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OCTOBER 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 10 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC SEntinEL OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents A Profile of the TTP’s New FEATURE ARTICLE 1 A Profile of the TTP’s New Leader: Leader: Hakimullah Mehsud Hakimullah Mehsud By Mukhtar A. Khan By Mukhtar A. Khan REPORTS 4 The October 2009 Terrorist Attack in Italy and its Wider Implications By Federico Bordonaro 7 LIFG Revisions Unlikely to Reduce Jihadist Violence By Alison Pargeter 9 Rethinking Strategies to Secure U.S. Critical Infrastructure By Charles Faddis 12 Israel as an Al-Qa`ida Target: Sorting Rhetoric From Reality By Matthew Levitt 15 Understanding History’s Seven Stages of Jihad By Sebastian L.v. Gorka 17 Mao Tse-tung and the Search for 21st Century Counterinsurgency By Thomas A. Marks Hakimullah Mehsud speaks with reporters in Pakistan’s Orakzai Agency in November 2008. - Photo by A. Majeed/AFP/Getty Images n october 17, 2009, Pakistan’s after the arrival of U.S. Secretary of State 20 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity military launched a new Hillary Clinton in Islamabad. 24 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts offensive in South Waziristan Agency, the stronghold of Pakistan’s military offensive is OTehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The significant because it follows on the heels offensive comes in the wake of a series of the August 2009 Predator drone strike of major attacks launched by suspected that killed Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP’s TTP militants, including an October 5 leader. Baitullah’s death left the TTP in suicide attack on a United Nations office disarray, as he had not established a clear in Islamabad, and the audacious October succession plan. After three weeks marked 10 assault on the military’s General by significant infighting, Hakimullah About the CTC Sentinel Headquarters in Rawalpindi.1 In the Mehsud was finally confirmed as the new The Combating Terrorism Center is an days before the October 17 offensive, the leader of the TTP.2 With Hakimullah at independent educational and research TTP warned Pakistan’s government that the helm of the TTP, the group may reach institution based in the Department of Social any assault on South Waziristan would further into Pakistan’s Punjab Province Sciences at the United States Military Academy, result in increased attacks on civilian due to Hakimullah’s links to Punjabi- West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses and military targets in Pakistan. On based militant networks; this may allow the Center’s global network of scholars and October 28, the TTP seemed to deliver the group to further solidify ties with practitioners to understand and confront on its threat. The group was blamed for local insurgent outfits that have been contemporary threats posed by terrorism and a powerful car bomb that killed more other forms of political violence. than 100 people in Peshawar just hours 2 Shortly after his appointment, there was speculation that Hakimullah was killed as a result of infighting. It appears, The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, 1 Shaiq Hussain and Karin Brulliard, “In Pakistan, Mili- however, that it was his brother who died. For more, see the Department of the Army, or any other agency tants Attack Army Bastion,” Washington Post, October 11, Mushtaq Yusufzai, “Baitullah’s Death Finally Confirmed of the U.S. Government. 2009; “Taliban Claims Responsibility For UN Pakistan by Taliban,” The News, August 26, 2009; “New Taliban Blast,” Agence France-Presse, October 5, 2009. Chief Meets Reporters,” BBC, October 5, 2009. 1 OCTOBER 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 10 traditionally focused on neighboring Unlike his predecessors, Hakimullah through Pakistan; to prove his point, Kashmir and India. Moreover, never had the opportunity to fight he arrived at the interview driving an Hakimullah could move the TTP in a against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan armor-plated Humvee that he claimed more sectarian direction as a result of because of his young age. He worked was commandeered from an Afghanistan- his association with anti-Shi`a militant as a driver for Baitullah Mehsud when bound NATO convoy in Khyber Agency.9 leaders. These factors mean that the Baitullah emerged as a Pakistani During the interview, Hakimullah said TTP could become increasingly radical Taliban leader in 2004 and became his his men destroyed more than 600 trucks and dangerous under Hakimullah’s chief spokesman in October 2007 under and shipping containers in Peshawar and leadership. On the other hand, Khyber Agency destined for NATO in Hakimullah’s sectarian and potentially Afghanistan.10 more aggressive agenda could spark “Hakimullah’s anti-Shi`a infighting within the TTP and cause the agenda is an outgrowth of More recently, after rumors of his loosely structured network to split into death, Hakimullah again appeared factions. Given these new challenges and his long association with before journalists on October 4, 