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July 2021 No 172, Volume 15

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July 2021 No 172, Volume 15 July 2021 - Volume 15 No 172 Summary Equity Markets The TEDPIX index increased by 9.4% and the junior Farabourse (IFB) index increased by 2% in IRR terms over the course of June 2021. Based on the unofficial exchange rate, the month- on-month gain in dollar terms was 5% on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX); however, the Farabourse market lost 2%. This was partly due to the 4% depreciation of the IRR versus the USD over the month. Debt Markets For the start of the Iranian calendar year 1400 (March 2021) to the end of June, the total issuance on the fixed income market amounted to 1.1 billion US$ based on the unofficial exchange rate. Yield to maturity (YTM) fell to 21% at the end of June. Economic Review This issue reviews the latest developments in foreign exchange rate market and Iranian Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in the Iranian economy. In addition, we have included a separate report covering the latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations and senior macroeconomic strategists in a fact- sheet summary, as well as an economic calendar released by local and international statistics centers. Photo by: Zeeenshop, Tehran, Iran www.zeeen.ir 1 Iran Investment Monthly Table of Contents 3 Market Overview 5 Performance & Updates 6 Historic Trends & Sector Insight 7 Industry at a Glance 8 Market Snapshot 9 TSE & Junior Market Performance 10 Top Ranked Companies 11 Iran’s Fixed Income Market 13 Economic Review 13 Latest Updates 15 Macroeconomic Data 16 News & Views 16 Recent Brokerage Reports 16 Turquoise News 17 Turquoise Group 2 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview July 2021 Volume 15 No 172 Market Overview Whilst the strengthening IRR since the start of the year contributed positively towards the index (YTD up by 9.9%), the major impact for the month was due to commodity producers. The petrochemical sector, which is the largest listed sector in terms of weighting on the TSE, rose by approximately 10% in June. This sector has not experienced a monthly rise of this magnitude since March 2021. Diversified holding companies, which mainly own blue-chip commodity producers in their portfolio, also had a great month with their index soaring by 15%. Monthly performance of TSE sectors in EURO Shervin Shahriari Chief Inves tment Officer Source: Tehran Stock Exchange We believe that the current boom in the global non-oil commodity markets may well lose steam in the coming months; this is a scenario that would impact the related sectors on the TSE. In the domestic credit market, the Central Bank of Iran’s (CBI) recent policy to lower interest rates using its open market operation helped to bring about an acceleration in the rise of government bond prices; yields consequently fell by more than 1 percentage point in June. As a result, the effective yields on short dated government debt securities fell to 20.9%, the lowest since March 21. 3 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview July 2021 Volume 15 No 172 Iranian T-Bills YTM in IRR Jun 2021 0.21 Source: Tehran Stock Exchange As a result of strong supervision by the CBI over deposit rates, and its role in providing banks with excess liquidity, we believe that the current falling interest rate environment will persist over the short run. This should provide the domestic equity markets with an additional uplift, given that the average P/E of the market currently stands at a current level of 11x. Any decline in interest rates would impede the government’s ability to borrow and therefore necessitate a restructuring of the government budget in view of the continuing sanctions on oil exports. Looking ahead, the big event for Iran next month will be the inauguration of the new president on 5th August. The election of a conservative president, Mr. Raisi, is expected to consolidate power in Iran and set the stage for making vital decisions on the foreign policy side. In regard to a potential revival of the nuclear accord, we expect this to be well received by the stock market and result in a near-term risk-on market rally, especially in the non-commodity sectors. 4 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview July 2021 Volume 15 No 172 Performance & Updates 11 - Year Average (2008-2021)1 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 131 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market P/E 8.0 x TSE Dividend Yield (%) 3 10% TSE Market Cap / GDP 64% TSE & Farabourse Total Turnover (billion US$),Average Annual 30 TSE TSE Overall Index Average Annual Growth (US$) 25% TSE 1 Annual data from 2008 to Jun 2021 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. Summary - Jun 2021 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 281 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Free Float 21% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Number of Listed Companies1 692 