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PREMIER LEAGUE INTERNATIONAL RIGHTS VALUATION Outline

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PREMIER LEAGUE INTERNATIONAL RIGHTS VALUATION Outline ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT AN ASSESSMENT OF THE BBC’S APPROACH AND IMPACT A REPORT FOR THE BBC TRUST APPENDIX XII – CHARTS FOR REPORT Redacted Version BY OLIVER & OHLBAUM ASSOCIATES APRIL 22nd 2008 ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION A – INTRODUCTION AND SCENE SETTING SECTION B - THE ECONOMICS OF ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION C - THE UK MARKET FOR ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION D - THE ROLE, POSITIONING AND PERFORMANCE OF THE BBC SECTION E - ASSESSMENT OF MARKET IMPACT AND VALUE FOR MONEY FIGURE A.1. – O&O METHODOLOGIES EMPLOYED PROCESS DETAILS 20 INTERVIEWS BBC INTERVIEWS 50 PEOPLE 27 INTERVIEWS EXTERNAL INTERVIEWS 35 PEOPLE INCOME POLARISATION TRENDS MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS TOP TALENT IN OTHER ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRIES IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION AND DIGITISATION 2,000 ADULTS VALUE SURVEY 136 STAR NAMES, 14 GENRES TESTED TRACKING TV CAREER PATHS OF CURRENT ROSTER OVER 20 YEARS TALENT TRACKING 170 INDIVIDUALS ACROSS 6 SUB-GENRES SPENDING BY MEDIA AND GENRE SINCE 2004/2005 BBC SPENDING TRENDS TALENT SPENDING FOR 400 STRANDS TALENT INFLATION RATES SINCE 2000/2001 ANALYSIS OF PAYMENTS APPROVAL DOCUMENTATION BBC PROCESSES AND STRATEGY DOCUMENTS REVIEW OF PROPOSAL, REVIEW AND APPROVAL PROCEDURES RADIO BENCHMARKING EXERCISE MARKET PRICE AND INFLATION BENCHMARKING INTERVIEWS ON COMMERCIAL TV VALUATION METHODS DEVELOPMENT OF COMMERCIAL VALUATION MODEL FOR TOP TALENT COMMERCIAL VALUATION MODELLING BASED ON INCREMENTAL ADVERTISING REVENUE ASSESSMENT OF GENRE, SLOT AND SUB-GENRE COST PER VIEWER AND SPEND VERSUS AUDIENCE ANALYSIS LISTNER HOUR BENCHMARKS ATTEMPT TO ISOLATE THE LINK BETWEEN TYPE AND LEVEL OF TALENT WITH REGRESSION ANALYSIS AUDIENCES BASED ON RATINGS DATA ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION A – INTRODUCTION AND SCENE SETTING SECTION B - THE ECONOMICS OF ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION C - THE UK MARKET FOR ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION D - THE ROLE, POSITIONING AND PERFORMANCE OF THE BBC SECTION E - ASSESSMENT OF MARKET IMPACT AND VALUE FOR MONEY FIGURE B.1. – EXAMPLE PROGRAMME CHARACTERISTICS BY GENRE DESIGN/ ACCESS TO KEY LEAD TALENT/ RELEVANCE RELATIONSHIPS/ EXECUTION PARTICIPATION NARRATIVE CHARACTERISATION EVENT/ MATERIAL SUPPORT TALENT • PACE • LEAD ACTORS • LOCATION • SYMPATHETIC • SET DESIGN DRAMA • SCRIPT • SUPPORT • SITUATION • BELIEVABLE • EDITING ACTORS • LIGHTING • TEAMS • NUMBER OF SPORTS INCLUDED CAMERAS • HOST • KEY LIVE EVENT EVENT • CONTESTANTS • ANALYSIS • PUNDIT INVOLVED • DIRECTION • HUMOUR CHAT • ISSUES DEALT • GUEST • QUALITY OF • SUPPORT MUSIC • LEVEL OF • HOST SHOW INSIGHT/ WITH INTERPLAY ACCESS • SET DESIGN REVELATION • SUBJECT • LEVEL OF • FORMAT • SET DESIGN MATTER • EMPATHY WITH DIFFICULTY QUIZ SHOW • UNCERTAINTY • PRIZE MONEY • ACCURACY • HOST • LEVEL OF CONTESTANTS • VOTING AND OF OUTCOME DIFFICULTY • TEMPO POLLING • ACTORS TV • EMPATHY • DIRECTION • SCRIPT • SITUATION • SUPPORT COMEDY • INTERPLAY • PACE AND TIMING ACTORS RADIO CHART • MUSIC POLICY • DJ SHOW • SCRIPT • FAMILIARITY • UNIQUE LANDMARK FOOTAGE • NARRATIVE • CONTEMPORARY • PRESENTER FACTUAL POSITION/ AREA OF • UNIQUE POLEMIC INTEREST INFORMATION FIGURE B.2. – TALENT AS AN AUDIENCE AND VALUE DRIVER PROGRAMME CHARACTERISTICS POSITIONING “ASSET” IMPACT ON VIEWERS/CONSUMERS GENRE TALENT DESIGN/NARRATIVE/ FORMAT RELEVANCE PROGRAMME CHARACTERISTICS VIEWER VALUE RELATIONSHIPS/ CHARACTERISATION ACCESS AUDIENCE SIZE EXECUTION PARTICIPATION TIMESLOT AUDIENCE DEMOGRAPHICS CHANNEL BRAND AND DEMOGRAPHICS INHERITANCE/ PROMOTION SOURCE: O&O VALUE SURVEY SOURCE: O&O VALUE FIGURE B.3.– OFTALENTBY PROGRAMMETYPE IMPORTANCE IMPORTANCE 100 SCORE 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 CHAT SHOW HOST CHAT SHOW GUEST IMPORTANCE OF PRESENTER & SUPPORTING TALENT OR GUESTS: MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS- SELECTED PROGRAMME TYPES DRAMA LEAD ACTOR DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR , JANUARY2008 SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW HOST SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW GUEST COOKERY SHOW CHEF CHART RADIO DJ CHART RADIO GUESTS PANEL GAME PRESENTER PANEL GAME GUEST QUIZ PRESENTER MUSIC & SPEECH RADIO DJ MUSIC & SPEECH RADIO GUEST LIFESTYLE & MAKEOVER PRESENTER SERIOUS FACTUAL PRESENTER NEWSREADER NEWS & SPORT RADIO PRESENTER NEWS & SPORT RADIO GUEST SPORTS TV PRESENTER SPORTS TV PUNDIT MEAN DEVIATION STANDARD MINUS ONE DEVIATION STANDARD PLUS ONE PLUS VERY IMPORTANT VERY REASON MAIN QUITE IMPORTANT QUITE NOT IMPORTANT FIGURE B.4. – IMPORTANCE OF LEAD TALENT WITHIN ENTERTAINMENT GENRE IMPORTANCE OF PRESENTER/HOST (SATURDAY NIGHT ENTERTAINMENT, CHAT SHOWS, QUIZ SHOWS, PANEL GAMES) NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS 140 NOT IMPORTANT QUITE IMPORTANT VERY IMPORTANT MAIN REASON 120 100 80 60 CHAT SHOWS 40 SATURDAY NIGHT ENTERTAINMENT PANEL GAMES 20 QUIZ SHOWS 0 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 INTERVALS OF IMPORTANCE SCORES SOURCE: O&O VALUE