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Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast

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Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES OF RAS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES: FACTS, TRENDS, FORECAST 4 (16) 2011 The journal is published according to the decision of RAS economic institutions’ administration in the North-West federal district Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North Komi scientific centre of the Ural RAS department (Komi Republic) Institute of Economics of Karelian scientific centre of RAS (Karelia Republic) G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola scientific centre of RAS (the Murmansk region) Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS (the Vologda region) and according to the decision of St. Petersburg State University of Engineering and Economics administration and other RF regions Institute of Social and Economic Research of Ufa Science Centre of RAS (Bashkortostan Republic) The decision of Presidium of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian MES (№6/6, dated 19.02.2010) the journal is included in the list of leading scientific editions, recommended for publication of the main results of dissertations for the degree of Doctor and Candidate of Sciences. Editorial council: RAS academician V.L. Makarov (Moscow, Russia) RAS academician V.V. Ivanter (Moscow, Russia) Belarus NAS academician P.A. Vityaz (Minsk, Belarus) Belarus NAS academician P.G. Nikitenko (Minsk, Belarus) RAS corresponding member V.N. Lazhentsev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Professor J. Sapir (Paris, France) Doctor of Economics, professor S.D. Valentey (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor D.A. Gaynanov (Ufa, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor O.V. Goncharuk (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor V.A. Ilyin (Vologda, Russia) Professor M. Kivinen (Helsinki, Finland) Doctor of Sociology, professor I.V. Kotlyarov (Minsk, Belarus) Doctor of Economics, professor S.V. Kuznetsov (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor F.D. Larichkin (Apatity, Russia) Doctor of Technics, professor A.V. Putilov (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Technical Sciences Yu.Ya. Chukreev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Doctor of Technics, professor A.I. Shishkin (Petrozavodsk, Russia) Doctor, professor Zhang Shuhua (Beijing, China) Professor Wu Enyuan (Beijing, China) Chief editor – V.A. Ilyin Editorial board: Doctor of Economics, professor L.A. Anosova Doctor of Economics, professor A.G. Vorobyov Doctor of Economics, professor E.S. Gubanova Ph.D. in History K.A. Gulin (deputy chief editor) Ph.D. in Economics K.A. Zadumkin Ph.D. in Economics G.V. Leonidova Ph.D. in Economics M.F. Sychev (deputy chief editor) Ph.D. in Economics S.V. Terebova Doctor of Economics T.V. Uskova, Ph.D. in Economics A.A. Shabunova Opinions presented in the articles can differ from the editorial board’s point of view Authors of the articles are responsible for the material selected and stated. ISSN 1998-0698 © ISEDT RAS, 2011 Internet address: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru CONTENT FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Ilyin V.A. ....................................................................................................................... 5 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Safonova Yu.A. The nature of large-scale financial and economic crises and latent world management .................................................................................. 10 Fadeev A.M., Cherepovitsyn A.E., Larichkin F.D. Industrial potential of Murmansk region in the development of Arctic shelf hydrocarbon resources ........................ 21 Kondakov I.A. Modernization of the russian economy as the imperative of the country’s prospective innovative development ......................................................... 34 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Medvedeva E.I., Kroshilin S.V. Electronic education and innovative economy development in Russia ............................................................................. 47 Shakhotko L.P. Demographic problems of the Republic of Belarus and their solutions .... 60 Molchanova E.V., Bazarova E.N. Influence of socio-economic factors on suicide behavior .................................................................................................. 71 BRANCH-WISE AND REGIONAL ECONOMY Ponomarenko T.V., Larichkin F.D. The competitive status of the mining company: mechanisms of formation and management .............................................. 82 Ivanov V.A., Ponomareva A.S. Methodological foundations of sustainable development of the agricultural sector ....................................................... 93 NATURE MANAGEMENT Druzhinin P.V., Shkiperova G.T. Estimation of the possibility of reducing the environmental burden during the transition to innovative development .......................................................................................... 