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Home , European emigration, Northern Europe

ESPACE, POPULATIONS, SOCIETES, 2004-3 pp. 519-531

Corrado BONIFAZI Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione e le Politiche Marija MAMOLO Sociali IRPPS via Nizza, 128 Roma Italie [email protected]

Past and Current Trends of Balkan Migrations

INTRODUCTION

There is hardly another of the world aspects of the [Prévélakis, 1994], where the current situation of migrations is affecting their specific nature also with still considerably influenced by the past his- regard to migration. However, the migration tory as in the Balkans. Migrations have been outlook of the Balkans does not just involve a fundamental element in the history of the these flows, which in some respects tend to Balkans, accompanying its stormy events reflect the movements de l’histoire de [Her√ak and Mesi´c, 1990] and obviously longue durée, but it is rather much more continuing to do so, even at the start of the structured and complex. Focusing for the new millennium. For centuries, invasions, moment on the most recent period, together wars, military defeats and victories have with the forced migrations caused by the been a more or less direct cause of popula- ethnic conflicts in the former Yugoslavia tion movements, in a continuous and still and the ethnic migrations followed by the ongoing transformation of the distribution collapse of the regimes created by “real and the overlapping of , languages, socialism”, we find both forms of labour ethnic groups and cultures [Sardon, 2001]. migration and transit migration. Therefore, Since the arrival of the Slav populations in the Balkans are also characterised by many the 7th century, the Ottoman expansion, the of the typical elements of the current forms extension of the Hapsburg domain, the rise of mobility in Eastern and Central and growth of national states, the two World [Okólski, 1998; Bonifazi, 2003]. Wars and the ethnic wars of the past decade, With regard to the positioning of the individ- there have been numerous population move- ual countries in continental migration, in a ments caused more or less directly by polit- short period of time the situation in the ical and military events. Balkans has undergone extraordinary In some cases, the legacy of migrations that changes. As late as the second half of the took place centuries ago is still tragically 1980s, the Balkan situation was charac- relevant, and weighs on the destiny of the terised by the presence of two traditional Balkan peoples. The forced migrations from sending countries, such as Yugoslavia and Kosovo or Krajina are the most significant , together with a country which was examples, although certainly not the only changing into a receiving country, such as ones. Long-term historical factors still seem Greece, and other three countries that were to enhance the specific and particular substantially detached from the European 520 labour-migration flows, such as Albania, migrations in the Balkans as from the end of Romania and Bulgaria. Currently, however, World War II. This survey will regard the these latter three countries should be consid- Balkan countries that have experienced ered as being among the most important “real socialism”, and where, for obvious sources of European . Turkey has reasons, the most radical and interesting substantially maintained its role, although its changes and innovations have occurred. range of destinations is much broader. The purpose is above all to highlight the Greece has definitely become a receiving internal differences in the Balkans and country, while most of the former Yugoslavia those between the Balkan countries and the is still far from having reached a completely rest of the , also taking into due normal condition in the migration field. account the recent context characteristics This paper will seek to provide a general briefly examined in the last section of this overview of developments in international paper.

1. BALKAN MIGRATION IN THE DECADES OF THE COLD WAR

By and large, the statistical measurement of the ceded to Yugoslavia [Fassmann international migration is one of the most dif- and Münz, 1995]. These are, of course, ficult tasks in the domain of demographic approximate estimates, not at all precise and data collection. Limitations and difficulties of rigorous, and above all agreement does not measuring spatial movements of population always exist on these figures. For example, in are well known. Besides, concepts, defini- the case of the , other sources consid- tions and data collection systems differ across er 250,000 to be a more realistic estimate of countries and times, making spatial and tem- the size of the migration flow [Donato, 2001]. poral comparisons a really fuzzy task. Wars, The data starting from 1954 on the flow of conflicts, economic and social turmoil con- the Turks from Yugoslavia to Turkey are con- tribute to largely increase the difficulties in sidered to be more accurate. The creation of a migration statistics collection, reducing their socialist State was not welcomed neither by quality and affordability. Last but not least, in the population of Turkish origin nor by the many cases the lack of flow data compels to Moslems in general, so that after relations refer to stock data. Notwithstanding these were restored between the two countries, a limitations, available data offer interesting population flow started, involving 151,000 information on Balkan migration when prop- people between 1954 and 1960, with 30,000 er caveats are considered. in the subsequent decade and just over 4,000

