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Motrista 93 94 Web 93-94 , • - . • - Časopis Motrišta referiran je u Central and Eastern European Online Library /Frankfurt am Main/ - http://www.ceeol.com Zbornik radova s Međunarodnoga znanstveno-stručnog skupa Demografska kriza hrvatskoga naroda u Bosni i Hercegovini 93-94 br. 93-94, časopis za kulturu, znanost i društvena pitanja Utemeljitelj i nakladnik: Matica hrvatska Mostar Sunakladnik: Hrvatska akademija za znanost i umjetnost u Bosni i Hercegovini Realizacija i distribucija: Zdravo društvo Mostar Za nakladnike: Ljerka OSTOJIĆ i Jakov PEHAR Glavni urednik: Josip MUSELIMOVIĆ Odgovorna urednica: Ljerka OSTOJIĆ Tajnica: Vanja PRUSINA Uredništvo: Mladen BEVANDA, Misijana BRKIĆ MILINKOVIĆ, fra Ante MARIĆ, Dragan MARIJANOVIĆ, Šimun MUSA, Mira PEHAR, Božo ŽEPIĆ Lektura i korektura: Misijana BRKIĆ MILINKOVIĆ Grafičko oblikovanje: SHIFT kreativna agencija, Mostar Telefon/faks: +387 36 323 501 E-mail: [email protected] Adresa: Ulica kralja Zvonimira b.b., 88000 Mostar Žiroračuni: 338 100 220 201 2542 UniCredit Bank d.d. Mostar 161 02 000 115 000 30 kod RAIFFEISEN BANK BiH Uplata iz inozemstva: UniCredit Bank d.d. Mostar SWIFT UNCR BA 22 IBAN: BA 39 338 060 481 699 95 75 Cijena: 10 KM, dvobroj 20 KM, za inozemstvo dvostruko Mišljenjem Federalnog ministarstva prosvjete, znanosti, kulture i športa br. 08-91-4/97. od 3.3.1997. glasilo Motrišta upisano je u evidenciju javnih glasila pod br. 661 i oslobođeno plaćanja poreza na promet proizvoda. HRVATSKA AKADEMIJA ZA ZNANOST I UMJETNOST U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI Zbornik radova s Međunarodnoga znanstveno-stručnog skupa Demografska kriza hrvatskoga naroda u Bosni i Hercegovini (Mostar, 15. travnja 2016.) Uredništvo akademik Frano Ljubić akademik Šimun Musa akademik Josip Muselimović akademik Jakov Pehar akademik Božo Žepić Glavni urednik akademik Šimun Musa Izvršni urednik Miro Petrović Lektorica Misijana Brkić Milinković, dipl. novinarka Tajnica Vanja Prusina Stjepan ŠTERC, Mirjana MILIĆEVIĆ, Nevenko HERCEG Revitalizacijski potencijal hrvatskoga naroda . 7 Vinko KANDŽIJA, Tomislav KANDŽIJA, Ivan TOLIĆ Socijalna kohezija u procesu priključivanja Bosne i Hercegovine Europskoj uniji . 26 Dr. sc. Žarko DUGANDŽIĆ, doc. Izravni demografski gubici Hrvata Hercegovine u ratu od 1991. do 1995. godine . 37 Dr. sc. Marinko MARIĆ Depopulacija hrvatskog stanovništva u BiH tijekom 20. stoljeća: Utjecaj ratova i izbjeglištva na primjeru katoličke župe Stjepan Krst . .55 Tomo VUKŠIĆ Demografsko stanje i procesi katolika u Bosni i Hercegovini od 1996. do 2015. godine.. 72 Akademik Jakov PEHAR, prof. emeritus Visoko obrazovanje u kontekstu demografskog stanja hrvatskoga naroda u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine . 87 Akademik Božo ŽEPIĆ Ključni čimbenici i mogući pravci demografske obnove Hrvata u BiH...........100 Akademik Šimun MUSA, Dr. sc. Marija MUSA Hrvatski jezik kao čimbenik u zaštiti demografske perspektive Hrvata . 