SURVEY, JANUARY 2008 FIGURE B.5. – PROPORTION OF RESPONDENTS GIVING HIGH POPULARITY/LIKEABILITY SCORINGS TO NAMED TALENT PROPORTION OF SCORES OVER 75 - INDEXED TO TOP PROPORTION (SATURDAY NIGHT ENTERTAINMENT, CHAT SHOWS, QUIZ SHOWS, PANEL GAMES) POPULARITY SCORE INDEX (100=TOP SCORE ACROSS ALL 136 NAMES) 100 5TH RANKED 8TH RANKED PRESENTER PRESENTER 90 80 70 60 50 40 SATURDAY NIGHT ENTERTAINMENT 30 QUIZ SHOWS PANEL GAMES 20 CHAT SHOWS 10 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH 5TH 6TH 7TH 8TH 9TH 10TH 11TH RANKING OF NAMED PRESENTERS/HOSTS BY SUB-GENRE SOURCE: O&O VALUE SURVEY, JANUARY 2008 FIGURE B.6. – TIERS OF TALENT WITHIN GENRE AND SUB-GENRE EXAMPLE TIERS WITHIN SUB-GENRE GENRE SUB-GENRE TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3 DRAMA SERIES SUPPORTING ACTORS IN SERIES AND LEAD ACTORS IN DRAMA SERIES AND WALK ON PARTS SOAPS SERIALS SERIALS MINOR PARTS DRAMA/COMEDY LEAD ACTORS IN “SOAPS” SITCOMS LEAD COMIC PERFORMERS NEW COMIC PERFORMERS OTHER COMEDY SUPPORT COMIC PERFORMERS QUIZ LEAD PANELISTS PANEL HOSTS/PRESENTERS ON MAJOR OTHER PANELISTS ENTERTAINMENT CELEBRITY PARTICIPANT CHAT NETWORKS LEAD MUSIC GUESTS MINOR CONTRIBUTORS HOSTS/PRESENTERS ON MINOR CHANNELS ENT SHOWS LANDMARK FACTUAL SUPPORT PRESENTERS FACTUAL/ FACTUAL ENT SERIES “AUTHORS” LEAD PRESENTERS ON MINOR EXPERT CONTRIBUTORS KNOWLEDGE LIFESTYLE/ MAKEOVER HOUSEHOLD NAME PRESENTERS SERIES/DIGITAL CHANNELS INTERVIEWEES TV COOKERY NARRATORS/ VOICE OVERS DRAMA LEAD PRESENTERS IN MAIN MAGAZINE SUPPORT PRESENTERS ON MAIN CHILDREN’S OTHER CONTRIBUTORS FACTUAL/ STRANDS STRANDS MAGAZINE MAGAZINE HOSTS/PRESENTERS FOR MAJOR OCCASIONAL PUNDITS, MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS SPORTS SPORTS MINOR PRESENTERS/PUNDITS ON SPORT MAJOR LIVE EVENT LEAD REGULAR PUNDITS FOR MAJOR PRESENTERS AND PUNDITS, MINOR MINOR SPORTS MINOR LIVE EVENT SPORTS SPORTS MAIN BULLETIN LEAD NEWS PRESENTERS CORRESPONDENTS NEWS CONTINUOUS NEWS JUNIOR CORRESPONDENTS LEAD ON-SCREEN EDITORS MINOR EDITORS CURRENT AFFAIRS RADIO 1 BREAKFAST DJs OTHER DAYTIME DJs ON MAIN NIGHTIME DJs ON MAIN NETWORKS MUSIC LED RADIO 2 DRIVE TIME DJs ON MAIN NETWORKS NETWORKS MUSIC LED DJs ON LOCAL RADIO RADIO 3 RADIO 1 LEAD NAMES IN REGULAR WEEKLY LOCAL RADIO DJs MUSIC/SPEECH RADIO 2 SUPPORT PRESENTER STRANDS NETWORK CONTRIBUTORS RADIO 3 RADIO DRAMA LEAD ACTORS IN DRAMA OR COMEDY DRAMA/COMEDY COMEDY LEAD COMEDIANS IN PANEL GAMES RADIO SUPPORT ACTORS PANEL GAME SUPPORT COMEDIANS IN PANEL GAMES REGULAR DAILY/ PRESENTERS ON SPECIALIST WEEKEND WEEKLY LEAD PRESENTERS ON NETWORK OR EVENING SHOWS SPEECH/MAGAZINE OTHER CONTRIBUTORS SPECIALIST/ DAILY/WEEKLY STRANDS LEAD PRESENTERS ON REGIONAL EVENING LOCAL RADIO FIGURE