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Assessment of Disruption Risk in Supply Chain the Case of Nigeria’S Oil Industry

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Assessment of Disruption Risk in Supply Chain the Case of Nigeria’S Oil Industry Assessment Of Disruption Risk In Supply Chain The Case Of Nigeria’s Oil Industry Item Type Thesis Authors Aroge, Olatunde O. Publisher University of Bradford Rights <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by- nc-nd/3.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a <a rel="license" href="http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/">Creative Commons Licence</a>. Download date 03/10/2021 13:39:49 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17396 Assessment Of Disruption Risk In Supply Chain The Case Of Nigeria’s Oil Industry Olatunde Olushola Aroge Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Informatics University of Bradford 2018 ABSTRACT Olatunde Olushola Aroge Thesis Title: Assessment of Disruption Risk in Supply Chain Sub-title: The Case of Nigeria’s Oil Industry Keywords: Risk management; Disruption risk; Supply chain resilience; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM); Coefficient of Regression; Analysis of Variance (ANOVA); Nigerian oil industry. The aim of this study is to develop a consistent approach to analyse and evaluate disruption risks in the supply chain of petroleum production. This methodology is developed to formalise and facilitate the systematic integration and implementation of various models; such as analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) and various statistical tests. The methodology is validated with the case of Nigeria’s oil industry. The study revealed the need to provide a responsive approach to managing the influence of geopolitical risk factors affecting supply chain in the petroleum production industry. However, the exploration and production risk, and geopolitical risk were identified as concomitant risk factors that impact performance in Nigeria’s oil industry. The research findings show that behavioural-based mechanisms successfully predict the ability of the petroleum industry to manage supply chain risks. The significant implication for this study is that the current theoretical debate on the supply chain risk management creates the understanding of agency theory as a governing mechanism for supply chain risk in the Nigerian oil industry. The systematic approach results provide an insight and objective information for decisions-making in resolving disruption risk to the petroleum supply chain in Nigeria. Furthermore, this study highlights to stakeholders on how to develop supply chain risk management strategies for mitigating and building resilience in the supply chain in the Nigerian oil industry. The developed systematic method is associated with supply chain risk management and performance measure. The approach facilitates an effective way for the stakeholders to plan according to their risk mitigation strategies. This will consistently help the stakeholders to evaluate supply chain risk and respond to disruptions in supply chain. This capability will allow for efficient management of supply chain and provide the organization with quicker response to customer needs, continuity of supply, lower costs of operations and improve return on investment in the Nigeria oil industry. Therefore, the methodology applied provide a new way for implementing good practice for managing disruption risk in supply chain. Further, the systematic approach provides a simplistic modelling process for disruption risk evaluation for researchers and oil industry professionals. This approach would develop a holistic procedure for monitoring and controlling disruption risk in supply chains practices in Nigeria. Supervisors: Dr. Nejat Rahmanian, and Dr. Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez ii Declaration I Olatunde Olushola Aroge, declare that no part of this thesis has been taken from existing publication or unpublished material without due acknowledgement and that all secondary material used therein has been fully referenced. Signed ------------------------ iii Acknowledgements I give all glory to God for seeing me through the completion of my doctoral studies. Indeed, I remain indebted to my supervisors Dr Nejat Rahmanian, Dr Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez and Dr Reza M. Abdi for their relentless support and invaluable contribution to the success of this thesis. If not for the advice, guidance, encouragement and ability to continuously manage my personal challenges in the course of this journey, it would have been impossible to achieve this task. To all, I say thank you. I equally extend my special thanks to the Dr Jian-Ping Li, Director of Postgraduate study, for his continuous support during and after my transfer from Bradford School of Management to the Faculty of Engineering and Informatics. My gratitude goes to all the support staff and lecturers in the Faculty of Engineering and Informatics and Faculty of Management and Law and the Graduate Schools at the University of Bradford, who as a team, produced the stimulating coursework for the Ph.D programmes in Operations and Information Management at the University of Bradford, United Kingdom. I would also like to express my profound gratitude to Mrs Kate Bolanle Afolayan for her immense contribution to the success of this project. Also, I thank the management of the petroleum exploration industry for granting my request for the collection of data by allowing their employees to contribute their practical experience on disruption risk in the petroleum exploration and production zone in Nigeria. There are many more people who deserve to be mentioned for their assistance in their diverse capacities towards the successful completion of my doctoral studies. God Bless. iv Table Of Contents PAGE Abstract ....................................................................................................... ii Declaration ................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements .................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ....................................................................................... v List of Tables.............................................................................................. xi List of Figures ........................................................................................... xii List of Abbreviations ................................................................................. xiii Research Dissemination ........................................................................... xv CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.0 Background ..................................................................................... 1 1.1 Rationale and Justification for this Study......................................... 5 1.2 Identification of Research Problem ................................................. 7 1.3 Research Gaps ............................................................................. 15 1.4 Research Aim ................................................................................ 15 1.5 Objectives of this Study ................................................................. 16 1.6 Research Questions ...................................................................... 17 1.7 Contribution of this Study .............................................................. 17 1.8 Thesis Outline ............................................................................... 20 CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework 2.0 Introduction ................................................................................... 22 2.1 Supply Chain ................................................................................. 22 2.2 Supply Chain Management and Competitive Advantage .............. 27 2.3 Risks and Uncertainties in Supply Chain....................................... 30 2.4 Supply Chain Risk ......................................................................... 32 2.5 Sources of Global Supply Chain Risk ........................................... 35 2.5.1 Organizational Related Risks ............................................... 39 2.5.2 Network Related Risk ........................................................... 40 2.5.3 Environmental Related Risk ............................................... 42 2.6 Impact of Risk in Global Supply Chain Management .................... 43 v 2.7 Risk Avoidance / Mitigation Practices in Global Organization ....... 48 2.7.1 Handling vulnerability in supply chain disruption ................ 48 2.7.2 Systematic Methods ........................................................... 50 2.8 An Integrated Approach for Managing Disruptive Risk in SC ........ 53 2.9 Risk Management Practices in Nigeria.......................................... 56 2.10 SCRM: Decision Making Model and Technique ............................ 60 2.10.1 Risk Identification ............................................................... 60 2.10.2 Risk Assessment ................................................................ 61 2.10.3 Mitigating Supply Chain Risk .............................................. 62 2.11 Petroleum Supply Chain Risk Management ................................. 64 2.12 Critiques for Modelling Supply Chain Risk Management ............. 66 2.13 Conclusion ...................................................................................
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