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Structure and Trends in Climate Parameters Affecting Winegrape Production in Northeast Spain

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Structure and Trends in Climate Parameters Affecting Winegrape Production in Northeast Spain Vol. 38: 1–15, 2008 CLIMATE RESEARCH Printed December 2008 doi: 10.3354/cr00759 Clim Res Published online November 4, 2008 Structure and trends in climate parameters affecting winegrape production in northeast Spain M. C. Ramos1,*, G. V. Jones2, J. A. Martínez-Casasnovas1 1Department of Environment and Soil Science, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida, Spain 2Department of Environmental Studies, Southern Oregon University, Ashland, Oregon 97520, USA ABSTRACT: This study examined the structure and trends of climate parameters important to wine- grape production from 1952 to 2006 in the Alt Penedès, Priorat, and Segrià regions of NE Spain. Aver- age and extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics from 3 stations in the regions were organized into annual, growing season, and phenological growth stage periods and used to assess potential impacts on vineyard and wine quality, and changes in varietal suitability. Results show an overall growing season warming of 1.0 to 2.2°C, with significant increases in heat accumulation indices that are driven mostly by increases in maximum temperature (average Tmax, number of days with Tmax > 90th percentile, and number of days with Tmax > 30°C). Changes in many temperature parameters show moderate to strong relationships with vine and wine parameters in the 3 regions, including earlier phenological events concomitant with warmer growing seasons, higher wine quality with higher ripening diurnal temperature ranges, and reduced production in the warmest vintages. While trends in annual and growing season precipitation were not evident, precipitation during the bloom to véraison period declined significantly for all 3 sites, indicating potential soil moisture stress during this critical growth stage. Shorter-term analysis of crop evapotranspiration (ETc) reveals that the current impact per 1°C of growing season (Apr to Oct) warming is an increase in water demands in the region by 6 to 14%. These observations, combined with climate projections, indicate potential disruption of climate–variety balance, increasing water stress, and challenges in producing quality wines without the adoption of appropriate adaptive measures. KEY WORDS: Winegrapes · Wine · Bioclimatic indices · Climate change · Temperature · Precipitation Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher 1. INTRODUCTION 2002). The need to further understand climate impacts on agriculture is accentuated by the fact that 7 of the 8 Over the last few decades, many researchers have warmest years in the instrumental record of global sur- examined the nature and impacts of climate change in face temperatures have occurred since 2001 (including different regions of the world (Bonell & Sumner 1992, 2007) and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since Jones & Conway 1997, Lee et al. 2000, Osborn et al. 1997. Overall, the global average surface temperature 2000, Kiktev et al. 2002, Salinger 2005), with particular has risen by 0.6 to 0.7°C since the start of the 20th cen- focus on evaluating and predicting the impacts of cli- tury; however, the rate of increase in the last 25 yr has mate change on different agricultural industries (e.g. been >3 times the century-scale trend (IPCC 2007). Kenny et al. 1993, Jones & Davis 2000, Chloupek et al. While changes in average temperatures are evident 2004, Rochette et al. 2004, Maracchi et al. 2005, Greene and important, increasing attention is being paid to & Maxwell 2007, Lobell 2007, Lobell et al. 2007, Todisco the analysis of extreme events, due to their potential & Vergni 2008). Depending on the sensitivity of the impacts on human health (Díaz-Jiménez et al. 2005, crop to climate, warming has the potential to bring Ebi et al. 2006) and agriculture (Easterling et al. about numerous risks and challenges that affect both 2000b, Martínez-Casasnovas et al. 2002, Michael et the quality and quantity of production (Fischer et al. al. 2005). Extreme events are part of the inherent *Email: [email protected] © Inter-Research 2008 · www.int-res.com 2 Clim Res 38: 1–15, 2008 decadal fluctuation in the climate system, but they events and a compression of the growth period, which may also indicate longer-term trends related to affect both wine production and quality (Webb et al. anthropogenic climate change (Adams et al. 2001). 