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Tech Report 27 Estuaries BN.Indd Technical Report No. 27 Predicting change in condition of estuaries in Tasmania: A description of the Landscape Logic Bayesian network November 2010 Published by Landscape Logic, Hobart Tasmania, September 2010. This publication is available for download as a PDF from www.landscapelogicproducts.org.au Cover photo: A Google Earth view of the Duck River estuary, north-west Tasmania. Preferred citation: Pollino CA (2010) Predicting change in condition of estuaries in Tasmania: A description of the Landscape Logic Bayesian network. Landscape Logic Technical Report No. 27, Hobart. Contact: Dr Carmel Pollino, Australian National University, [email protected] Landscape Logic advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, Landscape Logic (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. ISBN LANDSCAPE LOGIC is a research hub under the Commonwealth Environmental Research Facilities scheme, managed by the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. It is a partnership between: • six regional organisations – the North Central, North East & Goulburn–Broken Catchment Management Authorities in Victoria and the North, South and Cradle Coast Natural Resource Management organisations in Tasmania; • five research institutions – University of Tasmania, Australian National University, RMIT University, Charles Sturt University and NORTH CENTRAL Catchment Management CSIRO; and Authority • state land management agencies in Tasmania and Victoria – the Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries & Water, Forestry Tasmania and the Victorian Department of Sustainability & Environment. The purpose of Landscape Logic is to work in partnership with regional natural resource managers to develop decision-making approaches that improve the effectiveness of environmental management. Landscape Logic aims to: 1. Develop better ways to organise existing knowledge and assumptions about links between land and water management and environmental outcomes. 2. Improve our understanding of the links between land management and environmental outcomes through historical studies of private and public investment into water quality and native vegetation condition. 2 Landscape Logic Technical Report No. 27 Predicting change in condition of estuaries in Tasmania: A description of the Landscape Logic Bayesian network Carmel A. Pollino, Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, The Australian National University Summary There are approximately 111 estuaries of moderate to large size on the Tasmanian mainland and the Bass Straight islands (Edgar et al 1999). Tasmania contains some of the most pristine estuaries in Australia (DEWHA 2000), which come in a variety of types including coastal inlets, drowned river valleys, barrier estuaries, river estuaries and coastal lagoons (DPIW 2009). The diversity in estuaries is largely driven by differences in ‘wave energy and rainfall between the east and west coasts, a greater tidal range on the north coast and variation in local geomorphology’ (RPDC 2006). Small tidal ranges, high rainfall and high runoff are characteristic of catchments in the west, northwest and south, while those in the east and northeast are relatively much drier and possess greater tidal ranges (Edgar et al 1999). The Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries and Water (DPIW) have classified Tasmanian estuaries into 5 general types based on geomorphology (DPIW 2009): Coastal Inlets (e.g. West Inlet, East Inlet): Enclosed marine embayments with wide mouths that lack large riverine inputs but have detectable reduction in salinity from small creeks after heavy rainfall. Coastal inlets are generally well mixed and can be hypersaline in summer. Drowned River Valleys (e.g. Tamar Estuary, Derwent Estuary, Huon Estuary): Estuaries with wide river mouths, rocky headlands and deep channels. These estuaries can be stratified. Barrier (or Bar) Estuaries: Estuaries with sandbars across their mouths. These estuaries can be per- manently-open (e.g. Prosser River, Ansons Bay) or seasonally-closed (e.g. Wanderer Estuary, Browns River) and can be stratified. River Estuaries (e.g. Don River, Pieman River): Estuaries where fast flowing rivers discharge into the sea with little bar or lagoon development and poor water mixing. Coastal Lagoons (e.g. Grants Lagoon, Cameron Inlet): Saline lagoons with irregular input and infre- quent openings to the sea. Incursion by seawater generally occurs only