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Hurricane Flooding ATM 10 Severe and Unusual Weather Prof. Richard Grotjahn L 18/19 http://canvas.ucdavis.edu Lecture 18 topics: • Hurricanes – what is a hurricane – what conditions favor their formation? – what is the internal hurricane structure? – where do they occur? – why are they important? – when are those conditions met? – what are they called? – What are their life stages? – What does the ranking mean? – What causes the damage? Time lapse of the – (Reading) Some notorious storms 2005 Hurricane Season – How to stay safe? Note the water temperature • Video clips (colors) change behind hurricanes (black tracks) (Hurricane-2005_summer_clouds-SST.mpg) Reading: Notorious Storms • Atlantic hurricanes are referred to by name. – Why? • Notorious storms have their name ‘retired’ © AFP Notorious storms: progress and setbacks • August-September 1900 Galveston, Texas: 8,000 dead, the deadliest in U.S. history. • September 1906 Hong Kong: 10,000 dead. • September 1928 South Florida: 1,836 dead. • September 1959 Central Japan: 4,466 dead. • August 1969 Hurricane Camille, Southeast U.S.: 256 dead. • November 1970 Bangladesh: 300,000 dead. • April 1991 Bangladesh: 70,000 dead. • August 1992 Hurricane Andrew, Florida and Louisiana: 24 dead, $25 billion in damage. • October/November 1998 Hurricane Mitch, Honduras: ~20,000 dead. • August 2005 Hurricane Katrina, FL, AL, MS, LA: >1800 dead, >$133 billion in damage • May 2008 Tropical Cyclone Nargis, Burma (Myanmar): >146,000 dead. Some Notorious (Atlantic) Storms Tracks • Camille • Gilbert • Mitch • Andrew • Not shown: – 2004 season (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) – Katrina (Wilma & Rita) (2005) – Sandy (2012), Harvey (2017), Florence & Michael (2018) Hurricane Camille • 14-19 August 1969 • Category 5 at landfall – for 24 hours – peak winds 165 kts (190mph @ landfall) – winds >155kts for 18 hrs – min SLP 905 mb (26.73”) – 143 perished along gulf coast, – another 113 in Virginia Hurricane Andrew • 23-26 August 1992 • Category 5 at landfall • first Category 5 to hit US since Camille • affected S. Florida & Louisiana – 1.4 M families without electricity – 107,800 homes damaged – 49,000 homes destroyed – 250,000 people homeless – $30 B economic loss Hurricane Mitch • 23Oct – 6 Nov 1998 • Category 5 – for 33 hours – peak winds 155 kts for 15 hrs – min SLP 905 mb – wave hts ~44’ at some spots – up to 75” of rain fell! • devastated Central America – 11,000+ deaths (that many more missing) – worst loss of life (W. Hemis.) since 1780 storm – 2.4 million people affected – 124,068 homes damaged or destroyed • Honduras – 20% of population homeless – 70-80% of transport infrastructure destroyed – 1/3 of capitol (Tegucigalpa) buildings destroyed – 70% of crops destroyed ($900M) Cyclone Nargis • 2-3 May 2008 • Category 4 – peak winds 115 kts – min SLP 962 mb – up to 50” of rain fell! • Devastated Burma (Myanmar) – >146,000+ deaths (estimate) – >2M people homeless – >10B (U.S.$) damage – Irrawaddy delta very low elevation with a large population Typhoon Haiyan • 3-11 November 2013 • ‘Super typhoon’ Cat 5: 170+ knots 195 mph, (gusts est. to 235 mph) • Largest since Typhoon Tip (1979) • Possibly strongest ever at time of landfall (3 were stronger at sea) • >5,500 fatalities 2005 Atlantic season • 3 major hurricanes hit US • Largest number (26) of named storms in prior 156 years! (since detailed records kept) • Wilma set new Atlantic SLP record (882 mb) • Katrina (well forecast) was the most destructive natural event in US history (>$133B) Willma at max intensity. gif loop with Katrina images Hurricane Sandy • 24-30 October 2012 • Category 2 at landfall, hurricane force winds across 1,150 mile diameter. • Storm surge at high tide, flooded parts of NJ shore and southern parts of NYC. • Heavy precipitation (snow in WV) as tropical air interacted with cold arctic air. At landfall: hurricane status was changed to frontal system. • 159 fatalities (72 direct, 87 indirect) • ~$65B in losses Hurricane Harvey • 17 August – 2 September 2017 • First major hurricane to hit US in12 years • Category 4 at landfall – ‘tied’ for costliest with Katrina – Why? stalled near Houston for ~3 days – Dumping >40” of rain over a wide area – peak winds 130 mph – min SLP 937 mb (27.67”) – 106 perished in the US Hurricane Irma • 30 August – 13 September 2017 • Category 4 at US landfall – peak winds 175 mph. – Category 5 for 60+ hours – min SLP 914 mb (26.99”) at landfall – 92 perished in the US – >$53 B in damages • 2017 had 18 named storms (10 hurricanes, 6 category 3 or higher) in Atlantic Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico) • 16 Sept. – 2 Oct. 2017 • Category 5 • peak winds 175 mph (130 @ US landfall) • min SLP 908 mb • Devastated Puerto Rico • 2 weeks after Irma • >2,975+ Deaths (Puerto Rico Governor estimate) • 450,000-1.2 million without power ~ 4 months later • >91B (U.S.