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PT. Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk. Strong Stock Call PT. Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk. 16 October 2018 ZINCronitation Stupendously Strong Buy We recommend a Strong Buy for ZINC in our Stock Call with a 12mo target price at Price (15/10) IDR 1,640 IDR 2,700; still has an upside potential of 64.6%. The main catalysts of our recom- Target Price IDR 2,700 mendation are 1) ZINC evolution into a major player in non-ferrous and precious Ticker ZINC metals, 2) ZINC expansion plan of doubling its capacity and 3) ZINC smelters busi- Industry Base metal ness plan. Danny Eugene A major player in non-ferrous & precious metal. ZINC evolved from just an iron ore [email protected] mining company, then started mining galena and now it starts producing zinc, lead and silver in the form of concentrates. The future plan of ZINC products will be in the form of ingots as it finished its lead and zinc smelter. Composition of its mineral is 65% 2,000 1,800 zinc & 35% lead. 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Production doubling capacity. ZINC management plans to increase their ore produc- 600 tion capacity to 600,000 tons per year in 2019-2020 from the current 360,000 tons per 400 200 year. This capacity building is carried out through two strategies; 1) increased IPPKH - permit to 1,519 ha from previous 390 ha and 2) completion of the second floatation plant with a new capacity of 2,500 tons per day. Total capacity of the ZINC floatation plant increased to 4,000 tons per day. Company Description: New lead and zinc smelters. The next important step is to produce minerals in ingot ZINC is a mining & trading company, focusing on form. Lead smelter plans to start operating in 4Q 2018 or no later than 1Q 2019 under 3 major products: zinc, lead & silver. It has a PT. Kapuas Prima Citra, with a total production capacity of 20,000 tons ingots per mining licence (IUP) for 5,569 Ha located at Bin- year. The zinc smelter is projected to be completed and can be operational by the end tang Mengalih Village, Belantikan Raya Sub- of 2020 with a total capacity of 30,000 tons ingots per year, which will be operated district, Lamandau Regency, Central Kalimantan. under PT. Kobar Lamandau Mineral. The next development ZINC will complete the smelter and will export in the form of ingots. In addition ZINC will also conduct underground Valuation & Recommendation. Using the Discounted Cash Flow model, we set a fair mining. value for ZINC at IDR 2,700 per share. The assumption that we use in this valuation is cost of capital (WACC) of 7.8% and terminal growth of 3.8%. We also do sensitivity analysis using the WACC range between 7.4% to 8.2% and the range of terminal growth between 3.4% to 4.2%. From the results of this analyst sensitivity we get the ZINC fair value range between IDR 2,220 to IDR 3,420. By comparing the closing price of ZINC on Monday (15/10) at IDR 1,640 level, we see Stock Data an upside potential of 64.6% in the next 12 months. Therefore we recommend a 52-week Range (IDR) 1,870 | 238 Strong Buy for ZINC. Mkt Cap (IDR tn) 8.3 JCI Weight 0.13% Shares O/S (bn) 5.1 Shares Float 20.8% YTD Change +10.1% Share Holders: FY16 FY17 FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F PT. Sarana Inti Selaras 21.36% Revenue (IDR tn) 138 436 889 1,561 2,390 3,179 Sim Antony 15.13% Profit before income tax (IDR bn) (31) 66 281 432 759 1,082 Net income (IDR mn) (35) 45 233 361 637 911 Kioe Nata 13.05% EPS (IDR) (6.9) 9.0 46.1 71.4 126.2 180.3 Budi Mulio Utomo 10.54% BV (IDR) 29.1 94.8 131.7 188.9 289.8 434.1 Haroen Soedjatmiko 9.57% Revenue growth (%) -56.0% 215.2% 103.9% 75.6% 53.1% 33.0% Net Income growth (%) 99.4% -229.5% 415.1% 54.7% 76.7% 42.9% William 9.56% Current ratio (X) 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 Public/Others (<5%) 20.34% Debt-to-equity (X) 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 ROE (%) -23.8% 9.4% 35.0% 37.8% 43.5% 41.5% P/E (X) (390.3) 301.4 58.5 37.8 21.4 15.0 P/BV (X) 92.8 28.5 20.5 14.3 9.3 6.2 Source : Bloomberg, MCS Research I. INVESTMENT THESIS I.1. Evolution into a major player in non-ferrous & precious metal From an iron ore player into a One of the most interesting things to invest in PT. Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk. (ZINC) is the major non-ferrous and precious development and plan of the Company from only iron ore players in 2008 to become a metal ... major player in the non-ferrous and precious metal business in 2022. The Company was established in 2005 and began to conduct iron ore (Fe) mining in 2008 to 2014. In 2015 the Company began producing Galena (PbS) and in 2017 began to produce zinc concentrate (Zn), lead (Pb) and silver (Ag ) ... would enter into smelter In accordance with Government regulations, particularly through the Ministry of Energy business, both lead and zinc. and Mineral Resources, the Company's management decided to enter the smelter business so that the Company could easily export their concentrate products. At the end of 2018 (3Q or 4Q) the lead smelter is planned to begin operating under PT. Kapuas Prima Citra, in which the Company owns 30% of the shares while the remaining 70% is owned by PT. Indonesia Royal Resources. The Company's second smelter, the zinc smelter, is currently under construction and is expected to be operational by the end of 2020 under PT. Kobar Lamandau Mineral. Currently PT. Kobar Lamandau Mineral is not under the Company's structure but has the same controlling shareholder as the Company. The company has now entered into a partnership with Merlion Resources Holding Limited to acquire the zinc smelter from PT. Kabar Lamandau Mineral with a transaction value of USD 30 million. Picture 1. ZINC Products Evolution Source: Company We have discussions with management regarding the Company's milestones. Basically From iron ore, to Galena, to zinc, these milestones can be divided into three major parts, namely: lead and silver; both in concentrate and ingots ... Before 2014: at this time the Company's main product was iron ore. 2014-2016: at this time the Company began selling Galena (PbS). 2017 going forward: the company will focus on the production and sale of zinc (Zn), lead (Pb) and silver (Ag) concentrates. Then when the smelter is finished and ready for production, the Company's sales will be in the form of ingots. ... input production capaticty Currently the Company's input ore production capacity is 360 thousand tons per year and expand to 947 thousand tons per will be increased to 600 thousand tons per year in 2019 and 947 thousand tons per year year. in 2020. With such input capacity, we project that the Company is able to produce zinc concentrate up to 119 thousand tons per year, lead to 64 thousand tons per year and silver up to 3.7 million t.oz per year. In our production model, we assume in 2018 would produce 36,000 ton zinc, 19,000 ton Growth in concentrate lead and 1.1 million t.oz silver all in concentrate. And in 2021 we assume a production production capacity in zinc, lead growth in all products which zinc production would be 119,000 ton, lead 64,000 ton and and silver ... silver should be around 3.7 million t.oz. What makes it interesting in those number are: 1) ZINC still has an upside potential which ... yet still have room to growth it has not deplete it capacity, and 2) it has a CAGR around 50% between 2018 to 2021 and higher valuation matrix ... which indicating ZINC is actually a high growth company (CAGR for zinc 48.9%, lead 49.9% & silver 49.8%). In this case, we can safely assume a higher valuation matrix compare to its competitor in term of relative valuation and applying a higher than average terminal growth (in this case 6.3% of terminal growth). ... by expanding exploration area How then we ask ZINC could manage to service its high production growth? In the later and second Floatation Plant. part of this report we will discuss several key agenda to boosting mineral production up to ingots. One of the key agenda is to expand its exploitation and exploration area to 1,500 ha from current area of 390 ha. Another is to operate its 2nd Line Floatation Plant in 4Q 2018. Graph 1. Zinc Production Forecast Zinc Concentrate 130 75% 67% 110 119 65% 50% 55% 90 90 45% 70 34% 35% 50 60 20% 25% 30 36 15% 10 5% FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F Production (000 ton) Utilization (%) Source: Company, MCS Research Graph 2. Lead Production Forecast Lead Concentrate 70 80% 67% 60 64 70% 60% 50 50% 48 50% 40 34% 40% 30 32 30% 20% 20 20% 19 10 10% FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F Production (000 ton) Utilization (%) Source: Company, MCS Research Graph 3. Silver Production Forecast Silver Concentrate 4.0 120% 108% 110% 3.5 3.7 100% 3.0 81% 90% 80% 2.5 2.8 70% 2.0 54% 60% 1.9 50% 1.5 32% 40% 1.1 1.0 30% FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F Source: Company, MCS Production (mn t.oz) Utilization (%) Research I.2.
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