The international migrations involving the between 1970 and 1990 [Kiris5 çi, 1995]. countries with planned economies in the These figures, besides the Turks, also include Balkan peninsula from the period after many Albanians and Moslems from Bosnia World War II up to the 1990s can be attrib- and Sandjak who declared a different nation- uted to two main types of flows: ethnic and al origin in order to be able to emigrate to labour migrations. The former concerned Turkey. the German, Turkish, Hungarian and Slav The ethnic migrations from the Balkans to Moslem minorities settled in several Balkan did not end in the years immedi- countries, the Italians of Yugoslavia, the ately after the conclusion of the war. In the Jews as well as Gypsies of Romania (Table period surveyed, a large number of people of 1). Labour migrations, on the other hand, German origin emigrated from Romania. In have exclusively regarded Yugoslavia. particular, starting from the 1970s, Germany With the end of the war and the peace treaties, promoted the emigration of Romanian citi- 360,000 left Yugoslavia for zens belonging to the German minority as a Germany and . Some of the result of bilateral agreements signed with from Vojvodina and Romania the Romanian government. From then up to moved to Hungary and 200,000 Italians left 1989, approximately 230,000 people of 521

Table 1. Ethnic international migration in some Balkan countries in the period 1945-1992/93, absolute values

Source: Fassman and Münz (1995).

German origin emigrated from Romania workers living in between [Fassmann and Münz, 1995]. Between 1960 1964 and 1973, the year when the figure of and 1992, most of the Romanian Jews also 850,000 people should be recorded left the country, moving mainly to and [Malaçi´c, 1994]. The policies to stop immi- the . Furthermore, after 1987 gration, introduced in the major receiving approximately 60,000 Hungarians left countries, led to a definite reversal in trends, Romania legally, most of them settled in stopping only in 1985 when labour emigra- Hungary [Dövényi and Vukovich, 1994]. tion stock was reduced to 500,000 people. In With regard to information on other minori- the last five years of the 1980s, the values ties, in the period 1950-53 approximately grew once more, also due to the effect of the 250,000 Turks obtained permission to emi- profound economic, social and political cri- grate from Bulgaria, and later, on the basis sis under way in Yugoslavia, with a stock of of the 1968 agreements, over 95,000 Turks 550,000 emigrant workers being estimated were granted the right to emigrate to Turkey. in 1990 [Malaçi´c, 1994]. The statistical Out of the latter, only 14.1% decided to sources of the most important European remain there [Bobeva, 1994]. receiving countries generally refer to the With regard to Yugoslavia, starting from the foreign population, considering together 1960s, migrations were also due to strong workers and inactive population. According economic motives. Yugoslavia was the only to these data, in the early 1990s the overall country with a socialist regime, not only in number of Yugoslavian labour migrants and the Balkan Peninsula but in the whole of their family members exceeded 1.3 million East-, to tolerate and even people [Fassmann and Münz, 1995]. Alarge promote this type of emigration. Between part of the discrepancy between these two the 1960s and 1970s, the country became estimates of Yugoslavian emigration is the one of the major sources of labour force, result of the different groups of population thus contributing to the industrial develop- considered (workers vs. workers and family ment of North-Central Europe. Germany, members), but it also reflects the different Switzerland and Austria were the main host interest and ability of receiving and depar- countries. Yugoslav researchers estimate a ture countries in measuring the two sides of continuous growth in the stock of migrant the same migration flow. 522

