August 1922) James Francis Cooke
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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Amica Items for Sale
THE AMICA NEWS BULLETIN Published by the AutomatiC Musical Instrument Collectors' Association, a non-profit club devoted to the restoration, distribu tion and enjoyment of musIcal Instruments using perforated paper music rolls. Contributions: All subjects of interest to readers of the bulletin are encouraged and Invited by the publisher, All artIcles must be received by the 10th of the preceding month. Every attempt will be made to publish all articles of general Interest to AMICA members at the earliest possible time and at the discretion of the publisher. ADVERTISING Line ad rate: 8q per word, $1.20 minimum. OFFICERS Page rate: $12.50 per quarter page or multiple thereof. Ad copy will be typeset (at additional cost) only if requested. INTERNATIONAL CHAPTER ~ Each photograph or half-tone, $5.00 OFFICERS OFFICERS ~ Camera-ready copy that is oversized or underSized will be changed to correct Size at your cost. PRESIDENT NO. CALIFORNIA - Camera-ready copy must reach the pUblisher by the 10th of the preceeding month. Bo.b Rosencrans Pres.: Frank loob Cash must accompany order, Typesetting or size alteration VICE-PRESIDENT Vice Pres.: Howard Koff charges will be billed separately. Make checks payable to Richard Drewniak Sec.: Dick Reutlinger AMICA INTERNATIONAL. Treas.: Bill Wherry SECRETARY All ads will appear on the last pages of the BULLETIN, at the Reporter: Diane Lillibridge Isadora Koff discretion of the publisher. SO. CALIFORNIA BULLETIN Publication of business advertising in no way Implies AMICA's Pres.: Prentiss Knowlton endorsement of any commercial operation. However, AMICA re Tom Beckett ,Vice Pres. Elliott N. Lacy serves the fight to refuse any ad that is not in keeping with AMICA's 6817 Cliffbrook Drive Sec.: Evelyn Meeder general standards or If complaiots are received indicating that said Dallas, Texas 75240 business does not serve the best Interests of the members of Trcas.: Jim Christopher AMICA, according to its goals i:lnd by-laws. -
I Hotel Westminster SMULLEN &
4 BOSTON, MASS., MONDAY, MAY 6, 1907 4I BOSONI MASS. M M 6 19 -, I HOLLIS STREET THEATRE. DON'T EAT T., E,MOSELEY & 00, There will be only one more UNTIL YOU VISIT Established 1847 week of the stay of "The Rogers TH A V NUE C AFE; Brothers in Ireland" at the Hollis For Steaks and Chops we Lead them all. For Street Theatre, and then these Everything First-Class at Moderate Prices. Tech merry comedians will take their 471, OLUMBUS AVE. leave of the Boston stage with the WM. PINK & GO. ' ' NEAR WEST NEWTON ST. Men jolliest vaudeville farce that they 14 have ever brought here. Ireland C. A. FATTEN & CO. is an ideal spot for the droll Ger- man comedians to visit, and the Merchant Tailors land of jigs and pretty colleens ap- DM 1. MFMC> SU ITS peals to everybody. The come- FIJL D SCsE SUIrS OUR SPECIAL OFFER $45 dians have hosts of new things this season, and the company which 43 TREMONT ST., Carney Bldg. they have in their support is better Slippers and Ithan any of its predecessors. DR. W. J. CURRIER PARK THEATRE. Pumps OFFICE HOURS 9 TO 4 ER'S I LAN Moccasins, Skates Boston is to have a week of 90 HUNTINGTON AVENUE and Snow Shoes Lu grand opera with Italian celebri- Refers by permission to Prof. T. H. Bartlett unch and Coffee House 145 Tremont Street ties at the Park Theatre, the at- traction being the San Carlo Opera Drawing-Inks Eternal Writing-Ink Company. Alice Nielsen, the ....... -
Federal Reserve Bulletin October 1922
FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (FINAL EDITION) ISSUED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD AT WASHINGTON OCTOBER, 1922 WASHINGTON GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1922 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD. Ex officio members: -, Governor. A. W. MELLON, EDMUND PLATT, Vice Governor. Secretary of the Treasury, Chairman. ADOLPH C. MILLER. D. R. CRISSINGER, CHARLES S. HAMLIN. Comptroller of the Currency. I JOHN R. MITCHELL. W. W. HOXTON, Secretary. j WALTER WYATT, General Counsel. W. L. EDDY, Assistant Secretary. j WALTER W. STEWART, I Director, Division of Analysis and Research. W. M. IMLAY, Fiscal Agent. M. JACOBSON, Statistician. J. F. HERSON, E. A. GOLDENWEISER, Associate Statistician. Chief, Division of Examination and Chief Federal E. L. SMEAD, Reserve Examiner. Chief, Division cf Bank Operations. FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL. (For the year 1922.) DISTRICT NO. 1 (BOSTON) PHILIP STOCKTON. DISTRICT NO. 2 (NEW YORK) PAUL M. WARBURG, Vice President. DISTRICT NO. 3 (PHILADELPHIA) L. L. RUE, President. DISTRICT NO. 4 (CLEVELAND) CORLISS E. SULLIVAN. DISTRICT NO. 5 (RICHMOND) J. G. BROWN. DISTRICT NO. 6 (ATLANTA) EDWARD W. LANE. DISTRICT NO. 7 (CHICAGO) „ JOHN J. MITCHELL. DISTRICT NO. 8 (ST. LOUIS) FESTUS J. WADE. DISTRICT NO. 9 (MINNEAPOLIS) G. II. PRINCE. DISTRICT NO. 10 (KANSAS CITY) E. F. SWINNEY. DISTRICT NO. 11 (DALLAS) R. L. BALL. DISTRICT NO. 12 (SAN FRANCISCO) D. W. TWOHY. II Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis OFFICERS OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. Federal Reserve Bank of— | Chairman. Governor. Deputy governor. Cashier. Boston Frederic H. Curtiss.. Chas. A. Mores C. -
San Franciscans Soon to Hear "The Secret of Suzanne" "STELLAR MEMBERS of the MUSICAL PROFESSION WHO ARE APPEARING BEFORE SAN FRANCISCO AUDIENCES
THE SAN FRANCISCO CALL, SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 1912. 31 San Franciscans Soon to Hear "The Secret of Suzanne" "STELLAR MEMBERS OF THE MUSICAL PROFESSION WHO ARE APPEARING BEFORE SAN FRANCISCO AUDIENCES. certs early In December. The noted con^ tralto comes here under Greenbaum'i Wolf Ferrari's Opera to Be Played management and will be remembered for her success of last season. She wll appear before the St. Francis Muslca Afternoon of November 17 Art society Tuesday night, December 3 tenor, promises much of musical enter- tainment. Miss Turner is one of the Powell,* * violinist,* comes t( pianists, program Miss Maud By WALTER ANTHONY best of local and the conoertize for us during the first wee! has been selected carefully, as the fol- opportunity a change the concert in December. Among her selections sh< FRANCISCO'S first I complete in pro- lowing wll. show: is featuring a composition by the lat< to hear Wolf Ferrari's opera, i gram. By special request Miss Niel- Sonata, op. 18 (piano and riollnl Rubinstein Coleridge-Taylor, who dedicated his las j Two movements ?Moderate, con moto, SAN"The Secret of Susanne." will sen and Miss Swartz will sing the moderato var. 1. 11. concerto to the American violinist. "Mme. Butterfly." which (a) "From Out Thine Eyes My Songs Are1 . occur Sunday afternoon. November j duet from in Flowing" '...'. Ries IT. when the band of singers they created a sensation last year at i*b) "Time Enough". Nevln SUITOR PROVES FALSE: (C> gathered the production of "Molly Bawn" Lover WOMAN SEEKS DEATH together by Andreas Dip- Boston Puccini's Ballade, op. -
Monday Morning, February 5, 1962 Features 2 Schedule of Eventa 3
Monday Morning, February 5, 1962 Features 2 Art MMMMi— 7 Schedule of Eventa 3 MUSÍ« s»i^..,es,.se.,sssesssa 8 , 9 B ooks — - ........... 4t Ftlxus ' »Mt»»».»»»»—#»« »» w m • 10 Radio-X Ï & Theatre Michigan Stole New» SPOTLIGHT, Monday Morning, February 5, 1962 Fate of U S. Lies in Education Education must solve prob and unification of education age is a crucial one and will By DIANE TURNS | lead the country to the number become more so in the coming SPOTLIGHT Feature Writer one position in culture, industry lems in three major areas in standards throughout the . I and military power. order to meet the challenges of country. Kleis saM that a na years. Ernest O. Melby, profes tional commission to set the sor of education and former America is facing a crisis in How can our present schools the future. MSU educators said, j education—a crisis upon which They are: standards for the local dis Montana State University pres meet these challenges for the tricts to carry out would work ident. said there is a two-way rests the fate of the nation, future? 1. Raising the standards. of | American schools today are education. — j the best. solution to the problem: more, faced with the problem of edu The answer is simple: They 2. Finding more and better j “With social mobility it makes prestige for teachers and high cating tomorrow’s citizens to can't. teachers. a difference what education is er salaries. —• _ 3. Raising funds to meet fu- like all over the United States, J “ If-we come to put a high ture needs. -
