Daniels a Fierce Partisan Vs. Unions Early Executive Order Freed up Reforms, but UAW Survived the ‘Chrysler Cramdown’ by BRIAN A
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V17, N6 Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011 Daniels a fierce partisan vs. unions Early executive order freed up reforms, but UAW survived the ‘Chrysler cramdown’ By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Even liberals and union members grudgingly acknowl- edge that Mitch Daniels has been a strong governor, firmly in control. His new book “Keeping the Republic: Saving American by Trusting Americans” makes it clear that when it comes to unions, the governor is a fierce parti- san who has Gov. Mitch Daniels with Chrysler and UAW officials at the announcement of the Getrag taken aim at Transmission plant in Tipton in 2007. He praised the automaker and the union for work- collective bar- ing together on that project that was ultimately killed by the economy, but in 2009 tried gaining and to kill the Chrysler/Fiat merger on rule of law principle. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) was willing to sacrifice with a potentially huge political impact. Indiana’s auto sector, even if As General Motors and Chrysler teetered on the it had thrown the state from a brink of bankruptcy in late 2008, Daniels was adamantly Great Recession to a Depres- sion, based on principle, but Continued on page 3 Is ‘12 shaping up like ‘80? By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON - So you think some of Texas Gover- nor Rick Perry’s views are too far out of the mainstream to be acceptable to most independent voters? That’s what some detractors “We would not be here today were saying about former California at the very precipice of such a Governor Ronald Reagan in 1979, a year before the 1980 presidential dangerous move if the Obama elections. Yet Reagan went on to easily defeat incumbent President policy in the Middle East wasn’t Jimmy Carter. naive, misguided and danger- With the economy sput- tering and approval ratings falling, ous.” comparisons between the Carter and - Texas Gov. Rick Perry HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011 the Obama presidencies are appear- And, currently at least, there is no in- ing with increasing frequency. The dependent candidate challenge for the implication, of course, is that Barack presidency, as there was in 1980 when Obama is headed for a similar fate as liberal Republican Congressman John Carter in his re-election bid. The ex- Anderson ran for president siphoning www.HoweyPolitics.com treme views of Republican frontrunner off Democratic support for Carter. Rick Perry will not stand in the way Aside from the factors in of voters demanding change in 2012, Lichtman’s model, there have been Howey Politics some argue, if the economy continues significant demographic changes since Indiana to falter just as Reagan’s views didn’t 1980 that bolster Obama’s chances is a non-partisan newsletter prevent voters from voting out Carter. of winning re-election. Obama easily based in Indianapolis. It was But it is much too early to defeated John McCain in 2008 while founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. reach such conclusions and there are winning only 43% of the white vote, fundamental differences between the while Carter lost in a landslide in 1980 two elections. At least one expert, with 43% of the white vote. Brian A. Howey, Publisher American University professor Allan According to a recent National Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Lichtman, flatly predicts Obama will be Journal analysis, Obama can win key Jack E. Howey, editor re-elected. Lichtman has developed a battleground states such as Florida, Beverly K. Phillips, associate model he calls “The Keys To the White Nevada, New Jersey, even Virginia, House” for predicting the outcome of even as his share of the white vote editor presidential elections. Using his model, drops because of increased minority Lichtman has accurately predicted the voting. And, on top of that, Obama’s Subscriptions correct winner of every presidential share of the senior citizen vote - $350 annually HPI Weekly election since he developed it in 1984. Obama’s weakest demographic group Lichtman’s model is based on - is likely to improve if Perry becomes $550 annually HPI Weekly and 13 keys that evaluate the performance the Republican nominee. Perry’s state- HPI Daily Wire. of the incumbent president. If six or ments calling Social Security a Ponzi 'Call 317.627.6746 more of the keys produce a negative scheme will undoubtedly push some rating with the sitting president, the reluctant seniors into Obama corner. incumbent’s party loses the presiden- Rick Perry will have con- Contact HPI tial election. siderably more difficulty winning Howey Politics Indiana Lichtman says none of the independent, suburban voters than 6255 N. Evanston Ave. individual keys by themselves are did Ronald Reagan in 1980. For one Indianapolis, IN 46220 enough to predict the outcome. Thus, thing, Reagan’s