Su Mmary Age and Ethnic Structure Clutha District
for all of Clutha. The graphs also also graphs The Clutha. of all for years 42 with compared years), 24 than less aged is population oriMa one is, (that years 24 the was population for ori Ma region’s age median the 2013 In of total. the per cent 9.5 for accounts which population, Clutha total ori Ma district’s the for and District the for structures age the compare 8 and 7 Figures structures group. ethnic by age markedly differ However per cent. 14.2 of average national the the of than older little a is population District Clutha the 2013, in years 65+ aged cent per 16.4 With Age and Ethnic Structure Ethnic Age and
Summary an t 85 at gain were minor also was There gains families. young of arrival net net 0 Minor and at experienced internal sources. both from international people lost and gained both groups age Clutha all 2013 and 2008 Between loss. 2008 migration net inter increase; been successive each natural over reduced has loss this has However from there been typically has decades few past the over growth district’s the of majority The mid by Countries Developed century. the end theof around globally and century More the growth across population of ending the of context the in understood be to little need trends a These 15,000. of below population 2061 a with decline further indicate projections term Longer 17,250. on just of population 2031 projected a with decades two next the over stabilise to likely is population The cent). ( 2013 in 17,350 to 1986 in 19,201 around from years, 27 past the over steadily less or more declined has District Clutha the of population The Economic Analysis,University of Waikato,Hamilton. RegionalImpacts Demographic of and Economic Change References: - - half of the local local the of half - esl period censal 2013, indicating a stabilising of the situation. the of stabilising a 2013, indicating
Jackson, N.O. and Pawar S. , (2013a).A Demographic Accounting Model for NewZealand. - 89 years. Net migration loss was was loss migration Net years. 89 - 9 and 25 and 9
1991
Source:ZealandNew NIDEA/Statistics (2014) Age Group and RegionalSex by Council Territorial AuthorityArea, 2006 and 2013 Figure8: AgeStructure: Clutha District at the key reproductive ages noted noted ages reproductive key the at loss the migration net and increasing longevity, to rates, birth due 2006 declining bars) since (unshaded structurally has population aged each how show at Figure 6. Figure 6. at Age
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 - -
5 0
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 96 2001 1996, 39 years, indicating the the indicating years, 39
85+
84 79 74 69 64 59 54 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 14
– –
9 4
8.0
Males
6.0
4.0 - 2006, and and 2006,
Percentage at each age each at Percentage
2.0
Maori -
9.6 per per 9.6 –
0.0
2013
2.0 -
2014. MBIE -
4.0 years younger than that of the total Clutha Clutha total the of that population. than 18 youthful is younger years 24 years very of age median a whose population contains as but elsewhere average, national the than older slightly is District Clutha the of population The Zealand. New total and Region Otago the both for those to similar very being Clutha for trends the increase, to years 65+ at those and decline, to projected are years 64 0 at numbers 2031, and 2011 Between remained have censuses. four past the over consistent remarkably patterns These Invercargill. Gore, and Otago, Central District, Southland Dunedin, and were leavers of District, destinations major Gore The Auckland. District, Southland Dunedin, those The were arrivals 2008. internal district’s on of the in of origins there main District living cent Clutha been had the night per census in living 67 Census as around enumerated 2013 the that from indicate data Stayer and Mover age. 15 at high characteristically
6.0
Females - funded project . National Instituteof Demographic and
8.0
(unshaded), 2013(shaded) Figure7: AgeStructure: Clutha 2006 AuthorityArea, 2006 and 2013 Source:ZealandNew NIDEA/Statistics (2014) Age Group and RegionalSex by Council Territorial Age whose medianage18 yearswhose is youthful very containsbutaselsewhere average, a thantheolder slightly nationalis thepopulationof Clutha The District younger 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 0 5 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 85+ 14 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 – – 4 4 9 8.0
Males 6.0 .
