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September 2020 No 163, Volume 14

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September 2020 No 163, Volume 14 September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Summary Equity Markets The TEDPIX index and junior Farabourse (IFB) declined 9% and 8% in IRR terms during this month ending August 2020, respectively. Based on the unofficial exchange rate, the month-on-month loss in dollar terms was 11% in TSE and 9% in Farabourse market. We anticipate the stock market has entered into a bearish territory and the correction will continue. Debt Markets For the start of the Iranian calendar year 1399 (March 2020) to end June, total issuance on the fixed income market reached 3.9 billion US$ based on the unofficial exchange rate. Yield to maturity (YTM) remained stable at 18.9% at the end of August. Economic Review This issue reviews the latest developments in foreign exchange rate market, Iranian Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) and trade balance in the Iranian economy. In addition, we have included a separate report covering the latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations and senior macroeconomic strategists in a fact-sheet summary, as well as an economic calendar released by local and international statistics centers. Masule, Iran Photo by: Amin Safaripourn 1 Iran Investment Monthly Table of Contents 3 Market Overview 3 Market Update 6 Performance & Updates 7 Historic Trends & Sector Insight 8 Industry at a Glance 9 Market Snapshot 10 TSE & Junior Market Performance 11 Top Ranked Companies 12 Iran’s Fixed Income Market 14 Economic Review 14 Latest Updates 16 Macroeconomic Data 17 News & Views 17 Recent Brokerage Reports 17 Turquoise News 2 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Market Review The Iranian Stock market sold off in August for the first time since October 2019 as the market sentiment shifted dramatically and retail investors started to liquidate their positions and realize profits. An unprecedented 198 % rally in the USD value of the market capitalization since the beginning of 2020 up to end of July has encouraged some investors to take their profits for the time being as the US election looms. The overall index fell by 12% in Euro terms in August, the most severe decline since August 2018 . The 2020 rally looks even more bizarre if one takes the performance of the TSE versus all global markets over different time periods. If we take the peak point of August 2020, here is the 5 year comparison of Shervin Shahriari the annualized return of the TSE in free market USD rate versus its Chief Investment Officer global peers: Global Stock market indices: 5- Year Annualized Return in USD terms Source: MSCI There are many ways to doubt the sustainability of this rally. One way would be to look at the relative measures i.e. comparing the value of assets versus the GDP number, total money supply, etc. 3 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Total Assets to GDP and Money Supply Source: CBI, TSE, howmuch.net As is clear in the chart, the recent jump in assets prices (2020 to mid-August 2020) does not correspond to the broader economic measures like the GDP and M2. Even historically, current ratios are multiple times bigger than the highest record we had in the past in Iran. So what has fueled this speculative boom in the asset markets? The answer lies with the monetary policy. The table below reports the monthly growth in the base money of IRR in 2020: Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Monetary 0.5% 1.3% 8.1% 1.4% 5.6% 2.3% -2% -2.2% Base growth (IRR) Numbers indicate that the CBI executed an easing monetary policy in response to the virus outbreak in early 2020. That proved to be harmful further down the line in an environment that the supply side of the economy is so restricted because of the shrinking GDP and imports. The CBI carried out the easing by lending to the government which had been suffering from a painful budget deficit. However, as the policy started to take its toll on the CPI and the markets, the CBI lately reversed the course by forcing the government to issue massive amount of bonds. In the past three months, the government has sold more than 3 billion USD worth of bonds mainly to the commercial banks which amounted to the whole deficit it had year to date. That 4 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 is why the monetary base has shrunk in July and August. In other words, not only did the CBI stop lending to the government but it also started to receive its prior receivables. With all mentioned, this seem that we are close to a pivotal moment in Iranian markets. Hence, this is appropriate