Introduction establishing an inclusive democracy. Its fragility By Mark Lattimer and Derek Verbakel was demonstrated by a prolonged ISIS assault on Kobane in autumn 2014 that emptied the city The 2015 release of the Peoples under Threat and surrounding countryside of its inhabitants, index marks the 10th year that Peoples under until it was retaken by Kurdish and opposition Threat has sought to identify those communities forces in January 2015. around the world that are most at risk of geno- Iraq headed the table when the Peoples under cide, mass political killing or systematic violent Th reat index was fi rst published in 2006 and it repression. has never been far from the top of the index in A number of the countries which rose most the intervening years, despite earnest protesta- sharply in the index last year, including Syria, tions from the Iraqi government and its inter- Yemen and Ukraine, saw escalating violence over national partners that the security situation was the course of 2014–15 and the killing, in total, of coming under control. An increase in killings in tens of thousands of civilians. 2013 was followed by a catastrophic upsurge in This year again the publication uses current violence over the last year, with the advance of indicators from authoritative sources to highlight ISIS fi rst into Anbar in western Iraq and then where the risks are highest and where they have across Ninewa in the north. Over 14,000 civilians risen most significantly over the last year. It also were killed in 2014, many of them in massacres provides an opportunity to review risk factors perpetrated by ISIS as it expelled minority com- over the last decade and the predictive power of munities, including Chaldo-Assyrians, Shabak, the index itself. Turkmen and Yezidis, from Mosul, Sinjar and the Ninewa plain. Th ousands of Yezidi women and Rising threats girls remain in ISIS captivity. Th e risk remains acute not just for minority groups and for Shi’a The list of major risers in the Peoples under communities threatened by ISIS, but also for Sun- Threat index in 2015 features countries from nis at risk of retaliation from Iraqi Security Forces every major world region except the Americas. and allied Shi’a militias seeking to recapture Four out of ten are from the Arab world. Most of territory. Peoples under the civilian killing in the region is currently per- Confl ict in the Central African Republic (CAR) petrated by governments or government-backed continued between the largely Muslim former forces, but the threat levels have also increased Séléka rebels and anti-balaka militias comprised Threat 2015 with the expansion of attacks attributed to the mainly of Christians. In the aftermath of the opposition extremist group Da’ash or the Islamic January ouster of the ex-Séléka from Bangui, the State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), including country’s new interim government and Afri- w attacks in Lebanon, Yemen, Egypt and Libya. can Union, European Union (EU) and United With over 200,000 people now dead in the Nations (UN) peacekeepers failed to quell the confl ict and up to half of the population forced violence. While both sides have been accused of from their homes, the crisis in Syria continues committing mass atrocities against civilians and to worsen. Th e situation has become highly frac- reprisal attacks have been widespread, in the wake tured, with the military involvement of neigh- of an ex-Séléka withdrawal to the north and east bouring states, foreign armed groups including of the country, members of the Muslim minor- ISIS and Lebanese Hezbollah, and US-led air ity – regarded as Séléka sympathizers by virtue of strikes. Th e extreme sectarianism which character- their religion and language – have faced a violent izes ISIS and related jihadi groups, as well as the campaign by Christian militias to extirpate them pro-government Shabiha militias, has now infect- from the CAR. Upwards of 850,000 people ed much of the country. Nearly all the remaining – nearly one-fi fth of the country’s population – Christian communities in Syria live in enclaves were refugees or internally displaced at the end of in government-held areas. Only in the Kurdish- 2014, and many tens of thousands more fl ed their held regions of the north in al-Jazeera, Kobane homes in the fi rst months of 2015. With fi ghters www.peoplesunderthreat.org and Afrin has there been a serious attempt at on the ground still out of control, and without Peoples under Threat 2015Briefing 2 separatists in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino- 2005. It was symptomatic of a wider failure by Major Risers since 2014 Balkaria and, particularly, Dagestan. the international community over Sudan, where While the rising threat level in Russia has left hundreds of thousands of civilians have been Rank Rise in rank Country Groups Total minorities there living in fear, Russia’s proxy killed since 2003 in campaigns of repression by since 2014 war with Ukraine has seen whole communities government-backed forces against insurgencies in