NYC-CMT10701-003 MENA Market

Communications, Media & Technology

POINT OF VIEW JANUARY 2013

PEOPLE-METERS CLOSING THE GAP IN THE MENA TV MARKET

AUTHORS John Turner, Partner Jeff Youssef, Associate Partner Gabriele Omassi, Senior Associate EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

With a population almost comparable to the United States and an economic size in the same order of magnitude as Germany, the Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA region) should constitute an attractive region for investment in television advertising. But analysis by Oliver Wyman reveals a significant gap between what should be the investment level by advertisers and production houses and the actual level. In fact, when compared against benchmarks with peer regions, MENA falls far short of its potential. The less than US$2 BN overall advertiser spend in the region puts the MENA TV ad market at 30% of the “fair” estimates, considering the regional GDP. This shortfall puts serious constraints on the economics of the market players, given that less than 10% of all MENA broadcasters capture about 80% of the advertising spend; more than 500 FTA pan-Arab channels share the remaining 20%.

The MENA TV market suffers because advertisers and networks cannot manage what they cannot measure. Without reliable audience measurement systems that track and report viewership on each registered channel on a minute-by-minute basis, market players cannot identify and reward the quality and creativity of content production and realize the economic opportunities offered by network advertising. In advanced TV markets, systems like People-meters have sparked a flourishing business, focusing attention and providing actionable metrics.

The introduction of systems like People-meters to the MENA region to date has been largely unsuccessful, particularly in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt, the countries that make up the bulk of the MENA ad TV market. Multiple attempts by private entities have failed – until governments decided to intervene, as they did in the UAE and in Saudi Arabia.

Oliver Wyman analysis of data drawn from the People-meter system recently introduced in the UAE (tview) indicates that ad spend allocation, program selection, and content creation decisions driven by real metrics could enable a paradigm shift in the TV industry in the MENA region.

This shift would see an increase of the TV ad market size through the renewed interest of international investors in a professionalized MENA TV market and an increased allocation of the advertisers’ budget on TV instead of other ad channels, such as print.

This shift will need to take place on several dimensions. The way audience measurement is perceived and applied will need to change, as will the people skills (development and training) needed to implement and incorporate the data into decision making processes. In addition to the mind-set shift, the introduction of People-meters in the MENA region will require a skillset change, an analytical approach to data research, and a radical change in how advertising is sold.

More than The MENA region constitutes an attractive market for international investors. The Arabic speaking 70% of MENA countries from North Africa to the Persian Gulf that make up this region have a population TV advertising of about 300 million, just below that of the United States of America and almost the same spending comes economic size as Germany. from just a few countries: Most of the spending power is concentrated in just a few countries, distinguished by Saudi Arabia, population size (Egypt), GDP per capita (i.e. GCC countries such as Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt and Kuwait), or both (Saudi Arabia). As a result, more than 70% of the MENA TV advertising spend comes from only three major economies: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt.

The Free-to-Air (FTA) pan-Arab satellite is the most popular TV delivery mode in the region, reaching more than 90% of the households from the Maghreb to the Mashriq.

The total TV advertisers’ spend in the MENA region is only US$1.9 BN, with more than 80% of that spend concentrated on the pan-Arab satellite broadcasters.

Exhibit 1: POPULATION VS. SPENDING POWER IN MENA

GDP US$, PPP/CAPITA 110,000 Qatar

90,000

70,000

Largest economy 50,000 UAE

Largest Kuwait population Maghreb 30,000 KSA Mashriq 10,000 Egypt Egypt 0

-10,000 Gulf countries -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 POPULATION MILLIONS