2007). On the other hand, changes in the frequency and dis- Analyses of the impact of climate change on viticul- tribution of precipitation are expected due to in- ture and wine production in Europe have suggested creased rates of the hydrological cycle, likely affect- short-term benefits in terms of more consistent and ing water supplies for both urban and agricultural higher quality production, with lower year-to-year uses. In Europe, for example, Karl (1998), Beniston & variability (Kenny & Harrison 1992, Jones et al. 2005a). Tol (1998), Sumner et al. (2001), and Lana et al. (2003) However, despite these short-term benefits for grow- showed decreasing rainfall trends or changes in sea- ers, winemakers, and connoisseurs, the rise in global sonality of precipitation for much of the Medi- temperatures projected for the next half century may terranean region. The interannual variability of the ultimately bode problems for the wine industry. Small Mediterranean climate makes it difficult to assess ten- changes in growing season temperatures could induce dencies in rainfall distribution patterns and potential shifts in varietal suitability in many regions (Jones et impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, some recent al. 2005a) or necessitate costly adaptation measures studies point out significant changes in extreme both in the vineyard and in the winery. Furthermore, in events such as more frequent and extreme droughts, regions such as Europe, where vines are not irrigated, increases in cool-season precipitation, and warm- either due to legal constraints or supply issues, season drying (Easterling et al. 2000a,b, Ramos 2001, changes in total rainfall or in its distribution through- Sumner et al. 2001, Brunetti et al. 2002, Klein Tank & out the year may have significant effects on water Können 2003, Ramos & Martínez-Casasnovas 2006a). availability for plants, particularly during the warmer Climate change impacts across the agriculture sector periods of the year. will vary, depending on the crop and region. In partic- In 2005, Spain was globally ranked first in area ular, many perennial crops require both adequately planted to winegrapes, with nearly 1.2 million ha, and cold periods for hardening and fruitfulness, and suffi- third in production at nearly 35 million hl (12.5% of ciently warm periods to ripen quality fruit at economi- world production), with the wine industry being one of cally sustainable levels without being overly stressed. the largest industries in the country (The Wine Insti- One such crop system, Vitis vinifera winegrapes, pro- tute; www.wineinstitute.org/resources/worldstatistics/ vides a model system in which to monitor climate article126 and www.wineinstitute.org/resources/world change impacts because of its long history, the narrow statistics/article87. Spain has ~100 distinct wine- climate zones that individual varieties are best suited producing regions, with the majority being referred to to, and the fact that wines have been obsessively tasted as Denominaciones de Origen (DO) (similar to the and rated for quality (Jones et al. 2005a). French appellation controllée system) in which wine Climate affects grapevine growth and fruit and wine production is regulated for quality according to spe- production in many ways. During winter, grapewines cific laws. Regions are classified as either Denomi- need some dormant chilling to effectively set the latent nación de Origen Calificada (DOC; La Rioja and Prio- buds for the coming vintage. During the growing sea- rat only), Denominación de Origen (DO; 67 regions), or son, grapevines need sustained average daily temper- Vinos de la Tierra (VdlT; numerous areas). Given the atures >10°C to initiate growth, followed by sufficient economic and cultural importance of the wine industry heat accumulation to ripen fruits. However, tempera- in Spain and the country’s already warm to hot and dry ture extremes during growth of the berries induce climate for wine production, this research aims to stress, premature véraison, berry abscission, enzyme examine the structure and trends in climate factors activation, and cause less flavor development (Coombe important to wine production in 3 significant wine pro- 1987, Mullins et al. 1992). Frost occurrence and timing duction regions in Spain. The Catalonian region of NE are also significant for grapevines which are favored Spain includes 11 DO wine production areas, with a by low frost risk in spring and fall, and a long frost-free vineyard area of about 115 000 ha representing 18.5% season of 160 to 200 d or more. In terms of moisture of the total area planted with vines in Spain (Fig. 1). requirements, grapevines ideally should start off the For this research, the areas studied include the most growing season with adequate soil moisture for initial important producing areas of Alt Penedès (DO Alt growth, then receive nominal amounts (either natu- Penedès and DO Cava), Priorat (DO Montsant and rally or via irrigation) throughout the growing season. DOC Priorat), and Segrià (DO Costers del Segre). However, many of these climatic ideals have been or Vineyards represent ~80, 31 and 3% of the total culti- will be pushed to their limits in many regions by cli- vated area in Alt Penedès, Priorat, and Segrià, respec- mate change. Additionally, projected scenarios of tively, and together produce a total of 2.4 million hl of warming imply earlier occurrence of phenological wine (6% of the total in Spain) (MAPA 2005). Ramos et al.: Climate an wine production in northeast Spain 3 analysis (Fig. 1). Data for Vilafranca were obtained from INCAVI (Instituto Catalan de la viña y el vino) and for the other 2 stations from the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología. These were the only stations with sufficient records for long- term analysis.
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