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Phillip Securities Research PHILLIPPHILLIP SECURITIES SECURITIES RESEARCH Equity Report RESEARCH HongKong June 20, 2011 Geely (0175.HK) Zhang Jing — Embark on a new phase of “Strategic Transformation” Research Analyst (8621) 63512937-104 Summary FAX(8621) 6091115 Due to significant increase in sales, Geely’s FY2010 revenue grew [email protected] by 43% yoy to RMB 20.1 billion. Net profit rose 16% yoy to 1.55 Recommendation billion. Higher-priced models like “Vision”, “EC7” and “SC7”, Hold accounted for 46% of the Group’s total sales volume in 2010, compared with only 22% in 2009, reflecting the initial success Last call: Buy achieved by its “Multi-brand Strategy”. As a result, Geely’s Last TP: 4.16 ex-factory average sales price improved by 12% in 2010. Price We forecast its net profit in FY2011 and FY2012 to RMB1.69billion Current close : HK$2.76 12-month TP : HK$3.13 and RMB2.24billion, EPS of HK$0.25 and HK$0.32. Share We give 12month TP of HK$3.13 on 12.5x and 10x P/E of 2011 MV (HK$m) 20,571 and 2012E EPS respectively, 13% higher than the close, rating H shares issued (m) 7,441 52wk highest/lowest 5.16/2.29 Hold. (HK$) Main shareholder Li Shufu Float ratio 42.02% 股价表现 FY2010 results missed Due to significant increase in sales, Geely’s FY2010 revenue grew by 43% yoy to RMB 20.1 billion. Net profit rose 16% yoy to 1.55 billion . Diluted EPS stood 0.172 yuan, up 3% yoy with 0.023 yuan of DPS suggested (HKD 0.026). The result was a little below our forecast because the Company booked the recognition of share based payment to employees of 273 million, and if excluding it, the underlying profit rose by 38% yoy to 1.64 billion. Data source: AASTOCK Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 Figure 1 View of FY2010 Result Data source: Company reports ，Phillip Securities Sales beat targets Geely has driven its strategy transformation since 2008 aiming to middle and high end market from the low end. Among its three new brands, Gleagle consists of fas hionable models for youth with the first model of Geely Panda. While Emgrand targets to popular models mainly of high end commercial and home models. Shanghai Englon aims at middle and high end market with classic models, including A0, A class models. Geel y sold 415,843 units for the whole year of 2010, up 27% yoy from 2009, in line with the overall growth in China’s sedan market during the same period, exceeding its target of 400,000 units. Higher-priced models like “Vision”, “EC7” and “SC7”, accounted for 46% of the Group’s total sales volume in 2010, compared with only 22% in 2009. New brand development run smoothly: the sales of Emgrand 「E7 」 「 」 and Shanghai Englon SC7 went up from 10198 units and 8363 units in 2009 to 71360 units and 53124 units respectively in 2010. In the same time, the old and low-class brand Merrie and Maple declined as the management expected. 2 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 Figure 2 Product Mix 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2010 2009 others 7098 41020 Geely Panda 40588 28500 Free Cruiser 95189 110700 SC7 53124 8363 Geely Kingkong 85063 28500 Vision 63421 52702 Emgrand 71360 10198 Data source: Company reports ，Phillip Securities ASP went up by 12% In 2010, the Company launched five new models incl uding EC8 large size sedans, GX2 hatchback, and SC5-RV. Amongst which, EC8 which are retailing at between RMB76000 to RMB160000, received the best market response. As a result of the shift of the Geely’s sales from low-priced models like “Maple” and “Free Cruiser” to higher-priced models like “EC7” and “SC7”, and the new addition of more high-priced models like EC8 series of large size sedans in the Geely’s product line, its ex-factory average sales price improved significantly in 2010, rising 12% to RMB45000 level during 2010. The gross profit margin improved slightly by 0.3 ppt to 18.4%, helped by better product mix and economies of scales, below our forecast, reflecting the cost pressure intensified during 2010H2 due to higher inflation in China and rising commodities prices during 2010. 3 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 In addition, the proportion of admin expense and sales expense to revenue increased from 9.2% in 2009 to 10.5% in 2010 due to the start-up cost for two new plants in Jinan and Chengdu and the addition expenses related to the development of three new product brands. Figure 3 Geely’s ASP 50000 ASP(RMB/unit) 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2007 2008H 2008 2009H 2009 2010H 2010 Data source: Company reports ，Phillip Securities Sales rose 11% in the first five months of 2011 The Company has set a sales target for 2011 of 480,000 units, an increase of about 16 percent over 2010 , much less than 23 percent of last year, showing the Company’s caution on China car market of 2011. In May 2011, Geely sold 31107 units, up 0.2% yoy , but down 10.9% from April 2011. The total sales volume in the first five months of 2011 wa s 183707 units, up 10.5% yoy and achieving 38.3% of the full year sales volume target of 480,000 units of vehicles in 2011. It is worthwhile to note that the export of Geely jumped by 131% ypy to 10396 units in the first five months of 2011 as the overseas market start to picking up recently. From the latest statistics, the prices of the main raw material showed a downward trend and the WTI set back after the high point in April, which will ease the industry cost pressures. We believe that the decline of demand for China auto market already came to an end, but it is unlikely to duplicate the surprised growth ratio. We think Geely’s target is conformed to the actual situation and expected to be achieved. 