An Overview of ’s Nuclear Issues

Report prepared in 2001 by

Wen Bo www.asienhaus.de/public/archiv/china-nuclear-issues-wen-bo.pdf

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Development of Nuclear Weapons

China’s nuclear researches started in early 1940s by a physicist Lu Hefu of Fudan Universtiy. Shortly after the end of World War II, with the hope of acquiring nuclear bombs, the Nationalist Government, then an American ally, sent several Chinese scientists to America to study nuclear technology. However, US government restricted their access to nuclear institutions. In 1946, the Nationalist government delivered 120,000 US$ to a Chinese scientist Zhao Zhongyao and asked him to purchase equipments for nuclear research. Four years later, these equipments finally made its voyage to China, but only to the hands of the Communist China.

By 1953 the Chinese had initiated research leading to the development of nuclear weapons. The decision to develop an independent strategic nuclear force was made no later than early 1956 and was to be implemented within the Twelve-Year Science Plan presented in September 1956 to the Eighth Congress of the China Communist Party.

China began developing nuclear weapons in the late 1950s with substantial Soviet assistance. Before 1960 direct Soviet military assistance had included the provision of advisors and a vast variety of equipment. Of the assistance provided, most significant to China's future strategic nuclear capability were an experimental nuclear reactor, facilities for processing uranium, a cyclotron, and some equipment for a gaseous diffusions plant.

When Sino-Soviet relations cooled in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the Soviet Union withheld plans and data for an atomic bomb, abrogated the agreement on transferring defense technology, and began the withdrawal of Soviet advisers in 1960. Despite the termination of Soviet assistance, China committed itself to continue nuclear weapons development to break "the superpowers' monopoly on nuclear weapons," to ensure Chinese security against the Soviet and United States threats, and to increase Chinese prestige and power internationally.

China made remarkable progress in the 1960s in developing nuclear weapons. In a thirty-two-month period, China successfully exploded its first atomic bomb (October 16, 1964), launched its first nuclear missile (October 25, 1966), and detonated its first hydrogen bomb (June 14, 1967).

Although the Cultural Revolution disrupted the strategic weapons program less than other scientific and educational sectors in China, there was a slowdown in succeeding years. The successes achieved in nuclear research and experimental design work permitted China to begin series production of nuclear (since 1968) and thermonuclear (since 1974) warheads.

One of the objectives of the final series of Chinese nuclear tests was to miniaturize China's nuclear warheads, dropping their weight from 2200 kgs to 700 kgs in order to accommodate the next generation of solid-fueled missile systems.

There is considerable uncertainly in published estimates of the size of the Chinese nuclear - 3 von 13 - weapons stockpile. In the late 1980s it was generally held that China was the world's third-largest nuclear power, possessing a small but credible nuclear deterrent force of 225 to 300 nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Weapon Tests List

Seismic YIELD TEST DATE DELIVERY LAT LONG GOAL REMARKS mb (KT)