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market TSE Index Performance (US$)2,4 5.2% (MTD) -8.6% (YTD) TSE Total Turnover (million US$)2 4,123 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Dividend Yield (%) 3 5.8% TSE P/E 10.9 1 176 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on the latest market data 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 - Jun 2021 Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$) Since the beginning of 2021, the market has contracted as the TSE and IFB have recorded year-to-date losses of 11% and 8% in IRR terms respectively. The loss in hard currency terms was 9% on the TSE and 6% on the IFB on a year-to-date basis. In June 2021, the value of TSE equity trade volumes decreased to USD 3,477 million from the USD 7,697 million average over the last twelve months. The total number of shares traded on the TSE decreased by 16% compared to a twelve-month average of 180 billion shares. US$ Million Source: Tehran Stock Exchange Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate 1 Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities. 5 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview July 2021 Volume 15 No 172 Historic Trends & Sector Insight Long-Term Overall Index (Normalized in USD) Long-Term Iranian Market Cap ( Normalized in USD) Historic Average: 204 Historic Average: 188 Jun 2021 : 391 Jun 2021 :428 TSE Best Performing Sectors & Overall Index (Normalized in USD) 115 112 111 105 Diversified Industrial (Holdings) Metal Ores Mining Refined Petroleum Products Overall USD TSE Large Sectors (% Market Capitalization) 22% 14% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 20 Other Metals* Monetary Diversified Chemicals Refined Petroleum Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of Jun 2021 *Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum Motor Vehicles And Auto Parts Pharmaceuticals Computer & Related Activities Metal Ores Mining Telecommunications 6 Iran Investment Monthly Refined Petroleum Market Overview July 2021 Volume 15 No 172 Industry at a Glance - Jun 2021 YTD 1-Year Return 5-Year Return Top Performing Companies Market Cap Sector Trailing (%) Trailing (%) Trailing (%) in Jun 2021 (MOM %) (Million USD) in USD in USD in USD Iranian lead and zinc production and development company1 32 - - - Metals* Iranian Zinc Industrial Expansion Company1 26 - - - Kashan Amirkabir Steel Company 306 -53% -55% -39% Damavand Mining Company 149 -51% -77% 131% Mining Gol Gohar & Mining Industrial Co. 7,154 -9% -27% 33% Mining and Metals Development Investment Company 3,114 -25% -54% 12% Tabriz Oil Refining Company 1,291 6% -37% 33% Petroleum Tehran Oil Refining Company 2,745 -6% -66% - Sepahan Oil Company 650 -30% -55% -69% Nouri Petrochemical Company 3,214 25% -63% - Chemical Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Company 533 -11% -39% 76% Jam company 3,111 -7% -24% -34% Tejarat Bank 2,284 -16% -27% -64% Banks Saderat Bank 1,504 -23% -38% -68% EN Bank 550 -12% -36% -71% 1: New IPO TSE Large Sectors 5-Year Performance (Normalized in USD) Metals Mining Petroleum Chemical Banks 344, Jun 2021 306, Jun 2021 209, Jun 2021 166, Jun 2021 137, Jun 2021 Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of ending Jun 2021 *Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum 7 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview July 2021 Volume 15 No 172 Market Snapshot -Jun 2021 Iran & Regional Markets Iran: A 27-Year Snapshot, Asset Class Annualized Return in US$ (%) P/E Multiple Comparison MSCI Morocco 27.1 Kuwait 37.1 Qatar 18.1 11% MSCI Arabian Markets 22.2 MSCI GCC Countries 22.6 MSCI Egypt 7.8 6% 5% Saudi Arabia 36.2 UAE 22.3 Iran 10.9 % Turquoise Iran Fund 8.8 Sub Fund B/C, as of ending Jun 2021 Note: Annual data from 1995 to Jun 2021 Source: CBI, TSE, IFB All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate Iran & International Markets 3 4 Tehran Stock Exchange MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets Average P/E Average P/E Average P/E 10.9 18.7 18.2 1 1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $ -34.1% 41.4% 38.9% Annualized 10 Year in $ 2 Annualized 10 Year in $ Annualized 10 Year in $ 13.8% 4.7% 5.7% 20.0 Chemicals 20.4 Information Technology 36.1 Financials 13.7 Basic Metals 17.8 Financials 12.9 Communication Services 9.2 Investment Companies 17.6 Consumer Discretionary 11.6 Real Estate 7.6 Diversified Industrials 11.3 Communication Services 9.4 Materials 7.3 Metal Ores Mining 8.4 Materials 9.2 Consumer Staples Sector Breakdown (%) 42.2 Others Sector Breakdown (%) 24.6 Others Sector Breakdown (%) 20.9 Others 1.TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) performance calculated in US$ for the Period of Jun 2020 to Jun 2021 2.Overall Tehran Stock Exchange Index 10 year annualized performance calculated in US$ 3.MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US$) - Jun 2021 4.MSCI Frontier Markets Index (US$) - Jun 2021 Source: Tehran Stock Exchange - Central Bank of Iran - MSCI Inc., Kamcoonline.
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