The New Europe
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Number 14, Spring 2008 The New Europe Michael Chertoff on cooperation in the War on Terror Alex Alexiev on Europe’s demographic demons Sally McNamara on the future of U.S.-UK ties Astrid Coeurderoy on French foreign policy under Sarkozy Ulf Gartzke on Angela Merkel’s international line Janusz Bugajski on the changing politics of “New Europe” B. Grgic & A. Petersen on a new European energy security strategy Peter Brookes on the logic of European missile defense Victor Mizin on coping with Russia’s nuclear arsenal Jamie Shea on the Atlantic Alliance’s enduring importance E. Wayne Merry on moving beyond NATO Perspective J. D. Crouch II on missile defense, Russian politics & U.S. strategy toward Iran Dispatches Gaming the U.S.-India nuclear deal Malaise and decline under Gordon Brown Retaking the initiative in Iraq Book Reviews Michael Oren’s Power, Faith, and Fantasy $7.95 US $12.50 CAN The Shia Revival by Vali Nasr 8 1 Eisenman et al.’s China and the Developing World Blindside by Francis Fukuyama et al. 0 7 4 4 7 0 5 7 8 8 2 6 www.securityaffairs.org Ilan Berman Editor Tom Neumann Publisher Jim Colbert Associate Editor/Managing Editor Karla Jones Circulation Manager Jennifer Keech Graphic Design and Layout James P. Cetrone Web Development Editorial Board Jonathan Kislak, Chairman; Amb. John Bolton; Dr. Stephen Bryen; Armeane Choksi; Adm. Leon “Bud” Edney USN (ret.); Hon. Jack Kemp; Dr. Joshua Muravchik; Maj. Gen. Sidney Shachnow USA (ret.) The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), Inc., is an independent, non- profit, non-partisan, non-sectarian educational organization established in 1976 to fulfill a two-fold mandate: To educate the American public about the threats and dangers facing our country and our global allies; to explain why a mobile, technologically superior military is vital to America’s security; to provide leadership on issues affecting American national security and foreign policy; to explain to Americans and others the importance of U.S. security cooperation with like-minded democratic partners around the world and to explain the key role Israel plays in the Mediterranean and Middle East as an outpost of liberty, a linchpin of stability and a friend and ally of the United States. The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, Inc., incorporated in the District of Colum- bia, is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. 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EDITOR’S NOTE: The opinions expressed in The Journal of International Security Affairs (ISSN 1532-4060) are those of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of JINSA. Number 14, Spring 2008 From the Publisher Tom Neumann 3 Editor’s Corner Ilan Berman 5 The New Europe The Battle for Our Common Future Michael Chertoff 7 The stakes behind the West’s current struggle Stumbling Toward Eurabia Alex Alexiev 11 Barbarians inside the European gates Is the Special Relationship Still Special? Sally McNamara 21 Europe, the new challenge to U.S.-UK ties Turning the Page Astrid Coeurderoy 29 Nicholas Sarkozy closes the book on the anti-American era in France Berlin’s Best Hope Ulf Gartzke 35 Angela Merkel holds the key to a more constructive German foreign policy Europe’s Rising East Janusz Bugajski 43 Eastern Europe and the Balkans between East and West Escaping Gazprom’s Embrace Borut Grgic & Alexandros Petersen 49 For Europe, real energy security means rolling back Russian influence—and focusing on the Caspian The Case for European Missile Defense Peter Brookes 55 Why missile defense cooperation with Europe matters Russia’s “Nuclear Renaissance” Victor Mizin 63 Back to nuclear basics between Moscow and Washington Debating NATO Facing the Future Jamie Shea 71 The Atlantic Alliance needs to adapt to new security threats An Obsolete Alliance E. Wayne Merry 79 NATO has long outlived its usefulness to America Perspective “Tough Choices Ahead”: An Interview with J. D. Crouch II 89 The former Deputy National Security Advisor explains the centrality of the “third site,” Russia’s resurgence, and U.S. policy toward Iran Dispatches NEW DELHI: The Politics of Nuclear Cooperation C. Uday Bhaskar 93 LONDON: Downing Street Blues Michael Gove 95 BAGHDAD: Winds of Change Joel D. Rayburn 98 Book Reviews Looking Back to Look Forward Asaf Romirowsky 101 From Michael Oren, a masterful exposé of America’s experience with the Middle East Turf War Ilan Berman 104 Vali Nasr’s