CHIC 1 16 Oct 64 22 Tower Fission Design Device weighed 1,550 kg

CHIC 2 14 Oct 65 35 Airdrop Tu-4 CHIC 1 airdrop

CHIC 3 09 May 66 250 Airdrop H-6 TN Development 1st attempt to burn TN fuel

CHIC 4 27 Oct 66 12 Missile DF-2 1,290 kg device

CHIC 5 28 Dec 66 300 Tower TN Development Two-stage

CHIC 6 17 Jun 67 3,300 Airdrop H-6 TN Development 1st full yield TN 2-stage

CHIC 7 24 Dec 67 15-25 Airdrop H-6 TN Development Two-stage failure

CHIC 8 27 Dec 68 3,000 Airdrop H-6 TN Development First use of plutonium

CHIC 9 22 Sep 69 20 Underground -- Purpose unknown

CHIC 10 29 Sep 69 3,400 Airdrop H-6 TN Development --

CHIC 11 14 Oct 70 3,000 Airdrop H-6 TN Development --

CHIC 12 18 Nov 71 15 Surface Effects/Diagnostics TN device

CHIC 13 07 Jan 72 8-20 Airdrop A-5 Weapons Proof Fission device

CHIC 14 17 Mar 72 170 Airdrop -- Probable H-6

27 Jun 73 2000-3000 Airdrop H-6

17 Jun 74 200-1000 Atmospheric

27 Oct 75 5 2-5 Underground 41.40N 88.667E

23 Jan 76 2 Atmospheric

26 Sep 76 10 Atmospheric

17 Oct 76 4.9 10-20 Underground 41.65N 88.66E

17 Nov 76 4000 Atmospheric 41.65N 88.66E

17 Sep 77 over 20 Atmospheric

15 Mar 78 over 20 Atmospheric

14 Oct 78 4.9 20 Shaft 41.45N 88.63E - 4 von 13 -

14 Dec 78 over 20 Atmospheric

13 Sep 79 ?? ??

05 Oct 82 3-15 Underground

04 May 83 4.4 20-100 Tunnel

06 Oct 83 5.5 20-100 Underground 41.55N 88.76E

03 Oct 84 15-70 Underground

19 Dec 84 5-50 Underground

05 Jun 87 LOW Underground

29 Sep 88 4.7 1-20 Tunnel 41.75N 88.46E Neutron bomb

26 May 90 5.4 15-65 Shaft 41.56N 88.68E

16 Aug 90 6.2 50-200 Shaft 41.56N 81.56E

21 May 92 700-1800 Underground

ICBM warhead

25 Sep 92 5.4 1-2 Underground

05 Oct 93 5.8 90 Underground 41.7N 88.6E DF-31 ICBM MIRV warhead

10 Jun 94 5.7 Underground 41.64N 88.86E DF-31 ICBM MIRV warhead?

07 Oct 94 41.55N 89.07E

15 May 95 5.7 Underground 41.63N 88.87E DF-31 ICBM MIRV warhead?

17 Aug 95 5.5 Underground 41.60N 88.86E

08 Jun 96 5.7 Underground 41.65N 88.76E DF-31 ICBM MIRV warhead?

29 Jul 96 4.7 Underground 41.69N 88.35E

Source: Federation of American Scientists

Ranges of Chinese nuclear submarine-launched ballistic missiles Source: Wen Huia Daily, August 27, 2001

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Nuclear Submarine

China currently has several working ballistic missile submarines. The Daqingyu (Xia) class nuclear submarine is likely based at North Sea Naval Fleet in Qingdao. It was reported that China has 12 Julang–1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) deployed. And the new Type 094 nuclear submarine is expected to be in service by 2005 and carries 16 Julang-2 missiles. In late August 2001, China simultaneously launched Juland-21A from three nuclear submarines in the South, East and Yellow Seas and hit the target 5000 km away.

Nuclear Policy

China pursues a national defense policy that is defensive in nature. China's nuclear force is under the direct command of the Central Military Commission (CMC). And the possession of nuclear weapons is for self-defense.

China undertakes not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, and not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states. China does not participate in any nuclear arms race, and never deploys any nuclear weapons beyond its borders. China maintains a small but effective nuclear counterattacking force in order to deter possible nuclear attacks by other countries. Any such attack will inevitably result in a retaliatory nuclear counterstrike by China. China has always kept the number of its nuclear weapons at a low level. The scale, composition and development of China's nuclear force are in line with China's military strategy of active defense. -"China's National Defense in 2000" The Information Office of the State Council, October 16, 2000.

Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament

China advocates the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons. Upon its possession of nuclear weapons, China declared that it would not be the first to use such weapons. Later, China undertook not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states. In May 2000, China, together with US, Russia, Britain and France, issued a joint statement declaring that their nuclear weapons are not targeted at any country.

China supports the efforts of the countries concerned to establish nuclear-weapon-free zones on a voluntary basis, and has undertaken to provide both positive and negative security assurances to non-nuclear-weapon states and nuclear-weapon-free zones. In July 1999, China reached an agreement with ASEAN on the text of the Protocol to the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty and became the first among the five nuclear-weapon states to commit itself to signing the Protocol once its revised text is open for signature. - 6 von 13 -

China also supports all efforts to consolidate and strengthen the international mechanism of nuclear non-proliferation, and has faithfully fulfilled its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In December 1998, China signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the Additional Protocol aimed at strengthening the effectiveness of the IAEA safeguard system, undertaking to report to the IAEA China's nuclear cooperation with non-nuclear-weapon states.