2. SIZE ESTIMATIONS OF MIGRATION SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR

For the Balkans, the fall of the Berlin Wall suring international migration specific fac- and the conclusion of the cold war repre- tors have contributed to make even more sented the end of the longest period of sta- difficult the data collection in the Balkan bility and peace in their recent history area in the last fifteen years. Ethnic wars in [Prévélakis, 1994]. In the region, the transi- former Yugoslavia have been a powerful tion process had two main types of conse- factor in reducing, directly and indirectly, quences on the migration dynamics. Firstly, the availability and the quality of migration by triggering the ethnic conflicts it led to the statistics. Besides, as in all Eastern and conditions producing forced migrations Central Europe, the economic and social from the countries of the former Yugoslavia, problems of the transition period have deter- which represent undoubtedly the most dra- mined a not particularly favourable matic and characteristic element of all the to the organisation and implementation of a European migrations in the last decade. complex recording system for a phenome- Secondly, it created the political and eco- non that up to a few years ago hardly exist- nomic basis (as well as in the rest of East- ed. Finally, other problems arise from the Central Europe) for the continuation or start- new characteristics of migration processes, up of a series of migration flows that were with the increasing importance of informal, previously strictly controlled by the State. irregular or illegal flows. Thus, the available Therefore, since 1989 there has been a fur- statistics describe, though not always fully, ther revival of the ethnic migrations already the legal component of migration, providing considered in the previous paragraph and limited data on the flows going along differ- labour migration flows from countries that ent paths. were previously totally excluded from these In order to have a general idea of the extent dynamics developed as well. Finally, most of the migrations, reference has been made of the Balkan region has become highly to two different estimates of net migrations characterised as a migration transit zone, as in the countries considered in the 1990s a place of origin, as well as a land of passage (Table 2). The first estimate is based on for various forms of illegal migration migration statistics, in particular those con- [Bonifazi, Conti and Mamolo, 2003]. cerning the receiving countries, and the sec- The quantification of these processes is far ond estimate on the calculation of the migra- from being satisfactory. In fact, in addition tion balance as the difference between the to the already mentioned problems in mea- total growth of the population and the natur-

Table 2. Net migration levels in Balkan countries, 1990-2000 (a) (annual rates perthousand, annual absolute values in thousands)

Source: UN (2002a and 2002b). Notes: (a) In the first two columns, net migrations are based on the official migration statistics. The last five columns show the residual of the demographic balance equation (total population growth minus natural growth). 523 al balance. Both values are calculated by the 700,000 people in the 1990s. This figure, as United Nations and highlight considerable we shall discuss later, is in basic agreement differences, which are in any case also use- with the most recent evaluations of Albanian ful to illustrate the main trends. immigration formulated by the official The highest migration loss of the decade is Greek and Italian sources. the one recorded in Bosnia between 1990 Bulgaria and Romania are two other sending and 1995, with an annual rate of -43.2 per countries although at much lower levels. 1000 according to the migration statistics The data available show, in the two 5-year and -52 per 1000 according to the estimates periods examined, a constant loss for of the net migration as residual. According Bulgaria and a declining loss for Romania. to the latter source in absolute terms, the In the former case, the migration loss would total loss would have been one million peo- have been 40,000 people per year, and in the ple in a country with a population of just latter it would have fallen from 106,000 to 4.3 million at the start of the decade. Again 12,000 people. In both countries, emigration according to this measurement of the in the early 1990s was strongly ethnic in migration balance, half of this loss would character, though in subsequent years it have been recovered in the subsequent 5- tended more towards labour migrations. year period. In fact, from 1996 the process With regard to the other countries of the for- of return from asylum countries started, mer Yugoslavia, Slovenia and Croatia record leading after 1997 to the returns exceeding a positive migration balance, while the departures [UN, 2002a]. The sharp dif- Macedonia and Yugoslavia reveal an alter- ference in the period 1995-98 between the nation between positive and negative bal- values shown in the two different methods ances. Slovenia, which entered the of calculation induces us to consider the in May 2004, highlights the information available with great caution, best economic performance among the until more reliable measurements are countries surveyed, and the positive bal- obtained. ances recorded are most probably the signs Although Bosnia recorded the highest levels of a coming transition of its role in the of migration loss, the major sending country European migrations, with the transforma- of the region seems to be Albania. Also in tion into a receiving country. For Croatia, this case, the differences in the measurement this type of role still seems far away, and the of the net migration are considerable, and positive balances recorded are related to the should mainly be attributed to the high num- dynamics of forced migrations caused by the ber of undocumented migrants moving to conflicts. The same reasons have also con- and above all to Greece. According to siderably influenced the migration dynamics the statistics of the receiving countries, the in Serbia and Montenegro, with a highly average annual rates are -2.5 per 1000 and - potential underestimation of the arrivals of 8.4 per 1000, while in the estimates using displaced people, also leading to contrasting the residual method the figures are -24.7 per evaluations of net migration rates. Migration 1000 and –21 per 1000. The latter values has been modest in Macedonia and is also would signify a total migration loss of largely due to conflicts.