after extreme runoff events or tidal or artificial breaching of the sand barrier. Can be hypersaline during summer periods. Estuarine environments are some of the most productive on earth, producing more organic matter than equivalent forest, grassland or agricultural areas (RPDC 2006). Tasmania’s estuaries provide an important shelter for many birds, fish and macrofauna, particularly during breeding and spawning. Most of the major cities and towns in Tasmania are situated on estuaries, utilising the significant cul- tural values offered by the water bodies, including fishing, swimming, tourism and aquaculture (DPIW 2009). Many commercially viable fish species depend on Tasmania’s estuaries at some point during their life cycle (RPDC 2006). In addition, many of Tasmania’s remaining aboriginal heritage sites are located along the shoreline of the states estuaries (DPIW 2009). Human intervention in and around Tasmania’s estuaries has caused significant deterioration of water quality, increased siltation and subsequent habitat loss (DPIW 2009). The unhealthiest of Tasmania’s estu- aries, relative to the rest of the state, tend to be located along the north coast with ‘elevated turbidity, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, particularly Duck Bay and Don River estuaries’ (Murphy et al 2003). Similarly, high nitrogen or chlorophyll concentrations were revealed in the north-east in Boobyalla Inlet, Little Musselroe River and Ansons Bay (Murphy et al 2003) making them susceptible to eutrophica- tion. Estuaries in the rest of the state are generally healthy, with the exceptions of Browns and Meredith River, and on occasion Douglas River (Murphy et al 2003). The presence of introduced species is a threat to many Tasmanian estuaries, as they can significantly alter habitat and alter the balance with these fragile marine environments (RPDC 2006). Vertical salinity stratification is a significant issue in Tasmanian estuaries, distinctly in river estuaries such as the large, deep estuaries on the west coast (Arthur and Pieman) and small, east coast river estu- aries (Douglas, Meredith, Browns and Catamaran) (Murphy et al 2003). Vertical stratification tends not to be an issue in open, marine inlets or shallow, low salinity estuaries (Murphy et al 2003). Predicting change in condition of estuaries in Tasmania 3 Edgar et al. (1999) recognised nine major indirect threats to the ecosystem structure and function of Tasmanian estuaries. These were (i) increased siltation from land clearance and urban and rural runoff, (ii) increased nutrient loads from sewage and agricultural fertilisers, (iii) urban effluent, (iv) modifica- tion of water flow through dams and weirs, (v) marine farms, (vi) foreshore development and dredging, (vii) acidification and heavy metal pollution, (viii) introduced marine pests, and (ix) long-term climate change. Poor condition estuaries include the (RPDC 2006): Derwent estuary which has heavy metal contamination, depressed dissolved oxygen and organi- cally enriched sediments. Tamar estuary which is under considerable pressure from human activities urban and agricultural sources; and Macquarie Harbour where heavy metals in the estuary are sourced from Mt Lyell copper mine. 4 Landscape Logic Technical Report No. 27 Contents Condition in Tasmanian estuaries 6 Description of the Tasmanian Estuary Model 9 Data Inputs 9 Model Outputs 9 Model behaviour 10 Sensitivity analysis by region 11 Predictions from Bayesian Network 18 References 19 Predicting change in condition of estuaries in Tasmania 5 Condition in Tasmanian estuaries Condition metrics have been calculated for many Modified: These estuaries are generally recog- Australian estuaries as part of the National Land nised and documented as having some problems and Water Resources Audit (NLWRA) conducted due to a complexity of impacts from within the in 2001. The NLWRA condition index was derived catchment, waterway and estuary. Remedial using physical characteristics (catchment natural works and activities for recovery may range from cover, land use, catchment hydrology, tidal regime, minor to substantial. floodplain, estuary land use) and estuarine ecol- Largely unmodified: These estuaries are gen- ogy, including pests and weeds, as documented in erally recognised and documented as being in (NLWRA 2001). The condition metrics are reported good condition, but with some catchment and on the OzCoast website (http://www.ozcoasts.org. estuary use. au/). Estuaries
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