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Overview of the Arkstorm Scenario OOvveerrvviieeww ooff tthhee kkSSttoorrmm SScceennaarriioo AARR Open File Report 2010-1312 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey This page intentionally left blank Overview of the Arkstorm Scenario Prepared for the U.S. Geological Survey Multihazards Demonstration Project Lucile Jones, Chief Scientist Dale Cox, Project Manager By Keith Porter18, Anne Wein17, Charles Alpers17, Allan Baez1, Patrick Barnard17, James Carter17, Alessandra Corsi7, James Costner20, Dale Cox17, Tapash Das14, Michael Dettinger17, James Done12, Charles Eadie8, Marcia Eymann5, Justin Ferris17, Prasad Gunturi20, Mimi Hughes13, Robert Jarrett17, Laurie Johnson10, Hanh Dam Le-Griffin16, David Mitchell11, Suzette Morman17, Paul Neiman13, Anna Olsen18, Suzanne Perry17, Geoffrey Plumlee17, Martin Ralph13, David Reynolds13, Adam Rose19, Kathleen Schaefer6, Julie Serakos20, William Siembieda4, Jonath n Stock17, David Strong17, Ian Sue Wing2, Alex Tang9, Pete Thomas20, Ken Topping15, and Chris Wills3. a 1 B.A. Risk Management 11 M-Cubed 2 Boston University 12 National Center for Atmospheric Research 3 California Geological Survey 13 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 4 California Polytechnic State University 14 Scripps Institute of Oceanography 5 Center for Sacramento History 15 Topping Associates International 6 Federal Emergency Management Agency 16 TTW, Inc. 7 Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas, Brazil 17 U.S. Geological Survey 8 Hamilton Swift Land Use and Development 18 University of Colorado at Boulder 9 L&T Consulting 19 University of Southern California 10 Laurie Johnson Consulting 20 Willis Group U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 2011 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Suggested citation: Porter, Keith, Wein, Anne, Alpers, Charles, Baez, Allan, Barnard, Patrick, Carter, James, Corsi, Alessandra, Costner, James, Cox, Dale, Das, Tapash, Dettinger, Michael, Done, James, Eadie, Charles, Eymann, Marcia, Ferris, Justin, Gunturi, Prasad, Hughes, Mimi, Jarrett, Robert, Johnson, Laurie, Dam Le-Griffin, Hanh, Mitchell, David, Morman, Suzette, Neiman, Paul, Olsen, Anna, Perry, Suzanne, Plumlee, Geoffrey, Ralph, Martin, Reynolds, David, Rose, Adam, Schaefer, Kathleen, Serakos, Julie, Siembieda, William, Stock, Jonathan, Strong, David, Sue Wing, Ian, Tang, Alex, Thomas, Pete, Topping, Ken, and Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile, Chief Scientist, Cox, Dale, Project Manager, 2011, Overview of the ARkStorm scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312, 183 p. and appendixes [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/]. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. ii Acknowledgments This document reflects the contributions of a large interdisciplinary team of lifeline experts and agencies, including: California Department of Public Health: Clifford Bowen and Joseph Crisologo California Department of Transportation: Roy Bibbens, Mandy Chu, John Duffy, Jim Morris, Gustavo Ortega, Cliff Roblee, Earl Sherman, Loren Turner, and Bill Varley California Department of Water Resources: Bill Croyle, Sonny Fong, Andy Mangney, Michael Mierzwa, Ricardo Pineda, and Tawnly Pranger California Emergency Management Agency: Robert Mead California Environmental Legacy Project: Kit Tyler California Environmental Protection Agency: Duncan Austin and Antonia Vorster California Extreme Precipitation Symposium: Gary Estes California Geological Survey: Dave Branum and Ante Perez California Institute of Technology: Margaret Vinci California Polytechnic State University: Bud Evans, Robb Moss California State University at Sacramento Police: Kelly Clark California Utilities Emergency Association: Don Boland Coachella Valley Water District: Mike Herrera Contra Costa County Health: Eric Jonsson Contra Costa County Sheriff: Marcelle Indelicato and Rick Kovar East Valley Water: Gary Sturdivan Golden State Water: John Spitter Institute for the Future: Jason Tester Los Angeles City Building and Public Works: Tom Cotter Los Angeles City Bureau of Sanitation: Chuck Turhollow Los Angeles City Department of Water and Power: Craig Davis, Melinda Rho, Minas Sirakie, and Julie Spacht Los Angeles County Department of Public Works: Ben Willardson Los Angeles Department of Water and Power: Kevin Garrity Metropolitan Water District of Southern California: Christopher Hill and George del Toro Michael Baker Corporation: Travis Clark and Jagdeep Sidhu National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Rob Hartman and Alan Hayes iii Sacramento County Environmental Management Department: Val Sielal Sacramento County Water Resources: George Booth Sacramento Municipal Utility District: Selby Mohr San Bernardino County Department of Public Works: Erwin Fogerson San Diego County Water Authority: Lorrie Teates San Francisco Department of Public Works: Greg Braswell San Francisco Public Utilities Commission: Bruce McGurk San Joaquin County Environmental Health Department: Linda Turkatte San Jose Water Company: Jim Wollbrinck Santa Clara Valley Water District: Michael Hamer Southern California Edison: John A. Bocka, Tom Botello, Don Conner, and Roger Lee University of California at Davis: Robert Lim URS Corporation: Paul Jacks U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: Sean Mann U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Harry Allen, Pete Guria, Bruce Macler, Rich Martyn, and Dan Meer U.S. Geological Survey: Gerald Bawden, Sue Cannon, Rick Champion, Laura Dinitz, Dawn MacCarthy, and Tanja Wolfmeyer Water Forum: Mark Roberson iv Abstract The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical K Street, Sacramento, looking east flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. 1861-1862 Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane- force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. v The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude.
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