The CTBT is an important milestone in the process of international nuclear disarmament. As one of the first countries to sign the CTBT, China has been actively participating in the work of the Preparatory Commission of the Treaty Organization, and earnestly carrying out preparatory work for the implementation of the Treaty in China. Though such negative developments in the past two years as the nuclear tests in India and Pakistan and the US Senate's refusal to ratify the CTBT, China is still committed to the early ratification of the Treaty, Now, the Chinese government has already completed the necessary preparations and formally submitted the Treaty to the NPC for review and ratification.

China has all along adopted a positive attitude to the negotiation of a convention that prohibits the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons purposes, known as the FMCT. The Chinese government maintains that progress on the issue of the FMCT negotiations is, and will continue to be, closely related to the global peace and security situation. Chinese government also points out that continued nuclear disarmament and the prevention of an arms race in outer space are multilateral fora of arms control that should be given more priority than the FMCT negotiations.

China's contribution to the international nuclear proliferation system

Date Major event

Accession to the IAEA, and implementation of its due obligations in the Statute of the 1-1-1984 IAEA.

Statement on voluntarily based placement of some civilian installation under the IAEA 9-23-1985 safeguards.

9-18-1988 Conclusion with the IAEA on voluntary-offer safeguards agreement (INFCIRC/369).

9-18-1989 The voluntary-offer safeguards agreement became effective.

3-9-1992 Accession to NPT.

Conclusion with the IAEA on protocol addition to the voluntary-offer safeguards 12-31-1998 agreement.

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Nuclear Power Plants

China has ambitious plans to develop nuclear power as a source of energy for electricity generation. It plans to go from the three reactors it operates now to more than 50 reactors by the year 2020. In 1997, China Daily stated that China would spend $60 billion to $100 billion over the next 25 years to construct nuclear power plants. By 2020 six percent of its electricity is projected to come from nuclear power plants.

Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant was designed and constructed by China. The project began under construction in March of 1985 and was put into operation in 1994. Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant is introduced from France. It began to construct in August of 1987 and put into operation in 1994. Its annual generating capacity is 13 billion kilowatt hours of powers.

Feasibility studies on similar plants are under way in Liaoning, China's largest industrial base, and in Jiangsu, , and Shandong provinces.

List of Nuclear Reactors in China

Plant Type Location Status Commercial start Venture type

Daya Bay 1993 PWR Operable Sino-French JV 1

Daya Bay 1994 PWR Guangdong Operable Sino-French JV 2

Shenzhen, Under 2002 Ling’ao 1 PWR Sino-French JV Guangdong construction

Shenzhen, Under 2003 Ling’ao 2 PWR Sino-French JV Guangdong construction

Qinshan 1 PWR Zhejiang Operable 1991 Domestic

Under 2000 Qinshan 2 PWR Zhejiang Domestic construction

Under 2001. Qinshan 3 PWR Zhejiang Domestic construction

Lianyungang Under 2004 Tianwan PWR Sino-Russian JV of Jiangsu construction

Sources: People’s Daily, International Nuclear Safety Center - 8 von 13 -

Source: International Nuclear Safety Center

Uranium Mining

China's nuclear weapons and nuclear power programs are supported by a number of uranium mines. China's uranium deposits are located in the provinces of southern Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, southern Jiansu, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang. Additional reports suggest other deposits in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and northeast China. The largest uranium mining endeavors are located in the province of Guangdong. Between 1979 and 1985 new uranium deposit discoveries averaged 10 per year. Exact reserve figures are not publicly reported, although some western sources in 1985 had estimated reserves at 800,000 tones. Figures quoted for China's uranium deposits support the notion that nuclear driven power plants could be supplied for the mid-to-long term. More recent sources calculate reserves for China's uranium deposits at 1.7 million tons, with China needing 250,000-300,000 tons by 2020.

Although peaceful nuclear endeavors were not undertaken until recent years, China has been mining uranium since the 1950s. As of 1985, approximately 80% of total uranium extraction occurred through underground mining techniques; the open-pit mining process accounted for the remaining uranium extracted. China's mining capabilities, thus, are adequate and the country possesses a nuclear fuel production system that is fairly complete.

However, the environmental and health impact of uranium mining has not been widely publicized. An interview by author in 1991 with a uranium mining community member in Jiangxi Province revealed that animals’ birth defects occurred frequently around local area.