4.0 Nga Tangata Mairangi: Oho Māoripopulation - 19 and 20 and 19 Total Clutha Percentage at each ageeach at Percentage 2.0 0.0
2.0 - - 24 years of of years 24 24 and 40 and 24 4.0 Ma ori ori Ma 6.0 Females 8.0
- Components of Change Components the More Developed Countries by mid by Countries Developed the More across of growth ending the of context the in be understood to need These trends 15,000. below little of a 2061 population a with decline of resumption a indicate term projections Longer series). (low 15,350 low as as or series) 19,200 (high as high as range could numbers by 2031. However just of on 17,250 a population projectionsmedium indicating case Zealand New Statistics the with decades two next the over stabilise to is likely population ( 2013 in 17,350 to 1986 in 19,201 around years, from 27 past the over steadily less or more declined has District Clutha the of population The Natalie Jackson Natalie Clutha District: Population Size and Growth and Size Population District: Clutha
Source:Author/Statistics Zealand,New Subnational Population ProjectionsAge andby Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) and deaths) to decline and decline and to and deaths) births between difference (the increase natural now causing is ageing population elsewhere, As loss. migration net a experience district and 2010 but 2007 the all 2.); deaths (Figure and births betweenthe difference increase from natural contributions for strong not were it today smaller even been would have population Clutha’s T C I R T S I D A H T U L C Figure1: Population of Clutha District 1986 Number
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000 growth to slow. to growth - 11 years saw the the saw 11 years
0
1986 19,201 -
08 —
1991 Observed Figure2: Components of change: DistrictTaupo
Source:CompiledStatistics NewZealand, from Infoshare Number
-100
-200
-300
-400
200
100
- 1996
1992
MarchYears - - 1992-93 2001 century. the end of around the globally and century -
Natural Increase 2011 and 2011 projected to 2031
1993-94 S D N E R T C I H P A R G O M E D Y E K
1994-95
1995-96 2006
1996-97
June June Years
1997-98 2011 Projected -
1998-99 1). The ure (Fig 9.6 per cent)
1999-2000 Estimated MigrationNet
High (+8%) High Medium (-2%) Medium Low (12%) Low 2000-01 Observed Clutha Clutha District 2016
2001-02
2002-03
2021 2003-04
2004-05
2005-06 2026 No.5 NIDEA Demographic Snapshot 2006-07
2007-08 Net Change
15,350
19,200 2008-09 2031 17,250
2009-10
2010-11 District, June 2014Clutha
2011-12
2012-13 Inside Inside this issue: Summary Structure Ethnicand Age Ageing Population Stayersand Movers Northland’s Age byChange Componentsof Flow Component byChange Componentsof
(Online) ISSN2382 (Print) ISSN2382 [email protected] E 07838 4040 Phone: NewZealand Hamilton3240, PrivateBag 3105 University of Waikato Sciences, Faculty of &Arts Social (NIDEA) EconomicAnalysis Demographicand NationalInstitute of - mail:
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4 4 3 3 2 2
NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 5 P a g e 2 P a g e 3 NIDEA DemographicCLUTHA SnapshotDISTRICT -No. K E Y5 Clutha District, June 2014 CluthaDEMOGRAPHIC District, June TRENDS 2014
Components of Change by Component Flow Clutha’s Movers and Stayers
Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’ a ‘known’ (net internal and net permanent and long-term Data from the 2013 Census indicate that around 67 per from these data, as are ‘other contributors to change’ on (Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of Clutha’s international [PLT]) migration loss of around 334 persons, cent of those enumerated as living in the Clutha District on the arrivals map. population change can be broken down into their along with a further net loss of 108 persons, being the census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between 2008 and difference between the ‘known’ migration component and 2008. The single-largest group of arrivals (6.6 per cent) The patterns have been remarkably consistent over the 2013, Clutha’s population experienced zero net change the overall net migration loss. Drilling down, the net had not been born in 2008, while those who were ‘not past four censuses, with the exception of Queenstown- (this represents an improvement over the net losses of known migration loss was comprised of a net internal loss elsewhere included’ or ‘living elsewhere in New Zealand