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Migration and Mobility Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Europe andCentralAsiaEconomicUpdate WORLD BANK ECA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 Migration and Mobility Office of the Chief Economist © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 20 19 18 17 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2017. “Migration and Mobility.” Europe and Central Asia Economic Update (October), Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10.1596/ 978-1-4648-1219-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party- owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1219-4 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1219-4 Cover design: World Bank Contents Acknowledgments ...................................................vii Abbreviations .......................................................ix Country Groups ......................................................xi Executive Summary ..................................................xiii PART I. Economic Outlook ..........................1 1. Economic Developments and Prospects ..................3 Overview .........................................................3 GDP growth is strong throughout the region .............................5 ECA is outperforming the rest of the world in exports ......................6 Inflation has normalized and unemployment fallen ........................9 Fiscal positions in the region are consistent with much improved cyclical conditions ..............................................11 New technologies have created daunting labor market challenges ..........11 Low interest rates, vulnerable banking sectors, and new technologies pose financial risks. .12 Regional political and economic cohesion is being tested .................14 The greatest structural challenge is the sweeping change in relative prices in eastern ECA. .15 References ......................................................17 2. Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia ........19 Overview ........................................................19 The refugee crisis is raising Europeans’ concerns about migration ...........20 Migration has long helped Europeans respond to economic and political challenges .............................................27 Migration patterns in ECA are likely to change ..........................29 Policies should remain supportive of migration ..........................34 Conclusion ......................................................46 Annex. List of Countries for Which Data Are Available ....................47 Notes ..........................................................50 References ......................................................51 PART II. Selected Country Pages ....................57 Albania .........................................................59 Armenia ........................................................61 Azerbaijan .......................................................63 Belarus .........................................................65 iii iv ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017 Bosnia and Herzegovina ............................................67 Bulgaria .........................................................69 Croatia .........................................................71 Georgia .........................................................73 Kazakhstan ......................................................75 Kosovo .........................................................77 Kyrgyz Republic ..................................................79 Macedonia FYR ...................................................81 Moldova ........................................................83 Montenegro .....................................................85 Poland ..........................................................87 Romania ........................................................89 Russian Federation ................................................91 Serbia ..........................................................93 Tajikistan ........................................................95 Turkey ..........................................................97 Turkmenistan .....................................................99 Ukraine ........................................................101 Uzbekistan .....................................................103 Boxes 2.1 Glossary: Migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers .................... 21 2.2 What affects public perceptions of immigration? ..................... 24 2.3 The globalization of education ................................... 32 2.4 How do migration and connectivity affect growth? ................... 35 Figures 1.1 Industrial production has strengthened, in the region and globally ........ 7 1.2 Slowdown in China has not led to slowdown elsewhere ................. 7 1.3 Europe and Central Asia outperforms the rest of the world in exports ..... 8 1.4 EU accession countries outperformed China in export markets ........... 9 1.5 The unemployment rate in the EU-28 has fallen back to pre-crisis levels ... 10 1.6. German unemployment has reversed the upward trend ............... 10 1.7 Oil-exporting and remittance-receiving countries experienced strong real depreciations ................................................. 16 2.1 The stock of refugees has risen, globally and in Europe and Central Asia .. 20 2.2 Survey respondents have cited immigration and terrorism as the most important issues facing the European Union since November 2015 ...... 22 2.3 Public perceptions of immigration are more positive in Northern Europe than in the rest of the region ..................................... 23 B2.2.1 People in the European Union are more accepting of immigration from other EU member states than from outside the European Union ......... 24 B2.2.2 Opposition to migration is more economic than cultural ............... 25 2.4 The vast majority of refugees and asylum seekers in Europe and Central Asia now come from the Middle East and North Africa .......... 26 2.5 Asylum rejection rates in the European Union are high ................ 27 2.6 The share of high-skilled immigrants in OECD countries increased between 2000 and 2010 ........................................ 30 2.7 ECA countries increasingly aim to attract high-skilled immigrants ........ 31 Contents ● v B2.3.1 Most top ECA destinations attracted more international tertiary students in 2014 than in 2004 .................................... 32 B2.3.2 Most source countries of international tertiary students are in ECA ....... 32 B2.3.3 ECA hosted half of the world’s tertiary students in 2014 ............... 33 B2.3.4 Top 10 corridors of international tertiary students with ECA hosts ........ 33 2.8 The share of temporary employment increased in Europe and Central Asia between 2002 and 2016 ...................................
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