Source: IMF; 2011 estimates; GDP/capita in PPP figures. Yemen is included among the GCC countries.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 3 On the From this figure, we estimate that the Exhibit 2: REVENUE CONCENTRATION broadcasters’ pan-Arab satellite broadcasters earn AMONG MENA CHANNEL GROUPS IN 2011 side, the revenues of about US$0.7 BN. 80% of the 100% revenue pool is pan-Arab satellite broadcasters’ revenues concentrated are concentrated among a few large media among a few groups – most of which are government 80% large, mostly controlled (Abu Dhabi Media, Al Jazeera, government Dubai Media, STV) but some are private 60% controlled, (MBC and Rotana). media groups If the quest for increased revenue represents 40% an ongoing challenge for these major groups, the economics of the more than 20% 500 minor content owners sharing the remaining 20% of the broadcaster 0% market are even more precipitous. As a Channels Revenues (525) (US $650-720 MM) consequence, government and private individuals are forced to massively fund Source: Zenith Optimedia, primary research interviews, Oliver Wyman analysis. loss-making media companies.

Viewed against comparable regions (in terms of GDP) in developed and emerging markets, the MENA TV ad market is roughly 30% of its “fair size.” Broadcasters normally gauge the degree of development and potential of a certain region by comparing the ratio of TV ad spend over regional GDP with one of the Western TV ad markets. The MENA region is almost 3.5 times lower than that benchmark.

Advertisers, by contrast, traditionally compare the amount of TV advertising spend over the regional GDP to the one of Asian Pacific countries. Here, too, the MENA region is lower – by more than 2.5 times. No matter which metric is used, then, the MENA ad market falls short of its potential.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 4 From both the Why does this gap exist? We have identified a number of causes: broadcaster •• The absence of a reliable audience measurement system impedes players from getting a and advertiser granular and clear view on the performance of the broadcasted content. perspective, the •• The lack of spot beam technology means advertisers cannot target different countries Middle East market with differentiated content and ad spots. A one-size-fits-all approach to a Pan-Arab is under-valued footprint limits advertising in certain sectors (e.g. retail), since local advertising through other channels is more interesting for localized business sectors. •• Regulation/censorship restricts key advertising categories (e.g. alcohol) that constitute a considerable share in other markets. •• Some broadcasters do not have commercial goals as a main mandate in their vision and mission.

Exhibit 3: TV ADVERTISER SPEND AS % OF REGIONAL GDP, 2011

Estimated TV ad spend ($BN): $1.9 $27.4 $94.6 0.3%

0.2% 3.4 X 2.6 X

0.1%

0% MENA Asia Pacific Western markets (Advertisers’ preferred (Broadcasters’preferred benchmark) benchmark)

Source: Zenith Optimedia; interviews, Oliver Wyman analysis. Asia Pacific includes: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. Western markets include: North American and Western Europe.

The primary and most addressable cause for this advertising gap is the lack of a reliable TV audience measurement system. Current practice in the region falls well behind best practice and produces data that is, at best, not useful to make the kinds of strategic decisions necessary. Drawing on best practice in other markets, getting the right data, and understanding the data to make better choices would result in more efficient and effective programming and advertising spend decisions.

In mature advertising markets, reliable, granular, and almost real-time one-minute ratings captured through automatic TV Audience Measurement (TAM) systems allow broadcasters and other content owners to measure the success of their content production and packaging. They offer an indication of the successful content monetization to MBUs, ad representatives, and advertisers.

In the MENA TV ad market, however, the dominant rating system is still based on the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) methodology, with market research companies conducting phone surveys on audience samples and asking interviewees to recall if and what they were watching in a certain 15-minute time slot from the previous day.

A comparison of People-meters and CATI highlights the shortcomings of current tracking: •• People-meters are electronic systems with no reliance on human memory or recall from the viewer. •• Sample of viewers is maintained throughout the year, resulting in a reduction in sampling variation and improvement in reliability of viewing estimates. •• Viewership can be tracked in one-minute segments (as against 15- minutes in a CATI system). •• Commercials in an ad break get an individual rating, and commercials within each break achieve different ratings – enabling comprehensive media evaluation and planning. •• Reports can be generated overnight – no delays due to waiting to interview the viewers and then tabulate the results.

On the content creation side, the lack of adequate data significantly impacts the professional management of TV operations with broadcast executives not being able to make scientific decisions on programming.

