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Regional Internal Migration Estimates, Provisional, March 2021

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3 August 2021

Regional Internal Migration Estimates, provisional, March 2021

In the year to March 2021 there was a recovery in the number of interstate moves, with 371,000 people moving interstate compared with 354,000moves in the yearto December 2020. This recovery was driven by the highestnumber of interstate moves for a Marchquartersince 1996, with around 104,000 people moving.

Close to a quarter of the increase in interstate moves was driven by increased departures from Victoria, as Melbourne exited its second lockdown in November 2020. This was due to an outflowof 28,500 peoplefrom Melbourne to the easternstates, with the majority of peopleleaving Melbourne settling in regional Victoria.

Netinternal migration forregions outsidethecapital cities continued to increase, with netmigration of 44,700 people in the year to March 2021. The number of capital city residents moving to the regions is now higher than it was prior to the onsetof the pandemic(244,000 departurescompared with 230,000in March2020).

The recovery in the number of people moving interstate has affected states and territories differently, with smaller states seeing fewerdepartures, reversing recent historical trends.

Net interstate migration has slowed due to COVID, but started to recover in March 2021

Since the onsetof the COVID-19pandemic net interstate migration has fallen from a high of 404,000in June 2019, to a lowof 354,000 people in December 2020. Interstate migration has startedto recover with 371,000 people moving interstate over the year to March 2021. The number of peoplemoving interstate in the March quarter 2021was 104,000, the highestnumberof movesfor a March quarter since1996.

This recoveryin interstate migration was drivenby an increase in peopleleaving Victoria which accounted for 23 per centof the increase in interstate moves in the March quarter.

Chart 1.

LEVEL OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION, YEAR ENDING, 2010 TO 2021

  • '000
  • '000

Peak net interstate migration

410 390 370 350 330 310
410 390 370 350 330 310

404,000 people year to June 2019

COVID-19

11 per centdecline in year to Dec 2020, recovering to 3 per centin year to March2021

  • Mar 10
  • Mar 11
  • Mar 12
  • Mar 13
  • Mar 14
  • Mar 15
  • Mar 16
  • Mar 17
  • Mar 18
  • Mar 19
  • Mar 20
  • Mar 21

Page 1 of 4

Centre for Population

The second Melbourne lockdown continues to weigh on migration to Victoria

Victoria continued to have a historically lowlevel of netinterstate migration in the year to March2021, with a net18,200 people moving interstate due to the impactof Melbourne’s second lockdown. Sincethe end of the second Melbournelockdown in late November2020, quarterly netinternal migration forMelbournehas continued to be negative, driven by an increase in the number of departures from the city (28,500 people). For the first time, this record netloss of internal migrants has seen Melbournehave a larger net loss of people compared with Sydney (32,200 compared with 31,600peoplerespectively).

Chart 2.

NET INTERNAL MIGRATION, CAPITAL CITIES AND REST OF STATE AREAS, YEAR ENDING, 2011-2021

'000
20

  • '000
  • '000
  • '000

  • 20 20
  • 20

15 10 5

Brisbane

Eastern state regional areas attractingnew residents

10
0
10 15

Vic

NSW

Hobart

  • 0
  • 10

5

ACT

Adelaide

Darw in

Perth

Qld

-10 -20 -30
-10 -20 -30 -40

Tas

SA

Melbourne

  • 0
  • 0

Sydney

NT

-5
-10
-5 -10

WA

Melbourne overtakes
Sydney

-40

  • Mar 11
  • Mar 13
  • Mar 15
  • Mar 17
  • Mar 19
  • Mar 21
  • Mar 11
  • Mar 13
  • Mar 15
  • Mar 17
  • Mar 19
  • Mar 21

Residents departing Melbourne are going to regional Victoria and the eastern states

Residents departing fromMelbournein the March quarter2021weremostlikelyto settle in regional Victoria (44,100 people), but there are also large flows to NewSouth Wales (19,900people) and Queensland (20,300 people). The distribution of departures fromMelbournefollowshistorical patterns, however the increase in the level of departures fromMelbourneis the largest since the start of this series.

