Economics and strategy Country report Nigeria Africa research 17 April 2008 Samir Gadio +44 (0)20 7367 7941
[email protected] Richard Segal +44 (0)20 7367 7908
[email protected] Matthew Pearson Nigeria +44 (0)20 7367 7734
[email protected] On the eve of a breakthrough Nigeria is Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populated country with approximately 154mn inhabitants, making it home to one in five Africans, and Sub-Sahara Africa’s second-largest economy after South Africa. Nascent democratic institutions have been consolidated by the holding of three general elections since 1999, which while at times controversial, have ultimately been endorsed by the international community, and survived legal challenges by opposition politicians. At the same time, the overturning of numerous election results provides evidence that electoral bodies are sufficiently independent and authoritative. President Yar’Adua’s election to the presidency in Apr 2007, which was validated by the judiciary earlier this year, is increasingly perceived as an important step forward in boosting governance and accountability standards in Nigeria. Furthermore, the anti-corruption crusade undertaken by the head of state is starting to bear positive results and signals that the era of impunity is over, notably for senior government officials. We expect GDP to expand by as much as 9.1% in 2008, following growth of 6.3% in 2007. This was higher than expected given that the Yar’Adua Administration took time to settle in after the April elections, and civil strife in the Niger Delta region caused oil-output disruptions. A political settlement of the Niger Delta crisis, the cost of which is estimated at about $60bn since the early 2000s, will be crucial to boosting development in the short and medium term.