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Big Wheels Keep on Turning: Raising Target Price, Reiterate CL-Buy

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Big Wheels Keep on Turning: Raising Target Price, Reiterate CL-Buy November 11, 2016 ACTION Buy Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK) Return Potential: 25% Equity Research Big wheels keep on turning: Raising target price, reiterate CL-Buy Source of opportunity Investment Profile Our core thesis on Geely remains the same – an improving product pipeline Low High and reducing capacity bottlenecks driving higher volumes/margins. We still Growth Growth see empty spaces for Geely to grow its brand, particularly in small/mid-size Returns * Returns * SUVs and MPVs. We take a closer look at its new Lynk & Co. brand, where a Multiple Multiple ‘blue sky’ scenario could see volume potential of >1mn units p.a. by 2020E, Volatility Volatility Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th leading to 44% higher total sales for Geely listco vs. our base case. We also Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK) examine Geely’s potential to optimize its platforms, powertrains and capacity. Asia Pacific Autos & Autoparts Peer Group Average Our 2017E EPS is 21% ahead of consensus and we reiterate our Buy (on * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the Conviction List) with a revised HK$10.15 12m TP implying 25% upside. disclosure section of this document. Catalyst Key data Current Price (HK$) 8.15 (1) Continuous new product launches: Sub-compact SUV, MPV, and Lynk & Co. 12 month price target (HK$) 10.15 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 71,736.2 / 9,248.2 models in 2017E; (2) High monthly volume likely in November/December Foreign ownership (%) -- upon removal of capacity bottleneck (we expect Boyue/GL monthly volume to reach 20k/10k units in 1Q17E); (3) Better visibility on the new Lynk & Co. 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EPS (Rmb) New 0.26 0.47 0.78 0.98 product (potential introduction of BMA/SPA production architecture from EPS revision (%) 0.0 0.0 (1.0) (0.4) Volvo), production and dealer development plan; and (4) Strong FY16 result EPS growth (%) 58.0 81.9 67.0 25.7 EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 0.26 0.47 0.78 0.98 (March 2017). P/E (X) 11.7 15.3 9.1 7.3 P/B (X) 1.4 2.7 2.2 1.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 6.7 9.9 5.9 4.5 Valuation Dividend yield (%) 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.7 ROE (%) 12.3 19.3 26.3 26.2 Our 2016E-18E EPS are 2%/21%/22% above Bloomberg consensus and we CROCI (%) 20.4 20.7 27.7 26.9 believe consensus numbers could move up as the aforementioned catalysts start to get incorporated by the market. We maintain our valuation premium Price performance chart 10 11,500 at 35%, reflecting the high growth potential beyond 2018E from its new SUV 9 11,000 models and Lynk & Co. products. We raise our 2017E P/B vs. 2019E ROE- 8 10,500 based 12m TP to HK$10.15 (from HK$9.16), after incorporating higher sector 7 10,000 valuations and rolling over from 2016E and 2018E respectively. Geely is 6 9,500 5 9,000 trading at 9.1X 2017E P/E and 2.2X 2017E P/B vs. peers at 10.8X/1.4X, 4 8,500 against an EPS CAGR of 56% in 2015-2018E vs. peers at 26%. 3 8,000 2 7,500 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Key risks Economic slowdown/policy change in China leading to sluggish growth in Geely Automobile Holdings (L) Hang Seng China Ent. Index (R) the domestic low-end car market; higher price erosion on competition. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 49.8 122.7 111.1 Asia Pacific Buy List Rel. to Hang Seng China Ent. Index 46.2 98.0 128.1 Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 11/10/2016 close. Coverage View: Neutral Yipeng Yang +86(10)6627-3189 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Yuqian Ding covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +86(10)6627-3327 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Longjin Li affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider +65-6654-5141 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research November 11, 2016 Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK) Geely Automobile Holdings: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Total revenue 30,138.3 52,261.4 73,356.4 89,687.5 Cash & equivalents 9,166.9 