DOCSLIB.ORG

Persistence and Recurrence of Internal Armed Conflict

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Persistence and Recurrence of Internal Armed Conflict PERSISTENCE AND RECURRENCE OF INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT DANIEL R. CASSMAN INTERSCHOOL HONORS PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION STANFORD UNIVERSITY 18 MAY 2010 Abstract This thesis analyzes factors that affect the duration and relapse of internal armed conflicts. I use a data set containing 173 conflicts that occurred worldwide between 1946 and 2008. I find that ethnically diverse, poor, and populous countries are prone to persistent and recurrent internal conflict. I find that decisive victories tend to be more stable than agreements, which in turn are more stable than conflicts that end due to low activity. My research indicates that peacekeepers are highly effective in reducing the chances that a conflict will relapse. Through a set of case studies focused on recurrence, I determine that countries with a large plurality ethnic group and several smaller groups are prone to recurrent conflict. In a second set of case studies, I argue that exogenous support for rebel organizations is crucial to sustaining many persistent conflicts. I stress that negotiators and policymakers must be acutely aware of the risks of recurrence when mediating internal conflicts. I recommend the deployment of peacekeepers to enforce agreements and the inclusion of ethnic minorities in government, especially in situations at high risk of relapse. Finally, I argue that isolating and neutralizing exogenous support for rebels is critical to ending persistent conflicts. i ii Acknowledgments The support, patience, and contributions of many people made this project possible. From providing expert advice to challenging me to explore new directions in my research to simply giving me the encouragement I needed to get writing, your help and generosity enabled me to have an incredible intellectual experience. First, my primary advisor, Professor James Fearon, has worked on this topic with me for over a year now. It was my experience researching for Professor Fearon that inspired me to consider this thesis topic. Since I began working on my thesis, he has helped me with every step of the process—formulating my topic, finding data, analyzing it, and putting my arguments into writing. He was always happy to look at my data and spotted patterns I never would have found myself. He devoted an enormous amount of time to reviewing and discussing my findings and critiquing my writing. I would also like to express my gratitude to the CISAC Interschool Honors Program faculty and staff. Professors Steve Stedman and Tom Fingar ran the honors college in Washington, conducted our thesis seminar, and tirelessly provided their advice on refining my topic and understanding my findings. Michael Sulmeyer, the program teaching assistant, also contributed invaluable feedback and advice. He was frequently willing to meet with me to discuss everything from how to present a three-minute version of my thesis to whether I should attend law school. Finally, Kate Chadwick kept things running smoothly throughout the summer and the beginning of the year and helped me find resources to research my topic. Each of the CISAC honors students also helped me work through this experience. Bertram Ang, Amir Badat, Philippe de Koning, Daniel Leifer, Ashley Lohmann, Raffi iii Mardirosian, Ben Picozzi, Amir Ravandoust, Sam Stone, Guatam Thapar, Son Ca Vu, Georgia Wells, and Hao Yan were, throughout this year, a friendly and supportive group. From our first meetings in early September through our amazing experience in Washington all the way to that final deadline in May, you provided not only insightful feedback and input but also an uncritical group with which to commiserate. Finally, thank you to all the family friends—far too many to list here—that have supported me and put with me for this entire year. Special thanks to Matt, Kate, Whitney, Megan, Stephanie, Annie, and Sam for their remarkable patience and willingness to stick with me throughout the year. Mom, Dad, and Jake, thank you so much for your steadfast love and support, for coming to hear me present my thesis, and for proofing my writing. I could not have done this without you. iv Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................. iii Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................. v Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review .................................................................................. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Literature Review ................................................................................................................................ 6 Persistence and Recurrence ................................................................................................................ 21 Chapter 2: Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................................ 25 Data and Dependent Variables ........................................................................................................... 25 Hypotheses and Independent Variables .............................................................................................. 31 Results .............................................................................................................................................. 38 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 3: Recurrence ........................................................................................................................ 55 Burma ............................................................................................................................................... 57 Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................................. 63 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................................... 68 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 74 Chapter 4: Persistence ......................................................................................................................... 