$) damage • Also hit several other islands Hurricane Michael • 7 – 12 October 2018 • Category 4 at landfall – peak winds 155 mph strongest winds at landfall since Andrew (1992) – min SLP 919 mb (27.14”) at landfall – 17 perished in the US – >$15B in damages – Photo shows a house on the beach built to withstand 200 mph winds and with breakaway walls on the ground floor. Atlantic Hurricanes affecting the US • Summarizing just a few is illustrative, many others have been devastating. • How to summarize? – By cost? – By storm intensity at landfall? Andrew (1992) vs Irma (2017) Video of the day: Hurricane Safety - 1 Katrina damage (Gulfport, MS) • Nova-Gilbert – Camille: Surge 1:38 – Camille: Survivor 3:06 Hurricane Safety - 2 • “Earlier we [had] evacuated for Hurricane Dennis and that was ‘nothing’. So about 30 of us decided to stay at the [apartment] complex and ride this one out… As it was getting dark we could see water coming under the front door. There was several inches in the room. Then a wave broke through the window and we decided we had to get out of there…As we swam away we could see the apartments pancake into the water… Insulation, wood, furniture, wires were everywhere…We grabbed what we could to stay afloat” AnotherKatrina Camille survivor, (1969) survivor? 2005 Reading: Hurricane Safety - 3 • FYI: Flyer prepared by NOAA: (no, you don’t have to memorize all this for the final) Test your understanding: Hurricane Safety - 4 • A mandatory evacuation is given for a hurricane approaching your area, you should: 1. quickly check that you have food & water to survive at home 2. board up windows and stay home to guard your stuff 3. put towels around the outside door jambs to keep out the water 4. all of the above 5. none of the above • Why was Katrina so bad? • The measure of its power was deceptive. – The strongest winds and (corresponding) central sea level pressure determine category, on that basis Katrina was category 4 at landfall (Mississippi mouth; cat 3, 127mph at Ms coast) – But, Katrina covered unusually large area, (earlier slide) – And, the large eye kept the winds down (recall the conservation of angular momentum argument). – So, peak winds (apparently) not as catastrophic as Andrew or Camille, but storm surge was larger than Camille in height, and it covered a wider area (longer length of shoreline). – Thus, Katrina’s total power was much larger than recent hurricanes. • Another key reason: There was a breakdown of emergency response – some examples: – Lessons & procedures from planning exercises were not followed: – Lessons from actual experiences were not heeded Camille & Katrina Storm Surge compared 6m B&W line: Camille surge 3m (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) Color squares: Katrina surge (preliminary estimates,Tim Marshall) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Are hurricanes getting worse? • Hard to know: atmosphere has inherent variability (Atlantic only shown) • Climate models predict…increase in top wind speeds (~10% over the next 25 years) Same or fewer number of storms. • No notable increase in total number of storms over the whole globe, but an observed increase in numbers of category 4 & 5 storms. • Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) used to measure net energy in tropical cyclones • ACE varies in basins, but no obvious trend What is it like? • MORE VIDEOS OF THE DAY • Wind – Hurricane Charley gas station (Hurricane_Charley_Gas_Station_Strea m.mnv) • Storm Surge – Typhoon Yuri (Typhoon_Yuri_Storm_Surge_Stream.w mv) • Both during Katrina storm either – Gulfport (Hurricane_Katrina_Stream.wmv – Biloxi (biloxi-civic-center- katrina2.wmv) • Flooding (next lecture) Lecture 18 Summary: • Hurricanes – Part 2 – Development stages: tropical disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm, then hurricane (alt: typhoon, or tropical cyclone) – Hurricanes typically ~500 km wide, sustained winds must be >64 kts – Hurricane intensity ranked by Saffir-Simpson scale: • Category 1 is weaker, 5 is strongest – Air spiraling in towards the eye wall gains speed by conserving angular momentum (radius * wind speed = a constant) – Highest winds where motion of storm adds to wind blowing around eye. – Damage from: 1) high winds, 2) flooding from heavy rain, 3) storm surge – Storm surge is high sea level at coast • water driven onshore by 1) high winds, 2) extremely low SLP, 3) coastline shape and magnified by 4) high wave heights and 5) timing of tides • usually most destructive element of hurricane undermines, & batters structures – Hurricane Safety – heed the warnings! Seek appropriate shelter, etc. – Hurricane trends • Number of most severe hurricanes has been increasing globally in last 30 years, though total number of hurricanes of all types has not changed. (apparently) • In the future? Some models predict generally stronger storms. Unclear if there will be more or fewer of them. Increasing wind shear may suppress storms in the Caribbean. Lecture 19 topics: • Hurricane flooding – (Reading) Lessons from Hurricane Katrina • From New Orleans • For us, here… • Non-Hurricane flooding Taiwan, after 80 inches of rain From Typhoon Morakot – Frontal cyclone (“atmospheric river” on W. coast) – Persistent convective weather patterns • Pakistan 2010 • US Midwest 1993, CO/NM 2013 – Flash flooding (severe thunderstorm Interstate 5, SW Washington, or MCC) Nov.
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