Lakes, which played a more prominent role as a 850 and 350 experienced respectively across the 1991- of 249 accompanied by a net PLT loss of 85. Underlying but not further defined’ accounted for 5.0 and 4.9 per cent destination of leavers across the 1991-1996, 1996-2001, 1996 and 2001-2006 periods). Underlying the 2008-2013 these flows again were internal arrivals (+2,340) and respectively. Dunedin accounted for the next largest group and 2001-2006 periods, and Auckland, which was also a situation, the district experienced a natural increase of internal departures (-2,589), and international PLT of arrivals at 3.9 per cent, followed by ‘overseas in 2008’ prominent destination for leavers across the 2001-2006 442 persons, fully offset by an estimated net migration loss arrivals (+609) and international PLT departures (-694). (2.8 per cent), Southland District (1.3 per cent), Gore (1.0 period. of the same number. The natural increase component was The overall picture indicates migration is stabilising, by per cent), then Auckland (0.9 per in turn comprised of 1,084 births partially offset by 642 comparison with past trends. Data for the 1996-2001 and cent). Figure 5: Clutha’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013 deaths. The estimated net migration loss was comprised of 2001-2006 periods are available on request. The single-largest group of those Figure 3: Components flows - Clutha District 2008-2013 who had been living in the Clutha District in 2008 but were living NET CHANGE in Estimated Population Start 17,350 17,350 End (ERP2008 - ERP2013) elsewhere at the 2013 Census were +00 +0.0% found to be living in the Dunedin (6.6 per cent) followed by
NATURAL INCREASE ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION Southland District, Central Otago, (Births - Deaths) + Gore, and Invercargill (respectively +442 … -442 … accounting for 1.3, 1.3, 1.2 and 1.1 per cent of leavers). It should be
NET KNOWN MIGRATION Residual Component of Migration noted that people overseas at the Births Deaths - + (Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration) Estimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration) time of the census cannot be 1,084 … 642 … -334 … -108 … enumerated and are thus ‘missing’
Dunedin typically accounts for Net Internal Migration Net PLT Migration Clutha’s largest gains and losses -249 … + -85 … of internal migrants. Southland, Gore, Auckland, Central Otago
Internal In-migrants Internal Out-migrants PLT Arrivals PLT Departures and Invercargill also feature
+2,340 … -2,589 … +609 … -694 … prominently.
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
Components of Change by Age Population Ageing Figure 4: Component flows by age - Clutha District 2008-2013 Figure 4 shows that between 2008 As elsewhere, declining birth rates, and 2013, all Clutha age groups Expected 2013 Population Expected Deaths Internal In-Migrants Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group increasing longevity, and—in gained and lost people from both Internal Out-Migrants PLT Arrivals PLT Departures Clutha’s case—net migration loss, internal and international (PLT) Actual 2013 Population 120.0 0-14 years are causing the population to age sources. Minor net gains were 2,000 100.0 structurally. Between 2011 and experienced at 0-9 and 25-39 years, 15-24 years 1,500 80.0 2031, numbers at 0-14, 15-24, 40-
indicating the net arrival of young 2031 25-39 years - 54 and 55-64 years are projected to 60.0 families. There was also a minor gain 1,000 40-54 years decline, and those at all ages 65+ at 85-89 years (not shown on the 40.0 Number years to increase. Fig ure 6 shows graph). Net migration loss was 500 20.0 55-64 years characteristically high at 15-19 and Births that the trends for Clutha are not -
20-24 years of age. 0.0 65-74 years that different from those for either Percentage Change, 2011 -500 -20.0 the Otago Region or total New 75-84 years Between 2008 and 2013, Clutha Zealand. Clutha can expect to have -40.0 -1,000 experienced a modest net migra- Clutha District Otago REGION New Zealand 85+ years 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ more elderly than children by 2021, tion gain of young families. Age Group Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) the same as Otago, but five years Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources earlier than for total New Zealand.