The Effect of Patron Intervention on Unarmed Insurrections

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The Effect of Patron Intervention on Unarmed Insurrections PEOPLE, POWER, AND THE STATE: THE EFFECT OF PATRON INTERVENTION ON UNARMED INSURRECTIONS A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Zacchary R. Ritter, M.A. Washington, DC August 24, 2015 Copyright 2015 by Zacchary R. Ritter All Rights Reserved ii PEOPLE, POWER, AND THE STATE: THE EFFECT OF PATRON INTERVENTION ON UNARMED INSURRECTIONS Zacchary R. Ritter, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Andrew O. Bennett, Ph.D. ABSTRACT Unarmed insurrectionary (UI) campaigns demanding irregular regime change seem destined to failure, but such social movements surprisingly succeed more often than not. Explanations for campaign outcome tend to focus on movement skill or variation in domestic- level structural factors. Few studies shift attention to the potentially decisive role of external intervention during these domestic struggles. Despite some well-known exceptions like the Iranian Revolution, patron states have played an important role in determining the fate of several unarmed insurrections as intended. The outcome of UI campaigns rests not only on the domestic balance of forces and the decisions of key elite players, but also on the disposition of great powers and regional powers with a stake in the result. This dissertation addresses three interrelated questions to advance our understanding of the role patron states play during these domestic struggles over control for the state. First, do great powers and regional powers systematically alter the likelihood of UI campaign success? Using a novel measure for patron state intervention, quantitative analysis suggests that the probability of UI campaign success depends on how patron states react. Second, how do patron states transform latent leverage into actual influence aside from the explicit threat or actual use of military force? After reviewing all cases of patron intervention, I identify three generalizable causal mechanisms – isolate and unite, feast or famine, and decapitation – patron states employ to channel the dynamics of UI campaigns to a desirable outcome. Third, why do some external iii interventions fail? The deviant cases suggest that several factors limit the patron's ability to shape the outcome of UI campaigns. Nonetheless, domestic institutional configurations that intimately link the institutional interests of the security services to the current regime leadership and/or competing bureaucratic and business interests within the patron state that hinders the formulation of a coherent foreign policy appear most important. Ultimately, this dissertation seeks to advance the emerging research program in security studies on nonviolent resistance and irregular regime overthrow by capturing the role patron states play during UI campaigns. iv Young graduate students are often told to select a dissertation committee wisely. I could not be happier about my choice. Charles King consistently provided excellent feedback and friendly advice in a timely fashion. Daniel Nexon proved a unique mentor. His analytical sharpness helped me refine my overall theoretical framework. More profoundly, a brief conversation with Dan helped jumpstart this project during a critical phase. Without his blunt remarks about why my project makes sense, I would have continued to flounder in unproductive self-doubt. As for Andrew Bennett, there are no words – or perhaps too many – for the selfless support he gave me and this dissertation from start to finish. Finally, Robert Lieber was an invaluable mentor during the toughest years of this project. I always secretly considered him another member of my dissertation committee. My colleagues in the Government department at Georgetown also proved invaluable intellectual assets and great companions, especially Yu-Ming Liou, Fouad Pervez, Yonatan Morse, Hesham Salem, Paul Musgrave, Peter Henne, Cory Julie, and Elliott Fullmer. I am also deeply appreciative of the financial support from the Smith Richardson Foundation that enabled me to make important insights at a formative stage of this project. Lastly, my time at the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Political Science department as a visiting scholar provided an excellent intellectual environment to discuss my project and finish writing this dissertation. In particular, I would like to thank Andrew Kydd and Jon Pevehouse as well as my office mates Matthew Mitchell, Tiago Losso, and Florian Boeller. In the end, I came out on the other side of this circuitous journey because of my family, who gave me an endless reservoir of solace, inspiration, and love. Naturally, I include my partner Sharon Tang among this fold. She has been my constant anchor when so my other aspects of my life seemed so adrift. Many thanks, Zacchary R. Ritter v TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Situating the Phenomenon of Unarmed Insurrections ................................................. 4 I. Revolution, Democratization, and Unarmed Insurrections................................................... 4 II. What is an Unarmed Insurrection? .................................................................................... 10 Chapter 2: External Interventions During UI Campaigns ........................................................... 17 I. Domestic-Level Explanations for UI Campaign Outcomes .............................................. 19 II. International Dimensions to UI Campaign Outcomes ...................................................... 25 III. A Theory of Patron Intervention During UI Campaigns ................................................. 31 IV. Quantitative Analysis of Patron Intervention .................................................................. 38 Chapter 3: Typological Theory and Case Selection .................................................................... 48 I. A Typological Space for Cases of Patron Intervention ...................................................... 48 II. Theory-Building from Cases of Failed Patron Intervention .............................................. 52 III. Case Selection for Qualitative Analysis of Patron Intervention ...................................... 74 Chapter 4: Isolate and Unite I: South Korea 1979-1980 .............................................................. 80 I. The Political Environment .................................................................................................. 