May 18, 2012 Projection of the CARB 2008 Emissions Inventory For
May 18, 2012 Projection of the CARB 2008 Emissions Inventory for Northern Mexico to Future Years INTRODUCTION In ERG (2009), the baseline 1999 national emissions inventory for Mexico was projected to the years 2008, 2012, and 2030. These projections were used to extrapolate the year 2008 emissions inventory for Baja California (CARB, 2012) to the years 2023 and 2030 for air quality analyses within southern California. In their analyses, ERG (2009) used projections of population growth, industrial development, and land use planning to estimate future emissions; in many cases, by individual source classification code (SCC). However, this level of detail is beyond the scope of what can be done in the short term. Also, while the emissions inventory generated for Baja California by the CARB (2012) used ERG’s year 2008 inventory as a starting point, the final inventory was appreciably different. In this analysis, the relative changes in emissions growth quantified by ERG for the years 1999, 2008, and 2030 were used to prepare emissions-response curves, which were then used to scale the CARB 2008 inventory to future years. PREPARATION OF EMISSIONS RESPONSE FUNCTIONS The emissions inventories developed by ERG (2009) for the years 1999, 2008, 2012, and 2030 were provided in four broadly defined groups: on-road, non-road, point, and non-point emissions. Within these groups, emissions for CO, NOx, SOx, COT (VOC), PM10 (PM), and NH3 were provided by State and by Municipality. To avoid being confounded by differences in spatial distributions and source classifications, emissions within each group were summed by State and Municipality.
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