World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan 213730-00 Final | June 2011 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan Contents Page 1 Executive Summary 4 2 Introduction 10 3 Urban Resilience Methodology 13 3.1 Overview 13 3.2 Approach 14 3.3 Hazard Assessment 14 3.4 City Vulnerability Assessment 15 3.5 Spatial Assessment 17 3.6 Stakeholder Engagement 17 3.7 Local Resilience Action Plan 18 4 Ningbo Hazard Assessment 19 4.1 Hazard Map 19 4.2 Temperature 21 4.3 Precipitation 27 4.4 Droughts 31 4.5 Heat Waves 32 4.6 Tropical Cyclones 33 4.7 Floods 35 4.8 Sea Level Rise 37 4.9 Ningbo Hazard Analysis Summary 42 5 Ningbo Vulnerability Assessment 45 5.1 People 45 5.2 Infrastructure 55 5.3 Economy 69 5.4 Environment 75 5.5 Government 80 6 Gap Analysis 87 6.1 Overview 87 6.2 Natural Disaster Inventory 87 6.3 Policy and Program Inventory 89 6.4 Summary 96 7 Recommendations 97 7.1 Overview 97 7.2 People 103 7.3 Infrastructure 106 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan 7.4 Economy 112 7.5 Environment 115 7.6 Government 118 7.7 Prioritized Recommendations 122 8 Conclusions 126 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan List of Tables Table 3.1: Ningbo City Vulnerability Assessment Table 4.1: Ningbo Temperature Rise in Short, Medium and Long Term Table 4.2: Tropical Cyclone Grades in China Table 4.3: Land Subsidence in Some Chinese Cities Table 4.4: Summary of Sea Level Rise Prediction in Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta Table 4.5: Loss on Relative Sea Level Rise in Yangtze River Delta Table 4.6: Losses of Tidal Flats and Wetlands Caused by Sea Level Rise by 2050 Table 5.1: Schools in Ningbo Table 5.2: Summary of Ningbo Healthcare Services Table 5.3: Major Identified Ningbo Power Plants Table 5.4: Top Three Energy-Consumed Heavy Industries in 2009 Table 5.5: Features of Key Industry in Ningbo Table 5.6: Current Water Quality in Ningbo Table 5.7: Ningbo Administrative Units Table 5.8: Main Targets in 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) Table 5.9: Key Large-Scale Strategic Projects in 12th Five Year Plan Table 6.1: Hazard Gaps Table 6.2: City Vulnerability Gaps Table 7.1: Matrix of Prioritized Recommendations 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan List of Figures Figure 2.1: Ningbo Location Figure 2.2: Ningbo Topology Map Figure 2.3: Ningbo among the top Port Cities with High Population Exposure to Climate Vulnerability Figure 3.1: Urban Resilience Methodology Framework Figure 3.2: Climate Scenario Worldviews Figure 3.3: Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.1: Geological Hazard Distribution and Prevention Measure Figure 4.2: Ningbo Monthly Temperature Figure 4.3: Annual Average Temperature Figure 4.4: Annual Temperature in Ningbo Figure 4.5: Annual Forecasted Temperature Rise of Ningbo Figure 4.6: Temperature Scenarios for Ningbo Spatially Figure 4.7: Annual Rainfall in Ningbo Figure 4.8: Monthly Rainfall in Ningbo Figure 4.9: Average Annual Rainfall Figure 4.10: Annual R10 Observation in Ningbo (1953-2005) Figure 4.11: Annual Forecasted Rainfall of Ningbo Figure 4.12: Annual Forecasted R10 of Ningbo11 Figure 4.13: Annual Forecasted R5D of Ningbo Figure 4.14: Total Number of Serious Droughts annually in Different Districts Figure 4.15: CDD of Ningbo under Different Scenarios Figure 4.16: Number of Days with Temperature over 35°C in Ningbo Figure 4.17: HWDI of Ningbo under Different Scenarios Figure 4.18: Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Ningbo (1956-2006) 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.19: Average Highest Wind Speed during Tropical Cyclones (1956- 2006) Figure 4.20: Geographical Distribution of Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones (1956-2006) Figure 4.21: Total Number of Recorded Floods in Different Stations Figure 4.22: Inundation Area of a 50-year Flood Event Figure 4.23: Annual Sea Level at Four Monitoring Stations Figure 4.24: Annual Sea Level Monitored by Satellite around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E) Figure 4.25: Estimated Inundation Area of a 2m Storm Surge Figure 4.26: Hazards in Ningbo Figure 5.1: Population Change, 2010-2030 Figure 5.2: Population Density and Agriculture Population Distribution by Region in Year 2008 Figure 5.3: Floating Population Percentage in Major Chinese Cities Figure 5.4: Social Services and Assets Map Figure 5.5: Higher Education Enrolment Rate in Cities Figure 5.6: Health Care in Different Cities Figure 5.7: Ningbo Land use Plan (2008-2020) Figure 5.8: Transportation Network Year 2003 to 2020 Figure 5.9: Replacement Value of All Roads Figure 5.10: Car Ownership per 100 Capita in Cities Figure 5.11: Power and Water Facilities Figure 5.12: 2009 Ningbo Water Uses Figure 5.13: Water Consumption in Different Cities Figure 5.14: Wastewater Treatment Rates in Different Cities Figure 5.15: Energy Consumption by Fuel Figure 5.16: Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities Figure 5.17: Energy Uses per Capita in Different Cities 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.18: Total Electricity Use of Ningbo Figure 5.19: GDP per Capita in Different Cities Figure 5.20: Air and Water Monitoring Stations Figure 5.21: Annual Change of the Number of Days with Haze Figure 5.22: 2009 Forest Coverage in Different Cities Figure 5.23: Green Space in Ningbo Urban Area (2008-2020) Figure 5.24: 2009 Public Green Space per Capita in Different Cities Figure 5.25: Ningbo Government Leadership Figure 5.26: WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group Figure 6.1: Summary of Policy and Program Inventory Figure 7.1: Annual Hours of Sunshine in Ningbo Figure 7.2: Spatial Distribution of Effective Wind Energy per Square Metre of Hoop 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 1 Executive Summary Ningbo serves as the Chinese pilot city for the World Bank Climate Resilient Cities (CRC) Program. The CRC program aims to „prepare local governments in the East Asia Region to better understand the concepts and consequences of climate change; how climate change consequences contribute to urban vulnerabilities; and what is being done by city governments in East Asia and around the world to actively engage in learning capacity building, and capital investment programs for building sustainable, resilient communities.‟1 The Urban Resilience Methodology was applied to holistically understand Ningbo‟s current and forecast hazards; sector vulnerabilities; and gaps. This baseline understanding allowed for targeted recommendations to build Ningbo‟s resilience, and form the Local Resilience Action Plan (LRAP). It also involved close stakeholder engagement to understand the city, obtain information, and build local capacity. The process of creating the LRAP and final LRAP intends to be owned and implemented by the City. Each City will have a different set of recommendations to address their urban vulnerabilities and climate change risks. These recommendations were carefully discussed and prioritized based on the Ningbo‟s goals, resources, and other factors. The iterative process and implementation of the recommendations would help support a Climate Resilient Ningbo. Climate Resilient Ningbo: to enhance Ningbo’s ability to prepare, respond, recover, and reorganize to direct and indirect climate change impacts and natural disasters 宁波气候变化适应旨在提升宁波对气候变化产生的直接影响与间接影响 以及自然灾害的筹备力、应对力、恢复力以及重组力 Ningbo is located in the middle of China‟s coast, in the South of the Yangtze River Delta The City has six districts (Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, Beilun and Yinzhou), three county-level cities (Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua), and two counties (Xiangshan and Ninghai), covering an area of 9817 km2 and containing approximately 5.7 million people. Ningbo, with its port and diverse industries serves as an economic powerhouse in the region and country. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 4 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan However, climate change is a growing risk to the City and its socio-economic development. Ningbo Facts OECD ranked Ningbo as one of the most vulnerable port cities in the world, with high socio-economic Location: South of Yangtze River asset and population exposure. Delta in Zhejiang Province Ningbo themselves have estimated that geological hazards would Coordinate: 120°52‟ - 121°08‟E, 29°03‟ - threaten about 4,600 people and 11.23 million Yuan (1.6 million 30°19‟N USD) of assets. Therefore, the LRAP was prepared to support Area: 9817 km2 Ningbo‟s path towards resilience. Registered Population: 5.7 million This LRAP had four parts. Part I investigated natural hazards- (2009) weather observations and climate models. Seven key climatic GDP per Capita: 10,833USD (2009) parameters were selected: Administrative Units: Temperature- Temperature rises at an average of 0.9°C o Urban District: Haishu, every decade since the 1950s. Ningbo Meteorology Bureau Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai and used a regional model to downscale forecast for years Yinzhou 2020, 2030 and 2050 under UN o County-Level City: Yuyao, Cixi IPCC high, medium and low scenarios.