3. FORCED MIGRATIONS AND STOCK OF BALKAN EMIGRANTS IN WESTERN EUROPE

Moving on from an estimate of migration tions appears to be insufficient, inaccurate balances to a complete reconstruction of the or wholly lacking. If, however, we refer to various flows characterising the countries the number of displaced people hosted in a considered in the past 15 years seems to be country of the former Yugoslavia and to the a rather difficult task. In a number of cases, number of citizens of a Balkan country resi- in fact, the measurement of Balkan migra- dent in a country of Western Europe, these 524 two sets of stock data can be used to deter- former Yugoslavia. These flows were espe- mine some important characteristics of the cially heavy during the most violent phases main migration flows of the period. of the conflicts and stopped only when most The greatest flows of displaced people, with of the host countries significantly restricted regard to those remaining within the borders entries to asylum seekers. For example, the of the old socialist Yugoslavia, moved from number of internally displaced persons at Croatia and Bosnia to Yugoslavia and from the end of 2002 totalled 367,000 in Bosnia Bosnia to Croatia (Table 3). The stock data and 262,000 in Serbia and Montenegro, fig- available, despite all the limits, show three ures to which we should add some 85,000 migration streams, which, at their maximum people under the protection of the UNHCR peak, have led to a displaced population in Kosovo. Between 1992 and 2002, the with a similar size. The values reached total number of asylum applications lodged 287,000 people in 1993 for Bosnian dis- in industrialised countries exceeded one placed persons to Croatia, 349,000 in 1992 million, of whom 850,000 from people orig- for the Bosnians hosted in Yugoslavia and inating in what is today the Federation of 299,000 in 1999 for the forced migration Serbia and Montenegro and 194,000 from from Croatia to Yugoslavia. On the whole, people coming from Bosnia-Herzegovina the data follow the trends of the conflicts [UNHCR, 2003]. and reflect the persistence of certain situa- In the early 1990s, the number of immigrants tions being still far from a satisfactory solu- coming from the Balkans residing in a coun- tion, especially with regard to the Croatian try of Western Europe was especially high in and Bosnian Serbs displaced in Serbia and Germany, Austria and Switzerland and Montenegro. Despite their dramatic nature, almost exclusively involved the Yugoslavs the data shown in Table 3 only partially (Table 4). In 1991, they reached a total of reflect the intensity of forced migrations in 663,000 people in Germany, 198,000 in the former Yugoslavia. To these figures we Austria and 141,000 in Switzerland. In rela- should add the internally displaced persons tive terms, and also considering the other and flows directed beyond the borders of the Balkan countries, migration from this area

Table 3. Refugees in former Yugoslavia countries by country of origin and asylum, 1992-2002. Absolute values in thousands

.. not reported by the source Source: UNHCR (2002, 2003) 525

Table 4. Stock of foreign population from the Balkan countries in some European countries, 1st January. Absolute values in thousands