116 Prof. dr. sc. Frano LJUBIĆ, akademik Nejednakopravan položaj potiče demografsku krizu, ugrožava konstitutivnost i dovodi u pitanje opstanak hrvatskoga naroda u BiH . .131 Dr. sc. Snježana MUSA Neki pokazatelji demografske statistike u BiH . .147 Akademik Vlado MAJSTOROVIĆ, prof. dr. sc. Modeli sustava financiranja visokog obrazovanja u zemljama Europske unije i Bosni i Hercegovini . .173 Marko IVANKOVIĆ, Ivan JURILJ Uloga obiteljskih poljoprivrednih gospodarstava (OPG-a) u razvitku ruralnih područja i sprječavanju depopulacije sela . 187 Prof. dr. sc. Mirko GRUJIĆ Starenje hrvatskoga naroda u Bosni i Hercegovini i pad nataliteta kao medicinski i socijalni problem . 205 Ivan ANĐELIĆ Demografska kretanja u općini Konjic od prvoga službenog popisa u vrijeme austrougarske uprave do posljednjeg popisa 2013..........................208 Milan VEGO Važnost medijskog sustava za opstojnost Hrvata u BiH......................218 Ljubo ŠIMIĆ, Josip ŠIMIĆ Značaj osnivanja visokoobrazovnih institucija biomedicinskih znanosti na Sveučilištu u Mostaru . 227 Ivan CVITKOVIĆ Jedan sociologijski pogled na Hrvate u Bosni i Hercegovini . 235 Dr. sc. Stiepo ANDRIJIĆ, akademik; Dr. sc. Mira PEŠIĆ ANDRIJIĆ, izvanred. prof. Povrat otete imovine – bitan čimbenik povratka i opstanka . .249 Zijad DURAKOVIĆ i Zdenko OSTOJIĆ Zdravstveni vidovi starenja pučanstva....................................256 Dr. Mira ŠUNJIĆ-BEUS, prof. emeritus; Dr. Danijela MARTINOVIĆ, izvanred. prof. Prijedlog modela financiranja visokog obrazovanja u Bosni i Hercegovini . .265 Demografska kriza hrvatskoga naroda u Bosni i Hercegovini Stjepan ŠTERC1, Mirjana MILIĆEVIĆ 2, Nevenko HERCEG3 Revitalizacijski potencijal hrvatskoga naroda IZVOD Demografska problematika postaje, sa svakim novim pokazateljem koji uslijedi, pitanje opstanka hrvatskoga naroda u doglednoj budućnosti, bez obzira iznesu li službene dr- žavne statistike podatke za Hrvatsku, Bosnu i Hercegovinu ili susjedne zemlje u kojima su Hrvati manjinski narod. Depopulacija, prirodni pad, negativna migracijska bilanca, izrazito duboka starost ukupne populacije i izumiranje, osnovna su demografska obi- lježja, a negativni su trendovi neumoljivi i bez ozbiljnije mogućnosti zaustavljanja, dok je promjena njihova smjera kratkoročno, bez ozbiljnije revitalizacijske koncepcije, gotovo nemoguća. Znali smo to i prije, često upozoravali, pisali radove, držali predavanja, podi- zali glas…ali se on nije čuo ili nije želio čuti u političkoj svakodnevnici opterećenoj, kako se uvijek objašnjavalo „važnijim problemima”. Nema važnijih problema od demograf- skih ili izravnije od demografskog opstanka hrvatskog naroda – ma gdje on obitavao. Ključne riječi: hrvatski, narod, potencijal, iseljeništvo, revitalizacija, opstanak 1. UVOD Demografsko je izumiranje hrvatska objektivna stvarnost u Hrvatskoj i Bosni i Hercegovi- ni, uvjetovano dugotrajnim prirodnim padom i razornim egzodusom koji traje u valovima desetljećima, a čijeg smo intenziviranja upravo svjedoci. Ovaj put iseljavaju, u pravilu, mladi i obrazovani ljudi, nositelji hrvatske budućnosti, inovacija i razvojnih koncepcija pa je time destrukcijska snaga recentnog iseljavanja posebno razorna na sve demografske 1 STJEPAN ŠTERC, Geografski odsjek PMF-a Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, [email protected] 2 MIRJANA MILIĆEVIĆ, Fakultet prirodoslovno-matematičkih i odgojnih znanosti, Sveučilište u Mosta- ru, [email protected] 3 NEVENKO HERCEG, Fakultet prirodoslovno-matematičkih i odgojnih