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Global Trends to 2035

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Global Trends to 2035 Global Trends to 2035 Geo-politics and international power Global Trends to 2035 Geo-politics and international power This study considers eight economic, societal, and political global trends that will shape the world to 2035, namely an ageing population, fragile globalisation, a technological revolution, climate change, shifting power relations, new areas of state competition, politics of the information age and ecological threats. It first examines how they may affect some of the fundamental assumptions of the international system. Then it considers four scenarios based on two factors: an unstable or stable Europe and world. Finally, it presents policy options for the EU to address the challenges created by these trends. AUTHOR This study has been written by Oxford Analytica, at the request of the Global Trends Unit of the Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value, within the Directorate General for Parliamentary Research Services (DG EPRS) of the General Secretariat of the European Parliament. ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE Leopold Schmertzing, Global Trends Unit, EPRS [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. Manuscript completed in July 2017. Brussels © European Union, 2017. Cover photo: Creative Commons by Pixabay. PE 603.263 Print: QA-04-17-693-EN-C ISBN 978-92-846-1493-6 DOI:10.2861/22464 PDF: QA-04-17-693-EN-N ISBN 978-92-846-1494-3 DOI:10.2861/800293 Global Trends to 2035 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 5 Section 1: Trends since 2015................................................................................................... 13 Section 2: Trends to 2035 ........................................................................................................ 15 Trend 1: An ageing global population ................................................................................. 15 I - Developing countries ......................................................................................................... 15 II – Developed world .............................................................................................................. 19 1. Europe ..................................................................................................................... 20 Trend 2: Fragile globalisation in a multipolar world ......................................................... 23 I - Economic leaders ................................................................................................................ 23 1. United States ........................................................................................................... 23 2. Europe ..................................................................................................................... 23 3. China ........................................................................................................................ 24 II - Globalisation elsewhere ................................................................................................... 25 III - Structural changes in globalisation ............................................................................... 25 1. Goods trade maturing ........................................................................................... 27 2. Shift to services ....................................................................................................... 27 IV- New drivers of growth to 2035 ....................................................................................... 28 Trend 3: Industrial and technological revolution ............................................................... 29 I - Technologies ....................................................................................................................... 29 1. Self-Driving Cars .................................................................................................... 29 2. Artificial intelligence and automation ................................................................ 30 3. Sharing economy.................................................................................................... 32 4. Data privatisation .................................................................................................. 32 II - Implications for Europe ................................................................................................... 33 Trend 4: Climate change and resource competition ........................................................... 34 I - Growing GHG emissions .................................................................................................. 34 II - Resource competition ....................................................................................................... 35 1. Food ......................................................................................................................... 35 2. Water ....................................................................................................................... 36 3. Energy...................................................................................................................... 38 III - Political solutions ............................................................................................................ 40 2. Developed world vs developing world .............................................................. 41 Trend 5: Changing power in the international system ...................................................... 41 I - Country power projections ............................................................................................... 42 1. United States ........................................................................................................... 42 2. Russia ....................................................................................................................... 42 3. China ........................................................................................................................ 43 4. European Union ..................................................................................................... 44 5. G20 ........................................................................................................................... 45 Trend 6: New arenas of state competition ........................................................................... 47 I - Space .................................................................................................................................... 47 1. Trends in space market ......................................................................................... 47 II - Maturing weapons systems in development ................................................................ 48 1. Air ............................................................................................................................ 48 2. Land ......................................................................................................................... 49 1 EPRS - Global Trends Unit 3. Sea ............................................................................................................................ 49 III - Policing rogue and failing states.................................................................................... 50 IV - Cyber ................................................................................................................................. 50 1. Government collaboration over norm-setting ................................................... 51 2. Balkanised internet ................................................................................................ 51 V - Arctic .................................................................................................................................. 51 1. Territorial claims .................................................................................................... 52 2. Institutional jurisdiction ........................................................................................ 53 Trend 7: Politics of the Information Age.............................................................................. 54 I - Inequality ............................................................................................................................. 54 II - Industry disruption .......................................................................................................... 56 1. Gradual change ...................................................................................................... 57 2. Rapid disruption .................................................................................................... 58 3. Political effect for Europe .................................................................................... 59 III - Populism ........................................................................................................................... 59 1. Populist prospects .................................................................................................. 60
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