LISA and NASA's Physics of the Cosmos Theme
LISA and NASA’s Physics of the Cosmos Theme
Robin Stebbins U.S. LISA Project Scientist Goddard Space Flight Center Seventh International LISA Symposium, Barcelona 16 June 2008 Disclaimer
. Dr. Michael Salamon, the LISA Program Scientist, is unable to be here. . This presentation does not represent the official perspective or policies of NASA Headquarters. . I’m only a representative of the Project, not the agency leadership. . This talk will describe the recent programmatic work of the NASA part of the LISA Project.
2 Outline
. What has the NASA part of the Project been doing in the last year?
– Formulation – Technology development – “Science development” – The Beyond Einstein Program Assessment Review – Cost estimation – New cost estimates – Exploration of roles and responsibilities – Exploration of cost vs. science – Program rearrangement: Beyond Einstein to Physics of the Cosmos theme . What does the NASA part of the Project expect to be doing in the next year?
– Formulation – Technology development – “Science development” – Astro2010
3 BEPAC - The Overview
. NASA and DoE requested that the National Research Council (NRC) assessment of the Beyond Einstein Program, and a recommendation for which mission would be developed and launched first. Assessed on the basis of:
– Potential scientific impact within the context of other existing and planned space-based and ground-based missions – Realism of preliminary technology and management plans, and cost estimates. . Missions in the Beyond Einstein Program
– Beyond Einstein Great Observatories: LISA and Constellation-X – Einstein probes: Joint Dark Energy Mission, Black Hole Finder Probe, Inflation Probe . The Beyond Einstein Program Assessment Committee (BEPAC) released their report in September 2007.
4 BEPAC - The Project Response
. The LISA Project, particularly the NASA team, expended ~8 months of effort responding to the BEPAC. . The response included:
– 3 BEPAC meetings with two major presentations
– 4 Town Hall meetings
– 211 pages answering 71 questions
– 8 major documents totaling 656 pages – Science Case (http://www.lisa-science.org) – (Draft) Science Requirements Document (version 4.1) – Mission Architecture Overview – Technology development status – Requirements Flow-down – Data analysis – Management Plan – Cost Work done by the entire Project Team and many, many members of the LISA community.
5 BEPAC - The Result
. On purely scientific grounds, LISA is the mission that is most promising and least scientifically risky. … Thus, the committee gave LISA its highest scientific ranking. . Finding 3. Two mission areas stand out for the directness with which they address Beyond Einstein goals and their potential for broader scientific impact: LISA and JDEM. . Finding 4. LISA is an extraordinarily original and technically bold mission concept that will open up an entirely new way of observing the universe, with immense potential to enlarge the understanding of physics and astronomy in unforeseen ways. LISA, in the committee’s view, should be the flagship mission of a long-term program addressing Beyond Einstein goals. . Finding 5. The ESA-NASA LISA Pathfinder mission that is scheduled for launch in late 2009 will assess the operation of several critical LISA technologies in space. The committee believes that it is more responsible technically and financially to propose a LISA new start after the Pathfinder results are taken into account. … . Recommendation 1. NASA and DOE should proceed immediately with a competition to select a Joint Dark Energy Mission for a 2009 new start. … . Recommendation 2. NASA should invest additional Beyond Einstein funds in LISA technology development and risk reduction to help ensure that the agency is in a position to proceed in partnership with ESA to a new start after the LISA Pathfinder results are understood.
6 Cost Estimation - New Cost Estimates
. Cost is a critical concern in the NASA Astrophysics Program. . To better understand the relationship between cost and performance, the Project initiated a “bottoms-up” costing.
– All previous NASA estimates were from “parametric models” which rely on the cost experience of prior missions with similar mass, complexity and attitude performance. – Parametric cost estimates are not very reliable for assessing small design changes. . October-November 2007: Bottoms-up cost estimates were generated by the NASA Project team. . January 2008: Bottoms-up cost estimate was generated by Goddard’s Mission Design Lab. . February 2008: The new cost was comparable to previous estimates: ~$1B for the NASA share, assuming a 650 M€ for the ESA share.
7 Cost Estimation - Roles and Responsibilities
. In September 2007, NASA and ESA Headquarters directed the Project to determine if there is an allocation of roles and responsibilities for which the baseline mission would cost no more than
– A NASA cost target of $600M (RY, 2018 launch)
– An ESA budget of 650M€ (Cosmic Vision L1) . February 2008: The Project responded that for any allocation the cost target could not be met with the baseline mission for less than
– A NASA cost of ~$1B
– An ESA budget of 650M€
8 Cost Estimation - Reduced Mission Concepts
. February 2008: NASA Division of Astrophysics requested that the Project quantify cost savings that might be made available by reductions in science performance. . To evaluate cost savings as a function of science performance, two reduced mission concepts were formulated. . Members of LIST Working Group 1a evaluated the science consequences. . March 2008: Goddard’s Mission Design Lab examined possible cost reductions through a revised bottoms-up cost estimate. . April 2008: The NASA part of the Project reported that only modest savings can be obtained with significant reductions in science. The NASA cost would be reduced ~10% for a greater than 50% reduction in science.
9 Physics of the Cosmos
. The missions of NASA’s Astrophysics Division have been re- organized. . The old Beyond Einstein Program included:
- LISA - Joint Dark Energy Mission - Constellation-X - Black Hole Finder Probe - Inflation Probe . The new Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) Program includes:
- Chandra (23 Jul. 1999) - Joint Dark Energy Mission - XMM-Newton (10 Dec. 1999) - LISA - Integral (17 Oct. 2002) - Constellation-X - GLAST (11 Jun. 2008) - Herschel (31 Oct. 2008) - Planck (31 Oct. 2008)
10 Astro2010
. The U.S. decadal review process, known as Astro2010, has begun. . Every ten years, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences contracts with federal agencies (i.e. NASA, NSF and DoE) to review and prioritize projects in astronomy and astrophysics, in space and on the ground. . The review consists of:
– Chair, or Co-Chairs – Decadal Committee (~15 members) – 9 panels (~12 members) – NRC staff . The evaluation criteria will likely involve: science, cost, technical readiness/maturity, and programmatic readiness. . Schedule:
– Staffing and organizational meetings are likely to continue through the end of 2008. – Presentation and analysis of concepts throughout 2009. – Public release sometime in 2010. Publication in 2011. . LISA’s success in this review is critical to moving forward in the US.
11 The End
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