80 1.a. The Yushin System ................................................................................................... 80 1.b. The Opposition .......................................................................................................... 85 1.c. US-ROK Relations .................................................................................................... 87 II. Narrative of Events ............................................................................................................ 90 2.a. 08/07/79 - 10/26/79 ................................................................................................... 90 2.b. 10/27/79 - 05/28/80 ................................................................................................... 93 III. US Actions: 08/11/79 - 5/28/80 ..................................................................................... 107 IV. The US Factor in the 1979-1980 Political Transition .................................................... 118 Chapter 5: Isolate and Unite II: South Korea 1987 .................................................................... 132 I. The Political Environment ................................................................................................ 133 1.a. The Chun Regime .................................................................................................... 133 1.b. The Opposition ........................................................................................................ 140 1.c. US-ROK Relations: 05/31/80 - 02/06/87 ................................................................ 145 II. Narrative of Events .......................................................................................................... 151 2.a. 02/13/85 - 04/12/87 ................................................................................................. 151 2.b. 04/13/87 - 06/31/87 ................................................................................................. 155 III. US Actions: 02/06/87 - 06/31/87 ................................................................................... 162 IV. The US Factor in South Korea's Uprisings and Alternative Explanations .................... 170 Chapter 6: Feast or Famine: Panama 1988 ................................................................................ 187 vi I. Two Analytic Narratives on the Successful Use of "Feast or Famine" Tactics ............... 189 1.a. Cameroon 1991 ....................................................................................................... 190 1.b. Haiti 1985-1986 ...................................................................................................... 195 II. The Political Environment .............................................................................................. 202 2.a. Noriega's Regime ...................................................................................................
Recommended publications
  • Coalitions in Ukraine's Orange Revolution
    psr1300029 xxx (xxx) June 17, 2013 20:48 American Political Science Review Vol. 107, No. 3 August 2013 doi:10.1017/S0003055413000294 c American Political Science Association 2013 The Semblance of Democratic Revolution: Coalitions in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution MARK R. BEISSINGER Princeton University sing two unusual surveys, this study analyzes participation in the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, comparing participants with revolution supporters, opponents, counter-revolutionaries, U and the apathetic/inactive. As the analysis shows, most revolutionaries were weakly committed to the revolution’s democratic master narrative, and the revolution’s spectacular mobilizational success was largely due to its mobilization of cultural cleavages and symbolic capital to construct a negative coalition across diverse policy groupings. A contrast is drawn between urban civic revolutions like the Orange Revolution and protracted peasant revolutions. The strategies associated with these revolution- ary models affect the roles of revolutionary organization and selective incentives and the character of revolutionary coalitions. As the comparison suggests, postrevolutionary instability may be built into urban civic revolutions due to their reliance on a rapidly convened negative coalition of hundreds of thousands, distinguished by fractured elites, lack of consensus over fundamental policy issues, and weak commitment to democratic ends. t is widely acknowledged that the character of political freedoms in their immediate wake, though in revolution has
    [Show full text]
  • Extensions of Remarks
    32254 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS September 23, 19 7 6 before the Senate, I move, in accordance CONFffiMATIONS ject to the nominee's commitment to respond with the previous order, that the Senate to requests to appear and testify before any Executive nominations confirmed by duly constituted committee of the Senate. stand in adjournment until the hour of the Senate September 23, 1976: THE JUDICIARY 9 a.m. tomorrow. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND Howard G. Munson, of New York, to be The motion was agreed to; and at 8: 03 WELFARE U.S. district judge for the northern district p.m., the Senate adjourned until tomor­ Susan B. Gordon, of New Mexico, to be an of New York. Assistant Secretary of Health, Education, and Vincent L. Broderick, of New York to be row, Friday, September 24, 1976, at 9 Welfare. U.S. district judge for the southern dtstrict a.m. The above nomination was approved sub- of New York. EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS THE POLISH NATIONAL ALLIANCE Toastmaster, Felix Mika. attractive for advertisers to distribute their OF YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO Introduction of, Jack c. Hunter, Mayor, brochures unaddressed, as newspaper sup­ Youngstown, Ohio. • plements for instance, than to distribute Introduction of guests, Toastmaster. them separately to specific people or ad­ HON. CHARLES J. CARNEY Presentation of honoree, Mary C. Grabow­ dresses. OF 01!110 ski, Commissioner District 9, PNA. "Our members should be able to use pri­ Main speaker, Aloysius A. Mazewski, Presi­ vate delivery companies to deliver advertis­ IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES dent PNA. ing material just as can be done for maga­ Thursday, September 23, 1976 Presentation of deb't~tantes, Mary C.
