Growing Apart
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Growing Apart Growing Apart Oil, Politics, and Economic Change in Indonesia and Nigeria peter m. lewis the university of michigan press Ann Arbor Copyright © by the University of Michigan 2007 All rights reserved Published in the United States of America by The University of Michigan Press Manufactured in the United States of America c Printed on acid-free paper 2010 2009 2008 2007 4321 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher. A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lewis, Peter, 1957– Growing apart : oil, politics, and economic change in Indonesia and Nigeria / Peter M. Lewis. p. cm. — (Interests, identities, and institutions in comparative politics) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-472-09980-1 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-472-09980-9 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-13: 978-0-472-06980-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-472-06980-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Indonesia—Economic conditions—1945– . 2. Nigeria— Economic conditions—1970– . 3. Indonesia—Economic policy. 4. Nigeria—Economic policy. I. Title. HC447.L47 2007 330.9598—dc22 2006025449 For Tamara Contents Acknowledgments ix Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Chapter 2. The Political Economy of Development 28 Chapter 3. Growing Apart Divergent Political Economies 54 Chapter 4. Indonesia Crisis, Reform, and Growth 86 Chapter 5. Nigeria Division, Distribution, and Decline 125 Chapter 6. Comparing Economic Performance 180 Chapter 7. After the Fall The Dynamics of Attempted Reform in Indonesia 203 Chapter 8. Predatory Rule, Transition, and Malaise in Nigeria 238 Chapter 9. Conclusion Indonesia and Nigeria in Comparative Perspective 268 Bibliography 297 Index 327 Acknowledgments This has been a long project, spanning several continents, and I have nat- urally incurred a great many debts, personal and professional. Much of the initial research and conceptualization was concluded during a year as a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. At Stanford, I especially appreciated the collegiality and interest of David Abernethy, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Larry Diamond, Thráinn Eggerts- son, Terry Karl, Richard Roberts, Hilton Root, and Barry Weingast. Thomas Henriksen and Wendy Minkin made the program as rewarding and pleasant as one could have hoped for. The bulk of the writing was subsequently completed as a Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Bob Hathaway was a generous host in the Asia Program, and Lee Hamilton a remarkably con- genial and engaging presence in leading the institution. Special thanks go to Arlyn Charles, Lindsay Collins, and Rosemary Lyon for creating a sup- portive, productive, and enjoyable setting for scholarship. Large portions of the draft manuscript were read and perceptively cri- tiqued by Deborah Brautigam, Pierre Englebert, John Heilbrunn, and Nic Van de Walle. They have been good friends and valued colleagues, for which I am very thankful. Two anonymous reviewers for the University of Michigan Press also provided incisive comments that have signi‹cantly improved the book. Any remaining ›aws are obviously mine to claim. Various pieces of this study have been presented at Stanford, the Uni- versity of California, Berkeley, the University of Ibadan, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, American University, and several profes- sional meetings. I particularly bene‹ted from comments by Robert Aten, Robert Bates, Charles Cadwell, Evan Lieberman, Bob Price, Michael Ross, and Ben Ross Schneider. A number of mentors and friends also deserve thanks. Nancy Bermeo, Henry Bienen, Atul Kohli, and John Waterbury were inspiring teachers. Glenn Adler, Eva Bellin, Cathy Boone, Tom Callaghy, Gyimah Boadi, Mike Bratton, Lou Goodman, Jon x Acknowledgments Kraus, Carl Levan, Lynne Rienner, Don Rothchild, Howard Stein, Steve Stedman, and Carol Wise and have been great friends and colleagues. A special set of thanks must go to the Indonesian and Nigerian ma‹as, those groups of collaborators that illuminate these large and often impossibly complex places. The help and advice