 5.1 Level of manpower within the military organization, 1991–1997 81 5.2 Members of the Defence Council in July 1996 87 5.3 Members of the Security Council on 31 July 1996 88 5.4 Level of manpower within the military organization, 1997–2000 106 5.5 Hierarchy of institutions of military education according to the 1997 proposal 110 viii Illustrations 6.1 Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov’s ‘team’ in the Ministry of Defence in 2001 141 6.2 Level of manpower within the military organization, 2000–2007 162 Boxes 5.1 Defence Minister Grachev’s reform programme as presented in July 1992 72 5.2 Defence Minister Sergeev’s reform plans as presented in 1997 95 6.1 Ivanov’s reform plan 149 Preface This book started in 2002 as a short paper on explanations as to why mili- tary reform was failing in Russia. As so often is the case, the more I studied the question, the more absorbing it became as the different facets of military reform and decision making on defence forced their way into the analysis. Gradually, the paper grew into a more comprehensive study where the link between decision making and the progress of military reform was at the centre of the analysis. The first draft was written while I was deputy research director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), which carries out analyses on commission from the Swedish Ministry of Defence.