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Mahindra CIE Automotive (MAHAUT) Initiating Coverage April 7, 2014 Rating Matrix Mahindra CIE Automotive (MAHAUT) Rating : Buy | 81 Target : | 130 Target Period : 12-15 months Potential Upside : 60% Unique non-linear possibilities emerge! Mahindra CIE Automotive (MCI), an entity formed by the amalgamation of YoY Growth (%) all automotive component companies of Mahindra Systech and CIE’s (YoY Growth) FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E European forging companies, is one of the world’s largest forger with Net Sales 11.6 4.6 6.6 7.1 presence across North/South America, Europe, India and China. Post the EBITDA 31.7 33.2 24.9 17.9 consummation of the deal (post completion share swap/purchase Net Profit NA 227.4 63.8 32.7 procedure after the regulatory/legal approvals), CIE will hold 51% in the EPS (Rs) NA 227.4 63.8 32.7 All financial numbers have been consolidated for ease of comparison entity while Mahindra would directly hold ~20%. MCI has a presence across both commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles with Valuation Matrix complementary strengths of the dual parents. With cost controls & FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E economic recovery to play out we expect utilisation levels to improve P/E - 48.9 14.9 9.1 leading to EBIT margins rise to ~8% , RoCE expansion to ~14.5% in FY17E. Target P/E - 87.9 26.9 16.4 CIE’s track-record on turnarounds via cost control and high focus on EV / EBITDA 12.8 9.6 6.8 5.2 financial metrics gives us confidence. We initiate coverage with BUY rating. P/BV 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 Turnaround possibilities – CIE’s turnaround acumen, economic recovery!! RoNW - 2.3 7.1 11.4 RoCE 1.6 3.9 7.0 10.8 CIE’s management has laid out clear plans for the turnaround of hot spots Financial numbers are consolidated unlike company representation in MCI. The first one targeted is Mahindra Forgings Europe (MFE), which has seen high operating costs. Along with many others, CIE has targeted a Stock Data 600 bps EBITDA margin increase on an overall basis in 36 months. CIE is Bloomberg/Reuters Code MACA IN / MAHN.NS well known for its intense cost focus and decentralised management, which Sensex 22,347.1 bodes well for turnaround possibilities. An added kicker may emerge in the Average volumes 290,000.0 form of demand/economic recovery in both Europe and India, which may Implied market Cap (| crore)* 2,639 enhance the earnings lever even further. 52 week H/L 82 / 36 Equity Capital (| crore) 325.8 Strong Tier-1.5 supplier to global OEMs…at an inflection point!! Promoter's Stake (%) 79.5 MCI is a strong tier-1.5 supplier to global OEMs, i.e. a supplier of critical FII Holding (%) 5.1 components to OEMs. With global car makers moving towards DII Holding (%) 0.5 homologation with modular architecture and global platforms and *All financial numbers incorporate merger assumption completed standards, automotive suppliers need to meet the increasing technological intensiveness. With the combined entity’s scale advantage, we believe MCI Comparative return matrix (%) stands at an inflection point and can reap the benefits of strong parentage Return % 1M3M6M12M and common sourcing, going ahead. Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd 3.5 66.0 20.5 122.3 Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd 8.1 31.5 71.3 113.1 Past rendered irrelevant as bright future beckons! Bharat Forge Limited 10.7 32.0 56.4 96.9 We feel MCI provides a rare, unique Indian auto component play, which has a global footprint with global promoters along with massive turnaround Price movement possibilities in the company. An improvement in the financials on the back 7,000 90 of cost rationalisation and demand growth could lead to a re-rating for the 80 firm. We forecast ~6% and ~92% CAGR in revenues and earnings, 70 respectively, over FY14E-17E and value the stock on a combination of PE 60 and EV/EBITDA multiples to arrive at a target price of | 130. 50 6,000 Exhibit 1: Key financials 40 30 | crore FY13P FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E 20 Net Sales 4,942.7 5,516.4 5,770.9 6,152.4 6,589.7 10 EBITDA 328.0 431.9 575.1 718.5 847.4 5,000 0 Net Profit (91.5) 54.0 176.8 289.5 384.3 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 EPS (|) (2.8) 1.7 5.4 8.9 11.8 Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) P/E (x) - 48.9 14.9 9.1 6.9 EV / EBITDA (x) 12.8 9.6 6.8 5.2 4.2 P/BV (x) 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Analyst’s name RoNW (%) (5.6) 2.3 7.1 11.4 14.4 Nishant Vass RoCE (%) 1.6 3.9 7.0 10.8 14.3 [email protected] Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research All financial numbers have been consolidated for ease of comparison Venil Shah [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Shareholding pattern (Q3FY14) Company background Holdings (%) Mahindra CIE Automotive (MCI) is an automotive component supplier, Promoters 79.5 formed by the alliance of CIE Automotive, a Spanish automotive Foreign Institutional Investors 5.1 component major and Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) Systech division. With Domestic Institutional Investors 0.5 the merger in place, the company will become the third largest forger in the Others 15.0 world with a consolidated revenue size of ~| 5000 crore. MCI would have a presence in Asia (India, China) and Europe (Spain, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, Lithuania) supplying forgings, castings, gears and stampings, Institutional holding trend thereby making Mahindra CIE Automotive a strong global player. 