    [Show full text]
  • Panama Treaty 9 77
    Collection: Office of the Chief of Staff Files Series: Hamilton Jordan's Confidential Files Folder: Panama Canal Treaty 9/77 Container: 36 Folder Citation: Office of the Chief of Staff Files, Hamilton Jordan's Confidential Files, Panama Canal Treaty 9/77, Container 36 NATIONAL ARCHIVES ANO RECORDSSe'RVIC'E ~~7'",,!:.;, WITHDRAWAL SHEET (PRESIDENTIALLlBR~~IESj FORM OF CORRESPONDENTS OR TITLE DATE RESTRICTION DOCUMENT caDle American Imbassy Panama to Secretary of State '/27/77 memo Panama Canal treaty negotiations (S PP.) ca. '/27 A memo aicE Inderfurth to IJ '1'/77 A memo Elmer T. Irooks to ZI '1'/77 A ..,b thomson to 3C ..... ~~ I} ~tI~o '/2'/7~ ...... - ----"------,----,---,-,-,---,- ----'-1---'"--''' FILE LOCATION Chief of Staff (Jordan)/lox , of • (org.)/Panama Canal Treaty~Sept. 1'77 RESTRICTION CODES (A) Closed by Executive Order 12065 governing access to national security information. I B) Closed by statute or by the agency which originated the document. IC) Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in the donor's deed of gift. GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION GSA FORM 7122 (REV. 1-81) MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINCTO!': MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT FROM: HAMILTON JORDAN 1-1.9. DATE: AUGUST 30, 1977 SUBJECT: PANAMA CANAL ENDORSEMENTS 1. The AFL-CIO Executive Council officially adopted :::::',:-·· :.... ·;;h~i: -: a strong statement in favor of the new Panama .~'",. , .:.; Canal Treaties today. Mr. Meany, in a press con­ ference afterwards, said that the resolution "means full support, using whatever influence we have on Fi· Members of Congress - it certainly means lobbying." In addition, we have a commitment from John Williams, ...... President of the Panama Canal Pilots Association, and from Al Walsh of the Canal Zone AFL-CIO, to testify q~11 ~llli, at Senate hearings that the employee provisions / -~ ...
    [Show full text]
  • People Power: the Everyday Politics of Democratic Resistance in Burma and the Philippines
    People Power: The Everyday Politics of Democratic Resistance in Burma and the Philippines Nicholas Henry A thesis submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations Victoria University of Wellington 2011 ii ... the tale he had to tell could not be one of a final victory. It could be only the record of what had had to be done, and what assuredly would have to be done again in the never ending fight against terror and its relentless onslaughts, despite their personal afflictions, by all who, while unable to be saints but refusing to bow down to pestilences, strive their utmost to be healers. Albert Camus, The Plague This thesis is dedicated to all those who, resisting the terror of state violence, continue to do what has to be done. iii Abstract How do Community Based Organisations (CBOs) in Burma and the Philippines participate in the construction of political legitimacy through their engagement in local and international politics? What can this tell us about the agency of non-state actors in international relations? This thesis explores the practices of non-state actors engaged in political resistance in Burma and the Philippines. The everyday dynamics of political legitimacy are examined in relation to popular consent, political violence, and the influence of international actors and norms. The empirical research in this thesis is based on a grounded theory analysis of in-depth semi-structured interviews with a wide cross-section of spokespeople and activists of opposition groups from Burma, and with spokespeople of opposition groups in the Philippines.
