Turkey Lake Feasibility Study

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Turkey Lake Feasibility Study A Comprehensive Solar Energy Power System for the Turkey Lake Service Plaza Contract #: BDK75-977-18 7 January 2010 Project Research Team Charles J. Kibert, Ph.D., P.E., Principal Investigator S.A. Sherif, Ph.D. Robert Ries, Ph.D. Edward Minchin, Ph.D., P.E. Russell Walters, Ph.D., P.E. Lauren Hertel Consultant Al Simpler, President, Simpler Solar, Inc. Research Assistants Kevin Priest Jason Sanders Sean Snowden Srikanth Madala Milind Gholap 01/07/2010 iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Florida Turnpike Enterprise (FTE) has the bold vision of maximizing the use of renewable energy in their operations and potentially supplying all the energy needs of their facilities via solar technologies. To determine the technical and financial feasibility of executing this vision, the FTE selected the Turkey Lake Service Plaza on the Florida Turnpike for a case study to explore this potential shift to renewable energy sources. A University of Florida research team collaborated with FTE and Florida Department of Transportation staff to examine contemporary solar technologies, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, for their potential to meet the energy needs of the Turkey Lake Service Plaza. The scope of the research included: 1. Evaluation of Solar Electric (PV), Solar Thermal (hot water), and Solar Lighting systems. 2. Assessment of the renewable energy generation potential of the Service Plaza. 3. Designing and planning of photovoltaic systems to determine the energy output. 4. Identification of innovative financing options. 5. Development of a marketing and education concept for the project. The research team concluded that by implementing the Net Zero Energy scenario, the annual electrical energy needs of all the facilities at the Turkey Lake Service Plaza could be met. The Net Zero Energy scenario is defined as meeting all the electrical energy needs of a facility over a year and requiring no monthly electrical utility payment. A Maximum Energy scenario would generate substantial excess electrical energy and possibly additional revenue. A Maximum Energy scenario is defined as installing photovoltaic systems in or on all available areas on the Turkey Lake Service Plaza, including noise walls on the northeast side of the Turnpike within one mile of the Plaza. The research team concluded that when all available areas for mounting photovoltaic systems were utilized, about 2 ½ times the Net Zero Energy scenario energy would be generated. There are two basic ownership options for both the Net Zero Energy and Maximum Energy scenarios: FTE Ownership or the Lease Option. The analysis of the financial feasibility found that if a private developer, defined as a utility or other company engaged in providing solar photovoltaic systems, partnered with FTE to install a Solar Photovoltaic system, it would be feasible for a system to be installed at no cost to the FTE, provided agreements regarding power purchase and other issues are successfully addressed. If the FTE were to own the photovoltaic systems installed at the Service Plaza, the revenue from the value of the energy generated, up to the actual energy consumed on a monthly basis, would be the major source of revenue to pay for the system. The capital cost of the system would be derived from a bond issue that would be paid back over a predetermined period of time. For the Net Zero Energy scenario and FTE ownership, a feasible PV system of about 3.8 megawatts (MW) of peak power would cost $20.4 million. With an annual energy value of about $523,000 and carbon mitigation valued at about $83,000, a 20-year bond of about $9.5 million 01/07/2010 v could be created. The study proceeded on the assumption that some revenue, about 25% of the total requirement, could be created through sponsorships. A total of $17.3 million of revenue based on a 20-year life cycle would be available, resulting in a shortfall of about $3.1 million that would have to be funded from FTE or FDOT resources. For the Maximum Energy scenario and FTE ownership, the system costs for a 9.15 MW system would be about $53.8 million. Based on an annual energy value of $1.3 million per year and annual carbon mitigation value of about $213,000, a 20-year bond valued at $24.4 million could be created. With 25% of the total cost being attributed to sponsorships, total funding of about $44.9 million could be made available, a shortfall of about $8.9 million dollars. The Lease Option assumes a developer such as a utility of other entity would fund the installation. Due to current tax policy, ARRA 2009 support, and other favorable conditions, the net cost is about breakeven for a 20 year life cycle, assuming bonus depreciation is available. This is true for both the Net Zero Energy scenario and Maximum Energy scenario. For the Net Zero Energy scenario the system cost is about $20.4 million with revenue of $20.1 million over a 20-year life cycle. For the Maximum Energy scenario, the cost of the system is about $53.8 million, with revenue of about $52.5 million. The analysis did use conservative assumptions with respect to systems cost. Each developer makes different assumptions on costs and return on investment and each has different buying power. For example, Florida Power & Light is developing several large solar installations around the state and their cost per peak watt is relatively low. Initial discussions with the development community indicates they are interested in pursuing the type of installation described here, preferably the Maximum Power scenario. The research team highly recommends the Turkey Lake Service Plaza be developed into a Solar Destination. It would be a location where someone could experience renewable energy firsthand by observing and interacting with various solar installations, including the large scale installation that would power the Turkey Lake Service Plaza. The marketing portion of this research defined objectives for a campaign, including public awareness of the project before, during, and after the construction of the solar installation. A Solar Walk showcasing innovations like solar umbrellas, solar trees, solar shades, solar electric vehicles, solar charging stations, solar artwork and solar sculptures could serve to stimulate public interest in solar technologies. Public and private sponsors should be included in the project to help promote solar energy as well. It was the conclusion of the marketing and education portion of this research that the Turkey Lake Service Plaza Solar Energy project could serve to greatly increase public awareness of solar technology, its applications to their homes and businesses, and how to finance solar installations. In conclusion, under present market conditions, with low equipment and construction costs, favorable tax advantages, ARRA 2009 support, and with a partnership between the FTE and a private developer could provide a route for financing either the Net Zero Energy or Maximum Energy scenarios. Timely decision making about installing the Turkey Lake Service Plaza solar power system is important because some of the financial options begin to expire at the end of 01/07/2010 vi 2009, while other options will expire at the end of 2010. A project at the Turkey Lake Service Plaza that implements this research has the potential to stimulate the transformation of Florida’s energy infrastructure. The research team’s conclusion is that installing a Solar Energy system at Turkey Lake Service Plaza would have multiple benefits for the state and its citizens and the likelihood of success is very high. 01/07/2010 vii TABLE OF CONTENTS page COVER PAGE................................................................................................................................. i TITLE SHEET ............................................................................................................................... iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... xi LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................1 2 SOLAR TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.............................................................................13 3 SYSTEM SELECTION AND DESIGN ALTERNATIVES ..................................................47 4 SITE ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES ...........................................................79 5 INNOVATIVE FINANCING OPTIONS ...............................................................................89 6 MARKETING AND EDUCATION .....................................................................................111 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................145 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................153 APPENDICES A SOLAR TECHNOLOGY REFERENCE MATERIALS ....................................................157 B SYSTEM SELECTION AND DESIGN ASSUMPTIONS .................................................159 C INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES ............................................................................................171 D INNOVATIVE FINANCING
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