International media companies invest less in the MENA region because of the poor reputation and the lack of standards and professionalism. That results in a lost opportunity by the region in terms of content product, of state-of-the-art technology, and of job creation.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 6 Decisions about data (or about the lack of it) in MENA create additional negative downstream effects. The poor reputation of the regional media industry causes international advertisers to spend less in the market, limiting the overall spend inflow. And the unbalanced power of few intermediaries, which can leverage the limited knowledge of the actual impact and reach of ads, depresses the market prices for TV ad spots.

There have been attempts to implement People-meter in the region, but until recently those attempts have met with limited success. Access to reliable and actionable data requires a shift – a true paradigm shift – in how TV advertising is approached and managed.

In some ways, new and better data appears to threaten the beneficiaries of the status quo. Current market leaders gain from the halo effect associated with their brands. This effect is nearly impossible to remove as current systems rely on people’s memory and therefore tend to inflate the most popular or heavily promoted shows and channels.

Market leaders may also be concerned with the short-term revenue impact from the eventual market share “normalization” sparked by the new data. But that perspective fails to consider the potential growth of the whole market in the long term.

Exhibit 4: PEOPLE-METER IS AT THE CORE OF A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE FOR TV AD MARKETS

FEEDBACK RATINGS

CONTENT CREATION CONTENT PACKAGING CONTENT MONETIZATION

3  Shift in type and 2  Shuing of grids volume of content  Niche channels purchases get a change at 1  Increase and 4  Increased interest in  Costs can be competing re-allocation of ﬁnancing regional matched to advertising budgets production houses revenues Print to TV and across channels and programs Analytics become Release of people- a dierentiator VIRTUOUS CIRCLE meter audience figures

5  Increase in volume of local production 8  …and so does the  Foreign formats and price of GRPs  …and advertising concepts changed to 6  Programming 7  Audience for spend ﬁt Arab norms review to top programs incorporate more goes up… popular content

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 7 A careful examination of the history of People-meter efforts in the region (Exhibit 5) reveals some important lessons for the future. While the introduction of People-meter has been successful in peripheral countries such as Morocco and Lebanon, more mainstream countries like the UAE have only been able to launch a People-meter with direct intervention by government institutions (NMC/TRA), having failed in an attempt twenty years before by PARC. In the largest MENA TV market, Saudi Arabia, the attempts initiated by ART in 1999, by ABG in 2006, and by MBC in 2008 were all unsuccessful. In 2010 the Ministry of Culture and Information (MoCI) started a new effort, to launch in 2013.

Considering the varying degrees of interest and participation by the different national governments in the past and the pan-Arab nature of the TV production, a regional coordination of the government actions at national level is more than urgently required. Such coordinated government intervention at regional level would break the current impasse and enable the MENA TV market to flourish.

Exhibit 5: HISTORY OF ATTEMPTS TO INTRODUCE A PEOPLE-METER SYSTEM IN MENA

Date: 2006 Date: 1997 Date: 1991 Initiator: NA Initiator: NA Initiator: PARC Outcome: Success Outcome: Success Outcome: Halted

Date: 2012 Tunisia Initiator: NMC/TRA Syria Outcome: Ongoing Lebanon Iraq Morocco Israel Jordan Kuwait Algeria Libya Bahrain Egypt Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Oman

Yemen Date: 1999 Date: 2006 Date: 2008 Date: est. 2013 Initiator: ART Initiator: ABG Initiator: MBC Initiator: MoCl Outcome: Failed Outcome: Failed Outcome: Failed Outcome: Ongoing

Programs Oliver Wyman analysis of data drawn from tview’s recently launched People-meter in the are critical to UAE provides a telling illustration of how one-minute viewership data can provide accurate, determine the granular, and practical information on viewership behavior. amount of spill-over Start with stickiness. People-meter data shows how content and advertising are inextricably intertwined. As shown in Exhibit 6, short commercial breaks tend to get the same rating level as the program they are embedded in.