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Known Uranium Mines in China

• Benxi, Liaoning Province • Chen Xian, Hunan Province • Chongyi • Da Pu • Lantian, Shanxi Province • Lianxian • Linxian • Shangrao, Jiangxi Province • Tongxian • Tengchong (ISL), Yunnan Province • Yining (ISL), Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

*** Guang Yuan, Sichuan province; Plutonium Production Reaction Jiu Quan, Gansu province, Plutonium Production Reaction Yi Bin, Sichuan province, Plutonium processing

Source: Federation of American Scientists

Annual Uranium Demand (Unit: Million Pound U3O8):

Country 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S.A. 46.94 52.91 38.22 37.05 30.35 23.36

China 1.17 1.15 2.76 5.53 6.86 9.05

India 1.31 1.33 1.46 2.08 3.09 1.25

Japan 18.73 27.54 30.77 18.53 22.83 23.24

North Korea 4.86 8.96 5.66 6.42 9.40 9.05

Taiwan 2.86 1.08 5.10 2.18 4.56 3.15

Source: US Energy Information Administration

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Nuclear Waste

Nuclear waste treatment

In the mid-1990s, Chin began building its first four radioactive waste disposal centers. According to the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), these centers, located in northwest, southwest, east, and south China store and treat low-and intermediate-level wastes.

China has also been researching a deep geologic disposal program for high-level wastes, and national standards are being developed to regulate the release of radiation into the environment.

Up to July 2001, China has already built 25 radioactive waste storerooms. Most of the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have their own radioactive waste storerooms. So far, the storerooms already stored 13,000 radiation waste sources and 7,000 cubic meters of radioactivity solid wastes.

Presently, nuclear waste generated by power plant is stored on site. This is particularly a problem for high- level radioactive waste. China has become adept at applying technology used to treat low-to-mid-level waste, but China is still researching the glass solidification technology to cope with high- level waste that accounts for 99% of the total man-made radioactive nuclear waste volume.

Shipment of nuclear waste from Taiwan to Mainland China

China and Taipei had talked around 1993 on a plan to jointly develop a massive dumpsite in China for Taiwan's stockpile of radioactive waste. The plan under discussion calls for the establishment of a private, joint-venture corporation to build and manage a long-term disposal facility in China with money from Taiwan. Western consultants would provide the technology. International banks would fund much of the estimated US$1 billion construction cost.

The dump would be large enough for Taiwan's existing radioactive stockpile plus all the low-level waste produced by both countries for the next four decades. It is reported that Chinese government have recommended the existing dumping facilities in Northwest China.

Taipei Time reported on March 13, 2000 that China and Taipower had signed a letter of intent with China to ship Taiwan’s nuclear waste to the mainland. A local Taiwan Chinese-language newspaper also reported that Taipower had signed the memorandum in Hong Kong two months before with a Chinese nuclear company "affiliated with an official nuclear agency.” Under the contract, China will dispose of 210,000 drums of nuclear waste currently stored on Orchid Island and three nuclear power plants around the island.

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Regardless the reliability of these reports, there are serious obstacles concerning the deal. China required Taiwan to admit that there is only one China, thus nuclear waste transfer from Taiwan to the Mainland China would be a domestic issue and abide by Basel Convention. Another issue is Taipei's ban on direct shipping links with China. Unless the ban is relaxed, waste transports for China would have to be shipped via a third country.

Nuclear Accident Prevention

One concern with respect to nuclear energy is the illegal smuggling of nuclear fuels, in particular by former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries. To date, however, China's State Atomic Energy Agency has not encountered loss due to illegal activities and has taken strides in reinforcing nuclear fuel management.

Another issue related to the topic of nuclear safety, is the geological stability of the land on which nuclear power plant was constructed, Take the Daya Bay plant for example, according to some Hong Kong nuclear opponents, China's government withheld specific parts of a feasibility study which exposed concerns directly related to the geological facets of the Daya Bay location. Geologically, the site's surrounding area does not contain any deep faults, and no earthquake activity above 7 on the Richter scale had been experienced in over 1,000 years. Based on this geological survey, Daya Bay plant was designed and constructed to withstand an earthquake at the 8 level. Even so, in 1987 the Shuitou-Xichong fault first appeared on Chinese seismic maps, located less than five miles from the Daya Bay site.