Thejoy That Comes with Music
(I Jnfernafionaf JlJRJ8Jl SEND IN YOUR SUGGESTIONS FOR RECUTTING BY NICK JARRETT Mieczyslaw Manz, 75, Is Dead; I know many of us have a pet roll or rolls we would A Concert Pianist and Teacher like to see recut. I took this matter up with . Mieczyslaw Munz, a fonner major, the Brahms concerto in Elwood Hansen, owner of the plant at Turlock. He concert pianist who appeared D minor and the Franck Sym assured me that there is no exclusive contract to ~ith many of the.world's lead- phonic Variations. prevent such a project, and suggested that I might 109 orchestras, di~ yesterday Mr Munz made his solo of a heart attack 10 an ambu-' . co-ordinate requests from the membership. Please lance as he was being taken to debut at Aeoli:an, Hall 10 New write and let me know what ~ would like. hospital from his home at the York on Oct. 20, 1922. The Ten Park Avenue Hotel. He New York Times review called was 75 years old. him "an absorbed artist, under It has been suggested that special attention be Mr. Munz, who taught at the whose hands mere tricks and given to the type of rolls that seldom appear on Juilliard School for 12 years, graces of piano playm'.. fall was scheduled to return to the . • lists of recuts: PIANO music played by the great Juilliard School next month, away as chips from the sculp- artists of the reproducing piano's heyday. This is after a sabbatical year of teach- tor's chisel, wbliIe he lays ~are iing at Giebel University in the larger curves of sustamed not an attempt to put AMR or Klavier out of business, Tokyo. -
The Fortune Teller the OHIO LIGHT OPERA STEVEN BYESS STEVEN DAIGLE Conductor Artistic Director the Fortune Teller
VICTOR HERBERT The Fortune Teller THE OHIO LIGHT OPERA STEVEN BYESS STEVEN DAIGLE Conductor Artistic Director The Fortune Teller Music......................................Victor Herbert ENSEMBLE: Book and Lyrics......................Harry B. Smith Jacob Allen, Natalie Ballenger, Sarah Best, Lori Birrer, John Vocal Score Reconstruction........Adam Aceto Callison, Ashley Close, Christopher Cobbett, Mary Griffin, Anna-Lisa Hackett, Geoffrey Kannerberg, Andy Maughan, Ohio Light Opera Olivia Maughan, Evan McCormack, Geoffrey Penar, Will Perkins, Madeline Piscetta, Zachary Rusk, Mark Snyder, Raina Thorne, Artistic Director........................Steven Daigle Angela Vågenes, Joey Wilgenbusch. Conductor.................................Steven Byess Stage Director.......................Ted Christopher Sound Designer..........................Brian Rudell PROGRAM NOTES ...............................Michael D. Miller Choreographer.....................Carol Hageman Victor Herbert, acknowledged as Costume Designer.................Whitney Locher the Father of American Operetta, Scenic Designer...............................Erich Keil was born in Dublin in 1859, the Lighting Designer.....................Krystal Kennel grandson of Irish novelist-artist- Production Stage Manager...Katie Humphrey composer Samuel Lover. The family eventually moved to Stuttgart where CAST: Victor’s initial studies toward a Musette / Irma...........................Amy Maples career in medicine or law were soon Sandor...........................David Kelleher-Flight replaced -
The Journal of San Diego History
