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Il Quaderno Sism 2017 Economic Warfare ECONOMICwarfare STORIA DELL’ARMA ECONOMICA QUADERNO 2017 A cura di Virgilio Ilari e Giuseppe Della Torre Società Italiana di Storia Militare Acies Edizioni Milano PROPRIETÀ LETTERARIA tutti i diritti riservati: Vietata anche la riproduzione parziale senza autorizzazione. ma gli Autori conservano il diritto di pubblicare altrove il proprio contributo © 2017 Società Italiana di Storia Militare Acies Edizioni Milano ISBN 9788890955167 Progetto grafico e realizzazione: Antonio Nacca Stampa: Nadir Media - Roma [email protected] In copertina: Giambologna, Mercurio volante, Museo del Bargello, Firenze con la testa di Medusa (Benvenuto Cellini, Perseo, Loggia dei Lanzi) (Creative Commons 3.0 Unported Rufus46, 2014; 2.5 Generic, Jastrow, 2005) (Wikimedia commons) 3 Indice Theorizing Economic Warfare, di Giuseppe della Torre pag. 7 Geoeconomia e guerra economica, del Gen. Carlo Jean “ 39 L’Arma economica in tempo di guerra Mercantilist warfare, by Thomas Victor Conti “ 59 Quand’erano i gesuiti a copiare i cinesi, di Andrea Molinari “ 75 La guerre de course. Guerre au commerce et commerce de guerre, par Roberto Barazzutti “ 89 La guerra delle bandiere. I corsari barbareschi nella guerra commerciale delle grandi potenze contro la concorrenza, di Antonino Teramo “ 107 «Vaincre la mer par la terre», 1793-1815. Guerra commerciale, guerra al commercio, guerra ai neutri, di Virgilio Ilari “ 125 «Civis Romanus sum». La protezione diplomatica degli investimenti stranieri, di Virgilio Ilari “ 155 «Anaconda Plan». Come vincere senza distruggere, di Gastone Breccia “ 171 Il debito d’Oriente. L’imperialismo finanziario e il default ottomano ed egiziano di fine Ottocento, di Giampaolo Conte “ 181 La rivalità economica anglo-americana, di Mariano Gabriele “ 193 La guerra al traffico «senza restrizioni» e il «concetto discriminatorio» di guerra economica, di Augusto De Toro “ 205 Gli effetti economici del blocco alleato (1914-1919), di Giovanni Punzo “ 219 «Dollar diplomacy» & «Banana wars». La fase emisferica dell’impero globale americano, di Matteo Giurco “ 233 Le sanzioni del 1935-36 contro l’Italia e l’autarchia, del Gen. Luciano Luciani (†) “ 247 4 Operazione Bernhardt, di Giovanni Punzo pag. 263 Il bombardamento strategico della Germania come guerra all’economia tedesca, di Gregory Alegi “ 269 La guerra economica in tempo di pace History of CoCom (1949-1993), by Marco Giulio Barone “ 291 CoCom e ChinCom. Nascita e declino del China Differential (1949-1957), di Rebecca Chemello “ 305 La CEE difronte all’offensiva economica sovietica (1955-1965), di Roberto Cantoni “ 317 L’embargo petrolifero del 1973. L’oro nero che divenne arma, l’arma che amplificò la sconfitta, di A. Roberta La Fortezza “ 331 Il blocco della Striscia di Gaza, di Marco Leofrigio “ 345 Al Zawahiri Economic War Against the West, by Laura Quadarella Sanfelice di Monteforte “ 353 Il «cluster» di guerra economica nel Comando ISAF in Afghanistan, del Gen. D. (ris.) Luigi Scollo “ 361 Economic Warfare Against Iran, by Germana Tappero Merlo “ 371 Le sanzioni alla Russia. Economic Cold War 2.0?, di Alessandro Vitale “ 387 Trading with Enemy. Il commercio cinoamericano da Nixon a Trump, di Paolo Balmas “ 399 Poteri e armi della guerra economica Economic Warfare Powers of the U. S. President, by Eric Terzuolo “ 417 After Cold War: the Multilateral Export Control Regime in the Second Nuclear era, by Emanuele Farruggia “ 429 I controlli sulle esportazioni di crittografia strategica, di Giangiuseppe Pili “ 441 5 Cyberspace & Financial War, di Luigi Martino pag. 449 La guerra economica sui mari. Blocco e dominio delle SLOCS, del C.A. Ezio Ferrante “ 457 Naval and Maritime Tools for Present Geo-economics and Economic Warfare, by Adm. Ferdinando Sanfelice di Monteforte “ 473 L’école de guerre économique di Parigi, di Giuseppe Gagliano “ 487 Economic Intelligence, di Simone Pasquazzi “ 499 Preclusive Purchasing, by Marco Giulio Barone “ 515 Scorched Earth, del Cap. CC Ferdinando Angeletti “ 531 Just US. L’extraterritorialità del diritto americano come arma economica, di Virgilio Ilari “ 541 Crono-bibliografia 1900-2017 (di Virgilio Ilari) I Offensive Economic Warfare (1900-1945) “ 557 Phase I – Imperialism (1900-1914) “ 559 Phase II – Great War (1914-1921) “ 566 Phase III – Interwar (1919-1939) “ 576 Phase IV – Second World War (1939-1945) “ 595 II The Economic Weapons of the Cold War (1945-1991) “ 615 Phase I – Containment (1945-1962) “ 618 Phase II – Détente (1963-1979) “ 637 Phase III – The Western Triumph (1979-1991) “ 651 III Global Economic and Financial War (1990-ongoing) “ 667 Phase I – Brave New World (Order) (1990-2001) “ 667 Phase II – The New American Century (2001-2010) “ 692 Phase III – The Rise of Eurasia (2011-2015) “ 725 Deux-mille-seize – The