.. not available; - less than 500. Source: Eurostat (2003) Notes: (a) Data refer to former Yugoslavia. (b) Data from OECD (2003). (c) Our estimate. (d) Data from OECD (1995). (e) Census data from National Statistical Office. (f) ISTAT data. represented 12.8% of the entire foreign pop- the countries of the former Yugoslavia; only ulation in Switzerland, 13.8 in Germany and in Germany, a considerable Romanian com- 42.7 in Austria. In subsequent years, these munity has settled down totalling approxi- countries have continued to be three of the mately 90,000 people in 2001. main destinations of Balkan emigration. In Germany, the foreigners from the Balkans In the 1990s and in the early part of this exceeded 1.5 million people in 1996, i.e. decade, Greece and Italy have emerged as 21% of the total, falling to 1.2 million in two other major countries of destination of 2001 due to the effect of the return of many the Balkan emigration, especially from displaced persons; in Switzerland, they Albania. According to the data of the last totalled 350,000 in 2001 and accounted for a Greek census, all the Albanians resident in quarter of the entire foreign population. In Greece totalled 438,000 in 2001, to which Austria, they totalled 342,000 in 2001 and we should add 35,000 Bulgarians and 22,000 accounted for 45% of the total. Most of these Romanians, while there were practically no figures still refer to immigrants coming from immigrants from the countries of the former 526 Yugoslavia. Overall, the Balkan component The data considered reflect only the regular represented 65.6% of the total immigration component of migration from the Balkan and the Albanians alone formed 4% of the area to Western Europe, whilst the size of total population of Greece. In Italy, during irregular or illegal migration can be relevant early 2001, the resident Balkan immigrants for some flows. The same magnitude of reg- totalled 352,000, i.e. 24% of the foreign pop- ularisation processes shows the gap existing ulation. Also in this case, the Albanians were between the official and the actual size of the largest community, tending towards a international migration. In this respect, data gradual stabilisation [Bonifazi and Sabatino, for Romanians in the last Italian amnesty 2003]. The Romanian component was grow- are really significant. They give evidence ing: this trend is also confirmed by data of for the presence of an important flow of the last regularisation, since out of the labour migration in the last years, while 700,000 applications Romanian citizens sub- according to UN estimations in table 2 net mitted 143,000. The number of applications emigration of Romania largely decreased in submitted by the other Balkan nationalities the second half of the nineties. It is possible was 54,000 for the Albanians, 9,100 for the that trends in Romanian migration have Bulgarians, 6,700 for the Yugoslavs, 5,800 abruptly reversed at the turn of the century for the Macedonians, 4,200 for the with the emerging of new destinations, as it Croatians, 2,700 for the Bosnians and 500 is possible that UN fails to capture all for the Slovenians. migration flows. Waiting for new and Also in some countries of Northern Europe, updated data, the impression is of a the percentage of immigrants from the renewed importance of labour migration Balkans exceeded 10% of total immigration from Balkans along different and in many in the 1990s. In absolute terms, these values cases informal paths. These developments exceeded 23,000 people in and are a sign of the more general evolution of 36,000 in in 2001, while the fig- international migration in Central and ures for in 1996 exceeded 100,000. , with the beginning of new In the latter country, the fall between 1996 forms of mobility characterised by short- and 2001 is due to an increase in the number term movements [Okolski, 1998]. This situ- of naturalisations, totalling 35,800 for citi- ation can create a sound and large base for zens of the former Yugoslavia in the 2-year more traditional migration movements if period 1998-99 [Bonifazi, Conti and new channels of entry and stronger pull fac- Mamolo, 2003]. tors should appear.

4. CONTEXT FACTORS AND MIGRATIONS IN THE BALKANS IN THE 1990S

In the 1990s, various socio-economic and guiding migration flows in the region. This demographic factors regarding Balkan section will focus on some of these context migration have emerged, adding new signif- factors in order to seek to provide some ele- icance to population movements in the area. ments to think of when exploring the present These elements have not always been con- and the future prospects of the migratory sidered sufficiently important, with attention process in the region. being focused on the impact of the forced At the start of the current decade, the migrations caused by the conflicts. It seems amount of the population of the 8 Balkan that the development of migration flows has countries considered was approximately also followed the guiding lines of consoli- 15% of the population of the 15 EU Member dated historical and cultural links and the States (Table 5). Romania showed the more recent flows between the Balkan largest population with approximately 22.5 sending countries and the European receiv- million, while Macedonia and Slovenia had ing countries. All of these factors as a whole the smallest populations, with approximate- have become increasingly important in ly 2 million citizens. In the 1990s, some 527 Balkan countries experienced a significant dynamics characterising these countries, fall in the population, generally blamed on rather than to natural population dynamics. migration losses, which in some cases also In this respect, Albanian age structure added to the natural negative balance. The appears the most affected by emigration, economic and social crisis of the 1990s and when we consider the very high potential of the military conflicts also determined strong demographic growth of the country. As an repercussions on the volume of the working- example, 600,000 Albanian immigrants age population. In the 1990s, the average were officially recorded in Greece and Italy annual growth rate was negative in Albania, at the beginning of the present decade. This Bosnia, Bulgaria and Croatia. Whereas, the value represents something more than one population aged between 15 and 64 sixth of the whole population of the country; increased in all the other countries. This it mainly regards the working age popula- trend is basically due to the migration tion and can heavily affect the age structure.

Table 5. Some basic demographic and economic indicators for the Balkan countries, 2000

Source: (1) (2002); (2) our elaboration on data from UN (2003); (3) World Bank (2003); (4) ILO (2002). Albania: UNDP (2000), Bosnia Herz.: UNDP (2003); EU 15: Eurostat (2002) Notes: (a) 1999; (b) 2001; (c) Work applicants.