80 Colombia ........................................................................................................................................... 82 Mozambique...................................................................................................................................... 85 Bangladesh ........................................................................................................................................ 90 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 94 Chapter 5: Conclusions and Policy Implications .............................................................................. 102 National Attributes .......................................................................................................................... 103 Conflict Dynamics ........................................................................................................................... 105 Recurrence and Ethnic Demography ................................................................................................ 106 Persistence and Exogenous Rebel Support ....................................................................................... 107 Appendix A: Reclassifications ........................................................................................................... 111 Appendix B: Bivariate Regressions................................................................................................... 112 All Countries ................................................................................................................................... 112 Countries with Conflict .................................................................................................................... 113 References .......................................................................................................................................... 114 v Figures and Tables Tables Table 1 Episode termination data summary ........................................................................................... 37 Table 2 Multivariate regressions: all conflicts, all countries .................................................................... 42 Table 3 Multivariate regressions: government conflicts, all countries ...................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Burma Road to Poverty: a Socio-Political Analysis
    THE BURMA ROAD TO POVERTY: A SOCIO-POLITICAL ANALYSIS' MYA MAUNG The recent political upheavals and emergence of what I term the "killing field" in the Socialist Republic of Burma under the military dictatorship of Ne Win and his successors received feverish international attention for the brief period of July through September 1988. Most accounts of these events tended to be journalistic and failed to explain their fundamental roots. This article analyzes and explains these phenomena in terms of two basic perspec- tives: a historical analysis of how the states of political and economic devel- opment are closely interrelated, and a socio-political analysis of the impact of the Burmese Way to Socialism 2, adopted and enforced by the military regime, on the structure and functions of Burmese society. Two main hypotheses of this study are: (1) a simple transfer of ownership of resources from the private to the public sector in the name of equity and justice for all by the military autarchy does not and cannot create efficiency or elevate technology to achieve the utopian dream of economic autarky and (2) the Burmese Way to Socialism, as a policy of social change, has not produced significant and fundamental changes in the social structure, culture, and personality of traditional Burmese society to bring about modernization. In fact, the first hypothesis can be confirmed in light of the vicious circle of direct controls-evasions-controls whereby military mismanagement transformed Burma from "the Rice Bowl of Asia," into the present "Rice Hole of Asia." 3 The second hypothesis is more complex and difficult to verify, yet enough evidence suggests that the tradi- tional authoritarian personalities of the military elite and their actions have reinforced traditional barriers to economic growth.
    [Show full text]
  • Myanmar Security Outlook: a Taxing Year for the Tatmadaw CHAPTER 4
    CHAPTER 4 Myanmar Security Outlook: A Taxing Year for the Tatmadaw Tin Maung Maung Than Introduction 2015 was a landmark year in Myanmar politics. The general election was held on 8 November and the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi (daughter of Myanmar armed forces founder and independence hero General Aung San) won a landslide victory over the incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP; a military-backed party led by ex-military officers and President Thein Sein). This was an unexpected development that could challenge the constitutionally-guaranteed political role of the military. The Tatmadaw (literally “royal force”) or Myanmar Defence Services (MDS) also faced a serious challenge to its primary security role when the defunct Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a renegade ethnic armed organization (EAO), unleashed a furious assault to take over the Kokang Self-Administered Zone (KSAZ; bordering China) leading to a drawn out war of attrition lasting several months and threatening Myanmar-China relations. Tatmadaw: fighting multiple adversaries Despite actively participating in the peace process, launched by President Thein Sein’s elected government since 2011, The MDS found itself engaged in fierce fighting with powerful EAOs in the northern, eastern and south-eastern border regions of Myanmar. In fact, except for the MNDAA, most of these armed groups that engaged in armed conflict with the MDS throughout 2015 were associated with EAOs which had been officially negotiating with the government’s peace-making team toward a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) since March 2014. Moreover, almost all of them had some form of bilateral ceasefire arrangements with the government in the past.