    [Show full text]
  • CONGRESSIONAL RECORD— Extensions of Remarks E559 HON
    April 2, 1998 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Ð Extensions of Remarks E559 Members of the Congressional Hispanic Cau- TRIBUTE TO DR. AND MRS. country in welcoming His Excellency, Fidel cus (CHC). During their meeting with the CHARLES AND REBECCA GUNNOE Valdez Ramos, the President of the Republic CHC, we had the opportunity to discuss the of the Philippines, to the United States as he political and economic integration process of HON. KEN CALVERT visits our nation's capital next week. MERCOSUR and the effects of this free-trade OF CALIFORNIA As with the island of Guam, the rest of the pact on the United States economy. IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES United States have for over a century shared historic, cultural, political and economic ties Data from the Department of Commerce on Wednesday, April 1, 1998 the current balance of trade between with the Republic of the Philippines. President MERCOSUR and the United States shows Mr. CALVERT. Mr. Speaker, throughout this Ramos is the embodiment of these ties. He that the United States not only enjoys a sur- country of ours there are a few individuals comes from very respected and prominent plus in trade with MERCOSUR, but also re- who, because they contribute so generously of families in the Philippines. His Father Narciso veals that exports to MERCOSUR countries their time and talents to help others, are rec- Ramos was a lawyer, crusading journalist, and are significantly larger than those to China and ognized as pillars of their community. Charles five-term member of the Philippine House of Russia together, $23.3 billion versus $16 bil- and Rebecca Gunnoe are two individuals who Representatives, who was later appointed lion.
    [Show full text]
  • Wanting, Not Waiting
    WINNERSdateline OF THE OVERSEAS PRESS CLUB AWARDS 2011 Wanting, Not Waiting 2012 Another Year of Uprisings SPECIAL EDITION dateline 2012 1 letter from the president ne year ago, at our last OPC Awards gala, paying tribute to two of our most courageous fallen heroes, I hardly imagined that I would be standing in the same position again with the identical burden. While last year, we faced the sad task of recognizing the lives and careers of two Oincomparable photographers, Tim Hetherington and Chris Hondros, this year our attention turns to two writers — The New York Times’ Anthony Shadid and Marie Colvin of The Sunday Times of London. While our focus then was on the horrors of Gadhafi’s Libya, it is now the Syria of Bashar al- Assad. All four of these giants of our profession gave their lives in the service of an ideal and a mission that we consider so vital to our way of life — a full, complete and objective understanding of a world that is so all too often contemptuous or ignorant of these values. Theirs are the same talents and accomplishments to which we pay tribute in each of our awards tonight — and that the Overseas Press Club represents every day throughout the year. For our mission, like theirs, does not stop as we file from this room. The OPC has moved resolutely into the digital age but our winners and their skills remain grounded in the most fundamental tenets expressed through words and pictures — unwavering objectivity, unceasing curiosity, vivid story- telling, thought-provoking commentary.
    [Show full text]
  • The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
    Public Diplomacy Division Room Nb123 B-1110 Brussels Belgium Tel.: +32(0)2 707 4414 / 5033 (A/V) Fax: +32(0)2 707 4249 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.nato.int/library Acquisitions List April 2013 New Books and Journal Articles Liste d’acquisitions Avril 2013 Nouveaux livres et articles de revues Division de la Diplomatie Publique Bureau Nb123 B-1110 Bruxelles Belgique Tél.: +32(0)2 707 4414 / 5033 (A/V) Fax: +32(0)2 707 4249 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.nato.int/library How to borrow items from the list below : As a member of the NATO HQ staff you can borrow books (Type: M) for one month, journals (Type: ART) and reference works (Type: REF) for one week. Individuals not belonging to NATO staff can borrow books through their local library via the interlibrary loan system. How to obtain the Multimedia Library publications : All Library publications are available both on the NATO Intranet and Internet websites. Comment emprunter les documents cités ci-dessous : En tant que membre du personnel de l'OTAN vous pouvez emprunter les livres (Type: M) pour un mois, les revues (Type: ART) et les ouvrages de référence (Type: REF) pour une semaine. Les personnes n'appartenant pas au personnel de l'OTAN peuvent s'adresser à leur bibliothèque locale et emprunter les livres via le système de prêt interbibliothèques. Comment obtenir les publications de la Bibliothèque multimédia : Toutes les publications de la Bibliothèque sont disponibles sur les sites Intranet et Internet de l’OTAN.