In 1993, China’s Ministry of Health established a Center for Medical Assistance in Nuclear Accidents (CMANA). The CMANA functions as a national, professional institute for medical assistance in nuclear accidents including drafting of the National Emergency Program for Nuclear and Radiological Accidents, preparing medical responses and assistance for accidents, and developing medical treatment for injured persons in nuclear and radiological accidents.

Anti-Nuclear Efforts

There is very limited media coverage of nuclear issues in China. The few published stories are mostly focus on achievement of nuclear power plants. Consequently, there has been lack of awareness among the citizens about the environmental impacts of nuclear testing and nuclear power production, the generation of radioactive waste, and the potential for devastating nuclear accidents.

Chinese premier Zhu Rongji seems to be critical to nuclear power. He is now openly challenging nuclear advocates to justify their reactor construction projects. Zhu has discovered there are more - 12 von 13 - urgent problems than construction of new nuclear plants: the power grid is so badly managed that 35% of all electricity produced gets lost. Premier Zhu strongly favors instead a 15-year plan to improve the grid and to create a unified national grid. By comparison, grid losses in Western Europe are about 4%-5%. It is quite clear that building new nuclear is of no avail if more than one-third of the generated electricity is lost during transport.

Protests against China nuclear tests and nuclear power plants are most from international community. In 1994, When the Daya Bay nuclear power plant project was negotiated, the plan sparked widespread debates and protests from Hong Kong citizen groups.

In 1995, five Greenpeace international activists flew to Beijing and revealed a banner on Tiananmen Square protesting China’s planned nuclear tests. They were deported out of the country shortly after being stopped. Subsequently, MV Greenpeace ship voyaged to Shanghai and delivered its protest again in 1996.

Greenpeace Hong Kong’s nuclear campaign had mostly focused on highlighting nuclear waste transfer from Taiwan to North Korea. Due to sensitivity of nuclear campaign work in China, Greenpeace Hong Kong decided to put nuclear campaign aside.

Conclusion

It is of great economical and political interest that China will not conduct new nuclear tests in the coming years. But given its political and security concerns, China will not easily give up its procession of nuclear weapons. And growing American military presence in Asia, development of expanded missile defense system known as “ Star War”, together with emerge of nuclear states in South Asia, offer little incentive for China to reduce its nuclear forces.

China’s rapid economic development will continue to put huge demand on energy. Some policy-makers still view nuclear power as a solution. The number of nuclear power plants will grow. The government should establish measures that would effective monitor nuclear facilities and hold officials responsible for safety. Governmental agencies also need to keep the citizens informed about health risk related with nuclear, ranging from uranium mining to potential nuclear accidents. Environmental groups should work to raise awareness on nuclear hazards and ensure the government to fulfill its duty.

The public will unlikely be informed about routes of nuclear wastes transfer in China. The government should and must ensure safety of radioactive wastes transportation. At present, though Chinese nuclear waste treatment centers operate under their capacities, the country will unlikely follow Russia’s step to import nuclear wastes from other countries and regions.

Huge costs and potential risk of nuclear power are still being underestimated in China. And the country’s vast resources for renewable energy have yet to be tapped. China needs to adjust its energy policy and aggressively promote the renewables as an alternative for nuclear power. - 13 von 13 -

Reference:

Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/nuke/index.html

People’s Daily: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/features/NDpaper/nd.html

China Atomic Energy Authority http://www.caea.gov.cn/english/nuclear1.html

The first-stage Tianwan Nuclear Power Station is developed overall, People's Daily, July 3, 2001

Wang Ya, China established 25 storerooms of radioactive wastes, China Environment News, June 22, 2001

China planning reactors, waste centers, China Daily (Hong Kong), Nov. 9, 1993

China offers site for Taiwan nuclear waste, Far Eastern Economic Review, March 1993

China may drop nuclear projects, Nucleonics Week, March 4, 1999 http://www.antenna.nl/wise http://www.antenna.nl/wise/395-6/3858.html

China agrees to take nuclear waste, Taipei Times, March 13, 2000

Liu Yin & Qin Bin, The Medical Response to Nuclear and Radiological Accidents in China, Center for Medical Assistance in Nuclear Accidents, Ministry of Health http://pdm.medicine.wisc.edu/Ying1.htm