    [Show full text]
  • Interpreting Myanmar a Decade of Analysis
    INTERPRETING MYANMAR A DECADE OF ANALYSIS INTERPRETING MYANMAR A DECADE OF ANALYSIS ANDREW SELTH Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au ISBN (print): 9781760464042 ISBN (online): 9781760464059 WorldCat (print): 1224563457 WorldCat (online): 1224563308 DOI: 10.22459/IM.2020 This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Cover photograph: Yangon, Myanmar by mathes on Bigstock. This edition © 2020 ANU Press CONTENTS Acronyms and abbreviations . xi Glossary . xv Acknowledgements . xvii About the author . xix Protocols and politics . xxi Introduction . 1 THE INTERPRETER POSTS, 2008–2019 2008 1 . Burma: The limits of international action (12:48 AEDT, 7 April 2008) . 13 2 . A storm of protest over Burma (14:47 AEDT, 9 May 2008) . 17 3 . Burma’s continuing fear of invasion (11:09 AEDT, 28 May 2008) . 21 4 . Burma’s armed forces: How loyal? (11:08 AEDT, 6 June 2008) . 25 5 . The Rambo approach to Burma (10:37 AEDT, 20 June 2008) . 29 6 . Burma and the Bush White House (10:11 AEDT, 26 August 2008) . 33 7 . Burma’s opposition movement: A house divided (07:43 AEDT, 25 November 2008) . 37 2009 8 . Is there a Burma–North Korea–Iran nuclear conspiracy? (07:26 AEDT, 25 February 2009) . 43 9 . US–Burma: Where to from here? (14:09 AEDT, 28 April 2009) .
    [Show full text]
  • The Effect of Patron Intervention on Unarmed Insurrections
    PEOPLE, POWER, AND THE STATE: THE EFFECT OF PATRON INTERVENTION ON UNARMED INSURRECTIONS A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Zacchary R. Ritter, M.A. Washington, DC August 24, 2015 Copyright 2015 by Zacchary R. Ritter All Rights Reserved ii PEOPLE, POWER, AND THE STATE: THE EFFECT OF PATRON INTERVENTION ON UNARMED INSURRECTIONS Zacchary R. Ritter, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Andrew O. Bennett, Ph.D. ABSTRACT Unarmed insurrectionary (UI) campaigns demanding irregular regime change seem destined to failure, but such social movements surprisingly succeed more often than not. Explanations for campaign outcome tend to focus on movement skill or variation in domestic- level structural factors. Few studies shift attention to the potentially decisive role of external intervention during these domestic struggles. Despite some well-known exceptions like the Iranian Revolution, patron states have played an important role in determining the fate of several unarmed insurrections as intended. The outcome of UI campaigns rests not only on the domestic balance of forces and the decisions of key elite players, but also on the disposition of great powers and regional powers with a stake in the result. This dissertation addresses three interrelated questions to advance our understanding of the role patron states play during these domestic struggles over control for the state. First, do great powers and regional powers systematically alter the likelihood of UI campaign success? Using a novel measure for patron state intervention, quantitative analysis suggests that the probability of UI campaign success depends on how patron states react.
    [Show full text]
  • Myanmar Security Outlook: Tatmadaw Under Stress? CHAPTER 4
    CHAPTER 4 Myanmar Security Outlook: Tatmadaw under Stress? Tin Maung Maung Than Introduction Myanmar entered 2014, the penultimate year before the 2015 elections, with high hopes for peace through a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) with all the major ethnic armed groups (EAGs) from among the many non-state armed groups (NSAGs) seen by the ruling establishment as the most serious hard security threat of the day. The protracted armed conflict between the EAGs and Tatmadaw (Myanmar armed forces) under successive governments, since independence in 1948, have resulted in material and financial losses, stunted development of affected regions, hardship and misery to the population, and countless casualties not only of combatants but also innocent civilians. At present, as the NCA remains elusive, the unresolved conflict is challenging the legitimacy of the government and the 2008 Constitution as well as the territorial integrity of the Myanmar state formally known as the Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Tatmadaw and Myanmar’s national security: internal and external challenges The major internal security challenge which has been the concern of Tatmadaw leaders has been the insurgency problem all along. Realizing that a military solution is neither possible nor desirable in this era of democratic transition, the current leadership of the Tatmadaw has supported the peace process while keeping the option for employing force of arms when deemed necessary. Moreover, it holds on to its role of safeguarding peace, security and stability of the
    [Show full text]
  • Griffith Asia Institute and the Author(S)
    Losing My Religion? Protest and Political Legitimacy in Burma Author McCarthy, Stephen Published 2008 Version Version of Record (VoR) Copyright Statement © 2008 Griffith Asia Institute and the Author(s). The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the publisher’s website for further information. Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/23870 Link to published version https://www.griffith.edu.au/asia-institute Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au Griffith Asia Institute Regional Outlook Losing my Religion? Protest and Political Legitimacy in Burma Stephen McCarthy About the Griffith Asia Institute The Griffith Asia Institute produces innovative, interdisciplinary research on key developments in the politics, economics, societies and cultures of Asia and the South Pacific. By promoting knowledge of Australia’s changing region and its importance to our future, the Griffith Asia Institute seeks to inform and foster academic scholarship, public awareness and considered and responsive policy making. The Institute’s work builds on a 33 year Griffith University tradition of providing cutting- edge research on issues of contemporary significance in the region. Griffith was the first University in the country to offer Asian Studies to undergraduate students and remains a pioneer in this field. This strong history means that today’s Institute can draw on the expertise of some 50 Asia–Pacific focused academics from many disciplines across the university. The Griffith Asia Institute’s ‘Regional Outlook’ papers publish the institute’s cutting edge, policy-relevant research on Australia and its regional environment. The texts of published papers and the titles of upcoming publications can be found on the Institute’s website: www.griffith.edu.au/business/griffith-asia-institute/ ‘Losing my Religion? Protest and Political Legitimacy in Burma’, Regional Outlook Paper No.