While commercial breaks in the middle of highly-rated programs tend to keep high viewership, a spot at the end of a highly-rated program can get the same viewership as that of a program with a lower rating.

Exhibit 6: AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER “THE VOICE”

RATINGS K MBC News Al Tofah AL Akhdar The Voice WiFi 180

160

140 Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity Publicity

120

100

0 21:30 21:45 22:00 22:15 22:30 22:45 23:00 23:15 23:30 23:45 24:00 24:15 24:30 TIME PERIOD

Source: tview (September 28th 2012) Channel: MBC1. Locals & Expats: Bahraini, Egyptian, Emirati, Iraqi, Jordanian, Kuwaiti, Lebanese, Omani, Palestinian, Qatar, Saudi, Sudanese, Syrian, & Yemeni. Total sample size of 1,514 out of a total universe of 2,899,000. Ratings (‘000s): Calculated by adding together the audience for each individual minute of a program or daypart and dividing it by the program or daypart’s total duration. The 000s for a five-minute slot is calculated in the following way: 000s = (min 1 + min 2 + min 3 + min 4 + min 5)/5 minutes.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 9 Viewers are volatile People-meter data also indicates that viewers make up their minds very quickly about and are quick to the content of a program and are likely to switch from one program to another frequently. change channels In Exhibit 7 viewers abandon one channel (MBC1) to switch to another channel (MBC 2) during the news broadcast.

Exhibit 7: RATINGS OF MBC CHANNELS DURING PEAK TIME

RATINGS K 120 MBC 1 viewers switch to Large drop from MBC 4 as soon MBC 2 during the news as Ala Mar Al Zaman finishes and goes to commercial 100 Viewers leave MBC 2 during the three-minute break MBC 1 ratings is 80 higher toward the end of the night 60 MBC Max

40 MBC 4

20 MBC 2

0 MBC 1 21:00 21:15 21:30 21:45 22:00 22:15 22:30 22:45 23:00 23:15 23:30 23:45 24:00 TIME PERIOD

Source: tview (September 24th 2012 21:00-23:59). Channels: MBC 1, MBC 2, MBC 4, and MBC Max. Based on a sample size of 3,098 individuals out of a total universe of 6,173,000. Ratings (‘000s): Calculated by adding together the audience for each individual minute of a program or daypart and dividing it by the program or daypart’s total duration. The 000s for a five-minute slot is calculated in the following way: 000s = (min 1 + min 2 + min 3 + min 4 + min 5)/5 minutes.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 10 The content Exhibit 8 shows the high variability of the rating of the same talk show on different days. of a program Both the topic and the speakers have an influence on viewership, so one sees differences can heavily not just between a program about Iraq and one about Syria, but also between programs on influence ratings the same topic, Syria, with different guests. Moreover, there is a wide variation in viewership throughout the program itself, underscoring the importance for a program to have content that can catch and keep the viewers’ interest.

Exhibit 8: AL ETEGAH AL MOAAKES’ RATINGS ON DIFFERENT BROADCAST DAYS IN SEPTEMBER 2012

RATINGS K 50

4th Tuesday 20 3rd Tuesday 10 2nd Tuesday

0 1st Tuesday 23:00 23:05 23:10 23:15 23:20 23:25 23:30 23:35 23:40 23:45 23:50 23:55 24:00 TIME PERIOD AL ETEGAH AL AL ETEGAH AL MOAAKES’ GUESTS TOPIC MOAAKES’ GUESTS TOPIC 1st Tuesday Nabil Fayad Political conflicts in 3rd Tuesday Haroon Mohammed Iraq under the (secularist writer) Arab Spring countries (Iraqi writer) Maliki regime

Talaat Rmeih Samir Ebaid (Islamic writer) (Iraqi writer) 2nd Tuesday Haitham Sebahi Syrian issue 4th Tuesday Abd El Hamid Z. Syrian issue (Syrian Social Club) (Syrian colonel) Basam Gaarah Mohammed Sayed (Syrian opposition) A. (writer)