At the end of a decade of crisis, there still were about 6% at the end of the 1990s. In exist some characteristics of the population Bosnia and in Macedonia, the percentage of dynamics and structure that could have an young people was about 20% in 2000, and effect on the migratory process in the near the older population represented approxi- future. First of all, the natural population mately 10%. It should in any case be point- gain is especially significant in Albania, ed out that the ageing process has now also which in 2000 had a natural growth rate of started in these countries, as observed for 12.2 per 1000. At the end of the 1990s, some time in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania births also exceeded the number of deaths in and Slovenia. This involves a fall in the per- Bosnia and Macedonia, with a natural centage of the population aged under 15 growth rate of 3.1 and 6 per 1000 respec- years and an increase of the older popula- tively, while in the other countries this rate is tion. A similar situation can be observed in negative or almost zero. The natural dynam- Yugoslavia, though with sharp differences ics are also reflected in the differences on the regional level. Furthermore, again observed in the age structure of the popula- according to the UN estimates for the 1990s, tion. The Albanian population shows a high in most of the countries surveyed the rela- percentage of young people aged under 15, tive weight of the working age population who represent almost one third of the total increased, involving a significant fall in the population, while people aged 65 and above total dependency ratio. However, the posi- 528 tive growth rate for the period 2000-2010 of sis occurred in 1997, with unemployment the working age population in Albania, rates again rising to 18.2%, therefore Bosnia, Macedonia and Yugoslavia could inducing a serious problem for the coun- affect the migration potential, which try’s economic and social system. It should although low in absolute terms, could still furthermore be stressed that an improve- affect the neighbouring countries or the tra- ment in the situation of the Albanian labour ditional European host countries. market has also been compromised by the The purely demographic characteristics of extent of the underground economy and the the population in the countries of the discrepancies between real and officially Balkan Peninsula can in any case only part- recorded unemployment [UNDP, 2000]. In ly justify the dynamics in population move- Bosnia-Herzegovina, the unemployment ments of the Balkans. The effect of popula- rate in 2001 was estimated at 16.4%. In this tion pressure is more obvious when com- situation, the problems encountered when bined with other economic and social fac- we seek to quantify the level of unemploy- tors, which could have triggered migration ment are similar to those observed in flows, without counting the forced migra- Albania, and in particular regard the fact tions with an evident ethnic nature due to that much employment is covered by the military conflicts. informal sector. Nevertheless, a large por- One of the potential factors “triggering” tion of actual unemployment is also “statis- migrations could lie in the increase of tically hidden” within registered employ- unemployment, officially inexistent during ment. Besides the unemployment data, the the socialist period. Statistics on unemploy- instability of the labour market and the eco- ment trends in 1990s are incomplete and in nomic insecurity experienced by most of any case not very reliable. For indications the population are also rather worrying on the unemployment levels, reference will [UNDP, 2003]. be made here to the ILO statistics based on The economic recession in the 1990s also labour force sample surveys, and in case of emerges in the Gross Domestic Product missing data, to figures provided in the (GDP) levels. According to the figures respective national Human Development available from the World Bank (2003), at Reports published by the UNDP. In most of the end of the last decade most of the coun- the countries considered the total unem- tries surveyed recorded a lower GDP than in ployment rate is considerably higher than 1990. Other indicators, such as the GDP the EU 15 average. Furthermore, it has to be per-capita, also confirm a generally critical noted that the figures reported might hide situation. For most of these countries, the an even more critical unemployment situa- degree of economic development - if deter- tion in many of these countries. The case, mined on the GDP basis - is currently far for example, of people with highly insecure under the European Union average. and unstable jobs is disregarded. In 2000, Apart from the purely economic signifi- the majority of the countries considered cance of trade between the Balkan countries show a total unemployment rate above 16% and the other European countries, the com- with significant peak for Macedonia, which mercial link is also important in the context recorded an unemployment rate of 30.5% of population movements considered as an (Table 5). According to the ILO statistics integral part of the overall factors contribut- relying on labour force surveys estimates, ing to the definition of a migration system. Slovenia and Romania are the exceptions. In fact, international migration is increas- Nevertheless, the figures should be taken ingly the result of the very complex set of with caution as required for the other relations linking the different part of the Balkan countries. Referring to registered world under many respects. The globalisa- unemployment, Romania records a total tion processes have contributed to increase unemployment rate of 10.5% in 2000. the importance of the flows of goods, capi- Albania registered a fall in unemployment tals and information in establishing, pro- rate after the first years of the economic moting and maintaining migration move- transition. Nevertheless, the favourable sit- ments. In this context, trade flows allow to uation was reversed after the financial cri- highlight the size and direction of the eco- 529 nomic links between Balkan countries and represent over 50% of the imports in the the other countries, describing an important other countries, except for Bosnia- structural factor of international migration. Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Macedonia. Trade with the countries of the European Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia, Union is an important segment of the for- together with Yugoslavia, are the countries eign trade of the Balkan region (Table 6). showing a higher percentage of imports According to the data for 2000, imports from the other countries of the Balkan from the EU represent the highest percent- region, while for Bulgaria imports from age of imports to Albania and Slovenia, and total 25%.