partisan look inside the Shia-Sunni schism Tracking the Dragon Randall G. Schriver 106 Eisenman et al. bring us closer to understanding China’s changing foreign policy Expecting the Unexpected Adam Lovinger 109 A framework for addressing unforeseen catastrophes, courtesy of Fukuyama and company From the Publisher The media leads the way. The people follow, and the politicians echo. That is the order of things today. There used to be a time when the media prided itself on how objective and honest it was. It did not always succeed, but it at least seemed to try. Back then the slogan of the much-vaunted New York Times was “All the News That’s Fit to Print.” Today, that motto has become “All the News That We Choose to Print.” The Times is willing to select, place and formulate news language in a way unimaginable just 20 years ago. The goal is to persuade rather than to report. Even the news industry’s conservative standard bearer, Fox News, is no longer what it used to be. It is not fair and balanced, just relatively so. It is an alterna- tive to CNN and MSNBC, just like the New York Sun emerged as a necessary alternative to the New York Times and the Washington Times was a response to the Washington Post. But the tragedy is that these are our main—and frequently our only—sources of information. The power of the media is so great that it can bring down or protect administrations. It can elect Presidents, Senators and Congressmen. Spare me your editorial endorsement; that is chump change compared to the support of those who put together the front page. The media can determine foreign policy, and it can help to win or lose wars. It can bring about a recession, or it can bolster confidence in the economy. In short, we live in a dictatorship of the media. It controls what we know, what we think, and what we buy. It is not Big Brother we have to fear so much as it is Citizen Kane. And if we are to be really free, we must lift the veil that blinds us. With this in mind, please enjoy this copy of The Journal. We hope that, in some small way, it helps to lift that veil. Tom Neumann Publisher THE JOURNAL OF INTERNAtiONAL SECURitY AFFAIRS Editor’s Corner Europe, it has long been said, is America’s most important and enduring inter- national partner. There is much to lend credence to this argument. After all, the political, cultural and military bonds between the United States and its allies across the Atlantic have persisted for centuries, reinforced by economic coop- eration and strengthened by periods of shared conflict. Today, however, those bonds are changing dramatically. Political divisions and demographic pressures on the Old Continent, transatlantic discord over the Iraq war, and diverging views of new international security threats have all impacted the relationship between Europe and America, and not for the better. All of which has led some, like conservative columnist Mark Steyn, to conclude that—when it comes to the War on Terror and other 21st century challenges— America is well and truly alone. It is more than fitting, therefore, that we turn our attention to the political and strategic changes taking place in Europe, and their implications for the United States. Our coverage kicks off with a feature article by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, who outlines the scope of the common struggle against radical Islam. From there, the Center for Security Policy’s Alex Alexiev provides a comprehensive—and chilling—analysis of the demographic decline taking place on the Old Continent, and the concomitant rise of a radical, unas- similated Muslim political class there. In her contribution, Sally McNamara of the Heritage Foundation explores the new threat to the historic Special Relationship between the United States and England: an increasingly assertive Europe. Astrid Coeurderoy of the European Foundation for Democracy, meanwhile, charts the rise of a new, more activist foreign policy in France. Georgetown University’s Ulf Gartzke does the same for Germany, outlining how German Chancellor Angela Merkel has reversed her predecessor’s populist, anti-American line. For his part, Janusz Bugajski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explores the changing policies—and international postures—of the countries of “New Europe.” Two European experts, Borut Grgic and Alexandros Petersen of Slovenia’s Institute for Strategic Studies, contribute their recommendations for a new strategy for the continent’s energy security.