A Modeling Study to Assess the Water Availability to Meet Water Demands in the Lower Ebro River Basin
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A modeling study to assess the water availability to meet water demands in the Lower Ebro River Basin Final Thesis developed by: Piñol Alemany, Sheila Directed by: Carol Vilarasau, Ignacio Zagona, Edith Bachelor in: Geological Engineering Barcelona, January 2020 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering SUMMARY Variable hydrology and water use changes may have significant effects on the availability of water resources at a basin scale. This work analyzes these impacts on the management of the lower course of the Ebro River that supplies water to the region of Catalonia, Spain. To perform the analysis, a river system model is developed using the modeling platform, RiverWare. Several scenarios accounting for streamflow reductions and an increase in water demands are evaluated to project future water availability and the basin’s ability to meet its demands. Currently, water demands in the Lower Ebro River basin are satisfied. However, some regions have resulted in low water reliability, especially in agricultural demands. At the horizon 2059, water resources are projected to decrease by 21%. Moreover, water demands have been also considered to increase by 25%. Results on future performance clearly demonstrate an increase in shortages in regions with low reliability, and the appearance of water stress meeting environmental demands. In addition, hydrogeneration performance shows significant reductions due to a decrease in water resources. This study provides the key aspects and a modeling approach for evaluating current and future performance of the Lower Ebro River Basin meeting water demands. It also illustrates the usefulness of river basin modeling tools, such as RiverWare, for river basin planning and management. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I am very grateful to the financial support of the Balsells Scholarship that has given me this great opportunity to undertake my final bachelor thesis at the University of Colorado Boulder. It has been a truly life-changing experience, both professionally and personally. I would like to thank my advisor, Edith Zagona, for hosting and providing me all the support and guidance to develop this project at the Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES). I am grateful to benefit from her knowledge and experience that have inspired me to continue my studies on water resources. I would also to thank David and Mitch and everyone at CADSWES for their advice and support. Many thanks also to Ignacio Carol, my UPC supervisor, for his guidance and attention from the very first moment. I will always be grateful to him for helping me to take this opportunity. I am indebted to all my friends who became a family in Boulder, and who were always so helpful in so many ways. Special thanks to Xavier, Irene, Laura, Raquel, Ken, Mitchel, Kristine, Dianna, and Gabriella. Finally, I would like to thank my family for always believing in me and providing endless support and encouragement to follow my dreams, especially my parents, Hilari and Raquel; and my brother, Patrick. 2 CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 4 1. Background ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Objectives ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3. RiverWare ........................................................................................................................................ 5 4. Structure of the Report .................................................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER 2 – STUDY CONTEXT .......................................................................................................... 7 1. Ebro River Basin Physical Description ........................................................................................ 7 2. Hydrology......................................................................................................................................... 8 3. Climate ........................................................................................................................................... 11 4. Ebro River Basin Development and Management .................................................................. 11 4.1. Management on the Lower Ebro River Basin .................................................................. 13 5. Lower Ebro River Basin Polices and Regulations ................................................................... 13 5.1. Ebro Hydrological Plan 2015-2021 .................................................................................... 14 5.1.1. Considered Water Uses .............................................................................................. 14 5.1.2. Priority of Water Uses .................................................................................................. 14 5.1.3. Environmental Management ....................................................................................... 14 5.1.4. Navigation Management ............................................................................................. 15 5.2. Drought Plan 2018 ............................................................................................................... 15 5.3. Reservoir Operation Criteria ............................................................................................... 15 5.3.1. Flood Control ................................................................................................................. 15 5.3.2. Drought Management .................................................................................................. 15 5.3.3. Water Supply ................................................................................................................. 16 5.3.4. Hydropower Production ............................................................................................... 16 5.3.5. Navigation Management ............................................................................................. 16 5.3.6. Environmental Management ....................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER 3 – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .................................................................................. 17 1. Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 17 2. RiverWare Model Development ................................................................................................. 18 2.1. Model Description ................................................................................................................. 18 2.2. Modeling Assumptions and Simplifications ...................................................................... 20 2.3. Methods ................................................................................................................................. 20 2.3.1. Reach Objects .............................................................................................................. 20 2.3.2. Diversion Objects ......................................................................................................... 21 2.3.3. Reservoirs ..................................................................................................................... 21 1 2.4. Ruleset ................................................................................................................................... 22 2.4.1. Pena Reservoir ............................................................................................................. 22 2.4.2. Guiamets Reservoir ..................................................................................................... 23 2.4.3. Mequinenza Reservoir ................................................................................................. 23 2.4.4. Riba-Roja & Flix Reservoir .......................................................................................... 23 2.4.5. Tivenys Reservoir ......................................................................................................... 24 3. Model Calibration and Validation ............................................................................................... 24 3.1. Model Accuracy Evaluation Criteria .................................................................................. 24 4. Performance Evaluation .............................................................................................................. 25 4.1. Scenarios ............................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.1. Baseline: “Observed period 1997-2019” ................................................................... 25 4.1.2. C1 Future Period 2019-2059: “Reduced hydrology and baseline demands”...... 25 4.1.3. C2 Future Period 2019-2059: “Reduced hydrology and increased demands”… 26 4.2. System Performance Evaluation Criteria .......................................................................... 28 4.2.1. Additional Evaluation Criteria ..................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 4 – MODEL DATA ..............................................................................................................