Populist Wave “ 753 Finta pietra tombale in memoria del rublo russo che si trova alla storica stazione di posta di Ruunavere, frazione di Pajaka, comune di Merjämaa (Estonia). La poesia di H. Puskar recita, in rima: «Lenin mete poues - ja ei olnud nea / parem oli taskus paavo- nurmi pea. / Homme saame krookid, aga mis meil neist, / oleks ainult rohkemhalle dollareid. / H. Puskar 19 VI 1992» («Riposa in pace Rublo russo. Avevamo Lenin nel taschino, non era bene. Era meglio avere in tasca la testa di Paavo Nurmi (*). Domani passiamo alla corona, ma non ce ne importa molto, avessimo soltanto più dollari»). (*) Allude alla banconota finlandese da 10 marchi che reca l’effigie del famoso maratoneta olimpionico Paavo Nurmi ‘The Flying Finn’ (1897-1973). Wikimedia commons (own work Ave Maria Mõistlik, permission) 7 Theorizing Economic Warfare di Giuseppe della Torre «We utilize theory to explain what is happening around us in the real world, for what use is theory if it cannot explain real world phenomena? The real world is messy, and the social relationships that comprise economics are complex and full of irregularities, but it is the responsibility of the economist to adapt their theory to encompass explanations for these phenomena, rather than only explore that which fits neatly into their preconceived notions of how the world works through flawed theory»1. Scienza economica, war economics, economic warfare a scienza economica si occupa della guerra sotto una molteplicità di aspetti. Da un lato come supporto alla politica (economia della difesa, prevenzione, preparazione e condotta economica e finan- Lziaria della guerra e delle campagne militari, mobilitazione ed economia di guerra, smobilitazione ed economia del post-conflitto, inclusa riconver- sione, ricostruzione, danni e riparazioni), dall’altro come studio dell’espe- rienza bellica sotto il profilo della storia e della scienza economica (cause economiche, impatto effetti e profitti della guerra, delle rivoluzioni tec- nologiche e delle spese per la difesa) e come elaborazione di particolari teorie economiche («pace liberale», «imperialismo», «pace cartaginese», «cicli di guerra»2). Il vasto complesso di questi studi – battezzato in modo più impressivo che rigoroso «war economics»3 – ha a sua volta prodotto importanti strumenti conoscitivi: basti pensare alla teoria keynesiana di 1 Gianna Christine Fenaroli, cit. infra, nt. 47. 2 Giuseppe Della Torre, «Kondratieff Waves and War Cycles», Quaderno Sism 2017 Future Wars, pp. 659-670. 3 Lord Frederick W. Pethick Lawrence (1871-1961), «War Economics», The Economic Journal, Vol. 25, No. 100, Dec. 1915, pp. 512-520. Alfred C. Neal (Ed.), Introduction to War Economics, by Brown University Economists, Chicago, Richard D. Irwin, 1942. 8 ECONOMIC WARFARE determinazione del reddito nazionale, al concetto e ai criteri di stima del capitale reale e del suo ammortamento, alle tabelle input-ouput, alla finan- za di guerra come forme di copertura dei disavanzi di bilancio e di gestione del debito pubblico e del debito assistenziale e previdenziale4. Meno noto è che interi settori delle scienze economiche siano derivati dalle esperienze degli economisti inglesi e americani, inclusi vari premi Nobel, che durante le guerre mondiali, e specialmente la seconda, hanno collaborato alla stessa pianificazione militare alleata. Svolgendo un ruolo talmente decisivo che un recente studio del Naval Institute di Annapolis li considera addirittura i veri artefici della vittoria5. Le consulenze econo- miche hanno riguardato ad esempio il bombardamento strategico delle in- frastrutture produttive e logistiche dell’Asse6, lo studio delle rotte ottimali e della formazione dei convogli marittimi e del naviglio militare, ecc. In questo contesto di attività, collegamenti con la teoria economica ci furono (es. la teoria delle interdipendenze produttive), ma l’aspetto più appari- scente fu quello dell’utilizzo di nuove tecniche di analisi: in particolare, la teoria dei giochi e la ricerca operativa7. Va sottolineato che la diretta collaborazione degli economisti alla vit- toria alleata non riguardò soltanto la «war economics», ma anche quella che nel diritto internazionale, nella prassi diplomatica e nella scienza mili- tare e navale già prima del 1914 era esplicitamente indicata come «guerra economica». Già nel 1931 la Gran Bretagna istituì una cellula segreta mi- litare per monitorare la ripresa economica tedesca8. Nella seconda guerra mondiale gli economisti britannici (in primo luogo la London School of Economics, il più importante centro mondiale di intelligence economica insieme all’apposita «Unit» dell’Economist) e americani furono chiamati infatti a individuare le infrastrutture produttive e logistiche vitali per lo sforzo bellico nemico, la cui distruzione fosse
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