    [Show full text]
  • Burma Road to Poverty: a Socio-Political Analysis
    THE BURMA ROAD TO POVERTY: A SOCIO-POLITICAL ANALYSIS' MYA MAUNG The recent political upheavals and emergence of what I term the "killing field" in the Socialist Republic of Burma under the military dictatorship of Ne Win and his successors received feverish international attention for the brief period of July through September 1988. Most accounts of these events tended to be journalistic and failed to explain their fundamental roots. This article analyzes and explains these phenomena in terms of two basic perspec- tives: a historical analysis of how the states of political and economic devel- opment are closely interrelated, and a socio-political analysis of the impact of the Burmese Way to Socialism 2, adopted and enforced by the military regime, on the structure and functions of Burmese society. Two main hypotheses of this study are: (1) a simple transfer of ownership of resources from the private to the public sector in the name of equity and justice for all by the military autarchy does not and cannot create efficiency or elevate technology to achieve the utopian dream of economic autarky and (2) the Burmese Way to Socialism, as a policy of social change, has not produced significant and fundamental changes in the social structure, culture, and personality of traditional Burmese society to bring about modernization. In fact, the first hypothesis can be confirmed in light of the vicious circle of direct controls-evasions-controls whereby military mismanagement transformed Burma from "the Rice Bowl of Asia," into the present "Rice Hole of Asia." 3 The second hypothesis is more complex and difficult to verify, yet enough evidence suggests that the tradi- tional authoritarian personalities of the military elite and their actions have reinforced traditional barriers to economic growth.
    [Show full text]
  • [ 1959 ] Appendices
    APPENDIX I ROSTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS (As of 31 December 1959) TOTAL AREA ESTIMATED POPULATION (IN THOUSANDS)* DATE BECAME MEMBER (Square kilometres) Date Total U.N. MEMBER Afghanistan 650,000 1 July 1958 13,000 19 Nov. 1946 Albania 28,748 31 Dec. 1958 1,531 14 Dec. 1955 Argentina 2,778,412 31 Dec. 1959 20,775 24 Oct. 1945 Australia 7,704,159 31 Dec. 1959 10,166 1 Nov. 1945 Austria 83,849 31 Dec. 1958 7,032 14 Dec. 1955 Belgium 30,507 31 Dec. 1958 9,079 27 Dec. 1945 Bolivia 1,098,581 5 Sep. 1959 3,416 14 Nov. 1945 Brazil 8,513,844 1 July 1959 64,216 24 Oct. 1945 Bulgaria 110,669 30 June 1959 7,793 14 Dec. 1955 Burma 677,950 1 July 1959 20,457 19 Apr. 1948 Byelorussian SSR 207,600 15 Jan. 1959 8,055 24 Oct. 1945 Cambodia 172,511 Apr. 1959 4,845 14 Dec. 1955 Canada 9,974,375 1 Dec. 1959 17,650 9 Nov. 1945 Ceylon 65,610 1 July 1958 9,388 14 Dec. 1955 Chile 741,767 31 Aug. 1959 7,494 24 Oct. 1945 China 9,796,973 1 July 1958 678,851 24 Oct. 1945 Colombia 1,138,355 5 July 1959 13,824 5 Nov. 1945 Costa Rica 50,900 31 Dec. 1959 1,150 2 Nov. 1945 Cuba 114,524 28 Jan. 1959 6,638 24 Oct. 1945 Czechoslovakia 127,859 15 Nov. 1959 13,595 24 Oct. 1945 Denmark 43,042 1 July 1958 4,515 24 Oct.