to be patient and keep the highest level of flexibility in our investment strategy. We will naturally be prepared to take action in accordance with the US election results and the monetary policy developments 5 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Performance & Updates 11 - Year Average (2008-2020)1 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 128 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market P/E 9 TSE Dividend Yield (%) 3 10% TSE Market Cap / GDP 63% TSE & Farabourse Total Turnover (billion US$),Average Annual 23 TSE TSE Overall Index Average Annual Growth (US$) 34% TSE 1 Annual data from 2008 to Aug 2020 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. Summary - Aug 2020 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 365 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Free Float 22% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Number of Listed Companies1 644 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market TSE Index Performance (US$)2,4 -10.5% (MTD) 160.4% (YTD) TSE Total Turnover (million US$)2 15,618 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Dividend Yield (%) 3 2.2% TSE P/E 36.7 1 169 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on the latest market data 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 - Aug 2020 Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$) Since the beginning 2020, the market has expanded to the upside recording the YTD performance of the TSE and IFB to 366% and 267% in IRR terms respectively. The gain in hard currency terms was 160% on the TSE and 105% on the IFB on a year to date basis. In August 2020, the TSE equity trade value declined to 2,741 million US$ from the 3,321 million US$ last 3-month average. The total number of shares traded on the TSE declined by 26% compared to the three-month average of 30 billion shares. Million US$ Source: Tehran Stock Exchange Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate 1 Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities. 6 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Historic Trends & Sector Insight Long-Term Overall Index (Normalized in USD) Long-Term Iranian Market Cap ( Normalized in USD) Historic Average: 182 Historic Average: 170 Aug 2020 : 561 Aug 2020 : 623 TSE Best Performing Sectors & Overall Index (Normalized in USD) 99 95 Overall USD 90 Metal Ores Mining Post & Telecommunication 86 Monetary Intermediation - Banks TSE Large Sectors (% Market Capitalization) 19% 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 23% Auto Other Mining Metals* Monetary Petroleum Diversified Chemicals Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of Aug 2020 Post, Telecom *Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum 7 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Industry at a Glance - Aug 2020 YTD 1-Year Return 5-Year Return Top Performing Companies Market Cap Sector Trailing (%) Trailing (%) Trailing (%) in May 2020 (MOM %) (Million USD) in USD in USD in USD Yazd Alloy Steel Industries Co. 31 100% 242% 288% Metals* Sadid Pipe and Equipment Company 45 153% 106% 626% Jahan foolad Kavian 553 413% 345% - Damavand Mining Company 123 -18% -1% 73% Mining Iran Manganese Mining Company 79 38% 104% 916% Sadr Tamin Investment Company 1,653 131% 175% - Tajhiz Niroo Zangan 10 46% 37% 556% Petroleum Pars Oil 709 92% 137% 18% Sepahan Oil Company 577 41% 58% -51% PolyacrylIran 151 0% -11% - Chemical Ranguin Industrial and Chemical Co. 25 -23% -39% - Kaf 39 100% 122% 240% Ayandeh Bank 182 863% 758% 254% Banks Iran Zamin Bank 1,816 358% 376% - Melal Credit Institute 3,514 203% 243% - TSE Large Sectors 5 -Year Performance (Normalized in USD) Metals Mining Petroleum 455, Chemical Aug 2020 Banks 333, Aug 2020 297, Aug 2020 243, Aug 2020 191, Aug 2020 Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of ending Aug 2020 *Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum 8 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview September 2020 - Volume 14, No 163 Market Snapshot -Aug 2020 Iran & Regional Markets Iran: A 26-Year Snapshot, Asset Class Annualized Return in US$ (%) P/E Multiple Comparison MSCI Morocco 18.0 14% Kuwait 15.2 Qatar 16.0 6% MSCI Arabian Markets 17.5 5% MSCI GCC Countries 17.9 MSCI Egypt 8.1 Saudi Arabia 29.0 -0.2% UAE 12.5 % Iran 36.7 Turquoise Iran Fund* 26.3 Sub Fund B/C, as of ending Aug 2020 Note: Annual data from 1995 to Aug 2020 Source: CBI, TSE, IFB All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate Iran & International Markets 3 4 Tehran Stock Exchange MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets Average P/E Average P/E Average P/E 36.7 18.2 13.3 1 1-Year Performance
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