Volume 51 Winter/Spring 2005 Numbers 1 and 2 • The Journal of San Diego History The Jour na l of San Diego History SD JouranalCover.indd 1 2/24/06 1:33:24 PM Publication of The Journal of San Diego History has been partially funded by a generous grant from Quest for Truth Foundation of Seattle, Washington, established by the late James G. Scripps; and Peter Janopaul, Anthony Block and their family of companies, working together to preserve San Diego’s history and architectural heritage. Publication of this issue of The Journal of San Diego History has been supported by a grant from “The Journal of San Diego History Fund” of the San Diego Foundation. The San Diego Historical Society is able to share the resources of four museums and its extensive collections with the community through the generous support of the following: City of San Diego Commission for Art and Culture; County of San Diego; foundation and government grants; individual and corporate memberships; corporate sponsorship and donation bequests; sales from museum stores and reproduction prints from the Booth Historical Photograph Archives; admissions; and proceeds from fund-raising events. Articles appearing in The Journal of San Diego History are abstracted and indexed in Historical Abstracts and America: History and Life. The paper in the publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Science-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984. Front cover: Detail from ©SDHS 1998:40 Anne Bricknell/F. E. Patterson Photograph Collection. Back cover: Fallen statue of Swiss Scientist Louis Agassiz, Stanford University, April 1906. -
THE CULVER CITIZEN. Reorders Offj C« Hav06 L a K E : Maxinkuckee
THE CULVER CITIZEN. Reorders Offj c« Hav06 l a k e : maxinkuckee VOL. IV. CULVER, INDIANA, THURSDAY, MARCH 7f 1907. NO. 45 such excellent tables. It was more C H U R C H NEWS. than the visitors expected. The IN BEHALF association tries to prevent the AT THE WEEK DOINGS ACADEMY Itrmo Pertaining to the Work of the meeting from being a burden aud cafe to the people where it is held Loval Organizations. OF YOUTH and they were not looking for such Rev. Mr. Klopfenstein was un IN CULVER entertainment. Happenings of Interest and Personal Paragraphs able to preach last Sunday. For The assooiation was able to turn the i>ust three weeks he has beeu Sunday School Workers of Mar over to Mr. Halpcnny the couuty’s Gathered at the School the Past Week. confined to his bed with a severe Little Items of Local happenings of shall County Mold Annual apportionment of 350 to the state cold on his lungs. Interest to People in Town | work, and had a balance on band Rev. J. S. Crowder of Plymouth Convention in Culver 'sufficient to pay for advertising is assisting Rev. Mr. Nicely iu the and Country . and other expenses Tho track team continues to win. W. Renfranz and Ray Oarnfield, official meetings this week. He is a T o Mrs Mary Hume moro than On Saturday it was Wendell Phil South Bend, Ind.; Willard Smith. live man and is giving tbe people LIVE ISSUES AND PRACTICAL to any other ono person is duo the lip s high school of Chicago who Orange. -
Germany 1919-1941 U.S
U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS : GERMANY 1919-1941 U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS: GERMANY, 1919-1941 Edited by Dale Reynolds Guide Compiled by Robert Lester A Microfilm Project of UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA, INC. 44 North Market Street • Frederick, MD 21701 Copyright© 1983 by University Publications of America, Inc. All rights reserved. ISBN 0-89093^26-6. Note on Sources The Documents in this Collection are from the National Archives and Record Service, Washington, D.C., Record Group #165. Mil- itary Intelligence Division Files: Germany. TABLE OF CONTENTS Red Index 1 Reel I 1 Reel II 6 Reel III 10 Reel IV 15 Reel V 18 Reel VI 22 Reel VII 25 Reel VIII 29 Reel IX 31 Reel X 33 Reel XI 33 Reel XII 34 Reel XIII 35 Reel XIV 38 Reel XV 39 Reel XVI 41 Reel XVII 43 Reel XVIII 45 Reel XIX 47 Reel XX 49 Reel XXI 52 Reel XXII 54 Reel XXIII 56 Reel XXIV 58 Reel XXV 61 Reel XXVI 63 Reel XXVII 65 Reel XXVIII 68 Subject Index 71 Dates to Remember February 3,1917 Severance of U.S. Diplomatic Relations with Germany; Declara- tion of War November 11,1918 Armistice December 1, 1918 U.S. Troops of the 3rd Army cross the Rhine and Occupy the Rhine Province July 2,1919 Departure of the U.S. 3rd Army; the U.S. Army of the Rhine Occupies Coblenz in the Rhine Province December 10, 1921 Presentation of Credentials of the U.S. Charge d'Affaires in Berlin April 22, 1922 Withdrawal of U.S. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions.