FL IGINTERNHTAT IONAL WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2015 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2015 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2015 pared to wait for equipment that they need as soon as possible, Toulouse and Seattle have been in the envious position over the past few years of enjoying robust demand for their existing aircraft MAKING IT types, even though their successors are waiting in the wings. This has not been the case in wide- bodies, where production of, for example, the A330 is tailing off as Airbus prepares to intro- COUNT duce the A330neo. Our annual snapshot of the global airliner fleet shows CLOSE TALLIES The A320 family still tops the list of most popu- deliveries of current single-aisle types are holding up, lar mainline aircraft, although it is just pipped if while the 787 has debuted in the top 10 mainline aircraft older-generation Boeing 737s are added to the tally. In total there are some 6,100 Boeing nar- rowbodies in service (not counting the 717 and earlier McDonnell Douglas variants, of which MURDO MORRISON LONDON According to Flightglobal’s latest annual air- there are 666), compared with 6,052 of the A320, DATA ANALYSIS ANTOINE FAFARD liner census – a breakdown of the world’s fleet which does not, of course, have an earlier vin- of commercial aircraft by type and operator – tage equivalent. A year ago, it looked like the irlines, it seems, cannot get enough of numbers of current-generation A320s and 737s A320 would soon overtake the 737 if old and Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies. With in service rose by 7.9% and 9.1%, respectively. current versions were combined, but higher de- the latest re-engined versions of the This was a faster growth in the fleet size than in liveries of the Boeing narrowbody have ensured A320 family and the 737 due to enter the period between 2013 and 2014. There are the gap remains. Aservice in the next two years, and both manufac- now just over 6,000 A320 family jets in service Further down the list, the Boeing 787 has fi- turers sitting on hundreds of orders, deliveries of and more than 5,100 of the current iteration of nally entered the top 10, displacing the long their existing single-aisle types have continued Boeing’s rival. out-of-production Airbus A340. There are now to mount over the past 12 months. Because fast-expanding carriers are not pre- 286 Dreamliners in service, a more than three- 24 | Flight International | 11-17 August 2015 flightglobal.com 2 | Flightglobal Insight Flightglobal Insight | 3 FIN_110815_024-027.indd 24 06/08/2015 10:14 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2015 NARROWBODIES: ORDER BACKLOG WIDEBODIES: ORDER BACKLOG Despite output slackening, MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARE Comac the A330 had a good year in Boeing 737NG Boeing 777X Airbus Airbus C919 A330ceo 14% 11% Boeing 777 Boeing 737 Max A320ceo 3% 9% 6% terms of deliveries with a 28% 13% Boeing 787 29% 7.9% increase E-Jet fleet having nudged over the 1,000 aircraft Airbus barrier last year, rising 10% to just over 1,100 air- Airbus A380 craft. This puts Embraer in a strong position as it A350 6% Airbus A320neo Bombardier CSeries 29% Boeing 747 Airbus prepares to introduce its re-engined range. The 1% Boeing 767 38% 2% Irkut MC-21 3% A330neo SOURCE: Ascend Fleets (July 2015) 2% SOURCE: Ascend Fleets (July 2015) 5% fleet of ATR 72s grew even faster, by 11.2%, to 696 aircraft. In fact, when numbers of the smaller and less popular ATR 42 are included (its fleet quarters rise on the previous year, and this fig- fleet. Despite output now slackening, the A330 stayed virtually firm at 250 aircraft), the Franco- ure will leap again next year as output ramps had a good year in terms of deliveries with a Italian airframer is left with a tally of 946 aircraft, up. However, it may be a few years before retire- 7.9% increase taking the fleet of the small Air- a remarkable success given the fact that many ments of other aircraft either out of production bus twin-aisle to 1,095. were writing off the brand a decade ago. or nearing the end of the line mean the all-com- With the slow-selling Airbus A380 still far Troubled Bombardier may not have a re- posite widebody vaults up the list. from troubling the top 10 and despite sluggish vamped regional jet on the launch pad, as it con- The order otherwise remains virtually the sales of the latest 747-8, the venerable Boeing tinues to devote its energies to bringing its same as in 2014, the only other change being jumbo jet remains queen of