PERSISTENCE AND RECURRENCE OF INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT DANIEL R. CASSMAN INTERSCHOOL HONORS PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION STANFORD UNIVERSITY 18 MAY 2010 Abstract This thesis analyzes factors that affect the duration and relapse of internal armed conflicts. I use a data set containing 173 conflicts that occurred worldwide between 1946 and 2008. I find that ethnically diverse, poor, and populous countries are prone to persistent and recurrent internal conflict. I find that decisive victories tend to be more stable than agreements, which in turn are more stable than conflicts that end due to low activity. My research indicates that peacekeepers are highly effective in reducing the chances that a conflict will relapse. Through a set of case studies focused on recurrence, I determine that countries with a large plurality ethnic group and several smaller groups are prone to recurrent conflict. In a second set of case studies, I argue that exogenous support for rebel organizations is crucial to sustaining many persistent conflicts. I stress that negotiators and policymakers must be acutely aware of the risks of recurrence when mediating internal conflicts. I recommend the deployment of peacekeepers to enforce agreements and the inclusion of ethnic minorities in government, especially in situations at high risk of relapse. Finally, I argue that isolating and neutralizing exogenous support for rebels is critical to ending persistent conflicts. i ii Acknowledgments The support, patience, and contributions of many people made this project possible. From providing expert advice to challenging me to explore new directions in my research to simply giving me the encouragement I needed to get writing, your help and generosity enabled me to have an incredible intellectual experience. First, my primary advisor, Professor James Fearon, has worked on this topic with me for over a year now. It was my experience researching for Professor Fearon that inspired me to consider this thesis topic. Since I began working on my thesis, he has helped me with every step of the process—formulating my topic, finding data, analyzing it, and putting my arguments into writing. He was always happy to look at my data and spotted patterns I never would have found myself. He devoted an enormous amount of time to reviewing and discussing my findings and critiquing my writing. I would also like to express my gratitude to the CISAC Interschool Honors Program faculty and staff. Professors Steve Stedman and Tom Fingar ran the honors college in Washington, conducted our thesis seminar, and tirelessly provided their advice on refining my topic and understanding my findings. Michael Sulmeyer, the program teaching assistant, also contributed invaluable feedback and advice. He was frequently willing to meet with me to discuss everything from how to present a three-minute version of my thesis to whether I should attend law school. Finally, Kate Chadwick kept things running smoothly throughout the summer and the beginning of the year and helped me find resources to research my topic. Each of the CISAC honors students also helped me work through this experience. Bertram Ang, Amir Badat, Philippe de Koning, Daniel Leifer, Ashley Lohmann, Raffi iii Mardirosian, Ben Picozzi, Amir Ravandoust, Sam Stone, Guatam Thapar, Son Ca Vu, Georgia Wells, and Hao Yan were, throughout this year, a friendly and supportive group. From our first meetings in early September through our amazing experience in Washington all the way to that final deadline in May, you provided not only insightful feedback and input but also an uncritical group with which to commiserate. Finally, thank you to all the family friends—far too many to list here—that have supported me and put with me for this entire year. Special thanks to Matt, Kate, Whitney, Megan, Stephanie, Annie, and Sam for their remarkable patience and willingness to stick with me throughout the year. Mom, Dad, and Jake, thank you so much for your steadfast love and support, for coming to hear me present my thesis, and for proofing my writing. I could not have done this without you. iv Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................. iii Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................. v Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review .................................................................................. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Literature Review ................................................................................................................................ 6 Persistence and Recurrence ................................................................................................................ 21 Chapter 2: Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................................ 25 Data and Dependent Variables ........................................................................................................... 25 Hypotheses and Independent Variables .............................................................................................. 31 Results .............................................................................................................................................. 38 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 3: Recurrence ........................................................................................................................ 55 Burma ............................................................................................................................................... 57 Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................................. 63 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................................... 68 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 74 Chapter 4: Persistence ......................................................................................................................... 80 Colombia ........................................................................................................................................... 82 Mozambique...................................................................................................................................... 85 Bangladesh ........................................................................................................................................ 90 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 94 Chapter 5: Conclusions and Policy Implications .............................................................................. 102 National Attributes .......................................................................................................................... 103 Conflict Dynamics ........................................................................................................................... 105 Recurrence and Ethnic Demography ................................................................................................ 106 Persistence and Exogenous Rebel Support ....................................................................................... 107 Appendix A: Reclassifications ........................................................................................................... 111 Appendix B: Bivariate Regressions................................................................................................... 112 All Countries ................................................................................................................................... 112 Countries with Conflict .................................................................................................................... 113 References .......................................................................................................................................... 114 v Figures and Tables Tables Table 1 Episode termination data summary ........................................................................................... 37 Table 2 Multivariate regressions: all conflicts, all countries .................................................................... 42 Table 3 Multivariate regressions: government conflicts, all countries ...................................................