12.0 Exhibit 2: Overview of entity 10.0 8.0 M&M CIE Public 6.0 20.18% 53% 26.82% 4.0 10.1 10.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 5.1 2.0 4.7 Mahindra CIE 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 Systech India Systech Europe CIE Forgings Europe Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Germany, UK, Italy Spain, Lithuania FII DII ›Forgings~| 420 core ›~| 1000 core ›Forgings~| 1800 core Shareholding pattern CIE Automotive (CY13) ›Stampings~| 760 core ›Gears ~| 400 core ›Castings & Foundry Holdings(%) ~| 480 core Gestamp 24.9 ›Gears~| 100 core Mahindra 13.5 ›Composites~| 50 core Management Team 15.5 Others 46.1 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 3: Combined Entity- breakup Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 4: Detailed view of Mahindra CIE: Revenue contribution Mahindra CIE Automotive | 5062 cr Castings & Forgings Magnets Gears Composites Stampings | 3259 cr | 478 cr | 508 cr | 50 cr | 766 cr Mahindra Mahindra Metalcastello Mahindra MUSCO Forgings Hinoday SpA Composites (Stamping) | 2216 cr | 478 cr | 402 cr | 50 cr | 766cr MF India MF Europe Domestic Mahindra Gears Domestic Domestic | 424 cr | 1792 cr | 331 cr | 106 cr | 46 cr | 752 cr CIE Forgings Exports Domestic Exports Exports Exports | 1042 cr | 148 cr | 67 cr | 39 cr | 4 cr | 14 cr Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research About the partners: CIE Automotive is a Spain-based company engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the production of bio-fuels as well as with the supply of components and subassemblies for the automotive industry. The company is a parent of Grupo CIE Automotive, which comprises a number of controlled entities, with operations in Spain, Portugal, France, Lithuania, Morocco, Czech Republic, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, China, Russia, Guatemala and Mexico, among others. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the supply of Exhibit 5: CIE major clientele components and subassemblies for the automotive industry as well as in Segment CIE Customer production of bio-fuels. CIE Automotive is also engaged in the information Daimler Chrysler, GM Group, technology (IT) sector, providing technological solutions to the healthcare, Toyota, Fiat Group, PSA Peugeot OEM education, sustainability, transport and communications sectors. The Citröen, VW Group, Ford Group, Renault company is a parent of Grupo CIE Automotive, a group that comprises a Nissan number of controlled entities with operations in Spain, Portugal, France, Antolín, Bosch, Continental, DAF, Lithuania, Morocco, Czech Republic, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, China, Delphi, Faurecia, Filftrauto, GKN, John Russia, Guatemala and Mexico, among others. CIE Automotive has such Deere, KYB, Lear, Nexteer, NSK, Tier-1 Suppliers subsidiaries as Global Dominion Access SA, CIE Inversiones e Inmuebles Paulstra, Pierburg, Schaeffler Group, Trelleborg, TRW, Valeo, Visteon, Woco, Sociedad Limitada and CIE Berriz Sociedad Limitada, among others. ZF CNH, DAF, John Deere, MAN, Daimler, CIE Automotive has emerged from the crisis as one of the leading global Industrial players in its area of expertise, ranking within the top 75 global automotive IVECO Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research component makers by revenue and the top 1,000 companies in the world in terms of R&D spending. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3 Exhibit 6: CIE growth path and acquisitions along the way Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Founded in 1945 as a steel trading company, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) entered automotive manufacturing in 1947 to bring the iconic Willys Jeep on to Indian roads. Today, M&M manufactures utility vehicles, light commercial vehicles and tractors in India. The company has also made a foray into the MHCV segment. M&M is the market leader in both the utility vehicle and tractor segments with a dominant share in the segment. M&M has diversified into many new businesses. It has become a US$15.9-billion multinational group with more than 155,000 employees in over 100 countries across the globe with operations in aerospace, aftermarket, agribusiness, automotive, components, construction equipment, consulting services, defence, energy, farm equipment, finance & insurance, industrial equipment, information technology, leisure & hospitality, logistics, real estate, retail and two-wheelers.
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