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January 28, 2021 Hearing Transcript HEARING ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS AT THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY’S CENTENNIAL HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2021 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: https://www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN ROBIN CLEVELAND, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: BOB BOROCHOFF ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN JEFFREY L. FIEDLER HON. JAMES M. TALENT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN MICHAEL R. WESSEL The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at https://www.uscc.gov. i CONTENTS THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2021 HEARING ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS AT THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY’S CENTENNIAL Opening Statement of Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) ......................................................................................................................1 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................................3 Opening Statement of Commissioner Roy Kamphausen (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................................5 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................................7 Panel I: The State of U.S. China Relations Heading into 2021 Panel I Introduction by Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................................9 Statement of Robert Sutter Professor of Practice of International Affairs, George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs ..................................................................................................................10 Prepared Statement ....................................................................................................................12 Statement of Mary Lovely Professor of Economics, Syracuse University Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs ........................................................................................................................................24 Prepared Statement ....................................................................................................................27 Statement of Zach Cooper Research Fellow, American Enterprise Institute and Co-Director, Alliance for Securing Democracy ................................................................................................................................48 Prepared Statement ....................................................................................................................50 Panel I: Question and Answer .......................................................................................................60 Panel II: Trends in China's Politics, Economics, and Security Policy Panel II Introduction by Commissioner Roy Kamphausen (Hearing Co-Chair) ...................................................................................................................76 Statement of Sheena Chestnut Greitens Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs ........................................................................................................................................77 Prepared Statement ....................................................................................................................80 Statement of Yuen Yuen Ang Associate Professor, University of Michigan ............................................................................91 Prepared Statement ....................................................................................................................94 Statement of M. Taylor Fravel Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ..................................................................................................................................................111 ii Prepared Statement ..................................................................................................................114 Panel II: Question and Answer ...................................................................................................137 Panel III: Implications of China's Policies for U.S. Interests Panel III Introduction by Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .................................................................................................................156 Statement of Jacqueline Deal President and CEO, Long Term Strategy Group .....................................................................157 Prepared Statement ..................................................................................................................160 Statement of Daniel Rosen Founding Partner, Rhodium Group .........................................................................................174 Prepared Statement ..................................................................................................................177 Statement of Peter Jennings Executive Director, Australian Strategic Policy Institute .......................................................183 Prepared Statement ..................................................................................................................186 Panel III: Question and Answer ..................................................................................................195 QUESTIONS FOR THE RECORD Responses from Zack Cooper Research Fellow, American Enterprise Institute and Co-Director, Alliance for Securing Democracy ................................................................................................................................215 Responses from Jacqueline Deal President and CEO, Long Term Strategy Group ......................................................................216 PUBLIC COMMENT SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Public Comment from Jean Public .............................................................................................221 iii U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS AT THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY’S CENTENNIAL THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, DC The Commission met via videoconference at 10:30 a.m., Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew and Commissioner Roy Kamphausen (Hearing Co-Chairs) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW HEARING CO-CHAIR CHAIRMAN BARTHOLOMEW: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the first hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's 2021 annual report cycle. Thank you to our witnesses today for their testimony and for their forbearance as we hold this hearing virtually. I am really looking forward to the day that we can once again meet in person. I'd also like to thank the Commission staff, Leyton, Alex, and Sierra in particular, for all of the work that they've put into organizing today's hearing. This year is a pivotal one for U.S.-China relations. In China, it is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. The CCP has placed a great importance on this anniversary. Globally, it is promoting a narrative of China's inexorable rise and the inevitable decline of the West. The story the CCP is telling around the world is one that is often based on lies and half-truths. To deflect attention from its early failures in addressing the COVID-19 outbreak, for example, its diplomats have falsely accused the United States of being the source of the virus. The validity of its economic growth statistics is being questioned. It’s flatly denying the genocide the U.S. Department of State and many experts have accused it of carrying out against the Uyghurs as well as lying about forced labor, detention and torture, and the destruction of religious sites, all of which have been well documented. In the United States, we have a new President, a new administration, and a new Congress, all facing the most openly confrontational period
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