    [Show full text]
  • Chronicle of Parliamentary Elections 2008 Elections Parliamentary of Chronicle Chronicle of Parliamentary Elections Volume 42
    Couverture_Ang:Mise en page 1 22.04.09 17:27 Page1 Print ISSN: 1994-0963 Electronic ISSN: 1994-098X INTER-PARLIAMENTARY UNION CHRONICLE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2008 CHRONICLE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS VOLUME 42 Published annually in English and French since 1967, the Chronicle of Parliamen tary Elections reports on all national legislative elections held throughout the world during a given year. It includes information on the electoral system, the background and outcome of each election as well as statistics on the results, distribution of votes and distribution of seats according to political group, sex and age. The information contained in the Chronicle can also be found in the IPU’s database on national parliaments, PARLINE. PARLINE is accessible on the IPU web site (http://www.ipu.org) and is continually updated. Inter-Parliamentary Union VOLUME 42 5, chemin du Pommier Case postale 330 CH-1218 Le Grand-Saconnex Geneva – Switzerland Tel.: +41 22 919 41 50 Fax: +41 22 919 41 60 2008 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.ipu.org 2008 Chronicle of Parliamentary Elections VOLUME 42 1 January - 31 December 2008 © Inter-Parliamentary Union 2009 Print ISSN: 1994-0963 Electronic ISSN: 1994-098X Photo credits Front cover: Photo AFP/Pascal Pavani Back cover: Photo AFP/Tugela Ridley Inter-Parliamentary Union Office of the Permanent Observer of 5, chemin du Pommier the IPU to the United Nations Case postale 330 220 East 42nd Street CH-1218 Le Grand-Saconnex Suite 3002 Geneva — Switzerland New York, N.Y. 10017 USA Tel.: + 41 22 919
    [Show full text]
  • List of Presidents of the Presidents United Nations General Assembly
    Sixty-seventh session of the General Assembly To convene on United Nations 18 September 2012 List of Presidents of the Presidents United Nations General Assembly Session Year Name Country Sixty-seventh 2012 Mr. Vuk Jeremić (President-elect) Serbia Sixty-sixth 2011 Mr. Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser Qatar Sixty-fifth 2010 Mr. Joseph Deiss Switzerland Sixty-fourth 2009 Dr. Ali Abdussalam Treki Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Tenth emergency special (resumed) 2009 Father Miguel d’Escoto Brockmann Nicaragua Sixty-third 2008 Father Miguel d’Escoto Brockmann Nicaragua Sixty-second 2007 Dr. Srgjan Kerim The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Tenth emergency special (resumed twice) 2006 Sheikha Haya Rashed Al Khalifa Bahrain Sixty-first 2006 Sheikha Haya Rashed Al Khalifa Bahrain Sixtieth 2005 Mr. Jan Eliasson Sweden Twenty-eighth special 2005 Mr. Jean Ping Gabon Fifty-ninth 2004 Mr. Jean Ping Gabon Tenth emergency special (resumed) 2004 Mr. Julian Robert Hunte Saint Lucia (resumed twice) 2003 Mr. Julian Robert Hunte Saint Lucia Fifty-eighth 2003 Mr. Julian Robert Hunte Saint Lucia Fifty-seventh 2002 Mr. Jan Kavan Czech Republic Twenty-seventh special 2002 Mr. Han Seung-soo Republic of Korea Tenth emergency special (resumed twice) 2002 Mr. Han Seung-soo Republic of Korea (resumed) 2001 Mr. Han Seung-soo Republic of Korea Fifty-sixth 2001 Mr. Han Seung-soo Republic of Korea Twenty-sixth special 2001 Mr. Harri Holkeri Finland Twenty-fifth special 2001 Mr. Harri Holkeri Finland Tenth emergency special (resumed) 2000 Mr. Harri Holkeri Finland Fifty-fifth 2000 Mr. Harri Holkeri Finland Twenty-fourth special 2000 Mr. Theo-Ben Gurirab Namibia Twenty-third special 2000 Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Myanmar Security Outlook: a Taxing Year for the Tatmadaw CHAPTER 4
    CHAPTER 4 Myanmar Security Outlook: A Taxing Year for the Tatmadaw Tin Maung Maung Than Introduction 2015 was a landmark year in Myanmar politics. The general election was held on 8 November and the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi (daughter of Myanmar armed forces founder and independence hero General Aung San) won a landslide victory over the incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP; a military-backed party led by ex-military officers and President Thein Sein). This was an unexpected development that could challenge the constitutionally-guaranteed political role of the military. The Tatmadaw (literally “royal force”) or Myanmar Defence Services (MDS) also faced a serious challenge to its primary security role when the defunct Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a renegade ethnic armed organization (EAO), unleashed a furious assault to take over the Kokang Self-Administered Zone (KSAZ; bordering China) leading to a drawn out war of attrition lasting several months and threatening Myanmar-China relations. Tatmadaw: fighting multiple adversaries Despite actively participating in the peace process, launched by President Thein Sein’s elected government since 2011, The MDS found itself engaged in fierce fighting with powerful EAOs in the northern, eastern and south-eastern border regions of Myanmar. In fact, except for the MNDAA, most of these armed groups that engaged in armed conflict with the MDS throughout 2015 were associated with EAOs which had been officially negotiating with the government’s peace-making team toward a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) since March 2014. Moreover, almost all of them had some form of bilateral ceasefire arrangements with the government in the past.
    [Show full text]