7,018.3 6,045.0 7,207.0 Cost of goods sold (23,524.9) (40,986.9) (55,634.3) (67,794.2) Accounts receivable 11,796.8 16,876.8 23,689.0 28,962.8 SG&A (3,805.4) (5,553.6) (7,685.2) (9,127.1) Inventory 1,226.2 2,360.9 3,204.6 3,905.1 R&D (258.8) (448.7) (629.8) (770.1) Other current assets 3,157.9 3,789.5 3,979.0 4,177.9 Other operating profit/(expense) 94.1 181.3 254.4 400.8 Total current assets 25,347.9 30,045.5 36,917.6 44,252.8 EBITDA 2,902.0 5,902.2 10,291.3 13,167.0 Net PP&E 8,034.4 9,034.6 11,533.9 13,602.8 Depreciation & amortization (1,142.7) (1,613.6) (2,050.0) (2,505.7) Net intangibles 5,262.8 7,783.0 10,202.6 11,906.1 EBIT 1,759.3 4,288.6 8,241.3 10,661.3 Total investments 2,015.5 2,029.7 2,044.0 2,058.2 Interest income 96.9 62.7 48.0 41.3 Other long-term assets 1,631.9 2,230.8 2,681.0 2,979.4 Interest expense (103.3) (102.6) (138.7) (161.9) Total assets 42,292.5 51,123.7 63,379.1 74,799.4 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 41.5 14.2 14.2 14.2 Others 1,080.4 927.5 544.3 462.6 Accounts payable 11,204.9 15,591.8 20,401.7 23,932.1 Pretax profits 2,874.8 5,190.5 8,709.2 11,017.6 Short-term debt 0.0 500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 Income tax (586.1) (1,029.5) (1,772.8) (2,298.5) Other current liabilities 9,244.3 9,474.5 9,816.8 10,036.4 Minorities (28.1) (49.0) (70.1) (86.0) Total current liabilities 20,449.3 25,566.2 31,718.5 35,468.5 Long-term debt 1,928.9 1,978.9 1,978.9 1,978.9 Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,260.5 4,112.0 6,866.3 8,633.0 Other long-term liabilities 174.8 175.3 175.8 175.8 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 2,103.7 2,154.2 2,154.7 2,154.7 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 2,260.5 4,112.0 6,866.3 8,633.0 Total liabilities 22,552.9 27,720.4 33,873.1 37,623.2 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 2,260.5 4,112.0 6,866.3 8,633.0 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 19,523.8 23,124.8 29,137.7 36,697.7 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.26 0.47 0.78 0.98 Minority interest 215.7 278.5 368.2 478.5 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.26 0.47 0.78 0.98 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.26 0.47 0.78 0.98 Total liabilities & equity 42,292.5 51,123.7 63,379.1 74,799.4 DPS (Rmb) 0.030.060.100.12 Dividend payout ratio (%) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 BVPS (Rmb) 2.22 2.63 3.31 4.17 Free cash flow yield (%) 13.9 (6.0) (2.3) 3.1 Growth & margins (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Ratios 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Sales growth 38.6 73.4 40.4 22.3 CROCI (%) 20.4 20.7 27.7 26.9 EBITDA growth 57.9 103.4 74.4 27.9 ROE (%) 12.3 19.3 26.3 26.2 EBIT growth 82.5 143.8 92.2 29.4 ROA (%) 5.7 8.8 12.0 12.5 Net income growth 58.0 81.9 67.0 25.7 ROACE (%) 18.1 26.7 30.6 29.2 EPS growth 58.0 81.9 67.0 25.7 Inventory days 22.1 16.0 18.3 19.1 Gross margin 21.9 21.6 24.2 24.4 Receivables days 149.0 100.1 100.9 107.1 EBITDA margin 9.6 11.3 14.0 14.7 Payable days 173.2 119.3 118.1 119.3 EBIT margin 5.8 8.2 11.2 11.9 Net debt/equity (%) (36.7) (19.4) (8.7) (10.0) Interest cover - EBIT (X) 273.2 107.5 90.9 88.4 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,260.5 4,112.0 6,866.3 8,633.0 D&A add-back 1,142.7 1,613.6 2,050.0 2,505.7 P/E (analyst) (X) 11.7 15.3 9.1 7.3 Minorities interests add-back 28.1 49.0 70.1 86.0 P/B (X) 1.4 2.7 2.2 1.7 Net (inc)/dec working capital 3,469.7 (1,827.8) (2,846.0) (2,443.8) EV/EBITDA (X) 6.7 9.9 5.9 4.5 Other operating cash flow 507.8 (1,244.3) (653.4) (511.6) EV/GCI (X) 1.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 Cash flow from operations 7,408.8 2,702.5 5,486.9 8,269.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.7 Capital expenditures (3,708.7) (6,480.4) (6,968.9) (6,278.1) Acquisitions (450.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 0.0 1,346.5 0.0 0.0 Others (374.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (4,534.4) (5,133.9) (6,968.9) (6,278.1) Dividends paid (common & pref) (173.8) (281.0) (511.1) (853.4) Inc/(dec) in debt (691.6) 550.0 1,000.0 0.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows (45.2) 13.8 19.7 24.2 Cash flow from financing (910.7) 282.8 508.6 (829.2) Total cash flow 1,963.8 (2,148.6) (973.3) 1,162.1 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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