Source: tview. Based on all channels and all programs from the month of September: 1st Tuesday (4th), 2nd Tuesday (11th), 3rd Tuesday (18th), 4th Tuesday (25th). Locals & Expats: Bahraini, Egyptian, Emirati, Iraqi, Jordanian, Kuwaiti, Lebanese, Omani, Palestinian, Qatar, Saudi, Sudanese, Syrian, & Yemeni. Sample size is1,500 out of a total universe of 2,900,000 individuals. Ratings (‘000s): Calculated by adding together the audience for each individual minute of a program or daypart and dividing it by the program or daypart’s total duration. The 000s for a five-minute slot is calculated in the following way: 000s = (min 1 + min 2 + min 3 + min 4 + min 5)/5 minutes.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 11 Top channels People-meters not only supply accurate and granular data but they also let broadcasters are not always rapidly process audience information and take action on content production. In fact, drivers of top People-meters can generate audience reports overnight. programs – as seen in the UAE People-meter data can reveal unanticipated lessons. For example, being broadcast on a in September highly viewed channel is one – but not the only – success factor for a program. Actually, highly viewed programs make highly viewed channels, and not vice versa.

Some top programs are found on channels that don’t fall in the most watched list, as Exhibit 9 demonstrates. So while Abu Dhabi Sport channel is not one of the top 10 most- watched channels, its “Etisalat Super Studio” shows up in the list of the top 10 most watched programs in September in the UAE.

Exhibit 9: TOP CHANNELS/PROGRAMS WATCHED BY EMIRATIS – SEPTEMBER 2012

TOP CHANNELS TOP PROGRAMS RATINGS K CHANNEL NAME RATINGS 20

MBC 1 4.72 16 MBC 2 3.24 12 MBC Drama 3.21

MBC Max 3.19 8

Zee Aﬂam 3.06 4 Dubai TV 2.27 0 MBC Action 2.18

Abu Dhabi Emirates 1.4 (MBC 2) (MBC 1) (MBC 2) Al Lateef (Dubai TV) (Dubai TV) (MBC Max) (MBC Max) Little Nikita Little (Zee Aflam) (Zee

Abu Dhabi Al Oula 1.39 Rush Hour 2 Asef Habeby (Sama Dubai) Paying Guests Paying Dragon Emperor Dragon

Sama Dubai 1.25 (Abu Dhabi Sport) Kawales The Voice Kawales Etisalat Super Studio Something to Talk About Something to Talk Harem Alsoltan/Season 2 Harem The Mummy: Tomb of the The Mummy: Tomb

Note: Etisalat Super Studio is featured in Abu Dhabi Sports Channel. Source: tview. Based on all channels and all programs watched by Emiratis for the month of September 2012. Emirati sample size of 577 out of a total universe of 874,000 individuals – considers only the first run of the programs (without taking into account the ratings of the repetitions). Ratings (‘000s): Calculated by adding together the audience for each individual minute of a program or daypart and dividing it by the program or daypart’s total duration. The 000s for a fine-minute slot is calculated in the following way: 000s = (min 1 + min 2 + min 3 + min 4 + min 5)/5 minutes.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 12 Ratings decrease People-meters can help advertisers and media agencies make better decisions on issues significantly that matter. For example, People-meters provide accurate data on viewer stickiness during throughout a commercial breaks, which can drive more scientific ROI analyses of the invested budget on TV commercial break breaks. Break impact is another important piece of analysis coming out of People-meter data. Exhibit 10 shows a consistent rating difference between the start and the end of a spot. That means that viewers do not have the patience to wait for the recovery of the program, they abandon a channel or re-join after the spot end.