4 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 Figure 4 Monthly Sales of Geely 45,000 2009 2010 2011 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data source: Company Website, Phillip Securities What next? a new phase of “Strategic Transformation ” By the end of 2010, Geely had established three independent distribution and service networks under its three product brands in China, totaling 1,038 shops, comprising 697 independent exclusive franchise stores and 341 4S stores. In 2011, the Company will continue to expand its sales and distribution network, focusing on county and village level market. With the capacity of new plants and a full range of sedan models equipped with Geely's self-developed automatic transmissions in 2011 , the Company is expected to sell more vehicles. In 2011, Geely plans to launch 6-8 new models, including: Gle agle Brand’s economy sedan “GC3” and mid-size sedan “GC7”; Enlgon Brand’s “SC5” sedan, “SX5” SUV and “SV5” MPV; Emgrand Brand’s mid-size SUV “EX7”. Figure 5 Geely’s Manufacture Base 5 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 Data source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Risk Economy decline would cut vehicle demand. Price war undermines its cost advantages. Rivals launching competitive models snatches low end market share. Whether Its new launched brands are widely acknowledged. Big funding demand may encounters bottleneck limiting its expanding. Valuation As the increasing sales volumes, the new Emgrand and Shanghai Englon will start to contribute for the Company's result. W e forecast its net profit in FY2011 and FY2012 to RMB1.69billion and RMB2.24 billion, EPS of HK$0.25 and HK$0.32. In valuation, given the Hong Kong listed peers are traded on 11x PE, we give 12month TP of HK$3.13 on 12.5x and 10x P/E of 2011 and 2012 E EPS respectively, 13% higher than the close, rating Hold. Figure 6 Peer Comparison Est P/E Best ROA ROE Ticker Name Mkt Cap Est P/E P/B (y+1) EV/ EBITDA LF % % Average 133562 10.1 8.3 7.7 2.0 7.29 20.21 175 HK GEELY 20570.7 10.7 8.8 6.2 2.2 6.35 19.01 VOW GR VOLKSWAG 626553 7.2 6.2 6.1 1.1 3.99 16.82 GM US GM 347911 7.1 5.5 2.8 1.6 4.93 19.85 489 HK DONGFENG 113388 8.5 7.5 4.1 2.5 11.19 33.90 7262 JP DAIHATSU 50920.7 N/A N/A 4.9 1.4 4.70 14.46 1211 HK BYD 48687.1 16.1 13.4 9.1 2.2 5.33 14.36 2238 HK GAGC 48077.8 8.3 6.7 3.8 1.6 9.04 22.21 1114 HK BRILLIANCE 35277.2 17.3 12.9 29.1 4.6 10.30 22.40 2333 HK Great Wall 29736.6 7.7 6.5 5.9 2.5 13.90 30.65 3808 HK SINOTRUK 14495.2 8.2 7.2 5.1 0.7 3.17 8.46 Data source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities 6 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 Financial Forecast RMB(mil) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E Profit&Loss Turnover 4,289 14,069 20,099 23,911 30,063 Cost of sales (3,638) (11,528) (16,400) (19,471) (24,414) Gross profit 651 2,541 3,700 4,440 5,649 Other income 358 432 839 985 1,062 Sales expense (220) (765) (1,190) (1,368) (1,662) Admin expense (283) (524) (1,196) (1,351) (1,518) Finance costs (61) (107) (245) (269) (298) Loss in Fair Price of Derivatives and negative goodwill 346 (16) - (5) (6) Profit attributable to Affiliated Companies 126 (10) (7) (10) (12) Profit before Tax 918 1,550 1,900 2,323 3,114 Tax (52) (231) (351) (427) (592) Profit for the Year 866 1,319 1,550 1,895 2,522 Loss and Profit of Minority 13 (136) (181) (208) (279) Net Profit 879 1,183 1,368 1,687 2,244 Per share data(yuan) EPS:(Basic) 0.15 0.171 0.186 0.227 0.302 EPS:(Diluted) 0.14 0.167 0.171 0.199 0.265 DPS 0.014 0.020 0.026 0.034 0.039 BVPS 0.65 0.99 1.07 1.28 1.38 Balance Sheet Total Assets 10,151 18,802 24,304 27,816 29,551 Cash&cash equivalent 889 4,498 4,393 5,129 5,782 Total Liabilities 5,368 11,706 15,226 16,947 17,814 Shareholders'funds 4,782 7,097 9,078 10,869 11,737 Valuation ratios P/E （x） 16.3 14.0 13.5 11.5 8.6 P/B （x） 3.6 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.7 Key ratios Gross margin 15.18% 18.06% 18.41% 18.57% 18.79% Dividend payout ratio 9.31% 11.85% 13.99% 15.00% 12.93% Data source: Company reports, Phillip Securities 7 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Geely （（（ 1 7 5 , H K ））） June, 20, 2011 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS BUY >15% upside from the current price HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price SELL >15% downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.
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