znanosti, Sveučilište u Mosta- ru, [email protected] Motrišta br. 93-94, časopis za kulturu, znanost i društvena pitanja | 7 strukture i procese. Svakim novim pokazateljem koji nam proslijedi službena statistika, potvrđuju se pretpostavke po kojima sve to izravno utječe na gospodarski, društveni, pro- storni i svaki drugi razvoj i ugrožava opstanak hrvatskoga naroda u doglednoj budućno- sti. Procjene pak temeljene na statistikama zemalja useljavanja stanovništva, bez obzira iznesu li službene statistike tih zemalja podatke za Hrvatske ili Bosnu i Hercegovinu, po- kazuju još goru situaciju. Zapravo je cijela demografska slika puno negativnija, nego što ju demografi već niz godina najavljuju. Svi su trendovi i pokazatelji negativni, a depopu- lacija i prirodni pad ukupnog stanovništva, negativna vanjska migracijska bilanca, izrazito duboka starost ukupne populacije i izumiranje, osnovna su demografska obilježja. Nega- tivni su procesi neumoljivi i neće se zaustaviti sami od sebe bez ozbiljnijeg razumijevanja i prihvaćanja problematike, dok je kratkoročna promjena njihova smjera, bez ozbiljnije revitalizacijske koncepcije i intervencije, malo vjerojatna. Nije to nikakva nepoznanica jer se to zna već duže vrijeme kroz stalna upozorenja, pisane radove, održana predavanja, kroz rasprave, podizanje glasa…Ali se sve to nije čulo ili nije željelo čuti u političkoj sva- kodnevnici vođenoj osobnim i nevažnim interesima, ne shvaćajući kako nema važnije problematike od demografske ili vrlo izravno – od demografskog opstanka hrvatskog naroda, ma gdje on obitavao. Stanovništvo, populacija, žiteljstvo, ljudski resurs, ljudski potencijal…ili kako najvažniji razvojni faktor društva, gospodarstva, prostora, političkog sustava, ..., već zvali, pokretač je svega i zato bi demografska problematika trebala biti u temelju gospodarskog i ukupnog razvoja države i naroda. Stanovništvo je nositelj iden- titeta, nacionalnih i etničkih vrijednosti, nositelj povijesnih tradicijskih obilježja i osnova izvjesne budućnosti u prostornim identitetskim okvirima. Statistički nam podaci Hrvatske i Bosne i Hercegovine o demografskim obilježjima Hrvata naprosto nameću postavljanje revitalizacijskih modela, želi li se uopće planirati bilo kakav gospodarski, prostorni, regio- nalni, društveni, politički i ukupni razvoj unutar etničkog korpusa ili nacionalnih (državnih) okvira. Rezultati popisa stanovništva u Hrvatskoj 2011., u Bosni i Hercegovini 2013. godi- ne i susjednim zemljama (hrvatska manjinska populacija), i uvid u ukupnu među popisnu depopulaciju, prirodni pad stanovništva i fertilni kontingent ženske populacije, potvrđuju nam kako revitalizacijski potencijal u obje domicilne populacije još uvijek postoji i postojat će još možda u idućih 5 – 10 godina. Manjinska pak populacija u susjednim zemljama nema više takav potencijal, a iseljeničkoj europskoj i prekomorskoj hrvatskoj populaciji revitalizacijski potencijal s recentnim intenzivnim iseljavanjem mladog stanovništva raste. Međutim, ništa se neće dogoditi samo po sebi, i bez ozbiljnijih sustavnih mjera demo- grafski će se slom samo produbljivati i izravno negativno utjecati na gospodarski i ukupni razvoj. Zato je bitno shvatiti kako demografska
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