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Changing Global Landscape for Base Oils

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Changing Global Landscape for Base Oils Changing Global Landscape for Base Oils 2nd Asian Industrial Lubricants Conference 12-13 November 2019 Singapore Izham Ahmad Senior Editor ICIS www.icis.com 1 Agenda Fundamentals affecting base oils market Crude trend US-China trade war Industrial lubricants in the base oils world Demand, usage Base oils price trends Global base oils supply and demand China, India base oils demand Changing dynamics of Group I and Group II base oils Iran Group I exports IMO 2020 Growth of Group II Rising influence of Middle East base oils www.icis.com 2 2018-2019 – Crude lower as weaker economic outlook weighs on market sentiment www.icis.com 3 Changes in the market structure in 2019 www.icis.com 4 Oil market tighter in H2 2019 but oversupply expected in H1 2020 Supply and Demand Balance 2014-2019 (Source: IEA, EIA) 104 66 102 64 100 62 98 60 96 58 94 bbl/day 56 92 of Supply Days 90 54 88 52 86 50 Total Supply Total Demand OECD Commercial Stocks - Days of Supply www.icis.com 5 Growing political and economic rivalry between US and China US-CHINA TRADE WAR Source: USTR, Chinese Ministry of Commerce www.icis.com 6 China drives global economic growth China remains the main engine of global economic growth Trade, debt and economic reform remain longer-term issues China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy Emphasis on “when” rather than on “whether” Global asset portfolios will rebalance towards Chinese markets to reflect China’s place in the world economy China’s strong growth prospects for investors yearning for yield Trade dispute a catalyst because it will accelerate the diversification away from US market www.icis.com 7 Industrial lubricants in the base oils world www.icis.com 8 Global base oils demand segments • Transportation sector still the biggest segment of the base oils market • Likely to remain so in coming years • Industrial oils segment is second biggest • Limited new technological changes/applications Source: industry www.icis.com 9 Common base oils applications in industrial lubricants Group I • Most commonly used Group II • Gears Naphthenics • Metalworking, pumps • Higher VI Group III • Extreme temperature applications Group III+ • More specialized usage www.icis.com 10 ICIS Group ICIS Group I price trends $/tonne 400.0 450.0 500.0 550.0 600.0 650.0 700.0 750.0 800.0 850.0 Base Oils Group I SN150 FOB Iran USD/tonne Iran FOB SN150 I Group Oils Base 11-Jan-2018 01-Feb-2018 22-Feb-2018 15-Mar-2018 05-Apr-2018 26-Apr-2018 17-May-2018 07-Jun-2018 05-Jul-2018 26-Jul-2018 prices I Iran Group 16-Aug-2018 06-Sep-2018 27-Sep-2018 18-Oct-2018 08-Nov-2018 29-Nov-2018 Base Oils Group I SN500 FOB Iran USD/tonne Iran FOB SN500 I Group Oils Base 20-Dec-2018 17-Jan-2019 07-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 21-Mar-2019 11-Apr-2019 02-May-2019 23-May-2019 20-Jun-2019 11-Jul-2019 01-Aug-2019 22-Aug-2019 12-Sep-2019 03-Oct-2019 24-Oct-2019 $/tonne 400.0 450.0 500.0 550.0 600.0 650.0 700.0 750.0 800.0 850.0 900.0 08-Jan-2018 Base Oils Group I SN150 FOB Asia USD/tonne Asia FOB SN150 I Group Oils Base 25-Jan-2018 13-Feb-2018 05-Mar-2018 22-Mar-2018 11-Apr-2018 30-Apr-2018 18-May-2018 07-Jun-2018 27-Jun-2018 16-Jul-2018 02-Aug-2018 I Asian prices Group 23-Aug-2018 11-Sep-2018 28-Sep-2018 17-Oct-2018 05-Nov-2018 23-Nov-2018 Base Oils Group I SN500 FOB Asia USD/tonne Asia FOB SN500 I Group Oils Base 12-Dec-2018 09-Jan-2019 28-Jan-2019 18-Feb-2019 07-Mar-2019 26-Mar-2019 www.icis.com 12-Apr-2019 03-May-2019 23-May-2019 12-Jun-2019 01-Jul-2019 18-Jul-2019 06-Aug-2019 27-Aug-2019 13-Sep-2019 11 02-Oct-2019 21-Oct-2019 $/tonne 500.0 550.0 600.0 650.0 700.0 750.0 800.0 850.0 900.0 ICIS Group ICIS Group II price trends 09-Aug-2018 23-Aug-2018 06-Sep-2018 20-Sep-2018 04-Oct-2018 18-Oct-2018 01-Nov-2018 Base Oils Group II 15-Nov-2018 29-Nov-2018 13-Dec-2018 03-Jan-2019 17-Jan-2019 31-Jan-2019 14-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 14-Mar-2019 500N 28-Mar-2019 11-Apr-2019 CFR UAE CFR 25-Apr-2019 09-May-2019 23-May-2019 13-Jun-2019 27-Jun-2019 11-Jul-2019 25-Jul-2019 08-Aug-2019 22-Aug-2019 05-Sep-2019 19-Sep-2019 03-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 31-Oct-2019 $/tonne 400.0 450.0 500.0 550.0 600.0 650.0 700.0 750.0 800.0 850.0 900.0 12-Jan-2018 02-Feb-2018 23-Feb-2018 16-Mar-2018 06-Apr-2018 27-Apr-2018 Base Oils Group 500N II FOB/CFR NE Asia 18-May-2018 08-Jun-2018 29-Jun-2018 20-Jul-2018 10-Aug-2018 31-Aug-2018 21-Sep-2018 12-Oct-2018 02-Nov-2018 23-Nov-2018 14-Dec-2018 11-Jan-2019 01-Feb-2019 22-Feb-2019 15-Mar-2019 05-Apr-2019 www.icis.com 26-Apr-2019 17-May-2019 07-Jun-2019 28-Jun-2019 19-Jul-2019 09-Aug-2019 30-Aug-2019 20-Sep-2019 12 11-Oct-2019 01-Nov-2019 Global base oils supply and demand www.icis.com 13 Global Base Oils Demand: Asia Dominates Last Decade: Current Demand Profile: ~ 37m tonnes Incremental Demand, million