in Donbas and other areas of eastern Ukraine Darfur and, more recently, in South Kordofan 1 +2 Syria Political targets, Shi’a/Alawis, Christians, Kurds, sheltering in their basements or pushed from their and Blue Nile states. Government forces repeat- Palestinians 24.95 homes. Some 2 million Ukrainians have now been edly targeted civilians over the last year, including 4 +1 Afghanistan Hazara, Pashtun, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmen, Baluchis, displaced within the east or have fl ed to Russia, bombing hospitals and schools, leaving thou- Kuchis 20.50 Belarus or Poland. Even in the heart of Europe, sands dead. The re-election of President Omar 5 +1 Iraq Shi’a, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmen, Christians, Mandaeans, objective monitoring of the situation of popula- al-Bashir in April 2015 signalled a policy of no Yezidis, Shabak, Faili Kurds, Bahá’ís, Palestinians 19.90 tions on the ground has been submerged by waves change. He won 94 per cent of the vote in an 9 +3 South Sudan Murle, Nuer, Dinka, Anuak, Jie, Kachipo 18.37 of allegation and counter-claim issued by the dif- election boycotted by the main opposition parties 10 +4 Central African Muslims, Christians; Kaba (Sara), Mboum, Mbororo, ferent parties to the confl ict. In Russian-annexed and widely criticized as unfair. Republic Gula, Aka 18.35 Crimea, the voices of human rights activists have In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a 16 +3 Russian Federation Chechens, Ingush and others in North Caucasus; been suppressed, including a prominent activ- series of rapidly mutating conflicts involving indigenous northern peoples, Roma, Jews 14.82 ist from the minority Tatars, who was prevented local Mayi-Mayi militias, Ugandan and Rwandan 17 +8 Libya Black Libyans, Sub-Saharan migrants, Tebu, Berbers 14.78 from testifying to the UN and the OSCE when rebels, and Katangan separatists, continued to 20 +3 Egypt Copts, Shi’a, Bahá’í; Nubians, Bedouin 13.76 he was attacked on the street and his documents claim hundreds of lives, even as limited progress 21 +39 Ukraine Tatars, Krymchak and Karaites in Crimea; Russians, stolen in September. was made in the demobilization of fighters of Hungarians, Moldovans and other national minorities 13.70 the former M23 rebellion. The UN mission 29 +15 China Tibetans, Uyghurs, Mongols, Hui, religious minorities 12.21 Peoples at greatest risk MONUSCO continues to undertake operations in support of Congolese armed forces who them- the backing of the transitional government, the the rise in risk in two of the world’s major powers: Although Peoples under Threat is designed to selves have repeatedly been accused of commit- UN, or France, a controversial peace agreement China and Russia. assess the risk or threat of future events, in those ting atrocities. was signed in April 2015 between ex-Séléka and In China, there was a severe escalation in the states that occupy the very top of the table, mass The contested outcome of the presidential anti-balaka leaders in Nairobi. tactics used by Uyghur militants seeking indepen- killing is already under way. election in Afghanistan in 2014 brought a Egypt rose another three places in the index dence in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Re- Ongoing armed conflict involving the extrem- period of worrying uncertainty and fears over this year. Former army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi gion. Public train stations as well as police stations ist group al-Shabaab continues to secure the place ethnic politics, so it was with some relief in the became president in May 2014, leading to a further were targeted in attacks, including suicide bomb- of Somalia near the top of the Peoples under international community that defeated candidate crackdown on opposition groups and human rights ings, both in Urumqi and also outside Xinjiang Threat table. Due to advances by the Somali Abdullah Abdullah was appointed ‘chief executive activists. Hundreds of sentences of death, or life in Hunan, Yunnan and Guangdong. Hundreds National Army and the African Union mission officer’ in President Ashraf Ghani’s new national imprisonment, were imposed on members of the of people were killed, many others detained in AMISOM, throughout 2014 al-Shabaab lost unity government in September. Civilian casual- banned Muslim Brotherhood. While under pres- mass arrests and dozens of death sentences handed much of the territory previously under its con- ties reached record levels in 2014, rising 22 per sure from escalating military operations, Islamist down. Little was done, however, to address the trol. Still, particularly in South-Central Somalia, cent overall compared with the previous year militants based in North Sinai enlarged the scope legacy of under-development and exclusion of al-Shabaab persisted in launching numerous and including nearly 3,700 deaths, according to and scale of their attacks against security personnel Uyghur communities that lies behind the unrest, deadly assaults on AMISOM and Somali forces, the UN mission.