views never worried www.howeypolitics.com a poor economy by itself or even in most voters. Reagan was a well- conjunction with a small number of known and well-liked public figure [email protected] other keys are insufficient to push a long before he ran for President. His 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 sitting president out of office. Obama unsuccessful campaign for President 'Washington: 703.248.0909 is winning 9 of the 13 keys. Lichtman in 1976 against Gerald Ford put him 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 says that record is enough to convince in the spotlight and provided him with him that Obama will win re-election. valuable national exposure. Reagan’s The reality is that Carter’s soothing style was re-assuring, not © 2011, Howey Politics Indiana. problems ran significantly deeper than worrisome to most Americans, his All rights reserved. Photocopy- Obama’s. Like Obama, Carter faced views notwithstanding. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- economic policy failures. But Carter The blustery Rick Perry is ing or reproducing in any form, also experienced significant foreign introducing himself to the nation for whole or part, is a violation of policy defeats, most notably the Iran the first-time. While the Republican hostage crisis and the failed rescue base is enthusiastically embracing his federal law without permission attempt. In addition, Carter faced a candidacy, most independent vot- from the publisher. v serious challenge for the nomination ers and conservative Democrats (the within his own party as Senator Ed- so-called “Reagan Democrats”) view ward Kennedy contested Carter in pri- Perry warily. Perry’s views and style maries and caucuses, winning several. do scare many independents. Further, HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011 the Texas governor looks and sounds too much like his it isn’t likely. 2012 is shaping up as a year, like 1964 and predecessor at a time when approval of George W. Bush’s 1980, when the Republican base seems to be demanding presidency remains low. that the party nominate one of its own. The Republican This isn’t to say the odds for Barack Obama’s base has never warmed up to Mitt Romney. And, while re-election are overwhelming. Though the killing of Osama some in the Republican establishment continue to hope Bin Laden has elevated Obama’s favorable ratings on for- for a more acceptable alternative to Perry, none is likely to eign policy and protecting the country to a very high level, emerge at this late date. there is always time for a disaster overseas. And, Ralph Barack Obama has struggled in his first term as Nader’s possible Democratic primary challenges to Obama President. But that is a far cry from a failed presidency as - while not in the same league as Kennedy’s challenge to many consider Carter’s. Besides, Obama is a much bet- Carter - could prove to be a genuine distraction. ter campaigner than anyone the Republicans can put up Finally, the Republican Party could wake up and against him short of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. nominate a more electable opponent than Rick Perry. But v average private sector worker, adding, “When benefits are Daniels, from page 1 counted, the gap widens significantly.” “The movement begun by people such as Samuel against throwing “good money after bad” to bail the sec- Gompers and Eugene V. Debs to protect the coal miner, the tor out. Daniels said at North Manchester that the Indiana steelworker, and the sweatshop seamstress now belongs Economic Development Corporation was only interested in to white collar types who live off taxes paid by coal miners, investing in new auto companies, and at the Greensburg steelworkers ….” opening of the non-union Honda plant, he suggested that Daniels takes aim at the AFSCME, SEIU and U.S. automakers would be wise to emulate their Japanese National Education Association which had $170 million to counterparts. “Viewing the contrast between their own vigorous expansion versus our struggles, Asian nations can only concede that their traditional culture and gov- ernance principals are being vindicated,” Daniels writes. He cites Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew contrast- ing the virtues of Asia’s Confuscian culture – “order, discipline, family responsibility, hard work, collectivism, abstemiousness – to self-indulgence, sloth, individual- ism, crime, inferior education, disrespect for authority, and mental ossification responsible for the decline of the West.” “To compete with the East, the United States needs to question its fundamental assumptions about its social and political arrangements and, in the process, learn a thing or two from East Asian societies,” Daniels writes in the chapter, “The Red Menace.” He backs up his assertions with headlines he collected from a trip Gov. Daniels on his second day in office after issuing Executive Order to Asia in November 2010 that presented a litany of 05-14 ending collective bargaining for state employees.