tonnes 6 North Middle East America 4 & Africa South 2 America 0 -2 -4 Europe & -6 F.USSR Asia Growth in Asian and developing economies barely compensated for loss of demand in mature markets Sources: ICIS Supply & Demand Database, ICIS Analytics www.icis.com 14 Global Base Oils Capacity vs Demand: Regional Dimensions 2017 (million tonnes) 25 Asia Group V (Naph) 20 North America Group IV 15 EU & F.USSR Group III 10 ME & Africa South America Group II 5 Group I 0 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand Regional imbalances are evident for all the key groups, generating trade flows NB: 2017 Middle East capacity count is affected by plant closures (GTLs…), delays, etc. Sources: ICIS Supply & Demand Database, ICIS Analytics www.icis.com 15 Could demand be affected by slower auto sales? • China is world largest automobile market • China’s vehicle sales numbers 2018 vs 2019 • Vehicle sales are slowing • China Mulls Goal of 60% of Auto Sales to Be Electric by 2035: Bloomberg News www.icis.com 16 China’s base oils demand analysis million tonnes China’s base oils apparent consumption China’s base oils consumption 9 10% fell to 8.08m tonnes in 2018 6.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5% 6 Downstream lubricants sector 0% affected by decline in industrial 3 and manufacturing performance -4.2% -5% – reduced Group I demand -8.1% 0 -10% Group II/III demand stable to soft 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 on lower demand for automotive Consumption % change lubricants due to falling car sales Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database www.icis.com 17 India’s car sales have been slowing • Base oils demand from India’s passenger car segment not encouraging • Year-on-year car sales have been slowing • Domestic monthly sales also showing signs of softening www.icis.com 18 India’s base oils imports have not shown steady increases India's base oils imports 2017-2019 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 In tonnes In 100,000 50,000 - January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database 2017 2018 2019 www.icis.com 19 Group I & II base oils’ changing dynamics www.icis.com 20 Global base oil share by group Group I base oils still accounts for largest share of global base oils demand Source: Industry www.icis.com 21 Group I share shrinks, Group II increases: 2018 vs 2025 2018 2025 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Group I Group II Group III Group IV Group V (Naph) Group I Group II Group III Group IV Group V (Naph) Group II becomes a major grade on a global basis but different regional profiles will persist Sources: ICIS Supply & Demand Database, ICIS Analytics www.icis.com 22 US sanctions on Iran have had some impact Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database www.icis.com 23 Iran’s base oils exports 2017-2018 2017 2018 Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database www.icis.com 24 Iran’s base oils exports Jan-Apr 2019 Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database www.icis.com 25 Group I base oils margins will be reduced post IMO 2020 Grp I Margins Pre IMO Grp I Margins Post IMO $/Tonne Product $/Tonne Product $/Tonne VGO Energy / OPEX Co Prodcut Credit Margin Grp I VGO Energy / OPEX Co Prodcut Credit Margin Grp I Sources: ICIS Supply & Demand Database, ICIS Analytics www.icis.com 26 Asia capacity expansions mainly in Group II and Group III Europe ExxonMobil Rotterdam Hebei Feitian Existing GII: 100kta New GII: 1mta Hengli Petrochemical Expanded GII: 350kta Start-up: Feb 2019 New GII/III: 540kta Start-up: Sep 2019 Start-up: Apr 2019 Shanxi Lu’an Shandong Shida Changsheng New GIII+: 600kta China New GII: 300kta IOCL Panipat Start-up: 2019 New GII: 450kta Start-up: Mar 2019 Shandong310 Qingyuan571 Shandong Kaitai New GIII: 100kta1,815 Existing GII: 600kta Start-up: 2025 Petrochemical Expanded GII: 1.4mta New GII: 150kta India Start-up: Mar 2019 Start-up: Mar 2019 IOCL Haldia Hainan Handi Sunshine HPCL Mumbai Existing GI/II: 250kta Existing GII: 300kta Existing GI/II: 450kta390 Additional GIII: 100kta Expanded GII/III: 1mta Additional GII/III: 150kta Start-up: 2020 or beyond Start-up: H1 2020 Start-up: 2020 or beyond Petronas Melaka Existing GIII+: 330kta 490 Additional GIII+: 250kta Malaysia • Not all projects may proceed, although most likely Start-up: 2023 • China’s operating rates uncertain ExxonMobil Singapore Existing GI: 650kta • ExxonMobil Singapore made final investment Existing GII: 1.6mta Singapore decision to go ahead with Phase II expansion Phase I additional GII: 100kta Phase I start-up: May 2019 Phase II additional GII: 1mta Phase II start-up: 2023 Sources: ICIS Supply & Demand Database www.icis.com 27 Middle East has become major player in Group III/III+ Middle East base oils production capacities Group III/Group III+ Group II Group I 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Saudi Aramco/Luberef Saudi Aramco/Luberef
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