Table 6. Imports and exports in the Balkan region. 2000

.. not available Source: IMF (2001). Notes: (a) Included only the eight specified countries; when data not available for a specific flow, this value is considered zero.

The structure of imports according to the Slovenia. Exports follow similar trends. In country of origin suggests the existence of 2000, exports to the EU countries exceeded other types of links between the countries, 60% in most of the countries surveyed, with not necessarily or not only related to eco- a peak of 89% for Albania. Italy is the main nomic factors, but also to geographical, his- exporting destination for Albania and torical and cultural aspects. Atotal of 61% makes purchases between 20% and 30% of of imports to Albania come from Greece the exports from Bosnia, Croatia, Romania and Italy. The Italian import rate is approx- and Yugoslavia. Exports to Germany total imately 19% in Romania and 16% in 27% for Slovenia and range between 10% Yugoslavia. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, and 20% for the other countries (except for Croatia and Yugoslavia about 20% of Albania and Bulgaria). In any case, we imports come from Austria and Germany, should also recall the trade flows within the and this percentage rises to 27% in Balkans, with Bosnia, Croatia and 530 Macedonia partly reflecting the continuity while Germany has strong ties with coun- of the economic links in the old Yugoslav tries of Former Yugoslavia, and Romania Federation. It is interesting to note that appears to prefer Germany and Italy. In gen- some of the relations in migration field are eral terms, economic links expressed by substantially confirmed considering inter- international trade might constitute an national trade. Albania’s trade is almost important component of contextual factors completely linked to Italy and Greece, of migration trends.

CONCLUSIONS

In the light of what has been observed in the bility. This situation seems to have had a larg- last decade and of the more recent situation, er influence on the development of transit the Balkan region will obviously maintain a routes for illegal migration than on the size of significant role in the migration dynamics of these flows [Bonifazi and Strozza, 2004]. To the coming years. There are various factors this regard, as previously mentioned in two of that could contribute to the further develop- the EU countries neighbouring the former ment of the mobility of the population in the Yugoslavia, i.e. Greece and Italy, the weight region. The most obvious factors regard the in recent immigration flows of the countries serious economic imbalance between the most involved in the conflicts has been defi- majority of the Balkan countries and the nitely modest. The Balkans are on two of the nearby countries of the European Union, main transit routes for illegal migrations, one which represent an important point of attrac- moving from the Ukraine towards the Czech tion. We should therefore recall that the Republic and Slovakia, and the other directly worst negative effects of the transition involving Romania, Bulgaria, the former process towards market economies in Yugoslavia and Albania [IOM, 2000]. The Central Eastern Europe have been recorded transition period in the region, even on the in the Balkan countries, with the sole excep- institutional level, has contributed to the pro- tion of Slovenia [UN, 2002a]. To these ele- liferation of new types of “illegal migra- ments, we should add both an unemploy- tions” in the region, such as trafficking and ment rate that will be hard to reduce in the smuggling, mainly towards the EU coun- short term and, in some of these countries, a tries. On the whole, in the present situation it persisting population pressure on the labour is hard to forecast the outcome, which close- market due to the still significant potential ly depends on the stabilisation processes of natural population growth. under way. The future migration dynamics in We should furthermore consider that the the most unstable area of the Balkans depend Balkan region, despite the efforts and com- on the outcomes of the more general political mitment of the international community, is and social development of the countries of still characterised by serious political insta- the region. 531

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