B.7. – TALENT LIFECYCLE PERFORMANCE AND FEES FEE RATE/ VIEWER VALUE CAREER PEAK REINVIGORATION VALUE TO VIEWERS CAREER LAUNCH FEE RATE CAREER SLUMP/”REST” PAID TIME SOURCE: O&O INTERVIEWS FIGURE B.8. - BBC VALUE AND PRICE SETTING – 3 examples EXAMPLE A EXAMPLE B EXAMPLE C VALUE INDEX 140 BBC PRICE = 105 BBC PRICE = 115 BBC PRICE = 95 (FOR REPLACEMENT PRESENTER) 120 120 120 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 80 60 60 40 20 OPPORTUNITY VALUE TO BBC VALUE TO VALUE OF OPPORTUNITY VALUE TO BBC VALUE TO VALUE OF OPPORTUNITY VALUE TO BBC VALUE TO VALUE OF COST TO RIVAL BBC REPLACMENT COST TO RIVAL BBC REPLACMENT COST TO RIVAL BBC REPLACMENT TALENT BROADCASTER PRESENTER TO BBC TALENT BROADCASTER PRESENTER TO BBC TALENT BROADCASTER PRESENTER TO BBC (WITH OPPORTUNITY COST OF 90) ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION A – INTRODUCTION AND SCENE SETTING SECTION B - THE ECONOMICS OF ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION C - THE UK MARKET FOR ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT SECTION D - THE ROLE, POSITIONING AND PERFORMANCE OF THE BBC SECTION E - ASSESSMENT OF MARKET IMPACT AND VALUE FOR MONEY FIGURE C.1. – THE UK ON SCREEN AND ON AIR TALENT MARKET – estimated value 2006/2007 ESTIMATED UK ON-SCREEN AND ON-AIR TALENT SPENDING-2006/2007 £M 4000 3500 £3,385M RADIO PRODUCTION 345 3000 REGIONAL OUTPUT 340 PRODUCTION NEWS 310 2500 PRODUCTION INDEPENDENT 2000 PRODUCERS 1050 1500 £2,390M NETWORK TV OTHER (FREMANTLE, IN- PRODUCTION 220 HOUSE SATELLITE TV (INC SPORT & ETC) 1000 MUSIC) £172M £757M 450 ITV £584M 500 RADIO 100 50 REGIONAL 46 NEWS 620 BBC TV IN- HOUSE 388 TV TOTAL PROGRAMME PRODUCTION PRIMARY PAYMENTS TO ON- REPEAT, SECONDARY AND TOTAL INCOME TO ON-SCREEN AND SCREEN AND ON-AIR TALENT ANCILLARY PAYMENTS TO ON- ON-AIR TALENT FROM UK TV AND RADIO SCREEN AND ON-AIR TALENT SOURCE: BBC, COMPANY ACCOUNTS, O&O ANALYSIS FIGURE C.2. – COMPETITION FOR AUDIENCES OVER TIME – audience share by main channel UK CHANNEL AUDIENCE SHARES, 1998-2006 AUDIENCE SHARE (%) % SHARE CHANGE 100 12.9 13.9 16.5 90 19.0 19.7 20.6 22.3 23.6 24.7 25.3 OTHER THEMATICS 12.4% 4.3 5.4 80 5.7 10.3 5.8 6.3 10.3 6.5 6.6 0.8 FIVE SPINOFFS 0.8 6.4 10.5 0.7 5.7 1.7% 0.8 5.2 FIVE 70 10.0 1.3 9.8 2.4 9.4 3.2 C4 SPINOFFS 9.6 9.6 0.6 0.9 1.5% 9.6 8.6 C4 60 1.2 2.3 31.7 31.2 3.2 3.9 ITV SPIN-OFFS 29.3 26.8 50 24.1 23.7 22.8 21.5 19.7 -8.6% 19.2 ITV1 40 1.2 1.7 11.3 2.1 10.8 2.5 10.8 11.1 2.9 3.4 11.4 11.0 BBC SPIN-OFFS 30 10.0 9.4 8.8 8.5 BBC 2 20 -6.9% 29.5 28.4 27.2 26.9 26.2 25.6 24.7 23.3 22.8 BBC 1 10 22.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 SOURCE: OBS, BARB FIGURE C.3.
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