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The Policy Drivers of Photovoltaic Industry Growth in California, Germany, and Japan

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The Policy Drivers of Photovoltaic Industry Growth in California, Germany, and Japan FREEBOOK AMBIENTE Biblioteca gratuita on line di Isabella Alloisio The Policy Drivers of Photovoltaic Industry Growth in California, Germany, and Japan PhD Thesis in International Law and Economics i DECLARATION FOR THE PhD THESIS The undersigned SURNAME ALLOISIO NAME ISABELLA Registration number 1288687 Thesis title: THE POLICY DRIVERS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY GROWTH IN CALIFORNIA, GERMANY, AND JAPAN PhD in INTERNATIONAL LAW AND ECONOMICS Cycle XXIII Candidate’s tutor ANGELO MARCELLO CARDANI Year of discussion 2011 ii DECLARES Under his responsibility: 1) that, according to the President’s decree of 28.12.2000, No. 445, mendacious declarations, falsifying records and the use of false records are punishable under the penal code and special laws, should any of these hypotheses prove true, all benefits included in this declaration and those of the temporary embargo are automatically forfeited from the beginning; 2) that the University has the obligation, according to art. 6, par. 11, Ministerial Decree of 30th April 1999 protocol no. 224/1999, to keep copy of the thesis on deposit at the Biblioteche Nazionali Centrali di Roma e Firenze, where consultation is permitted, unless there is a temporary embargo in order to protect the rights of external bodies and industrial/commercial exploitation of the thesis; 3) that the Servizio Biblioteca Bocconi will file the thesis in its ‘Archivio istituzionale ad accesso aperto’ and will permit on-line consultation of the complete text (except in cases of a temporary embargo); 4) that in order keep the thesis on file at Biblioteca Bocconi, the University requires that the thesis be delivered by the candidate to Società NORMADEC (acting on behalf of the University) by online procedure the contents of which must be unalterable and that NORMADEC will indicate in each footnote the following information: - thesis “The Policy Drivers of Photovoltaic Industry Growth in California, Germany, and Japan” ; - by ALLOISIO ISABELLA; - discussed at Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi – Milano in (year of discussion) 2011 ; - the thesis is protected by the regulations governing copyright (law of 22 April 1941, no. 633 and successive modifications). The exception is the right of Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi to reproduce the same for research and teaching purposes, quoting the source; - the thesis is subject to a temporary embargo for (indicate duration of the embargo) …24... months; iii 5) that the copy of the thesis deposited with NORMADEC by online procedure is identical to those handed in/sent to the Examiners and to any other copy deposited in the University offices on paper or electronic copy and, as a consequence, the University is absolved from any responsibility regarding errors, inaccuracy or omissions in the contents of the thesis; 6) that the contents and organization of the thesis is an original work carried out by the undersigned and does not in any way compromise the rights of third parties (law of 22 April 1941, no. 633 and successive integrations and modifications), including those regarding security of personal details; therefore the University is in any case absolved from any responsibility whatsoever, civil, administrative or penal and shall be exempt from any requests or claims from third parties; 7) that the thesis meets one of the temporary embargo hypotheses included in the declaration “TEMPORARY EMBARGO REQUEST OF THE PhD THESIS” undersigned elsewhere. Date ___30 January 2011__________ Signed (write name and surname) ISABELLA ALLOISIO v The Policy Drivers of Photovoltaic Industry Growth in California, Germany, and Japan Thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the academic degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Law and Economics (XXIII cycle). Isabella Alloisio (1288687) Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Milano Thesis Committee: Angelo M. Cardani, Department of Economics, Bocconi University (thesis advisor) Daniel A. Farber, School of Law, University of California Berkeley (thesis co-advisor) Annalisa D’Orazio, IEFE, Bocconi University vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am particularly grateful for comments I received at the University of California Berkeley from Dan Farber, Michael O’Hare, Steve Weissman, Dan Kammen, Severin Borenstein and Ryan Wiser at various stage of this work, and to all the PV companies’ managers that gave me the chance of one or more interviews. A special thank goes to IEFE, and especially to Clara Poletti who gave me the possibility to share my research period at Bocconi with other young and senior researchers. In particular, I am especially grateful to Annalisa D’Orazio and Arturo Lorenzoni, who suggested me ways to approach this study and were always available for useful suggestions. Furthermore, I would like to thank all the friends I met at the Berkeley International House, with whom I shared the common passion for research and academic knowledge, as well as a unique and rewarding life experience. Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to Andrea Di Blas, who has always been ready and willing to support me, even in the most difficult moments of the research and writing process. ix “. if we continue developing sources of renewable energy at our current average rate, we may indeed be doomed. But we won’t continue at this pace because there will be a distribution of success rates, with some technologies evolving faster than others. The technologies that do evolve faster will get more funding than the others, further accelerating the advances, while the below-average technologies will be abandoned. Therefore, the expected pace of progress today underestimates the true pace of progress in the future”. Excerpt from The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, by S. Savage (2009) xi CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1: DISCOVERY, START-UP, AND DEVELOPMENT OF PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY .............................................................................3 1.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................3 1.2 Solar Photovoltaics.................................................................................................................................................5 1.2.1 PV History ........................................................................................................................................................6 1.2.2 The Three Phases of Photovoltaic Development ...........................................................................................8 1.2.3 PV Design and Technology...........................................................................................................................11 1.2.4 Power Conversion Efficiency........................................................................................................................16 1.2.5 Energy Payback Time ....................................................................................................................................18 1.2.6 The PV Value Chain ......................................................................................................................................20 1.3 Concentrating Solar Power.................................................................................................................................21 1.3.1 CSP History ....................................................................................................................................................22 1.3.2 CSP Applications ...........................................................................................................................................23 1.3.2.1 Linear Concentrator Technology ..........................................................................................................23 1.3.2.2 Parabolic Dish Technology ...................................................................................................................25 1.3.2.3 Power Tower Systems............................................................................................................................26 1.3.3 The CSP Value Chain ....................................................................................................................................28 1.4 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................................29 CHAPTER 2: POLICIES AND MEASURES TO PROMOTE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY IN THE US AND CALIFORNIA, GERMANY, AND JAPAN ...........31 2.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................................................31 2.2 Solar Energy and Technology Policies in the United States ..........................................................................32 2.2.1 US Solar Technology Policy .........................................................................................................................33 2.2.1.1 Research and Development Tax Credit System...................................................................................38 2.2.1.2 Patent Law and Policy ...........................................................................................................................39 2.2.2 US Solar Energy Policy .................................................................................................................................42
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