104 МODELING AND INFORMATICS Polyansky A.M. Representation of subjects’ capacities in an architectural model of the information system ............................................................. 113 CONTINUING THE THEME OF THE PREVIOUS ISSUE Barasheva T.I. Small-scale business subjects’ activity intensification as a necessary condition of the regional development .................................................... 122 Bogomolova L.L., Takmasheva I.V. Actual problems of small business development in the Khantia-Mansia Autonomous Okrug – Ugra ................................. 131 FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR From the Chief Editor By August, 2011 three years had passed since the moment when the world financial and economic crisis had taken place in the Russian Federation and influenced its economy greater than in the leading advanced states. It was the result of frailty and inefficiency of the extremely liberal financial and economic policy of the country. Also in August, 2011 the 20th anniversary of forming the State Committee on Emergency for the Soviet Union’s Rescue was observed, to be more exact, its imitation which became the starting point of the Vladimir A. ILYIN final disintegration of the USSR. Doctor of Economics The mechanisms for the Russian economy’s liberalization started Professor in the Russian Federation afterwards, were unprecedented in their Honored Scientist of the RF rapidity and in the scale of the public property’s privatization. The Director of ISEDT RAS shock therapy and the default of the year of 1998 brought the country [email protected] to the state when the imperious elite had to search the candidate for Yeltsin’s replacement. Taking the post of the President of the Russian Federation by V. Putin in 2000 considerably stabilized the country’s position in many vital spheres. As S.G. Kara-Murza marks, within the recent decade “…the situation, as they say, was “frozen”, turned into the mode of the slowed down degradation. It made people calm down a little”. “Putin’s stabilization program, maybe, became the best model in the history of the market reforms … But step by step it turned to the stagnation model”1. Kara-Murza gives a number of diagrams which precisely show the dynamics of de-industrialization and easing of the national economy on a number of major indicators. The fact that the model of the market reforms existing in the Russian Federation leads to stagnation, is also understood by the Prime-Minister V. Putin who started the updating of the Concept of the long-term socio-economic development of the country till 2020, approved by the Government in 2008, within the new political cycle of parliamentary and presidential elections. As V. Putin announced at his last report in the State Duma: “…with 1 Kara-Murza S.G. It’s a difficult task to elaborate the acceptable doctrine till 2020 within the existing political system // Russia’s Strategy 2020. Particular point of view. “Round Table” Discussion’s Materials. – M.: Scientific Expert, 2011. – Pp. 92-93. Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (16) 2011 5 FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Figure 1. Indexes of the gross national product, capital investments into the fixed capital, retail commodity circulation in Russia, 1990 = 100 225 200 175 150 RetailРозничный commodity товароборот circulation 125 GrossВВП national product InvestmentИнвестиции 100 75 50 25 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 the participation of experts we are completing Figure 2. Production of bearings “Strategy 2020”, first of all the question is the in Russia, million units search of the new growth reserves, the correct 840 priorities’ arrangement”. 720 One of the experts, academician V.L. Ma- 600 karov, notes: “The Prime-Minister spoke in details, that nowadays Russia needs stable 480 development. It means that everything that 360 was made was more or less correct, and it is just 240 necessary to make various correct amendments. Once thousand experts are involved, it is clear 120 that correct amendments will be made in 0 any case. But the general line will apparently 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 remain the same”2. Professor S.S. Sulakshin considers that “… Figure 3. Tractors’ production in the for today the liberal and, we shall tell directly, USSR and in the CIS, thousand units the deadlock model represented in the concept 700 of the year of 2008, is reproduced in the materials of the expert group under V.A. Mau’s and 600 E.G. Yasin’s guidance, even with the elements 500 of radicalization. This model is semi-sovereign because the 400 major economic regulator – the Central Bank 300 of Russia – carries out the issue according to 200 the uncontrollable Russian circumstances. It’s asocial because it refuses redistribution and the 100 progressive taxation. 0 2 Russia’s Strategy
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