the skies when it CSeries narrowbody family to certification, but the 757 and 767 swapping places, due to num- comes to ultra-large aircraft with 571 in service, deliveries of its three in-pro- bers of the smaller aircraft falling faster (down a modest decline of 1.7% from last year. duction CRJ variants re- 8.7% to 738 aircraft) than the still-in-produc- In regional aircraft, Embraer and ATR have main robust, with a 7.6% tion 767 (down 2.9% to 765 examples). The 777 been the biggest winners in terms of deliv- increase in the fleet to 696 remains in third place, with a 6.6% rise in the eries, with the Brazilian manufacturer’s aircraft between 2014 and ❯❯ British Airways is one of five A318 operators Rex Features Rex flightglobal.com 11-17 August 2015 | Flight International | 25 Flightglobal Insight | 3 FIN_110815_024-027.indd 25 06/08/2015 10:14 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2015 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2015 ❯❯ 2015. The fleet of its other in-production re- AIRBUS/BOEING COMMERCIAL ORDER BACKLOG BY REGION gional aircraft – the Q400 turboprop – grew by the same percentage, resulting in a fleet of 454. Number of aircraft Numbers of older generation Dash 8s dimin- 2,000 Airbus Boeing ished, with the fleet of Dash 8-100/200/300s fall- 1,800 ing below their newer sibling. 1,600 1,400 THIRSTY BUSINESS Fleets of older and smaller CRJ variants – the 1,200 CRJ100 and CRJ200 – have also shrunk substan- 1,000 tially as airlines and passengers continue to fall 800 out of love with thirsty 50-seat jets. A similar 600 fate has befallen Embraer’s ERJ range. There are 7.3% fewer ERJ-135/140/145 aircraft flying 400 around the world. 200 Deliveries of the Twin Otter are on the up 0 again following the relaunch of the Canadian Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin Middle North Unknown two-engined turboprop by Vancouver Island- America East America area SOURCE: Ascend Fleets from Flightglobal (July 2015) based Viking. Last year, with Viking production only beginning to gear-up, retirements of older TOP 10 FLEETS – MAINLINE AIRCRAFT examples of the 50-year-old type saw overall numbers decline slightly. This year, the fleet is In-service fleet back up to 267 aircraft. The other out-of-pro- Manufacturer and aircraft family 2015 2014 Change duction programme on the list has not surpris- Airbus A320 family 6,052 5,609 7.9% ingly seen a drop in numbers, with Beechcraft Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 5,102 4,678 9.1% 1900s declining by 3.4% to 341. Boeing 777 1,265 1,187 6.6% Airbus A330 1,095 1,015 7.9% The venerable Boeing jumbo Boeing 737-200/300/400/500 1,033 1,058 -2.4% jet remains queen of the Boeing 767 765 788 -2.9% Boeing 757 738 808 -8.7% skies when it comes to Boeing 717/MD-80/MD-90/DC-9 666 738 -9.8% ultra-large aircraft Boeing 747 571 581 -1.7% Boeing 787 286 162 76.5% SOURCE: Ascend Fleets. Data for 19 July 2015 vs 19 July 2014 There have been some small but significant shifts in the distribution of the airliner fleet, most- TOP 10 FLEETS – REGIONAL AIRCRAFT ly accounted for by Asia’s emergence as a major aviation region. Asia-Pacific now accounts for In-service fleet Manufacturer and aircraft family 2015 2014 Change 27% of commercial airliners in service, up from Embraer 170/175/190/195 1,102 1,002 10.0% 25% in 2014. In contrast, North America, which Bombardier CRJ700/900/1000 696 647 7.6% still leads with 31% of the fleet, has seen a 1% decline. Europe’s share has dropped by the same ATR 72 644 579 11.2% percentage to 24%. Embraer ERJ-135/140/145 620 669 -7.3% Manufacturer orderbooks give us an indication Bombardier CRJ100/200 563 650 -13.4% of the likely future shape of the global fleet. The Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 454 422 7.6% A320neo is still well out in front, with a backlog Bombardier Dash 8-100/200/300 428 441 -2.9% of 3,864 aircraft, representing 38% of total nar- Beechcraft 1900 341 353 -3.4% rowbody orders. The 737 Max – which is behind De Havilland Canada Twin Otter 267 263 1.5% its Airbus rival in terms of entry into service – is ATR 42 250 252 -0.8% SOURCE: Ascend Fleets. Data for 19 July 2015 vs 19 July 2014 AIRLINER FLEET DISTRIBUTION next with 2,825 orders, or 28%. Boeing’s current- 28%. Both Boeing’s current 777 and its succes- Europe generation narrowbody trumps its European sor continue to sell well, with 306 777Xs on 24% Asia-Pacic Latin America competitor, with a backlog of 1,408 737s (14% of order (11%), and a further 253 of the current 27% 8% the backlog), compared with 1,267 for the large twin (9%).