    [Show full text]
  • Listening to Voices – Perspectives from the Tatmadaw's Rank and File
    Listening to Voices Perspectives From the Tatmadaw’s Rank and File Listening to Voices – Perspectives From the Tatmadaw’s Rank and File 1 Methodology and training: Soth Plai Ngarm Project coordination and writing: Amie Kirkham Writing and editing support: Raymond Hyma, Amelia Breeze, Sarah Clarke Layout by: Boonruang Song-ngam Published by: The Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies (CPCS), 2015 Funding Support: The Royal Norwegian Embassy, Myanmar, Dan Church Aid ISBN: 9 789996 381768 2 Contents Acknowledgements .............................................................. 4 Preface ................................................................................. 5 A Brief History of the Tatmadaw ........................................... 9 Implementation and Method ............................................. 14 Findings in Brief .................................................................. 20 Expanding Main Themes .................................................... 23 Peace and the peace process .............................................. 23 Development needs included in negotiations .................... 32 Life in the rank and file ........................................................ 34 The future: challenges and needs ....................................... 36 Overcoming Prejudice – insights from the listeners ............. 40 Conclusions and Opportunities ........................................... 43 Bibliography ....................................................................... 45 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The young
    [Show full text]
  • Militias in Myanmar
    Militias in Myanmar John Buchanan July 2016 Acknowledgement The author would like to acknowledge the many people who assisted in this project, particularly those who generously shared their thoughts and experiences about the many topics covered in this report. I would also like to thank my friends and colleagues who took the time to provide comments and feedback on earlier drafts of this report. These include Matthew Arnold, Patrick Barron, Kim Jolliffe, Paul Keenan, David Mathieson, Brian McCartan, Kim Ninh, Andrew Selth and Martin Smith. Finally, I would also like to express my appreciation to friends from Burma who assisted with translation and data collection. About the Author John Buchanan is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Washington. His interest in Southeast Asia dates back over two decades. His most recent publication is Developing Disparity: Regional Investment in Burma’s Borderlands for the Transnational Institute. About The Asia Foundation The Asia Foundation is a nonprofit international development organization committed to improving lives across a dynamic and developing Asia. Informed by six decades of experience and deep local expertise, our programs address critical issues affecting Asia in the 21st century—governance and law, economic development, women's empowerment, environment, and regional cooperation. In addition, our Books for Asia and professional exchanges are among the ways we encourage Asia’s continued development as a peaceful, just, and thriving region of the world. Headquartered in San Francisco, The Asia Foundation works through a network of offices in 18 Asian countries and in Washington, DC. Working with public and private partners, the Foundation receives funding from a diverse group of bilateral and multilateral development agencies, foundations, corporations, and individuals.
    [Show full text]
  • The Meaning of Suu Kyi's Release
    The Meaning of Suu Kyi’s Release By Professor Ganganath Jha JNU 1 | P a g e Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of National League for Democracy (NLD), who had been victorious in the elections of 1990 with a massive mandate and was denied her role in politics of the country, is once again in the news headlines in the International Press. Since 1989, she was kept in house arrest or confinement by the military on one pretext or the other. All efforts were made to make her irrelevant from shaping the destiny of the nation. Her supporters were prosecuted, jailed or compelled to seek asylum elsewhere. Her NLD party was banned and the situation was created in which opposition activities were projected as anti-national. The media was gagged and the gathering of the people was restricted even in the Buddhist Wats. The irritating restrictions were imposed on telephone and mobile connections, internet facilities, and free movement of the people inside the country. Yet the military was unable in its containment drive against Suu Kyi. Her widespread influence remained intact. She became more popular, charismatic and iconic. All those unhappy with the political system of Myanmar and concerned about the problem of food, clothing, shelter and price rise, do think about Suu Kyi, whose vision and wisdom are acknowledged at the global level. Suu Kyi is a Nobel laureate, a recipient of Sakharin and Nehru award, who is well known for her non-violent democratic ideas. Her views about democracy, human rights and federalism for the country are known through her lectures and interviews.
