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Analysis of Profitability of Trawl Fleet Investment in Liberia

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Analysis of Profitability of Trawl Fleet Investment in Liberia P.O. Box 1390, Skulagata 4 120 Reykjavik, Iceland Final Project 2008 ANALYSIS OF PROFITABILITY OF TRAWL FLEET INVESTMENT IN LIBERIA Glasgow Blodeh Togba Bureau of National Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture P.O. Box 10-9010, 1000 Monrovia 10, LIBERIA Tel: +231 77 098 224 [email protected] Supervisors Professor Helgi Gestsson University of Akureyri [email protected] and Dr. Ogmundur Knutsson University of Akureyri [email protected] ABSTRACT Analysis of profitability of trawl fleet investment in Liberia looks at the measurement of financial performance of trawl fleets with special attention drawn to stern freezer trawlers that fish for pelagics and demersal species with sizes ranging from 20 – 50 m in length. Interviews were conducted with managers of trawl fishing companies for the collection of primary data in addition to information provided based on the personal experience of the author who had served on board trawlers for six months as a Fisheries Inspector. Secondary data were gathered from the Bureau of National Fisheries, Monrovia and also by reviewing available printed and elecronic publications. A profitability module developed by Professor Pall Jenson of the University of Iceland was used to calculate profitability, draw up financial statements and calculate financial ratios. Sensitivity analysis with price, sales, equipment and vessel considered as input variables was performed, scenario analysis was conducted looking at best case, worst case and normal case scenarios and a Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to ascertain the probabilities, with data based on assumptions and hypotheses. Gaining strategic position in the industry in Liberia and on a global level was considered. This paper reveals that the net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) of both types of trawl investment are acceptable. An adequate cash flow for the investment was indicated. Key words: trawl fleet, Liberia, profitability, investment, strategic position Togba TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 5 2 FISHERIES IN LIBERIA .................................................................................... 6 2.1 Overview of Liberian fisheries industry ....................................................... 6 2.1.1 Importance of fisheries to the economy ..................................................... 7 2.1.2 Fisheries production, trade and labour ..................................................... 7 3 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................... 9 3.1 Trawl, trawler and trawling ........................................................................ 10 3.2 Fisheries management issues ....................................................................... 12 3.3 Trawl fleet investment .................................................................................. 14 3.4 Market strategy ............................................................................................. 15 4 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 16 4.1 Project methodology ..................................................................................... 16 4.2 Data collection ............................................................................................... 17 4.3 Situational analysis ....................................................................................... 17 4.4 Profitability analysis: ................................................................................... 17 4.5 Risk ................................................................................................................ 18 5 5 TRAWL FLEET FISHERIES INVESTMENT IN LIBERIA ..................... 19 5.1 Situational analysis ....................................................................................... 19 5.1.1 Characteristics of the trawl fleet .............................................................. 20 5.1.2 Current status and trends ......................................................................... 21 5.1.3 Production, price, sales and market volume ............................................ 21 5.2 Profitability analysis ..................................................................................... 31 5.2.1 Production, sales revenue and costs ........................................................ 31 5.2.2 Profit maximisation .................................................................................. 32 6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 36 7 DISCUSSION ...................................................................................................... 42 8 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................... 44 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................... 45 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................ 49 . UNU – Fisheries Training Programme 2 Togba LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Map of Liberia. Source: CIA World Fact Book................................................................ 6 Figures 2 and 3: Bottom trawl and mid water otter trawl................................................................. 11 Figure 4: Factory stern trawler......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 5: Market share (sales volume) of trawl fleet fisheries companies in Liberia...................... 21 Figure 6: Distribution channels flow chart....................................................................................... 27 Figure 7: Michael E. Porter‟s Five Forces Model of Competition................................................... 29 Figure 8: Pictorial view of a trawler that is used for both demersal and pelagic fishing.................. 32 Figure 9: Impact analysis for IRR of equity of demersal trawl fleet investment.............................. 35 Figure 10: Scenario analysis showing the best case, worst case and normal case scenarios........... 36 Figure 11: Accumulated net present value (NPV total cash flow and NPV net cash flow) ............ 40 Figure 12: Internal rate of return (IRR) of total cash flow and net cash flow................................. 40 Figure 13: Return on investment (ROI) and return on equity (ROE).............................................. 41 Figure 14: Net current ratio and liquid current ratio........................................................................ 41 LIST OF TABLES Figure 1: Map of Liberia. Source: CIA World Fact Book............................................................... 6 Figures 2 and 3: Bottom trawl and mid water otter trawl................................................................. 11 Figure 4: Factory stern trawler......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 5: Market share (sales volume) of trawl fleet fisheries companies in Liberia...................... 21 Figure 6: Distribution channels flow chart....................................................................................... 27 Figure 7: Michael E. Porter‟s Five Forces Model of Competition................................................... 29 Figure 8: Pictorial view of a trawler that is used for both demersal and pelagic fishing................. 32 Figure 9: Impact analysis for IRR of equity of demersal trawl fleet investment .......................... 35 Figure 10: Scenario analysis showing the best case, worst case and normal case scenarios........... 36 Figure 11: Accumulated net present value (NPV total cash flow and NPV net cash flow)............ 40 Figure 12: Internal rate of return (IRR) of total cash flow and net cash flow................................. 40 Figure 13: Return on investment (ROI) and return on equity (ROE).............................................. 41 Figure 14: Net current ratio and liquid current ratio... .................................................................... 41 UNU – Fisheries Training Programme 3 Togba ABBREVIATIONS ARR Average rate of return BCRADP Bong County Rural Agriculture Project BNF Bureau of National Fisheries CCRF Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries CIA Central Intelligence Agency EJF Environmental Justice Foundation EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GCF Gross cash flow GDP Gross domestic product GPS Global positioning system GRT Gross rate tonnage IHE Interagency health evaluation ILO International Labour Organization IRIN Integrated regional information network IRR Internal rate of return IUU Illegal, unreported and unregulated LCRADP Lofa County Rural Agriculture Program MARR Marginal average rate on return MCS Monitoring control system MGC Mesurrado Group of Companies MOA Ministry of Agriculture MSY Maximum sustainable yield NCRAD Nimba County Rural Agriculture Development Program NPV Net present value NRT Net rate tonnage ROE Return on equity ROI Return on investment UNU – Fisheries Training Programme 4 Togba 1 INTRODUCTION Trawl fleet fishing in Liberia has evolved over seven decades and is known to be the most vibrant of the fisheries sector. Quite recently, the production trend seems to be shifting downwards as the number of landings decreased from 4,493 metric tons in
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