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Report by Tim Veitch North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee Report by Tim Veitch July 2019 Report by Tim Veitch North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee Report by Tim Veitch Project No. 16-081 i Report by Tim Veitch North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 2. Qualifications and experience ..................................................................................... 1 3. Technical Report .......................................................................................................... 1 4. Further work since preparation of the Technical Report........................................... 1 5. Summary of issues, opinions and recommendations ............................................... 4 6. Submissions ................................................................................................................. 5 6.1 Submissions received ............................................................................................................. 5 6.2 Summary of issues raised ....................................................................................................... 6 6.3 Response to issues raised ...................................................................................................... 7 6.3.1 Issues related to the robustness and realism of the traffic modelling ................................................ 7 6.3.1.1 Accuracy of the forecasts ........................................................................................................... 7 6.3.1.2 EES study area ........................................................................................................................... 8 6.3.1.3 Forecast years ............................................................................................................................ 9 6.3.1.4 Peak period definitions ............................................................................................................... 9 6.3.1.5 Modelling of travel times ........................................................................................................... 10 6.3.1.6 Modelling of travel demand induced by North East Link ........................................................... 14 6.3.1.7 Modelling of mode choices ....................................................................................................... 19 6.3.1.8 Modelling of drivers’ willingness to pay the North East Link tolls .............................................. 22 6.3.1.9 Realism of the forecast traffic impacts on the Eastern Freeway and M80 ................................ 23 6.3.1.10 Approach to trip distribution ...................................................................................................... 25 6.3.2 Issues related to future year modelling assumptions ...................................................................... 28 6.3.2.1 Included and excluded projects in forecast years ..................................................................... 28 6.3.2.2 Public transport network assumptions ...................................................................................... 29 6.3.2.3 Demographic and land use assumptions .................................................................................. 30 6.3.2.4 Emerging technologies ............................................................................................................. 32 6.3.3 Issues related to the traffic and transport impacts of the Project ..................................................... 32 6.3.3.1 Impact on driver behaviour from Eltham ................................................................................... 33 6.3.3.2 Impact on driver behaviour from the Hume Freeway ................................................................ 33 6.3.3.3 Construction traffic .................................................................................................................... 36 6.3.3.4 Traffic impacts on the EastLink Tunnels ................................................................................... 36 6.3.3.5 Traffic impacts around Hoddle Street, Alexandra Parade and the western end of the Eastern Freeway 36 6.3.3.6 Traffic impacts outside of the EES study area .......................................................................... 36 6.3.3.7 The effect of the North East Link project on public transport patronage ................................... 41 7. Response to IAC Questions and Further Information Request .............................. 42 8. Environmental Performance Requirements ............................................................. 43 9. Declaration ................................................................................................................. 43 Annexure A - Matters Raised by PPV Guide to Expert Evidence ................................... 45 Annexure B - Tim Veitch’s Curriculum Vitae ................................................................... 49 Annexure C – Letter of Instruction ................................................................................... 53 ii Report by Tim Veitch North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee 1. Introduction Veitch Lister Consulting (VLC) prepared the report titled “Transport Modelling Summary Report” (Technical Report) which is attached as Appendix B of Technical Report A to the Environment Effects Statement (EES) for North East Link (Project). I have been instructed by Clayton Utz on behalf of NELP to review and respond to the public submissions and give evidence on the environmental effects of the Project relevant to my area of expertise. 2. Qualifications and experience Annexure A contains a statement setting out my qualifications and experience, and the other matters raised by Planning Panels Victoria's Guide to Expert Evidence. A copy of my curriculum vitae is provided as Annexure B. 3. Technical Report The role that I had in preparing the Technical Report was as an Expert Technical Advisor. In that role I was responsible for providing specialist technical advice, including advice related to model design, development and application. I also reviewed and approved the Technical Report. Other significant contributors to the Technical Report (VLC team) and their expertise is set out as follows: • Aaron Alaimo – Project Manager – Qualifications: Bachelor of Engineering (Civil), Monash University 1997; • Lawrence Leung – Senior Transport Modeller – Qualifications: Master of Engineering (Mechatronics), University of Melbourne, 2014. Bachelor of Science Mechanical Systems, University of Melbourne, 2012. Diploma Informatics, University of Melbourne, 2012; and • Clements Chan – Transport Modeller – Qualifications: Bachelor of Science and Engineering (Civil), Monash University 2018. I adopt the Technical Report, in combination with this statement, as my written expert evidence for the purposes of the North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee's inquiry into the environmental effects of the Project. 4. Further work since preparation of the Technical Report Since the Technical Report was finalised, the VLC team has undertaken further work in relation to the potential impact of future vehicle technologies and business models. A summary of the findings in relation to this further work is as follows: • Connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology (without any increase in car pooling) has the potential to increase traffic volumes, primarily due to an increase in empty running, and people switching trips from public transport to car. While this increase would be somewhat offset by an increase in freeway capacity, the net effect may be a slow down in average travel speeds across the road network; • A shift from private car usage to on-demand ride sharing using mini-busses (with an assumed average occupancy of 6.7 passengers per vehicle) has the potential to reduce traffic volumes, and improve average travel speeds across the road network; • In the CAV scenario, the impact of North East Link on travel demands and travel times was found to be similar to the scenario presented in the EES; and • In the on-demand ride sharing using mini-busses scenario, the impact of North East Link on travel demands was similar to the scenario presented in the EES, but the travel time savings delivered by North East Link were somewhat reduced (because the road network was less congested in this scenario). 1 Report by Tim Veitch North East Link Inquiry and Advisory Committee The above findings reflect the combined effect of numerous assumptions, many of which may never occur, or may occur in a different way to what was envisaged. There is significant uncertainty over the impact of these and other technologies. In addition, the VLC team has continued working to improve the strategic model, following its use as part of the EES. The version of the model used in the EES was version C2, while the new version is C3. The new C3 version is being used to support the development of the Outline Scope and Requirements (OSR) to support a potential tendering process. In summary, the key improvements made in version C3 are: • Improved calibration of truck volumes by time of day, with a particular focus on the Eastern Freeway where the model previously over-estimated truck volumes; • Updates to the toll diversion curves (which are responsible for modelling toll
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