    [Show full text]
  • Myanmar's Military: Back to the Barracks?
    Update Briefing Asia Briefing N°143 Yangon/Brussels, 22 April 2014 Myanmar’s Military: Back to the Barracks? I. Overview Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, has been the dominant institution in the country for most of its post-independence history. After decades of military rule, it began the shift to a semi-civilian government. A new generation of leaders in the military and in government pushed the transition far further and much faster than anyone could have imagined. Major questions remain, however, about the Tatmadaw’s intentions, its ongoing involvement in politics and the economy, and whether and within what timeframe it will accept to be brought under civilian control. Transforming from an all-powerful military to one that accepts democratic constraints on its power will be an enormous challenge. The Tatmadaw’s institutional perspective is heavily influenced by its role in Myan- mar’s anti-colonial struggle – the leaders of which founded the military – and its early post-independence experience. The new country was almost torn apart by communist insurrection in the centre and ethnic insurgency in the periphery. The early years of parliamentary democracy were characterised by factionalism and infighting, which many in the Tatmadaw saw as driven by self-serving politicians having little regard for the national interest. The upshot is that many in the military remain distrustful of civilian politics. This, together with fears about instability at a time of major political change, mean that the Tatmadaw is not yet ready to give up constitutional prerogatives that ensure, through guaranteed legislative representation, that it has a veto on chang- es to the charter, as well as control of key security ministries, among other things.
    [Show full text]
  • THE MILITARY in BURMA/MYANMAR on the Longevity of Tatmadaw Rule and Influence
    THE MILITARY IN BURMA/MYANMAR On the Longevity of Tatmadaw Rule and Influence David I. Steinberg TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA ISSN 0219-3213 TRS6/21s ISSUE ISBN 978-981-4951-71-5 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace 6 Singapore 119614 http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg 9 7 8 9 8 1 4 9 5 1 7 1 5 2021 21-J07643 00 Trends_2021-6 cover.indd 1 28/4/21 9:55 AM TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 21-J07643 01 Trends_2021-6.indd 1 28/4/21 9:41 AM The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) is an autonomous organization established in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are grouped under Regional Economic Studies (RES), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). The Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC), the Singapore APEC Study Centre and the Temasek History Research Centre (THRC). ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world. 21-J07643 01 Trends_2021-6.indd 2 28/4/21 9:41 AM THE MILITARY IN BURMA/MYANMAR On the Longevity of Tatmadaw Rule and Influence David I.
    [Show full text]
  • Aung San Suu Kyi Myanmar (Burma)
    AUNG SAN SUU KYI MYANMAR (BURMA) Daw1 Aung San Suu Kyi is perhaps one of the most well-known women political activists in the world today. For her courageous non-violent opposition to the repressive military regime governing her country and her defence of human rights, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in December 1991. As a result of the supposed threat which Daw Aung San Suu Kyi poses to state security, she has been held under house arrest by the Myanmar authorities since July 1989. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi - the daughter of Aung San, revered as the father of Burmese independence - returned to Burma in 1988 to look after her dying mother, and soon became involved in the democracy movement. In September 1988 she helped to form the National League for Democracy (NLD). The NLD is the largest legally-recognised political party in Myanmar. It won more than 80% of the seats in the May 1990 elections. However, it is the military authorities, who staged a coup in September 1988, who still hold power, and not the NLD. Before and during the military coup, hundreds of peaceful demonstrators were killed by security forces. Martial Law introduced shortly after the coup included laws banning "political gatherings". Beginning in June 1989 the NLD and other opposition parties organized peaceful rallies in defiance of Martial Law. The NLD also held memorials for students killed by the military and rallies at which Aung San Suu Kyi called for non-violent resistance to Martial Law. Aung San Suu Kyi once described her party's campaign as "no more violent than is necessary in banging the keys of a typewriter".
    [Show full text]