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Empidonax Traillii Extimus) Breeding Habitat and a Simulation of Potential Effects of Tamarisk Leaf Beetles (Diorhabda Spp.), Southwestern United States

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Empidonax Traillii Extimus) Breeding Habitat and a Simulation of Potential Effects of Tamarisk Leaf Beetles (Diorhabda Spp.), Southwestern United States A Satellite Model of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) Breeding Habitat and a Simulation of Potential Effects of Tamarisk Leaf Beetles (Diorhabda spp.), Southwestern United States Open-File Report 2016–1120 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey A Satellite Model of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) Breeding Habitat and a Simulation of Potential Effects of Tamarisk Leaf Beetles (Diorhabda spp.), Southwestern United States By James R. Hatten Open-File Report 2016–1120 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2016 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747). For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.http://www.store.usgs.gov. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Hatten, J.R., 2016, A satellite model of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) breeding habitat and a simulation of potential effects of tamarisk leaf beetles (Diorhabda spp.), Southwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1120, 88 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161120. ISSN 2331-1258 (online)] Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Methods ...................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Satellite-Based Habitat Predictions ......................................................................................................................... 6 Geospatial Database ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Application of the Satellite Model ...................................................................................................................... 12 Accuracy Assessment ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Summarization and Display of Model Results ................................................................................................... 14 Habitat Change Detection ................................................................................................................................. 14 Tamarisk Leaf Beetle Impact Assessment ............................................................................................................ 14 Habitat Time Series ........................................................................................................................................... 15 Virgin River Beetle-Impact Analysis ................................................................................................................... 16 Lower Colorado River Beetle-Impact Simulation ............................................................................................... 18 Upper Gila River Beetle-Impact Simulation ....................................................................................................... 20 Results ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Satellite-Based Habitat Predictions ....................................................................................................................... 22 Rangewide ........................................................................................................................................................ 22 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Management Units ............................................................................................ 23 7.5-Minute Quadrangles .................................................................................................................................... 27 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Critical-Habitat Reaches .................................................................................... 32 Model Accuracy ................................................................................................................................................. 35 Habitat Change Detection ................................................................................................................................. 47 Tamarisk Leaf Beetle Impact Assessment ............................................................................................................ 51 Lower Virgin River ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Upper Gila River ................................................................................................................................................ 61 Discussion ................................................................................................................................................................ 65 Key Findings and a Path Forward ......................................................................................................................... 65 Habitat Change Detection ..................................................................................................................................... 66 Rangewide Ranking of Flycatcher Breeding Habitat ............................................................................................. 68 Accuracy Assessment ........................................................................................................................................... 68 Beetle-Impact Analysis and Simulations ............................................................................................................... 69 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................................................ 70 Occupancy Modeling ......................................................................................................................................... 70 Automated Cloud-Based Mapping ..................................................................................................................... 70 Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................................................... 71 References Cited ...................................................................................................................................................... 71 Appendix A. Metadata for Landsat Scenes Used in Regionwide Mapping and Habitat Time Series ....................... 75 Appendix B. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Conversions for Landsat 8 ....................................... 83 Figures Figure 1. Maps showing location of the project area and the 35 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Southwestern Willow Flycatcher management unit boundaries, designated critical-habitat reaches, and waterbodies considered by the satellite model for regionwide modeling, Southwestern United States. ......................................... 3 iii Figure 2. Map showing yearly distribution of tamarisk beetles (Diorhabda spp.) throughout Western United States, 2007–14. (Map produced by the Tamarisk Coalition.) .......................................................... 5 Figure 3. Map showing paths and rows of 57 Landsat scenes overlapping breeding range of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher, Southwestern United States. ................................................................................. 7 Figure 4. Map showing all fourth-order or larger streams and waterbodies, plus lakes greater than 1 square kilometer, and two elevation zones (1) below 1,524 m, and (2) above 1,524 m. ....................................................... 9 Figure 5. Map showing urban and agriculture areas identified and masked (that is, excluded) from the satellite model. ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 6. Maps showing effects of masking on output from satellite model at confluence of the Colorado and Gila Rivers, Arizona and California ................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 7. Map showing locations of 758 Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (SWFL) territories that were used for model verification overlaid on 35 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service management
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