Exhibit 10: TWO-MINUTE COMMERCIAL BREAK IMPACT ON RATINGS

RATINGS OVER BLOCK 100% ~27% decrease in ratings over 80% the block

60%

40%

20%

0% 30 60 90 120 CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF SECONDS

Source: tview (30th September 2012 time slots 19:32-19:37 and 22:51-22:54). Channel: MBC1. All Individuals. Sample size of 3,095 individuals out of a total universe of 6,173,000. Ratings (‘000s): Calculated by adding together the audience for each individual minute of a program or daypart and dividing it by the program or daypart’s total duration. The 000s for a five-minute slot is calculated in the following way: 000s = (min 1 + min 2 + min 3 + min 4 + min 5)/5 minutes.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 13 The People-meter Finally, People-meter data provides real market intelligence. Exhibit 11 shows how an system enables advertiser can learn about the marketing allocation decisions of a competitor by accessing advertisers to the People-meter data and measuring the frequency of the spots broadcast on TV. more accurately analyse their Exhibit 11: DEC 2011 – SEP 2012: NUMBER OF COMMERCIAL SLOTS ON 50 TRACKED TV TV spend CHANNELS FOR KSA TELECOMS

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000 Zain

1,000 Mobily

0 Saudi Telecom Dec Jan Feb March April May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012

Source: tview

TV advertising The introduction of the People-meter throughout the MENA region can bring about a in Bulgaria paradigm shift in how TV content and advertising is measured and managed. All of the and Romania players in this industry (government agencies, networks, content creators, advertisers, increased after to name but a few) will need to adjust to a new model and face People-meter’s some hard facts about content and viewership. 2001 introduction Accurate, granular, and quickly accessible data presents real opportunities for advertisers and broadcasters. Advertiser spend from the big multinationals is expected to increase based on a clearer understanding of what they are buying on TV. Similarly, local advertisers will have incentives to spend more – or at least to shift part of the existing budget allocations from other ad formats, such as print, to TV.

Major broadcasters will benefit from the creation of a very granular ratings system, allowing them to better value their grid. Similarly, niche channels with high audiences will be rewarded through greater valuation of their flagship programs.

The impact on the MENA TV market could be enormous. By way of comparison, Oliver Wyman analysis of the introduction of People-meters in Eastern Europe shows an expected increase of about 20 percentage points of the share of TV over the total ad spend. (See Exhibit 12).

Exhibit 12: MEASURED IMPACT ON SHARE OF TV AD MARKET OVER TOTAL MARKET (1998-2006)

BULGARIA ROMANIA Introduction of People-meter Introduction of People-meter 100% 100%

80% 80%

60% 60%

40% 40%

20% 20% Other

0% 0% Television 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: WARC. Other includes: newspaper, magazine, outdoor, radio.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 15 Still, a critical mass of market players must recognize the benefits of People-meter before the industry is reshaped. The coordinated endorsement from the MENA governments, especially in the GCC, will be an important success factor. But it is also crucial that advertisers, media agencies, and broadcasters embrace the paradigm shift in the media business and invest in capabilities to use the data.

This capability will provide never-before-seen insights into the value of individual programs. Because advertisers will be able to drill deeper than the average viewership of channels, they’ll adopt a new mind-set, and be forced to develop a new skillset for commercial operations.

Data, currently relegated to a marginal role, will become the most important element for successful negotiations and transactions of media content, converting the commercial decisions from art into science.

This shift will impact the media sales force, too, which will need to professionalize, much as the MENA pharmaceutical business has done. Training on how to request, interpret, and present People-meter data for commercial purposes will be crucial for media salespeople to maximize revenue potential, especially of the “long-tail” programs.

Stakeholders in the market need to ask themselves some critical questions: •• Do we have the internal abilities to analyses this kind of data? •• What will our reaction be if the data challenges our business assumptions or practices? •• How will we interact with those who refuse to change both internally and externally?

In our experience, the companies that can address both the strategy and the people issues will be best positioned to seize the entire range of opportunities offered.

Copyright © 2013 Oliver Wyman 16 Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting that combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation.

For more information on Oliver Wyman’s Media Practice, please contact your Oliver Wyman account partner or:

John Turner, Dubai [email protected] +97 1 4 425 7000

Jeff Youssef, Dubai [email protected] +97 1 4 425 7000 www.oliverwyman.com

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