Chart 3.

DESTINATIONS OF DEPARTURES FROM MELBOURNE, YEAR TO MARCH 2021

  • 0
  • 5
  • 10
  • 15
  • 20
  • 25
  • 30
  • 35
  • 40
  • 45
  • 50

Rest of Vic.
Sydney
'000

43 per cent of

Rest of Qld Brisbane
Rest of NSW
Perth

departures from Melbourne moved to regional Victoria

39 per cent of departures from Melbourne moved to NSW or QLD

Adelaide
ACT
Rest of Tas.
Hobart Darwin
Rest of WA Rest of SA Rest of NT
'000

  • 50
  • 0
  • 5
  • 10
  • 15
  • 20
  • 25
  • 30
  • 35
  • 40
  • 45

Regional Victoria is driving high net internal migration for all regional areas

Netinternal migration for regions outside thecapital cities continuedto increase, with a netmigration of 44,700 people in the year to March2021. The numberof capital city residents moving to the regionsis now higher than itwas prior to the onsetof the pandemic(244,000 departures comparedwith 230,000 in the year to March 2020). Along with a continuedlowlevel of departures fromregions to capital cities, this has

Page 2 of 4

Centre for Population

contributed to a record increasein netinternal migrationfor regional areas. This was almost double the net internal migration forregional areas in March 2020.

Chart 4.

INTERNAL MIGRATION FOR REGIONS OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL CITIES, YEAR ENDING, 2003 TO 2021

  • '000
  • '000
  • '000
  • '000

300

250 200 150
300 250 200 150
50 40 30 20 10
0
50 40 30 20 10 0

Departures from capitals above pre-coivd level
244,000 in past year
Net internal migration

for regions outside capital cities

Capital city residents moving to regions outside capitals

Outside capitalcity residents movingto capitals

  • Mar 03
  • Sep 07
  • Mar 12
  • Sep 16
  • Mar 21
  • Mar 03
  • Sep 07
  • Mar 12
  • Sep 16
  • Mar 21

Across states and territories, people are moving more as economic conditions improve

••••

Queensland had the largest net interstate migration compared to other states and territories, with annual netinterstate migration reaching 30,800 people in March 2021.

South Australia had its highestquarterly netinterstatemigrationon record (650 people), reversing recent historical trends of negative net interstate migration.

WesternAustralia also reversedrecent historical trends of negative net interstate migration with arrivals continuing to outstripdepartures with annual net interstate migrationof 3,200 people.

The Northern Territory had a netloss of peoplein the yearto March 2021, thoughthis was less negative than in the year to March2020(-1,100 compared with -3,400respectively). The increasein net interstate migration to the Northern Territoryoverthis periodhas been driven by an increase in arrivals to Darwin.

  • Chart 5.
  • ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES, STATES AND TERRITORIES, 2010TO 2021

Page 3 of 4

Analysis of National, state and territory population, March 2021

Table 1. UPCOMIN G MAJOR POPU LATION R ELEASES

  • Release
  • Former catalogue
  • Release date

Regional population by age and sex, 2019-20 National, state and territory population, March 2021 Deaths, Australia, 2020

3235.0 3101.0 3302.0
27/08/2021 16/09/2021 29/09/2021

NOTES

There werea numberof small lockdowns in the threemonthsto March 2021, including the Northern beaches lockdown in Sydney whichlasted until mid-January, and shorterlockdowns in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth in Februaryand March. The shortnatureof theselockdowns does notappear to have hada major negative impacton net interstate migration levels or patterns, whilelonger lockdowns suchas the second Melbourne lockdown havebeenshown to havea major impacton net interstate migration.

Further detail is availablefromtheAustralian Bureau of Statistics here.

Page 4 of 4

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