of various Indonesia spe- cialists have been much appreciated. Don Emmerson, Bill Liddle, Ross McLeod, and Jeff Winters have been particularly generous with their insights and time. Andrew MacIntyre offered invaluable early counsel on ‹eldwork in Indonesia, and as we have followed parallel intellectual paths, my debt to his work is evident. I have also bene‹ted from extended discus- sions with Harold Crouch, Robert Hefner, Suzaina Kadir, Jamie Mackie, and Adam Schwarz. In Washington, Edward Masters has been tremen- dously helpful. If they judge that I have gotten the story even half right, I should be satis‹ed. In Indonesia, thanks must ‹rst go to Dr. Hadi Soesastro, who has hosted me at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and has offered keen insights and invaluable assistance. Clara Joewono and Mari Pangestu have been equally generous and intellectually engaging. Mohammed Sadli was a witty and energetic discussant. Radius Prawiro, Emil Salim, and Ali Wardhana were also forthcoming and helpful to a newcomer, and their graciousness is acknowledged. Kwik Kian Gie, Miranda Goeltom, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, and Thee Kian Wie fur- nished essential analysis of the nature of the economy and problems of reform. Faisal Basri and Sri Mulyani Indrawati offered needed perspective during a turbulent period of transition. I also bene‹ted greatly from con- versations with James Castle, Andrew Ellis, Paul Deuster, Ben Fisher, Dennis Heffernan, Blair King, Douglas Ramage, Joseph Stern, David Timberman, and James Van Zorge. Eric Bjornlund and his family brie›y adopted me and helped wend my way through the byways of Jakarta. I have found a personal and professional home mainly among the Nigeria crew, and I must give all due recognition. Henry Bienen, Tom Biersteker, Larry Diamond, Richard Joseph, Paul Lubeck, Mike Watts, and Ernie Wilson provided enthusiastic support for my entry into the daunting enterprise of studying Nigeria, and they have remained friends and collaborators. Pauline Baker, Tony Carroll, Peter Ekeh, Tom Forrest, Darren Kew, Princeton Lyman, Steve Morrison, Ebere Onwudiwe, John Paden, Pearl Robinson, Barnett Rubin, Richard Sklar, Patrick Ukata, and Crawford Young have been welcome colleagues in this continuing enterprise. In Nigeria, the list is long. My good friends and guides include Ken- neth Adeyemi, Ukaha Amogu, Judy Asuni, Tunde and Kemi Durosinmi- Acknowledgments xi Etti, Lukman Durosinmi-Etti, Uma Eleazu, the late Emeka Ezera, Nnamdi Ezera, Kayode Fayemi, Udy Kalu, Ojo Maduekwe, Ugo Okarafor, Femi Segun, and Pat Utomi. Early support and assistance came from Tade Akin Aina, Philip Asiodu, Alaba Ogunsanwo, and Oyeleye Oyediran. I have bene‹ted greatly from the views of Said Adejumobi, L. O. Adekunle, Olisa Agbakoba, Olu Ajakaiye, the late Claude Ake, Alli- son Ayida, Seyi Bickersteth, Usman Bugaje, Innocent Chukwuma, Pascal Dozie, Wale Edun, Emma Ezeazu, Obi Ezekwesili, Olu Falae, Rasheed Gbadamosi, Jibrin Ibrahim, Attahiru Jega, Kalu Idika Kalu, Dimieari von Kemedi, Abiodun Kolawale, Dick Kramer, O. A. Kuye, A. B. Mah- moud, Arthur Mbanefo, Clement Nwankwo, Ayo Obe, Femi Ojudu, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Festus Okoye, Akin Olanaiyan, Adekunle Olu- mide, Abdul Oroh, Adeto Peterside, Nasir el-Rufai, Ernest Shonekan, Rotimi Suberu, Bola Tinubu, and Ishola Williams. A squad of invaluable research assistants have helped at various stages of the project. Many thanks go to Nida Al-Ahmad, Victor Brobbey, Michael Gonzales, Heidi McGowan, Mvuselelo Ngcoya, David Plotz, and Kevin Warr, with a special appreciation for Bea Reaud, who saw the man- uscript to completion. Friends and family have been the deepest source of encouragement and support. Arthur Allen, Margaret Talbot, Steve Tucker, and Eileen St. George are great friends who have shared the rigors of writing and travel. My parents, Robert and Barbara Lewis, and my brother Jim have lived with various writing projects for nearly as long as they shared a house with me. My children, Daniel and Claire, have put up with absences and dis- traction, while providing a constant source of happiness. And for Tamara, who has been patient, supportive, and compelling in every way, I give my love and gratitude..