2009.11 broad lack of knowledge about the TTP, Qari Hussain Mehsud, During the meeting, Hakimullah ended it is critical to understand the character speculation of his death, and he also of the group’s decision-makers. This his cousin and a TTP warned that he would avenge the killing article profiles Hakimullah Mehsud, commander.” of Baitullah Mehsud. Hakimullah likely who has now assumed the mantle of used the press conference to improve one of the most dangerous groups morale among his followers; two other threatening Pakistan. key Taliban leaders, Qari Waliur his alias name of Zulfiqar Mehsud. Rahman and Qari Hussain Mehsud, Personal History He married two women, one in South were also at the meeting.12 Estimated to be 28-years-old and Waziristan from the Mehsud tribe and a approximately six feet in height, second wife, from the Mamunzai tribe, Military Capabilities Hakimullah has become a household name in Orakzai Agency.6 During his time as Recognizing Hakimullah’s value, in the region.3 He achieved prominence Baitullah’s driver and chief spokesman, Baitullah assigned Kurram, Orakzai and in November 2008 after he introduced Hakimullah reportedly served as a Khyber tribal agencies to his command himself to journalists in Orakzai Agency confidant to the former TTP leader. in early 2008. By the end of that year, of the Federally Administered Tribal Hakimullah managed to gain significant Areas (FATA) and displayed his access Extensive Media Contacts control in these agencies, which some to heavy weaponry. He grew up in South Hakimullah embraced his role as analysts argue is evidence of his Waziristan’s Kotki, and his original Baitullah’s chief spokesman, and he leadership and military capabilities.13 name is Jamshed.4 He is also known by quickly established strong relationships In these agencies, Hakimullah gained his alias name, “Zulfiqar Mehsud.” with journalists. Unlike Baitullah, who influence by controlling strategic refused to be photographed due to smuggling and supply routes. Moreover, Hakimullah belongs to the Eshangai religious concerns about the capture of he assassinated potential opponents.14 clan of the Mehsud tribe, which is a less human imagery, Hakimullah has been influential clan than Baitullah’s Shobi willing to pose for photographs, and he One tactic employed by Hakimullah Khel. Like other Pakistani Taliban recognizes the value of the media as a to gain power in these agencies was predecessors such as Baitullah Mehsud, propaganda tool. to exploit sectarian rivalries between Abdullah Mehsud and Nek Mohammad the Sunni and Shi`a sects. This was Wazir, Hakimullah never completed In November 2008, for example, particularly evident in Orakzai and his religious education. He attended Hakimullah invited more than a dozen Kurram agencies, where he targeted the a madrasa in Shahu village of Hangu journalists to his stronghold in Orakzai Shi`a community indiscriminately and District in the North-West Frontier Agency. During the meeting, he identified sent a wave of fear throughout the Shi`a Province (NWFP), but quit his studies Mullah Omar as his supreme leader, and population in Pakistan.15 Hakimullah’s early and joined the ranks of the Taliban said that Usama bin Ladin’s al-Qa`ida anti-Shi`a agenda is an outgrowth in Afghanistan in the late 1990s.5 network was his ally.7 He criticized of his long association with Qari Hakimullah received military training Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari for Hussain Mehsud, his cousin and a TTP during the last few years of the Taliban ceding sovereignty to the United States commander. Before joining the TTP, regime in Afghanistan. After the fall and vowed revenge for Zardari joining 8 of the Taliban in 2001, he reportedly the “infidels.” Hakimullah boasted 9 Rahimullah Yusufzai, “Hakimullah Mehsud Unveils returned to Pakistan’s Waziristan. about disrupting NATO supply routes Himself to Media,” The News, November 30, 2008. 10 Amir Mir, “The Top 10 Most Wanted Jihadis,” The 3 Information on his personal statistics was acquired 6 Riffatullah Orakzai, “Taliban’s New Leader: A Fiery News, September 1, 2009. through speaking with journalists who have interviewed and Emotional Commander,” BBC Urdu, August 22, 11 “New Taliban Chief Meets Reporters.” him. 2009. 12 Ibid. 4 Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Hakimullah a Fiercely Ambitious 7 Amir Mir, “A Young Turk Takes Over TTP, Ringing 13 Sherazi. Militant,” Dawn, August 27, 2009. Alarm Bells,” The News, August 28, 2009. 14 “Profile: Young Slayer Takes Up Reins of Pakistani 5 Alex Altman, “Hakimullah Mehsud: The New Head of 8 Imtiaz Gul, “Will Hakimullah Fit Baitullah’s Shoes?” Taliban,” Deutsche Press Agency, August 28, 2009. Pakistan’s Taliban,” Time Magazine, August 28, 2009. Pulse, September 3, 2009. 15 Ibid. 2 OCTOBER 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 10 Qari Hussain was an active member of resolution of their disputes in Shari`a the picture, the TTP must be concerned the banned anti-Shi`a group Sipah-i- courts.18 He then levied jizya (protection about future cooperation from Maulvi Sahaba and its militant wing, Lashkar-i- tax) on the Sikh and Hindu communities.